<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/06/05/22/47/abstract-1438382__340.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/06/05/22/47/abstract-1438382__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>股票市场已经处于泡沫状态有一段时间了，这并不是什么秘密。问题是，它何时会破裂？对于那些坚定的买入持有者来说，这可能无关紧要。但对于我们其他想要保护过去三年多所获得收益的人来说，这非常重要。</p>
<p>我认为每个投资政策声明（书面的投资计划）都应该包括一个名为 “计划 B” 的部分，投资者在其中概述当牛市开始回落时将采取的步骤。你如何知道何时是时候？有许多指标需要关注，当这些指标开始一致时，就该采取一些防御措施了。</p>
<p>这可能是简单地增加现金配置，或者复杂地用衍生品对冲整个投资组合。我更倾向于简单的方法，但你如何进行防御完全取决于你。所以，让我们深入探讨这些泡沫破裂的指标，并注意它们现在告诉我们的信息。</p>
<p><strong>自满</strong></p>
<p>当投资者变得自满时，通常意味着美好的时光即将结束。这正是我们今天所处的情况。曾经被描述为对人工智能基础设施建设的投资者乐观情绪，现在已经演变为投资者的过度自信。周围有许多迹象，让我们逐一分析。</p>
<p><strong>狭窄的交易区间</strong></p>
<p>这张图表显示了标准普尔 500 指数上升动能的减缓。在去年的四月下跌后，市场迅速恢复。但自九月以来，市场一直在大约 5% 的狭窄区间内交易。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Narrowing-trading-range.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Narrowing-trading-range.png"/></p>
<p><strong>新高增量减少</strong></p>
<p>这张图表显示了标准普尔 500 指数新高增量的缩小。在强劲的牛市中，你会期望这些新高超过旧高 0.50% 或更多。但最近的新高增量却小得多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/New-High-increments.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/New-High-increments.png"/></p>
<p><strong>看跌/看涨比率</strong></p>
<p>在牛市中，乐观的投资者购买的看涨期权通常多于看跌期权。这使得比率保持在 1 以下。但是，当比率达到极低水平时，表明投资者不再对对冲下行风险感兴趣。</p>
<p>当前比率为 <strong>0.58</strong>。长期中位数比率为 <strong>0.70</strong>。这是投资者过度自信的经典迹象。</p>
<p><strong>市场下跌后的快速反弹</strong></p>
<p>在正常的上升趋势市场中，我们会期望看到买家进场 “买入回调”。然而，今天我们看到的是 “买入回调” 的极端表现。经典的例子是 2020 年 Covid 崩盘后的快速反弹。从那时起，投资者迅速买入回调，以防止其转变为修正。</p>
<p>有一些例外，比如 2022 年的熊市和 2025 年四月的下跌。但除此之外，我们没有看到超过 5% 的回调。这里有一张图表显示了过去 12 个月的回调和反弹。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Drawdown-chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Drawdown-chart.png"/></p>
<p><strong>债市警告</strong></p>
<p>今天普遍认为国债利率将走低。但事实并非如此。例如，10 年期国债的利率自去年十月底以来一直在缓慢上升。请参见下面的图表。</p>
<p>债市通常在股市之前感知到麻烦，忽视债市信号是自满的表现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/10yr-Treasury-rate-chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/10yr-Treasury-rate-chart.png"/></p>
<p><strong>FOMO（错失恐惧症）</strong></p>
<p>在牛市中，投资者可能会感到投资不足，并被对错失他人收益的恐惧所压倒。这导致了羊群行为，投资者无论市场多么高估，都会涌入拥挤的交易（例如人工智能）。</p>
<p>下面的图表显示了当羊群行为占据主导地位时，股票可能会出现的抛物线式上涨。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SNDK-parabolic-rise.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SNDK-parabolic-rise.png"/></p>
<p><strong>忽视宏观信号</strong></p>
<p>许多关于经济状况的报告好于预期。普遍认为我们将避免今年的衰退，GDP 增长将在年底开始回升。</p>
<p>但有一些指标在讲述不同的故事。例如，失业率正在上升，工作增长显著放缓。随着人工智能代理接管许多由薪资员工执行的常规任务，公司正在削减员工。</p>
<p>根据我几周前与一位首席信息官的对话，他告诉我，如果他完全实施人工智能来为公司编写代码，他可以裁掉 50% 的员工。</p>
<p><strong>国债熊市陡峭化</strong></p>
<p>在正常的上升趋势市场中，收益率曲线保持完整，短期和长期利率共同移动，保持期限风险。但当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，债券交易员称之为 “熊市陡峭化”。这是对经济和股市的看跌信号。</p>
<p><strong>底线</strong></p>
<p>如果你单独看这些指标，没有必要在它们开始发出麻烦信号时采取防御措施。但当大多数这些指标都在闪烁警告时，采取措施保护自己免受可能演变为重大市场下跌的风险是明智的。</p>
<p>我并不预测近期会出现熊市。事实上，我的熊市计量经济模型显示，我们在接下来的 6 个月内只有 27% 的机会会出现熊市。但我呼吁比正常情况下更加谨慎，以抵消自 2023 年以来支撑市场的极端乐观情绪。</p>
<p>自满情绪充斥我们周围，这使我们容易受到下行风险的影响。继续持有多头头寸，因为泡沫通常会持续比大多数人想象的更久。但要保持一些额外的现金（我现在有 10% 的现金）。并关注我在本文中讨论的指标。如果它们变得更糟，你可能需要对你的投资组合进行一些去风险操作。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>对市场和经济的思考</p>
<p>一分钟市场报告 - 6 月 8 日，星期日</p>
<p>一分钟市场报告 - 6 月 1 日，星期日</p>

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

美国大盘成长股 ETF - Charles Schwab

美国小盘价值股 ETF - Vanguard

<p>目前股市处于泡沫状态，引发了人们对何时会破裂的担忧。建议投资者在投资政策声明中准备 “计划 B” 以保护收益。潜在下跌的关键指标包括投资者的自满情绪、标普 500 指数的狭窄交易区间、新高增量的减少、低的看跌/看涨比率显示出过度自信、快速反弹的行情、债券市场的警告、投资者的 FOMO（错失恐惧症）以及忽视宏观经济信号。这些因素表明，市场显示出不稳定的迹象，因此需要保持谨慎</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/06/05/22/47/abstract-1438382__340.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/06/05/22/47/abstract-1438382__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>It's no secret that the stock market has been in a bubble for quite some time now. The question is, when will it burst? For you died-in-the-wool buy &amp; holders, it shouldn't matter. But for the rest of us who want to preserve what we've gained over the last 3+ years, it matters a lot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票市场已经处于泡沫状态有一段时间了，这并不是什么秘密。问题是，它何时会破裂？对于那些坚定的买入持有者来说，这可能无关紧要。但对于我们其他想要保护过去三年多所获得收益的人来说，这非常重要。</p>
</div><p>I believe that every Investment Policy Statement (a written investment plan) should include a section called &#34;Plan B,&#34; where the investor outlines what steps they will take when the bull market begins to roll over. How will you know when it's time? There are a number of indicators to watch, and when these indicators start to line up, it's time to play a little defense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为每个投资政策声明（书面的投资计划）都应该包括一个名为 “计划 B” 的部分，投资者在其中概述当牛市开始回落时将采取的步骤。你如何知道何时是时候？有许多指标需要关注，当这些指标开始一致时，就该采取一些防御措施了。</p>
</div><p>That could be something as simple as increasing your cash allocation, or as complex as hedging your entire portfolio with derivatives. I prefer the simple way, but how you play defense is entirely up to you. So, let's dig into these bubble-bursting indicators and take note of what they are telling us now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能是简单地增加现金配置，或者复杂地用衍生品对冲整个投资组合。我更倾向于简单的方法，但你如何进行防御完全取决于你。所以，让我们深入探讨这些泡沫破裂的指标，并注意它们现在告诉我们的信息。</p>
</div><p><strong>Complacency</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>自满</strong></p>
</div><p>When investors become complacent, it usually means that the good times are about to come to an end. This is the situation we are in today. What was once described as investor optimism about the AI infrastructure build has now morphed into investor overconfidence. There are signs all around us, so let's go through them one-by-one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当投资者变得自满时，通常意味着美好的时光即将结束。这正是我们今天所处的情况。曾经被描述为对人工智能基础设施建设的投资者乐观情绪，现在已经演变为投资者的过度自信。周围有许多迹象，让我们逐一分析。</p>
</div><p><strong>Narrow trading range</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>狭窄的交易区间</strong></p>
</div><p>This chart shows the deceleration of upward momentum in the S&amp;P 500. After the April swoon last year, the market recovered quickly. But ever since September, the market has been trading in a narrow range of about 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这张图表显示了标准普尔 500 指数上升动能的减缓。在去年的四月下跌后，市场迅速恢复。但自九月以来，市场一直在大约 5% 的狭窄区间内交易。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Narrowing-trading-range.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Narrowing-trading-range.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Diminishing new high increments</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>新高增量减少</strong></p>
</div><p>This chart shows the shrinking of incremental new highs in the S&amp;P 500. In a strong bull market, you would expect these hew highs to surpass the old highs by 0.50% or more. But the most recent new highs have seen much smaller increments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这张图表显示了标准普尔 500 指数新高增量的缩小。在强劲的牛市中，你会期望这些新高超过旧高 0.50% 或更多。但最近的新高增量却小得多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/New-High-increments.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/New-High-increments.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Put/Call Ratio</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>看跌/看涨比率</strong></p>
</div><p>In a bull market, optimistic investors buy more calls than puts. That keeps the ratio below 1. But, when the ratio reaches an extremely low level, it is a sign that investors are no longer interested in hedging the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在牛市中，乐观的投资者购买的看涨期权通常多于看跌期权。这使得比率保持在 1 以下。但是，当比率达到极低水平时，表明投资者不再对对冲下行风险感兴趣。</p>
</div><p>The current ratio stands at <strong>0.58</strong>. The long term median ratio is <strong>0.70</strong>. This is a classic sign of investor overconfidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前比率为 <strong>0.58</strong>。长期中位数比率为 <strong>0.70</strong>。这是投资者过度自信的经典迹象。</p>
</div><p><strong>Rapid snap-back rallies after market declines</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>市场下跌后的快速反弹</strong></p>
</div><p>In a normal, upward-trending market, we would expect to see buyers coming in to &#34;buy the dips.&#34; What we're seeing today, though, is dip-buying on steroids. The classic example of this was the rapid snap-back after the Covid crash in 2020. Since then, investors have been buying the dips quickly, before they can turn into corrections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常的上升趋势市场中，我们会期望看到买家进场 “买入回调”。然而，今天我们看到的是 “买入回调” 的极端表现。经典的例子是 2020 年 Covid 崩盘后的快速反弹。从那时起，投资者迅速买入回调，以防止其转变为修正。</p>
</div><p>There are exceptions, like the bear market in 2022 and the April swoon in 2025. But, aside from these, we don't see many dips of more than 5%. Here's a chart that shows the dips and snap-backs over the past 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有一些例外，比如 2022 年的熊市和 2025 年四月的下跌。但除此之外，我们没有看到超过 5% 的回调。这里有一张图表显示了过去 12 个月的回调和反弹。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Drawdown-chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Drawdown-chart.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Bond market warnings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>债市警告</strong></p>
</div><p>There is a widespread belief today that Treasury rates are headed lower. But this is not what's happening. For example, the rate on the 10yr Treasury bond has been inching higher since the end of October of last year. See the chart below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天普遍认为国债利率将走低。但事实并非如此。例如，10 年期国债的利率自去年十月底以来一直在缓慢上升。请参见下面的图表。</p>
</div><p>The bond market usually senses trouble before the equity market does, and ignoring the bond market signals is a sign of complacency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>债市通常在股市之前感知到麻烦，忽视债市信号是自满的表现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/10yr-Treasury-rate-chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/10yr-Treasury-rate-chart.png"/></p>
<p><strong>FOMO (Fear of missing out)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>FOMO（错失恐惧症）</strong></p>
</div><p>In a bull market, investors can reach a point where they feel under-invested and they can be overcome by a fear of missing out on the gains that others are making, This leads to herding behavior, where investors pile into crowded trades (like AI for example) regardless of how overvalued the market may be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在牛市中，投资者可能会感到投资不足，并被对错失他人收益的恐惧所压倒。这导致了羊群行为，投资者无论市场多么高估，都会涌入拥挤的交易（例如人工智能）。</p>
</div><p>The chart below shows what can happen when herding behavior takes over and sends a stock into a parabolic move higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下面的图表显示了当羊群行为占据主导地位时，股票可能会出现的抛物线式上涨。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SNDK-parabolic-rise.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SNDK-parabolic-rise.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Ignoring Macro signals</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>忽视宏观信号</strong></p>
</div><p>Many reports on the state of the economy are coming in better than expected. It's widely believed that we will avoid a recession this year, and GDP growth will start to pick up towards the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多关于经济状况的报告好于预期。普遍认为我们将避免今年的衰退，GDP 增长将在年底开始回升。</p>
</div><p>But there are some indicators that are telling a different story, For example, the unemployment rate is ticking higher and job growth has slowed significantly. Companies are slashing their workforce as AI agents take over many of the routine tasks that were performed by salaried workers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但有一些指标在讲述不同的故事。例如，失业率正在上升，工作增长显著放缓。随着人工智能代理接管许多由薪资员工执行的常规任务，公司正在削减员工。</p>
</div><p>Anecdotally, I spoke with a Chief Information Officer a couple of weeks ago, and he told me that he could lay off 50% of his staff if he fully implemented AI to write code for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据我几周前与一位首席信息官的对话，他告诉我，如果他完全实施人工智能来为公司编写代码，他可以裁掉 50% 的员工。</p>
</div><p><strong>Treasury Bond Bear Steepening</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>国债熊市陡峭化</strong></p>
</div><p>In a normal, upward-trending market, the yield curve remains intact, with short and long rates moving together and preserving term risk. But when long term rates are rising faster than short term rates, it's what bond traders call a &#34;Bear steepening.&#34; This is a bearish signal for the economy, and for the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常的上升趋势市场中，收益率曲线保持完整，短期和长期利率共同移动，保持期限风险。但当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，债券交易员称之为 “熊市陡峭化”。这是对经济和股市的看跌信号。</p>
</div><p><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>底线</strong></p>
</div><p>if you look at any of these indicators in isolation, there is no need to play defense when they start to signal trouble. But when the preponderance of these indicators are flashing warnings, it's only prudent to take steps - however small - to protect against what could turn into a major market decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你单独看这些指标，没有必要在它们开始发出麻烦信号时采取防御措施。但当大多数这些指标都在闪烁警告时，采取措施保护自己免受可能演变为重大市场下跌的风险是明智的。</p>
</div><p>I am not calling for a bear market in the immediate future. In fact, my bear market econometric model says we only have a 27% chance that a bear market will begin sometime within the next 6 months. But, I am calling for more caution than normal, to counteract the extreme bullishness that has kept this market going since 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我并不预测近期会出现熊市。事实上，我的熊市计量经济模型显示，我们在接下来的 6 个月内只有 27% 的机会会出现熊市。但我呼吁比正常情况下更加谨慎，以抵消自 2023 年以来支撑市场的极端乐观情绪。</p>
</div><p>Complacency is all around us, and that makes us vulnerable to downside risk. Stay long, because bubbles usually last longer that most people would think. But keep some extra cash on hand (I have 10% in cash right now). And keep an eye on the indicators I discussed in this article. If they get even worse, you might want to do a little de-risking of your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自满情绪充斥我们周围，这使我们容易受到下行风险的影响。继续持有多头头寸，因为泡沫通常会持续比大多数人想象的更久。但要保持一些额外的现金（我现在有 10% 的现金）。并关注我在本文中讨论的指标。如果它们变得更糟，你可能需要对你的投资组合进行一些去风险操作。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Thoughts On The Market And The Economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对市场和经济的思考</p>
</div><p>The One-Minute Market Report - Sunday, June 8</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一分钟市场报告 - 6 月 8 日，星期日</p>
</div><p>The One-Minute Market Report - Sunday, June 1</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一分钟市场报告 - 6 月 1 日，星期日</p>
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The Stock Market Bubble Is About To Burst

- 目前股市已处于泡沫状态，投资者需谨慎应对。  
- 观察到投资者过于自信，市场人士对风险忽视增加。  
- 提倡在投资策略中加入 “计划 B”，以应对可能的市场下滑。

股市泡沫是否即将破裂