<p>比特币在周一跌至年初至今的低点 74,500 美元，这一走势使其峰值下跌了约 38%。市场反应剧烈，交易者感受到压力，因为大资金的流出加速。</p>
<p><strong>资金流动与市场情绪</strong></p>
<p>根据报道，全球加密货币交易所交易产品上周出现大量赎回。美国大型现货 ETF 引领了抛售，这使得整体资金流动进入深度负值区域。</p>
<p>根据 Bitwise 的每周加密市场指南报告，比特币近期的下跌使其两年滚动的 MVRV z-score 降至历史最低水平，这一水平与低估相关，暗示该资产处于抛售状态。</p>
<p>情绪指标大幅下跌。报告指出，两年滚动的 MVRV z-score——一种比较市场价格与持有者平均成本基础的指标，经过波动性调整——达到了历史最低水平。这种数字表明广泛的抛售，许多投资者现在将价格视为困境。</p>
<p><strong>现货市场的购买兴趣</strong></p>
<p>在较短的时间框架内，出现了购买的迹象。日线相对强弱指数（RSI）跌入 20 以下。这一水平通常会伴随快速反弹。</p>
<p>在 Binance 和 Coinbase 等主要交易平台上的现货交易量数据显示，随着比特币反弹至约 79,420 美元，出现了净积极买入。</p>
<p>未平仓合约没有激增。资金利率保持负值。简单来说：人们在现货市场上买入，而不是大量进入杠杆多头，这减少了强制平仓的级联风险，从而使市场走势更加平稳。</p>
<p>投降与清算</p>
<p>报告称，上周多头头寸遭到重创，衍生品市场记录了近 20 亿美元的比特币多头清算。这种痛苦可以为新进入者清理场地。</p>
<p>与此同时，数十亿美元的空头头寸聚集在更高的价格水平附近，约在 85,000 美元，如果比特币上涨，这些空头可能会被击中。空头回补可能为反弹提供动力。市场结构现在呈现出价格背后强烈的卖压和前方真实的买入。支撑可能会在哪里保持</p>
<p>根据报告，购买兴趣与非常低的估值指标结合，可能会形成不对称交易。这意味着潜在的上行空间可能大于短期的下行风险，至少对于愿意接受波动的交易者而言。</p>
<p>历史上，上周 RSI 区域的下跌通常会导致大约 10% 的反弹，自 2023 年 8 月以来大多数情况下如此，尽管结果各异，且没有任何保证。一个安静但真实的结论</p>
<p>机构资金流动依然谨慎。像 Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 和 iShares Bitcoin Trust 这样的主要产品出现了大规模的资金流出，表明一些大型持有者已退缩。</p>
<p>然而，链上和现货交易量信号暗示，寻找便宜货的行为已经开始。短期内的走势可能会颠簸。希望获得市场敞口的交易者需要权衡低估值读数和购买的局部情况，以及如果情绪再次恶化，进一步疲软的非常现实的可能性。</p>
<p><em>图片来自 Vecteezy</em> <em>, 图表来自 TradingView</em></p>

<p>比特币已跌至年初至今的低点 74,500 美元，较峰值下跌 38%，主要基金出现了显著的资金流出。尽管加密货币 ETF 遭遇大量赎回，但在 Binance 和 Coinbase 等平台上出现了净买入的迹象，显示出现货购买的活跃。市场情绪依然谨慎，创纪录的低 MVRV z-score 暗示被低估。尽管多头头寸面临重大平仓，但潜在的空头回补可能会推动反弹。交易者必须应对波动性，并权衡风险与进一步下跌的可能性</p>

<p>Bitcoin slid to a year-to-date low of $74,500 on Monday, a move that wiped roughly 38% off its peak. Markets reacted sharply, and traders felt the pinch as flows out of big funds accelerated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币在周一跌至年初至今的低点 74,500 美元，这一走势使其峰值下跌了约 38%。市场反应剧烈，交易者感受到压力，因为大资金的流出加速。</p>
</div><p><strong>Fund Flows And Market Mood</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>资金流动与市场情绪</strong></p>
</div><p>According to reports, global crypto exchange-traded products saw heavy withdrawals last week. Big US spot ETFs led the selling, and that pushed overall fund flows into deep negative territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据报道，全球加密货币交易所交易产品上周出现大量赎回。美国大型现货 ETF 引领了抛售，这使得整体资金流动进入深度负值区域。</p>
</div><p>Based on Bitwise’s Weekly Crypto Market Compass report, Bitcoin’s recent drop pushed its two-year rolling MVRV z-score to a record low, a level tied to undervaluation and suggesting fire-sale conditions for the asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Bitwise 的每周加密市场指南报告，比特币近期的下跌使其两年滚动的 MVRV z-score 降至历史最低水平，这一水平与低估相关，暗示该资产处于抛售状态。</p>
</div><p>Sentiment gauges fell hard. Reports note that a two-year rolling MVRV z-score — a measure comparing market price to the average cost basis of holders, adjusted for volatility — hit its lowest reading ever. That kind of number points to widespread selling and prices that many investors now view as distressed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>情绪指标大幅下跌。报告指出，两年滚动的 MVRV z-score——一种比较市场价格与持有者平均成本基础的指标，经过波动性调整——达到了历史最低水平。这种数字表明广泛的抛售，许多投资者现在将价格视为困境。</p>
</div><p><strong>Buying Interest On The Spot Market</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>现货市场的购买兴趣</strong></p>
</div><p>On shorter time frames, signs of buying have appeared. The daily RSI plunged into the low 20s. This is a level that has often been followed by quick rebounds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在较短的时间框架内，出现了购买的迹象。日线相对强弱指数（RSI）跌入 20 以下。这一水平通常会伴随快速反弹。</p>
</div><p>Spot volume data on major venues such as Binance and Coinbase showed net aggressive buying as Bitcoin bounced back toward about $79,420.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Binance 和 Coinbase 等主要交易平台上的现货交易量数据显示，随着比特币反弹至约 79,420 美元，出现了净积极买入。</p>
</div><p>Open interest did not spike. Funding rates stayed negative. In plain terms: people were buying on the spot market rather than piling into leveraged long bets, which reduces the chance of a cascade of forced liquidations that can make moves messier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未平仓合约没有激增。资金利率保持负值。简单来说：人们在现货市场上买入，而不是大量进入杠杆多头，这减少了强制平仓的级联风险，从而使市场走势更加平稳。</p>
</div><p>Capitulation And Liquidations</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投降与清算</p>
</div><p>Reports say long positions were crushed last week, with close to 2 billion in BTC long liquidations recorded across derivatives markets. That pain can clear the field for fresh entrants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告称，上周多头头寸遭到重创，衍生品市场记录了近 20 亿美元的比特币多头清算。这种痛苦可以为新进入者清理场地。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, there are multiple billions of dollars of short positions clustered near higher price levels, around $85,000, that could be hit if Bitcoin climbs. Short-covering could add fuel to a bounce. Market structure now offers a mix of strong selling behind prices and real buying in front of them. Where Support Might Hold</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，数十亿美元的空头头寸聚集在更高的价格水平附近，约在 85,000 美元，如果比特币上涨，这些空头可能会被击中。空头回补可能为反弹提供动力。市场结构现在呈现出价格背后强烈的卖压和前方真实的买入。支撑可能会在哪里保持</p>
</div><p>Based on reports, buying interest combined with very low valuation metrics could create an asymmetric trade. That means the potential upside may be larger than the near-term downside, at least for traders willing to accept volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据报告，购买兴趣与非常低的估值指标结合，可能会形成不对称交易。这意味着潜在的上行空间可能大于短期的下行风险，至少对于愿意接受波动的交易者而言。</p>
</div><p>Historically, dips into the RSI zone seen last week have led to roughly 10% rebounds most of the time since August 2023, although outcomes vary and nothing is guaranteed.A Quiet But Real Conclusion</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，上周 RSI 区域的下跌通常会导致大约 10% 的反弹，自 2023 年 8 月以来大多数情况下如此，尽管结果各异，且没有任何保证。一个安静但真实的结论</p>
</div><p>Institutional flows remain cautious. Major products such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and the iShares Bitcoin Trust posted sizable outflows, signaling that some big holders stepped back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>机构资金流动依然谨慎。像 Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 和 iShares Bitcoin Trust 这样的主要产品出现了大规模的资金流出，表明一些大型持有者已退缩。</p>
</div><p>Yet, on-chain and spot-volume signals hint that bargain hunting has started. The near-term path will probably be bumpy. Traders who want exposure will need to weigh the low valuation readings and pockets of buying against the very real possibility of further weakness if sentiment deteriorates again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，链上和现货交易量信号暗示，寻找便宜货的行为已经开始。短期内的走势可能会颠簸。希望获得市场敞口的交易者需要权衡低估值读数和购买的局部情况，以及如果情绪再次恶化，进一步疲软的非常现实的可能性。</p>
</div><p><em>Featured image from Vecteezy</em> <em>, chart from TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来自 Vecteezy</em> <em>, 图表来自 TradingView</em></p>
</div>

Bitcoin Hits Year-To-Date Low Amid Heavy Outflows, Signs Of Spot Buying Emerge

- 比特币在周一跌至 $74,500，年初至今低点，累计下跌约 38%。
- 全球加密货币 ETF 上周出现大额提款，市场情绪大幅下降。
- 尽管有悲观情绪，短期内显示出买入兴趣，可能促成反弹。

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比特币在大量资金流出情况下达到年度低点，现货购买的迹象开始显现