<p>关税和贸易战削弱了制造业</p>
<p>中国活动因春节假期而停滞</p>
<p>交易所股票自八月以来已翻倍</p>
<p>作者：Pratima Desai</p>
<p>伦敦，2 月 2 日（路透社）- 铜价在过去两天下跌近 9%，反映出市场回归现实，分析师表示，近期飙升至创纪录高位的走势超出了基本面，未来可能会有更多损失。</p>
<p>疲软的需求、库存上升以及供应增加的可能性都表明，上周四铜价创下每公吨 14,527.50 美元的历史高位是不可持续的，他们说。</p>
<p>价格已经远远超出了基本面，“被投资者涌入市场推高”，麦格理分析师艾丽斯·福克斯表示。“我们认为，去年市场大约有 60 万吨的全球过剩。”</p>
<p>福克斯表示，铜价仍然过高，要完全反映基本面，价格应低于每吨 11,000 美元。</p>
<h3>价格滑落至三周低点</h3>
<p>在上周的纪录高位，制造电线的金属价格远高于分析师认为需要激励未来几年新生产投资的水平。</p>
<p>周一，价格跌至三周低点（CMCU3），为 12,414.50 美元，在最近两个交易日中下跌了 9%，投资者在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普任命凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席后，美元上涨，导致投资者撤退。</p>
<p>宏观形势也削弱了铜多头的论点。特朗普的关税和贸易战在过去一年中对全球制造业活动施加了压力。</p>
<p>世界某些地区的工厂活动在一月份有所扩张，给政策制定者提供了一些保证，表明美国关税上升的影响目前已经结束，但增长是基于低基数，并且经历了几个月的活动萎缩。</p>
<p>中国的春节假期将在 2 月中旬使该国的工业活动停滞，而中国消费了全球超过一半的铜生产，预计今年约为 2600 万吨。</p>
<p>去年铜价的上涨主要是由于矿产供应的中断，包括印度尼西亚和智利的事故。然而，赞比亚和蒙古的矿山生产增加可能意味着今年供应会增加。</p>
<h3>市场并非 “历史性失衡”</h3>
<p>“虽然我们预测铜市场年复一年将出现更深的赤字，但我们仍然不认为市场在历史上失衡，” StoneX 分析师娜塔莉·斯科特 - 格雷表示。</p>
<p>“尽管供应风险确实超过了需求放缓……但基本面显然不支持当前的铜价。”</p>
<p>另一个疲软需求的迹象是伦敦金属交易所（MCUSTX-TOTAL）、上海期货交易所（CU-STX-SGH）和 Comex（HG-STX-COMEX）注册仓库的库存充盈，合计超过 930,000 吨，自八月以来已翻倍。</p>

<p>铜价最近下跌近 9%，反映出需求疲软和库存上升，分析师表示。价格飙升至创纪录高位被认为不可持续，价格需要跌破每吨 11,000 美元以与基本面相符。美国关税、贸易战以及即将到来的中国农历新年假期等因素正在导致价格下滑。尽管市场出现更深度赤字的预期，分析师认为市场并没有历史性失衡，目前的价格也不支持铜的价值</p>

<p>Tariffs and trade wars undermine manufacturing</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税和贸易战削弱了制造业</p>
</div><p>China activity to stall due to Lunar New Year holiday</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国活动因春节假期而停滞</p>
</div><p>Exchange stocks have more than doubled since August</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易所股票自八月以来已翻倍</p>
</div><p>By Pratima Desai</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Pratima Desai</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - A near 9% drop in copper prices in the last two days reflects a return to reality for a market whose recent surge to record highs had run ahead of fundamentals, analysts said - with more losses likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，2 月 2 日（路透社）- 铜价在过去两天下跌近 9%，反映出市场回归现实，分析师表示，近期飙升至创纪录高位的走势超出了基本面，未来可能会有更多损失。</p>
</div><p>Weak demand, rising stockpiles, and the likelihood of higher supplies all suggested copper’s rally to record highs at $14,527.50 a metric ton last Thursday was unsustainable, they say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲软的需求、库存上升以及供应增加的可能性都表明，上周四铜价创下每公吨 14,527.50 美元的历史高位是不可持续的，他们说。</p>
</div><p>Prices had moved way beyond fundamentals, “pushed up by investors crowding into the market”, said Macquarie analyst Alice Fox. “We think the market was in an around 600,000 ton global surplus last year.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格已经远远超出了基本面，“被投资者涌入市场推高”，麦格理分析师艾丽斯·福克斯表示。“我们认为，去年市场大约有 60 万吨的全球过剩。”</p>
</div><p>Fox said copper prices are still too high, and that to fully reflect fundamentals, they should be below $11,000 a ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>福克斯表示，铜价仍然过高，要完全反映基本面，价格应低于每吨 11,000 美元。</p>
</div><h3>PRICES SLIDE TO THREE-WEEK LOW</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>价格滑落至三周低点</h3>
</div><p>At last week’s record, prices of the metal used to make wiring for conducting electricity were well above the level analysts say is needed to incentivise investment in new production in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上周的纪录高位，制造电线的金属价格远高于分析师认为需要激励未来几年新生产投资的水平。</p>
</div><p>On Monday, prices hit a three-week low (CMCU3) at $12,414.50, a drop of 9% in the two most recent trading sessions, with investors retreating after U.S. President Donald Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve pushed up the dollar (.DXY) higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，价格跌至三周低点（CMCU3），为 12,414.50 美元，在最近两个交易日中下跌了 9%，投资者在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普任命凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席后，美元上涨，导致投资者撤退。</p>
</div><p>The macro picture also undermines the case for copper bulls. Trump’s tariffs and trade wars have pressured manufacturing activity around the world over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宏观形势也削弱了铜多头的论点。特朗普的关税和贸易战在过去一年中对全球制造业活动施加了压力。</p>
</div><p>Factory activity in some parts of the world expanded in January, offering policymakers some assurance the hit from higher U.S. tariffs has run its course for now, but the growth was from a low base and followed months of shrinking activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界某些地区的工厂活动在一月份有所扩张，给政策制定者提供了一些保证，表明美国关税上升的影响目前已经结束，但增长是基于低基数，并且经历了几个月的活动萎缩。</p>
</div><p>China’s Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February will also bring industrial activity to a standstill in the country which consumes more than half of global copper production estimated at around 26 million tons this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的春节假期将在 2 月中旬使该国的工业活动停滞，而中国消费了全球超过一半的铜生产，预计今年约为 2600 万吨。</p>
</div><p>Much of the gain in copper prices last year was due to disruptions to mined supplies, including accidents in Indonesia and Chile. However, production ramp-ups at mines in Zambia and Mongolia are likely to mean higher supplies this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年铜价的上涨主要是由于矿产供应的中断，包括印度尼西亚和智利的事故。然而，赞比亚和蒙古的矿山生产增加可能意味着今年供应会增加。</p>
</div><h3>MARKET NOT ‘HISTORICALLY OUT OF BALANCE’</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>市场并非 “历史性失衡”</h3>
</div><p>“While we forecast copper in a deeper deficit market year on year, we still do not see the market as historically out of balance,” said StoneX analyst Natalie Scott-Gray.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然我们预测铜市场年复一年将出现更深的赤字，但我们仍然不认为市场在历史上失衡，” StoneX 分析师娜塔莉·斯科特 - 格雷表示。</p>
</div><p>“And although supply risks do outweigh a demand slowdown… fundamentals certainly do not support copper at current levels.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“尽管供应风险确实超过了需求放缓……但基本面显然不支持当前的铜价。”</p>
</div><p>Another sign of weak demand are brimming stocks in London Metal Exchange (MCUSTX-TOTAL) , Shanghai Futures Exchange (CU-STX-SGH) and Comex (HG-STX-COMEX) registered warehouses, which at more than 930,000 tons combined have more than doubled since August.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个疲软需求的迹象是伦敦金属交易所（MCUSTX-TOTAL）、上海期货交易所（CU-STX-SGH）和 Comex（HG-STX-COMEX）注册仓库的库存充盈，合计超过 930,000 吨，自八月以来已翻倍。</p>
</div>

Copper's slide from record reflects reality of weak demand, rising stocks, analysts say

Reuters

美国铜指数基金 - Concierge Technologies

自由港迈克墨伦铜金矿

泰克资源

铜矿 ETF - GlobalX

江西铜业

iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF

力拓

ERO Copper

南方铜业

Sprott Copper Miners ETF

Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF

分析师表示，铜价从历史高位下滑反映了需求疲软和库存上升的现实