<p>作者：叶慧文 来源：华尔街新闻</p>
<p>周一的贵金属市场延续了周五的下跌趋势，现货白银暴跌 7%，现货黄金下跌 4.7%，短暂跌破 4500 美元大关。</p>
<p>当前形势非常明确：利润正在被兑现，杠杆资金被强制平仓。多家研究机构认为，尽管长期的地缘政治博弈和债务逻辑没有改变，但短期内不应试图在市场崩盘时捞 “血淋淋的筹码”。此次下跌是市场对新任美联储主席底线的考验，也是对之前疯狂投机情绪的剧烈修正。黄金和白银暴跌：不仅仅是 Warsh 的影响，而是去杠杆化的连锁反应。这次暴跌并不是由单一因素造成的，而是政策预期、交易拥堵和交易所干预的共振。1. 触发因素：Warsh 的提名，鹰派预期上升。华泰证券和天风证券指出，特朗普提名凯文·Warsh 为新任美联储主席是直接触发因素。Warsh 被视为 “鹰派”，其核心提案包括 “降息 + 缩表”。天风证券补充说，Warsh 在 2006 年至 2011 年任职期间被称为 “通胀鹰派”。市场对他上任后美联储独立性减弱的担忧导致美元反弹，流动性收紧的预期压制了贵金属。2. 机械性抛售：交易所协同 “降温”。华泰证券和财通证券强调了交易所干预的影响。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）和上海期货交易所（SHFE）几乎同时提高了保证金要求。CME 在 1 月底两次提高黄金和白银的保证金要求，将白银从 11% 提高到 15%；SHFE 也随之而来。财通证券补充了逼空和期权伽马压力的因素。截至 1 月 29 日，上海白银期货主合约的开盘与平仓比率达到了 8.75，显著高于同期历史平均水平；同时，大量散户投资者购买看涨期权，迫使做市商购买期货进行对冲，推高价格。一旦交易所加强干预（如 CME 六次提高黄金和白银的保证金要求），资金流出，这一正反馈循环瞬间逆转为崩溃。此外，白银 ETF 持有量的急剧下降也是调整的重要信号。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024520964?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024520964"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024521537?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024521537"/></p>
<ol>
<li>根本原因：极度拥挤的投机头寸和利润兑现。华泰证券指出，在崩盘之前，非金属（尤其是白银）是全球最拥挤的多头商品。天风证券的数据表明，黄金的 14 天相对强弱指数（RSI）在 1 月 28 日突破 90，这是本世纪首次，表明极端的 “超买” 状态。</li>
</ol>
<p>...</p>
<p>创始证券监测到，白银波动率指数在 1 月 29 日上升至 111，创下历史新高。财通证券认为，之前的快速价格上涨是由逼空和期权伽马挤压效应共同驱动的。一旦情绪逆转，去杠杆化过程将极为残酷。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522043?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522043"/></p>
<ol>
<li>宏观经济干扰：对人工智能科技股盈利能力的担忧。华泰证券还提到，微软和特斯拉等科技巨头的财报引发了市场对人工智能投资回报的担忧，导致美国股市风险规避情绪上升，一些资金出售贵金属以缓解股市流动性。</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>宏观经济干扰：对人工智能科技股盈利能力的担忧。</li>
</ol>
<p>市场展望：长期逻辑保持不变，短期波动不可避免。尽管近期出现了大幅下跌，但大多数机构认为贵金属的长期牛市逻辑并未从根本上逆转。1. 长期逻辑保持不变，短期波动在预期之中。天风证券认为，黄金将在短期内进入宽幅波动期，谨慎的买入情绪依然存在。然而，在全球竞争格局的关键时刻，全球央行对黄金的长期需求将继续作为价格的基本支撑，而 “黄金故事” 不会就此结束。财通证券也表示，长期逻辑并未逆转。国际市场对美国债务可持续性和美联储独立性的担忧将继续推动央行和私营部门增加黄金储备。2. 政策不确定性依然存在。华泰证券维持长期看涨观点，认为有色金属仍然是受全球制造周期、地缘政治重组和人工智能技术等因素驱动最显著的行业。创始证券的分析表明，未来市场趋势取决于多种因素的展开。关键变量包括：首先，大国竞争的长期性质及短期缓和的潜在窗口；其次，人工智能技术在推动全要素生产率增长方面的实际进展；第三，新任美联储主席沃尔什能否在内部政治阻力（如反对提名、内部分歧和前任政府的压力）下坚持其政策立场（如独立性和资产负债表缩减）。创始证券的综合分析得出，贵金属牛市的完全逆转需要同时满足多个严格条件（如全球生产力革命的快速发生、沃尔 Walsh 强有力的收紧实施而不扰乱市场，以及央行黄金购买的下降），这种情景发生的概率极低。因此，在经历一段调整和风险释放后，贵金属仍然具有显著的长期投资价值。建议关注业绩稳定、基本面优秀、增长潜力明确、估值合理的核心公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522401?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522401"/></p>
<h2>买入回调：不要急于抄底，等待波动性回归</h2>
<p>关于投资者最关心的问题 “何时入市”，大多数机构普遍建议耐心等待波动性回归。</p>
<ol>
<li>注意波动性的下降。华泰证券明确警告，短期 “买入回调” 需谨慎。由于市场波动性持续较高，去杠杆和泡沫消退仍在进行中。</li>
</ol>
<p>财通证券提供了具体的量化指标：建议等待隐含波动率降至 20% 以下，这可能是再次做多的好时机。2. 参考历史修正周期。财通证券回顾历史数据指出，近年来，黄金在达到峰值后，平均修正时间约为 18 天，修正幅度约为 8%。这为投资者提供了时间窗口参考。华泰证券建议等待市场波动性从极高水平显著下降（如黄金隐含波动率 &gt; 35%），并在关键支撑位（如黄金在 4700 美元/盎司）观察稳定信号，以避免在市场崩盘的高点买入。3. 注意现货与期货市场之间的价格差异风险。华泰证券特别提醒国内投资者，上海银还有进一步下跌的空间。当 1 月 30 日出现大幅下跌时，上海银的收盘价为每盎司 111 美元，而伦敦银已跌至每盎司 85 美元。这意味着上海银仍比国际市场溢价约 30%，应注意上海银价格进一步下跌的风险。4. 注意交割月的逼空风险。华泰证券提到，3 月是银的主要交割月。目前，CME 期货的总未平仓合约远高于可交割库存。需要关注交割月是否会出现逼空，这既是风险也是潜在的投机点。</p>

<p>贵金属市场出现显著下跌，白银下跌了 7%，黄金下跌了 4.7%。此次下跌归因于获利了结和被迫平仓，受到凯文·沃什被提名为新任美联储主席的影响，市场对加息的预期上升。交易所的干预和拥挤的投机头寸进一步加剧了抛售。尽管短期内波动性较大，机构仍对贵金属保持长期看涨的观点，认为中央银行的持续需求和地缘政治因素是支撑价格的关键因素</p>

<p>Author: Ye Huiwen Source: Wall Street News</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：叶慧文 来源：华尔街新闻</p>
</div><p>Monday's precious metals market continued Friday's downward trend, with spot silver plunging 7% and spot gold falling 4.7%, briefly breaking below the $4,500 mark.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一的贵金属市场延续了周五的下跌趋势，现货白银暴跌 7%，现货黄金下跌 4.7%，短暂跌破 4500 美元大关。</p>
</div><p>The current situation is very clear: profits are being taken, and leveraged funds are being forcibly liquidated. Multiple research institutions believe that although the long-term geopolitical game and debt logic remain unchanged, in the short term, one should not try to catch &#34;bloody chips&#34; during a market crash. This decline is the market testing the new Federal Reserve Chairman's bottom line and is also a violent correction of the previous frenzied speculative sentiment. Gold and Silver Plunge: Not Just Warsh, But a Chain Reaction of Deleveraging This plunge was not caused by a single factor, but rather by a resonance of policy expectations, trading congestion, and exchange intervention. 1. Trigger: Warsh's Nomination, Rising Hawkish Expectations. Both Huatai Securities and Tianfeng Securities pointed out that Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman was the direct trigger. Warsh is considered a &#34;hawk,&#34; and his core proposals include &#34;interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction.&#34; Tianfeng Securities added that Warsh was known as an &#34;inflation hawk&#34; during his tenure from 2006 to 2011. Market concerns about the Fed's independence easing after his appointment led to a dollar rebound, and expectations of tightening liquidity suppressed precious metals. 2. Mechanistic Sell-Off: Exchanges Collaborate to &#34;Cool Down&#34; Huatai Securities and Caitong Securities emphasized the impact of exchange intervention. The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) raised margin requirements almost simultaneously. The CME raised margin requirements for gold and silver twice in late January, increasing silver from 11% to 15%; the SHFE followed suit. Caitong Securities added the factors of short squeeze and option gamma pressure. As of January 29, the ratio of open to closed positions in the Shanghai silver futures main contract reached 8.75, significantly higher than the historical average for the same period; simultaneously, a large number of retail investors bought call options, forcing market makers to buy futures to hedge, pushing up prices. Once exchanges strengthened intervention (such as the CME's six increases in gold and silver margin requirements), funds flowed out, and this positive feedback loop instantly reversed into collapse. Furthermore, the sharp decline in silver ETF holdings is also an important signal of adjustment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前形势非常明确：利润正在被兑现，杠杆资金被强制平仓。多家研究机构认为，尽管长期的地缘政治博弈和债务逻辑没有改变，但短期内不应试图在市场崩盘时捞 “血淋淋的筹码”。此次下跌是市场对新任美联储主席底线的考验，也是对之前疯狂投机情绪的剧烈修正。黄金和白银暴跌：不仅仅是 Warsh 的影响，而是去杠杆化的连锁反应。这次暴跌并不是由单一因素造成的，而是政策预期、交易拥堵和交易所干预的共振。1. 触发因素：Warsh 的提名，鹰派预期上升。华泰证券和天风证券指出，特朗普提名凯文·Warsh 为新任美联储主席是直接触发因素。Warsh 被视为 “鹰派”，其核心提案包括 “降息 + 缩表”。天风证券补充说，Warsh 在 2006 年至 2011 年任职期间被称为 “通胀鹰派”。市场对他上任后美联储独立性减弱的担忧导致美元反弹，流动性收紧的预期压制了贵金属。2. 机械性抛售：交易所协同 “降温”。华泰证券和财通证券强调了交易所干预的影响。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）和上海期货交易所（SHFE）几乎同时提高了保证金要求。CME 在 1 月底两次提高黄金和白银的保证金要求，将白银从 11% 提高到 15%；SHFE 也随之而来。财通证券补充了逼空和期权伽马压力的因素。截至 1 月 29 日，上海白银期货主合约的开盘与平仓比率达到了 8.75，显著高于同期历史平均水平；同时，大量散户投资者购买看涨期权，迫使做市商购买期货进行对冲，推高价格。一旦交易所加强干预（如 CME 六次提高黄金和白银的保证金要求），资金流出，这一正反馈循环瞬间逆转为崩溃。此外，白银 ETF 持有量的急剧下降也是调整的重要信号。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024520964" alt="" original-src="https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024520964?x-oss-process=style/scale70"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024521537" alt="" original-src="https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024521537?x-oss-process=style/scale70"/></p>
<p>3. Root cause: Extremely crowded speculative positions and profit-taking. Huatai Securities pointed out that before the crash, non-ferrous metals (especially silver) were the most crowded commodities for long positions globally. Data from Tianfeng Securities shows that the 14-day RSI indicator for gold broke through 90 on January 28th, the first time this century, indicating extreme &#34;overbought&#34; conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>根本原因：极度拥挤的投机头寸和利润兑现。华泰证券指出，在崩盘之前，非金属（尤其是白银）是全球最拥挤的多头商品。天风证券的数据表明，黄金的 14 天相对强弱指数（RSI）在 1 月 28 日突破 90，这是本世纪首次，表明极端的 “超买” 状态。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>...</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>...</p>
</div><p>Founder Securities monitored that the silver volatility index rose to 111 on January 29, hitting a new historical high. Caitong Securities believes that the previous rapid price increase was driven by a combination of short squeeze and option gamma squeeze effect. Once the sentiment reverses, the deleveraging process will be extremely brutal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>创始证券监测到，白银波动率指数在 1 月 29 日上升至 111，创下历史新高。财通证券认为，之前的快速价格上涨是由逼空和期权伽马挤压效应共同驱动的。一旦情绪逆转，去杠杆化过程将极为残酷。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522043" alt="" original-src="https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522043?x-oss-process=style/scale70"/></p>
<p>4. Macroeconomic Disturbances: Concerns about AI Technology Stock Profitability. Huatai Securities also mentioned that the financial reports of tech giants such as Microsoft and Tesla have triggered market concerns about the return on AI investments, leading to a rise in risk-off sentiment in US stocks, with some funds selling precious metals to remedy stock market liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>宏观经济干扰：对人工智能科技股盈利能力的担忧。华泰证券还提到，微软和特斯拉等科技巨头的财报引发了市场对人工智能投资回报的担忧，导致美国股市风险规避情绪上升，一些资金出售贵金属以缓解股市流动性。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>4. Macroeconomic Disturbances: Concerns about AI Technology Stock Profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>宏观经济干扰：对人工智能科技股盈利能力的担忧。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>... Market Outlook: Long-Term Logic Remains Unchanged, Short-Term Volatility Inevitable Despite the recent sharp decline, most institutions believe that the long-term bull market logic for precious metals has not fundamentally reversed. 1. Long-term logic remains unchanged, short-term volatility is expected. Tianfeng Securities believes that gold will enter a period of wide-range volatility in the short term, with cautious buying sentiment. However, at a critical juncture in the global competitive landscape, the long-term demand for gold by global central banks will continue to serve as the fundamental support for prices, and the &#34;gold story&#34; will not end here. Caitong Securities also stated that the long-term logic has not reversed. International market concerns about the sustainability of US debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve will continue to drive central banks and the private sector to increase their gold reserves. 2. Policy uncertainty remains. Huatai Securities maintains a long-term bullish view, believing that non-ferrous metals remain the sector most significantly driven by factors such as the global manufacturing cycle, geopolitical restructuring, and AI technology. Founder Securities analysis suggests that future market trends depend on the unfolding of multiple factors. Key variables include: first, the long-term nature of great power rivalry and the potential short-term window for easing; second, the actual progress of AI technology in driving total factor productivity growth; and third, whether the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Warsh, can uphold his policy positions (such as independence and balance sheet reduction) despite internal political resistance (e.g., opposition to nomination, internal divisions, and pressure from the previous administration). Founder Securities' comprehensive analysis concludes that a complete reversal of the precious metals bull market would require the simultaneous fulfillment of several stringent conditions (e.g., a rapid global productivity revolution, Warsh's strong implementation of tightening without disrupting the market, and a decline in central bank gold purchases), a scenario with extremely low probability of occurrence. Therefore, after a period of adjustment and risk release, precious metals still hold significant long-term investment value. It is recommended to focus on core companies with stable performance, excellent fundamentals, clear growth potential, and reasonable valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场展望：长期逻辑保持不变，短期波动不可避免。尽管近期出现了大幅下跌，但大多数机构认为贵金属的长期牛市逻辑并未从根本上逆转。1. 长期逻辑保持不变，短期波动在预期之中。天风证券认为，黄金将在短期内进入宽幅波动期，谨慎的买入情绪依然存在。然而，在全球竞争格局的关键时刻，全球央行对黄金的长期需求将继续作为价格的基本支撑，而 “黄金故事” 不会就此结束。财通证券也表示，长期逻辑并未逆转。国际市场对美国债务可持续性和美联储独立性的担忧将继续推动央行和私营部门增加黄金储备。2. 政策不确定性依然存在。华泰证券维持长期看涨观点，认为有色金属仍然是受全球制造周期、地缘政治重组和人工智能技术等因素驱动最显著的行业。创始证券的分析表明，未来市场趋势取决于多种因素的展开。关键变量包括：首先，大国竞争的长期性质及短期缓和的潜在窗口；其次，人工智能技术在推动全要素生产率增长方面的实际进展；第三，新任美联储主席沃尔什能否在内部政治阻力（如反对提名、内部分歧和前任政府的压力）下坚持其政策立场（如独立性和资产负债表缩减）。创始证券的综合分析得出，贵金属牛市的完全逆转需要同时满足多个严格条件（如全球生产力革命的快速发生、沃尔 Walsh 强有力的收紧实施而不扰乱市场，以及央行黄金购买的下降），这种情景发生的概率极低。因此，在经历一段调整和风险释放后，贵金属仍然具有显著的长期投资价值。建议关注业绩稳定、基本面优秀、增长潜力明确、估值合理的核心公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522401" alt="" original-src="https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522401?x-oss-process=style/scale70"/></p>
<h2>Buying the Dip: Don't Rush to Catch a Falling Knife, Wait for Volatility to Return</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>买入回调：不要急于抄底，等待波动性回归</h2>
</div><p>Regarding the most pressing question for investors, &#34;When to enter the market,&#34; most institutions generally advise patience and waiting for volatility to return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于投资者最关心的问题 “何时入市”，大多数机构普遍建议耐心等待波动性回归。</p>
</div><p>1. Pay attention to the decline in volatility. Huatai Securities explicitly warns that short-term &#34;buying the dip&#34; requires caution. Due to persistently high market volatility, deleveraging and bubble deflation are still ongoing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>注意波动性的下降。华泰证券明确警告，短期 “买入回调” 需谨慎。由于市场波动性持续较高，去杠杆和泡沫消退仍在进行中。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Caitong Securities provides specific quantitative indicators: It suggests waiting for implied volatility to fall below 20%, which may be a good time to go long again. 2. Refer to historical correction cycles. Caitong Securities, reviewing historical data, points out that in recent years, after gold has peaked, the average correction time is about 18 days, with a correction range of about 8%. This provides investors with a time window reference. Huatai Securities suggests waiting for market volatility to fall significantly from extreme highs (such as gold's implied volatility &gt; 35%) and observing stabilization signals at key support levels (such as gold at $4700/ounce) to avoid buying at the peak of a market crash. 3. Be wary of the risk of price differences between spot and futures markets. Huatai Securities specifically reminds domestic investors that Shanghai silver has room for further decline. When the sharp drop occurred, the closing price of Shanghai silver on January 30th was $111 per ounce, while London silver had already fallen to $85 per ounce. This means that Shanghai silver still had a premium of about 30% over the international market, and the risk of a further decline in Shanghai silver prices should be noted. 4. Pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze in the delivery month. Huatai Securities mentioned that March is the main delivery month for silver. Currently, the total open interest of CME futures is far higher than the deliverable inventory. It is necessary to pay attention to whether a short squeeze will occur in the delivery month, which is both a risk and a potential point of speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财通证券提供了具体的量化指标：建议等待隐含波动率降至 20% 以下，这可能是再次做多的好时机。2. 参考历史修正周期。财通证券回顾历史数据指出，近年来，黄金在达到峰值后，平均修正时间约为 18 天，修正幅度约为 8%。这为投资者提供了时间窗口参考。华泰证券建议等待市场波动性从极高水平显著下降（如黄金隐含波动率 &gt; 35%），并在关键支撑位（如黄金在 4700 美元/盎司）观察稳定信号，以避免在市场崩盘的高点买入。3. 注意现货与期货市场之间的价格差异风险。华泰证券特别提醒国内投资者，上海银还有进一步下跌的空间。当 1 月 30 日出现大幅下跌时，上海银的收盘价为每盎司 111 美元，而伦敦银已跌至每盎司 85 美元。这意味着上海银仍比国际市场溢价约 30%，应注意上海银价格进一步下跌的风险。4. 注意交割月的逼空风险。华泰证券提到，3 月是银的主要交割月。目前，CME 期货的总未平仓合约远高于可交割库存。需要关注交割月是否会出现逼空，这既是风险也是潜在的投机点。</p>
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After the "epic shock" in gold and silver prices, is it time to buy the dip?

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在黄金和白银价格经历 “史诗级震荡” 之后，现在是逢低买入的好时机吗？