<p>私人信贷基金在 2024 年和 2025 年非常受欢迎，因为机构投资者和高净值零售投资者寻求更多风险和更高回报。然而，在过去几个月，这一趋势开始逆转。《金融时报》报道，私人信贷投资者在第四季度从一些最大的私人信贷基金中撤回了超过 70 亿美元。尽管这个金额相当可观，但与私人信贷行业估计的 2500 亿美元相比，撤回的金额仍然较小，而私人信贷基金的规模超过 5000 亿美元。以下图表来自《金融时报》，显示了私人信贷基金赎回请求的增加。</p>
<p>投资者的担忧最初是由 2025 年 9 月的 Tricolor 和 First Brands 破产引发的。更让他们担忧的是，美联储的降息降低了浮动利率债务的吸引力，而浮动利率债务是许多私人信贷贷款的基础。尽管出现了两起引人注目的违约，但仍有一些信号表明信用质量在恶化。为此，我们分享了以下《金融时报》文章中的几条引用。请记住，这些引用来自通过扩大私人信贷基金获利的管理者。</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>Ares 在 12 月告诉其基金客户，其投资仍然 “健康”，并承诺在 6 月之前维持其分红。</em></p>
<p><em>黑石表示，“投资者继续认识到私人信贷相对于公共固定收益所能提供的溢价”。</em></p>
<p><em>Cliffwater 的 Hasbrouck 表示，该公司 “对我们的表现能力并不担心，因为我们有大量流动性支持，我们认为季度之间情况会变得更好。”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>值得一提的是，银行流动性在第四季度显示出一些压力。因此，美联储在 2025 年 10 月停止了量化紧缩，并在 12 月开始了量化宽松。这一政策的逆转旨在解决因多次出现不规则的隔夜借贷利率而引发的流动性担忧。风险较高的信贷，如私人信贷基金，提供了市场风险承受能力和流动性的良好指标。如果当前趋势在 2026 年持续，这些赎回可能是更广泛流动性、金融和经济疲软的早期警示信号。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/private-credit-funds.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/private-credit-funds.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>今日关注</strong></h3>
<p><strong>收益</strong></p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-38-1024x705.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-38-1024x705.png"/></p>
<p><strong>经济</strong></p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-37-1024x194.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-37-1024x194.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>市场交易更新</strong></h3>
<p><strong><em>昨天，</em></strong> 我们回顾了市场的技术背景。然而，这也是一个新月的开始，而这个月恰好是全年较弱的月份之一。从季节性角度来看，2 月份的回报通常低于其他季节性强劲时期的月份，胜率大约为 50/50。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Seasonality-SP-500-Index-Average-Monthly-Returns.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Seasonality-SP-500-Index-Average-Monthly-Returns.png"/></p>
<p>好消息是，1 月的前五天和整个 1 月都是正面的，这对全年回报是个好兆头。当标准普尔 500 指数在前五天上涨超过 1% 且 1 月收盘为正时，市场在 92% 的情况下全年收高，自 1950 年以来的中位数增幅为 19.1%。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SP-500-Returns-First-Five-Days-1-and-a-Positive-January-Combo-small.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SP-500-Returns-First-Five-Days-1-and-a-Positive-January-Combo-small.png"/></p>
<p>虽然数据表明，任何短期的疲软可能是暂时的，但考虑到与长期均值的显著偏离，这些修正可能会更大。因此，更加密切地管理风险可能是明智的。贵金属投资者在周五领悟了 “风险” 的含义。讽刺的是，持有贵金属的理由是为了逃离股市，因为股市将要崩溃。</p>
<p>这可能是事实。然而，股市不会在一天内崩溃 30%。白银却崩溃了。</p>
<p>教训是管理好你的风险，不要过度扩张，控制你的杠杆。目标不是快速致富，而是生存于长期游戏中。</p>
<h3><strong>消费品上升，而原材料和工业品下滑</strong></h3>
<p>上周的波动打乱了许多行业和因素的绝对和相对分析评分及排名。如第一张图所示，来自 SimpleVisor，工业和材料行业极度超买，表现不佳，现在的交易价格更接近公允价值。在顶部图表的右侧，您可以看到这两个行业如何从右上角旋转，表明在相对和绝对评分上超买。同时，消费品行业继续攀升。请注意，公用事业行业在两个评分上终于开始上升。它是否会跟随消费品？</p>
<p>第二张图显示，上周的波动如何动摇了科技行业。标准普尔 500 指数和科技行业 ETF（XLK）中市值最大的三只股票跨越了超买 - 超卖范围。NVDA 上涨到超买，而苹果改善到公允价值，微软由于收益表现不佳，现在非常超卖。值得注意的是，黄金矿业因素在不到一周的时间内从极度超买跌至公允价值。这对于该分析来说是一个急剧的变化，但考虑到其价格在上周末下跌了 15%。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/xlb-xli-1024x512.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/xlb-xli-1024x512.png"/></p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/technology-1024x566.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/technology-1024x566.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>可能驱动 2026 年回报的市场周期</strong></h3>
<p>市场周期再次成为投资叙事的中心，随着我们迈向 2026 年。乐观情绪似曾相识，因为 2025 年的盈利表现良好，经济避免了衰退，大型科技公司推动了指数上涨。然而，这些胜利已经反映在价格中。随着我们进入 2026 年，估值已被拉高，错误的余地变得狭窄。然而，尽管分析师对今年非常乐观，但另一个强劲年份的理由在很大程度上依赖于历史模式。</p>
<p>让我们从总统周期开始。与总统日历相关的市场周期表明，新政府的第二年通常较为缓慢。自 1948 年以来，总统任期的第三年和第四年带来了最显著的回报，而第二年，即选举后的年份，表现较弱，收益温和且胜率较低。数据如下所示，尽管 2025 年的交易高于历史标准，但 2026 年可能不会如此幸运。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1024x831.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1024x831.png"/></p>
<p>自 1871 年以来，市场在其中 30 年中获得了收益，仅在 18 年中出现亏损，胜率约为 62%。虽然比 “抛硬币” 要好，但远低于第三年和第四年的胜率。2026 年市场的另一个潜在阻力是中期选举，这可能导致众议院或参议院控制权的变化，从而导致华盛顿的僵局加剧。</p>
<p>阅读更多…</p>
<h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/grondhog-day.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/grondhog-day.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>可能推动 2026 年回报的市场周期</p>
<p>Warsh 将担任美联储主席</p>
<p>Meta 和 Microsoft：优秀的盈利表现但结果不同</p>

<p>私募信贷基金曾因寻求更高回报而受到投资者的青睐，但现在正面临下降的趋势。在 2025 年第四季度，超过 70 亿美元从主要私募信贷基金中撤出，这引发了人们对破产和浮动利率债务吸引力下降的担忧。尽管如此，一些基金经理对他们的投资仍持乐观态度。美联储的政策逆转以应对流动性问题，可能表明更广泛的经济担忧。此外，市场趋势显示出潜在的短期疲软，强调了风险管理对投资者的重要性</p>

<p>Private credit funds were all the rage in 2024 and 2025 as institutional and high-net-worth retail investors sought more risk and higher returns. Over the last few months, that trend has started reversing. The FT reports that private credit investors pulled more than $7 billion from some of the biggest private credit funds in the fourth quarter. While sizable, the amount withdrawn is small compared to the estimated $2.5 billion in the private credit industry, of which private credit funds account for over $500 billion. The graphic below, courtesy of the FT, shows the pickup in private credit fund redemption requests.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信贷基金在 2024 年和 2025 年非常受欢迎，因为机构投资者和高净值零售投资者寻求更多风险和更高回报。然而，在过去几个月，这一趋势开始逆转。《金融时报》报道，私人信贷投资者在第四季度从一些最大的私人信贷基金中撤回了超过 70 亿美元。尽管这个金额相当可观，但与私人信贷行业估计的 2500 亿美元相比，撤回的金额仍然较小，而私人信贷基金的规模超过 5000 亿美元。以下图表来自《金融时报》，显示了私人信贷基金赎回请求的增加。</p>
</div><p>Investors’ concern was initially sparked by the Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies in September 2025. Adding to their worries, Fed rate cuts are reducing the appeal of floating-rate debt, which underpins many private credit loans. Despite the two headline defaults, there are a few signs of deteriorating credit quality. To wit, we share a few quotes from the FT article below. Bear in mind that the quotes are from managers who profit by growing their private credit funds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者的担忧最初是由 2025 年 9 月的 Tricolor 和 First Brands 破产引发的。更让他们担忧的是，美联储的降息降低了浮动利率债务的吸引力，而浮动利率债务是许多私人信贷贷款的基础。尽管出现了两起引人注目的违约，但仍有一些信号表明信用质量在恶化。为此，我们分享了以下《金融时报》文章中的几条引用。请记住，这些引用来自通过扩大私人信贷基金获利的管理者。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p><em>Ares in December told clients in its fund that its investments remained “healthy” and that it would commit to maintaining its dividend through June.</em></p>
<p><em>Blackstone said that “investors continue to recognise the premium private credit can offer versus public fixed income”.</em></p>
<p><em>Cliffwater’s Hasbrouck said the firm was “not worried about our ability to perform, knowing that we have a lot of liquidity behind us and we think quarter on quarter things will get better.”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p><em>Ares 在 12 月告诉其基金客户，其投资仍然 “健康”，并承诺在 6 月之前维持其分红。</em></p>
<p><em>黑石表示，“投资者继续认识到私人信贷相对于公共固定收益所能提供的溢价”。</em></p>
<p><em>Cliffwater 的 Hasbrouck 表示，该公司 “对我们的表现能力并不担心，因为我们有大量流动性支持，我们认为季度之间情况会变得更好。”</em></p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>It’s also worth adding that banking liquidity showed some signs of stress in the fourth quarter. As a result, the Fed halted QT in October 2025 and started QE in December. The reversal in policy is meant to address liquidity concerns sparked by numerous instances of irregular overnight borrowing interest rates. Riskier credits, such as private credit funds, provide a good gauge of the market’s risk tolerance and liquidity. If the current trends persist in 2026, these redemptions may be an early warning sign of broader liquidity, financial, and economic weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，银行流动性在第四季度显示出一些压力。因此，美联储在 2025 年 10 月停止了量化紧缩，并在 12 月开始了量化宽松。这一政策的逆转旨在解决因多次出现不规则的隔夜借贷利率而引发的流动性担忧。风险较高的信贷，如私人信贷基金，提供了市场风险承受能力和流动性的良好指标。如果当前趋势在 2026 年持续，这些赎回可能是更广泛流动性、金融和经济疲软的早期警示信号。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/private-credit-funds.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/private-credit-funds.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>What To Watch Today</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日关注</strong></h3>
</div><p><strong>Earnings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>收益</strong></p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-38-1024x705.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-38-1024x705.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Economy</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>经济</strong></p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-37-1024x194.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-37-1024x194.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Market Trading Update</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>市场交易更新</strong></h3>
</div><p><strong><em>Yesterday,</em></strong> we reviewed the technical backdrop of the market. However, this is also the beginning of a new month, which happens to be one of the weaker months of the year. From a seasonality perspective, the month of February tends to have lower returns than other months of the seasonally strong period, and has about a 50/50 win rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>昨天，</em></strong> 我们回顾了市场的技术背景。然而，这也是一个新月的开始，而这个月恰好是全年较弱的月份之一。从季节性角度来看，2 月份的回报通常低于其他季节性强劲时期的月份，胜率大约为 50/50。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Seasonality-SP-500-Index-Average-Monthly-Returns.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Seasonality-SP-500-Index-Average-Monthly-Returns.png"/></p>
<p>The good news is that both the first 5 days of January and the entire month were positive, which bodes well for full-year returns. When the S&amp;P 500 rises more than 1% in the first five days, and January closes in the green, the market has finished the year higher 92% of the time, with a median 19.1% gain since 1950.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，1 月的前五天和整个 1 月都是正面的，这对全年回报是个好兆头。当标准普尔 500 指数在前五天上涨超过 1% 且 1 月收盘为正时，市场在 92% 的情况下全年收高，自 1950 年以来的中位数增幅为 19.1%。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SP-500-Returns-First-Five-Days-1-and-a-Positive-January-Combo-small.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SP-500-Returns-First-Five-Days-1-and-a-Positive-January-Combo-small.png"/></p>
<p>While the data suggests that any near-term weakness will likely be temporary, given the more significant deviations from long-term means, those corrections could be larger. As such, it will likely pay to manage risk more closely. Precious metals investors learned the meaning of “risk” on Friday. The irony is that the rational for owning metals was to get out of the stock market because it was going to crash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然数据表明，任何短期的疲软可能是暂时的，但考虑到与长期均值的显著偏离，这些修正可能会更大。因此，更加密切地管理风险可能是明智的。贵金属投资者在周五领悟了 “风险” 的含义。讽刺的是，持有贵金属的理由是为了逃离股市，因为股市将要崩溃。</p>
</div><p>That may be true. However, the stock market doesn’t crash by 30% in a day. Silver did.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能是事实。然而，股市不会在一天内崩溃 30%。白银却崩溃了。</p>
</div><p>The lesson is to manage your risk, don’t get overextended, and control your leverage. The goal is not to get rich quickly; it is to survive the long game.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>教训是管理好你的风险，不要过度扩张，控制你的杠杆。目标不是快速致富，而是生存于长期游戏中。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Staples Assent While Materials &amp; Industrials Fade</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>消费品上升，而原材料和工业品下滑</strong></h3>
</div><p>Last week’s volatility shook up the absolute and relative analysis scores and placements of many sectors and factors. As shown in the first graphic, courtesy of SimpleVisor, Industrials and Materials, which were extremely overbought, have underperformed and are now trading closer toward fair value. Within the top graph, on the right side, you can see how both sectors have rotated from the top right corner, signifying overbought on relative and absolute scores. At the same time, the Staples sector continues to climb the charts. Note that the Utility sector is finally moving higher across both scores. Might it be following Staples?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周的波动打乱了许多行业和因素的绝对和相对分析评分及排名。如第一张图所示，来自 SimpleVisor，工业和材料行业极度超买，表现不佳，现在的交易价格更接近公允价值。在顶部图表的右侧，您可以看到这两个行业如何从右上角旋转，表明在相对和绝对评分上超买。同时，消费品行业继续攀升。请注意，公用事业行业在两个评分上终于开始上升。它是否会跟随消费品？</p>
</div><p>The second graphic shows how the volatility of the last week has shaken up the Technology sector. The three largest stocks by market cap in the S&amp;P 500 and the Technology sector ETF (XLK) span the overbought-oversold range. NVDA has risen nicely to overbought, while Apple has improved to fair value, and Microsoft, with its poor price performance due to earnings, is now very oversold. It’s also worth noting that the Gold Miner factor, which was extremely overbought, fell to fair value in less than a week. That is a sharp move for this analysis, but consider its price fell by 15% late last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二张图显示，上周的波动如何动摇了科技行业。标准普尔 500 指数和科技行业 ETF（XLK）中市值最大的三只股票跨越了超买 - 超卖范围。NVDA 上涨到超买，而苹果改善到公允价值，微软由于收益表现不佳，现在非常超卖。值得注意的是，黄金矿业因素在不到一周的时间内从极度超买跌至公允价值。这对于该分析来说是一个急剧的变化，但考虑到其价格在上周末下跌了 15%。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
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</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/xlb-xli-1024x512.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/xlb-xli-1024x512.png"/></p>
<p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
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</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/technology-1024x566.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/technology-1024x566.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>The Market Cycles Potentially Driving 2026 Returns</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>可能驱动 2026 年回报的市场周期</strong></h3>
</div><p>Market cycles are once again at the center of the investment narrative as we head into 2026. The optimism is familiar as earnings held up in 2025, the economy avoided recession, and big tech lifted the indexes. However, those victories are already reflected in the price. As we head into 2026, with valuations extended, the margin for error has narrowed. However, while analysts are very optimistic for this year, the case for another strong year leans heavily on historical patterns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场周期再次成为投资叙事的中心，随着我们迈向 2026 年。乐观情绪似曾相识，因为 2025 年的盈利表现良好，经济避免了衰退，大型科技公司推动了指数上涨。然而，这些胜利已经反映在价格中。随着我们进入 2026 年，估值已被拉高，错误的余地变得狭窄。然而，尽管分析师对今年非常乐观，但另一个强劲年份的理由在很大程度上依赖于历史模式。</p>
</div><p>Let’s start with the Presidential Cycle. Market cycles tied to the presidential calendar suggest the second year of a new administration is often slower. Since 1948, years three and four of a presidential term have yielded the most substantial returns, while year two, or the post-election year, has shown weaker performance, with modest gains and lower win rates. The data is shown below, and while 2025 traded above historical norms, 2026 may not be as fortunate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们从总统周期开始。与总统日历相关的市场周期表明，新政府的第二年通常较为缓慢。自 1948 年以来，总统任期的第三年和第四年带来了最显著的回报，而第二年，即选举后的年份，表现较弱，收益温和且胜率较低。数据如下所示，尽管 2025 年的交易高于历史标准，但 2026 年可能不会如此幸运。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
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</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1024x831.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1024x831.png"/></p>
<p>Since 1871, markets have gained in 30 of those years, with losses in only 18, resulting in a win rate of approximately 62%. While better than a “coin toss,” it falls well short of the win rate in years three and four. Another potential headwind for markets in 2026 is the midterm elections, which could potentially result in a change of control in the House or Senate, leading to increased gridlock in Washington.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1871 年以来，市场在其中 30 年中获得了收益，仅在 18 年中出现亏损，胜率约为 62%。虽然比 “抛硬币” 要好，但远低于第三年和第四年的胜率。2026 年市场的另一个潜在阻力是中期选举，这可能导致众议院或参议院控制权的变化，从而导致华盛顿的僵局加剧。</p>
</div><p>READ MORE…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读更多…</p>
</div><h3><strong>Tweet of the Day</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/grondhog-day.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/grondhog-day.png"/></p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>The Market Cycles Potentially Driving 2026 Returns</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能推动 2026 年回报的市场周期</p>
</div><p>Warsh To Head The Fed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Warsh 将担任美联储主席</p>
</div><p>Meta And Microsoft: Great Earnings But Different Results</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 和 Microsoft：优秀的盈利表现但结果不同</p>
</div>

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