<p>比特币 [BTC] 目前正处于近年来最不透明的交易阶段之一。价格走势一再无视持续反弹的预期。</p>
<p>从最高点的 126,000 美元，BTC 下跌了 48,000 美元至 78,000 美元，这一变动反映出市场情绪的极度悲观。</p>
<p>尽管如此，现货投资者仍然是短期和长期市场方向最可靠的指标之一，特别是在情绪开始转变的时期。</p>
<h2><strong>现货市场疲软持续</strong></h2>
<p>比特币现在已经连续五个月记录负的现货净流出，没有出现有意义的看涨中断。这种持续的压力反映了资本的广泛收缩，因为投资者稳步减少风险敞口。</p>
<p>自 10 月 10 日开始的下跌以来，现货交易量已经崩溃。Binance 的数据进一步证实了这一趋势；10 月份的现货交易量接近 2000 亿美元，但此后已降至约 1040 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0611.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0611.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Alphractal。</p>
<p>现货交易者是市场动量的关键来源。当他们的活动急剧下降时，这表明信心减弱和需求低迷，这种情况往往对价格产生重大压力。</p>
<p>资本外流在稳定币市场中也显而易见。稳定币的市值已下降约 100 亿美元，表明投资者不愿意将资金停留在链上。</p>
<p>稳定币通常在波动时期充当缓冲，允许资本在条件稳定后重新进入。当前的下跌表明投资者要么在其他地方重新配置，要么完全退出市场。</p>
<p>衍生品市场也反映了这种撤退。10 月的崩盘触发了未平仓合约的急剧收缩，单日下降约 80 亿美元，相当于当时约 70,000 个 BTC。这突显了杠杆和风险偏好的广泛降低。</p>
<h2><strong>现货活动能否推动短期反弹？</strong></h2>
<p>尽管资本收缩和动量减弱，现货市场数据提供了一个狭窄但显著的潜在短期反弹基础。</p>
<p>最近的指标指向比特币可能的短期上行走势。现货交易所的净流入流出，衡量买方与卖方活动的差异，支持这一观点。</p>
<p>从 1 月 19 日到 1 月 26 日，尽管价格压力持续，买家仍然积累了约 21 亿美元的比特币。这种稳定的积累提供了需求可能悄然回归的早期迹象。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0610-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0610-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Alphractal</p>
<p>额外的确认来自现货买方 CVD（累积成交量差）。在过去三个月中，该指标衡量激进现货买入与卖出的差异，已转为正值。</p>
<p>这一变化表明，尽管比特币自 12 月以来表现疲弱，买家在现货交易量中占据了更大份额。如果这一趋势持续，情绪可能逐渐倾向于他们，铺平了在信心改善后至少短期反弹的道路。</p>
<h2><strong>为何信号仍然脆弱</strong></h2>
<p>然而，这些信号仍不足以支持持续的复苏。</p>
<p>尽管最近的现货活动指向可能促成反弹的条件，但整体参与仍然稀薄。CryptoQuant 的零售交易频率数据显示，市场处于中性区域，买方和卖方均未表现出明显的主导地位。</p>
<p>这种中立性意味着交易活动过于有限，无法对价格方向产生实质性影响。历史上，当现货零售活动图表上出现绿色点时，通常会出现更强的反弹信号，标志着在下跌后重新出现的购买兴趣。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0609-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0609-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Alphractal</p>
<p>过去的实例表明，这种形态通常会在上涨走势之前出现。虽然不是明确的信号，但它仍然是跟踪现货市场强度是否足以挑战当前看跌趋势的有用框架。</p>
<hr/>
<p>最终思考</p>
<ul>
<li><em>自 2025 年 10 月崩盘以来，现货市场的活动显著减少，交易量几乎减半，降至约 1040 亿美元。</em></li>
<li><em>在主导的看跌叙事之下，短期现货投资者可能正在悄然塑造反弹的条件。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特币（BTC）目前正经历一个脆弱的复苏阶段，交易价格约为 78,000 美元，较其峰值 126,000 美元大幅下跌。市场情绪依然悲观，连续五个月出现负的现货净流入，交易量从 2000 亿美元下降至 1040 亿美元。尽管如此，近期买家累计购买了价值 21 亿美元的比特币，显示出短期复苏的潜在迹象。然而，整体市场参与度较低，这表明任何反弹可能都是有限且脆弱的</p>

<p>Bitcoin [BTC] is currently trading in one of its most opaque phases in recent years. Price action has repeatedly invalidated expectations of a sustained rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币 [BTC] 目前正处于近年来最不透明的交易阶段之一。价格走势一再无视持续反弹的预期。</p>
</div><p>From its peak of $126,000, BTC declined by $48,000 to $78,000, a move that reflects just how deeply bearish sentiment has taken hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从最高点的 126,000 美元，BTC 下跌了 48,000 美元至 78,000 美元，这一变动反映出市场情绪的极度悲观。</p>
</div><p>Even so, spot investors remain one of the most reliable indicators of both short- and long-term market direction, particularly during periods when sentiment begins to shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，现货投资者仍然是短期和长期市场方向最可靠的指标之一，特别是在情绪开始转变的时期。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Spot market weakness persists</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>现货市场疲软持续</strong></h2>
</div><p>BTChas now recorded five consecutive months of negative spot netflows, with no meaningful bullish interruption. This sustained pressure reflects a broader contraction in capital, as investors steadily reduce exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币现在已经连续五个月记录负的现货净流出，没有出现有意义的看涨中断。这种持续的压力反映了资本的广泛收缩，因为投资者稳步减少风险敞口。</p>
</div><p>Spot trading volume has collapsed since the drawdown that began on the 10th of October. Binance data reinforces the trend; spot volume stood near $200 billion in October but has since fallen to about $104 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 10 月 10 日开始的下跌以来，现货交易量已经崩溃。Binance 的数据进一步证实了这一趋势；10 月份的现货交易量接近 2000 亿美元，但此后已降至约 1040 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0611.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0611.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Alphractal。</p>
</div><p>Spot traders are a key source of market momentum. When their activity declines sharply, it signals weakening conviction and subdued demand, conditions that tend to weigh heavily on price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货交易者是市场动量的关键来源。当他们的活动急剧下降时，这表明信心减弱和需求低迷，这种情况往往对价格产生重大压力。</p>
</div><p>Capital outflows are also evident in stablecoin markets. Stablecoin capitalization has declined by approximately $10 billion, pointing to reduced investor willingness to keep funds parked on-chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资本外流在稳定币市场中也显而易见。稳定币的市值已下降约 100 亿美元，表明投资者不愿意将资金停留在链上。</p>
</div><p>Stablecoins typically act as a buffer during volatile periods, allowing capital to re-enter once conditions stabilize. The current drawdown suggests investors are either reallocating elsewhere or exiting the market altogether.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稳定币通常在波动时期充当缓冲，允许资本在条件稳定后重新进入。当前的下跌表明投资者要么在其他地方重新配置，要么完全退出市场。</p>
</div><p>Derivatives markets have mirrored this retreat. The October crash triggered a sharp contraction in open interest, with a single-day decline of roughly $8 billion, equivalent to about 70,000 BTC at the time. This highlights a broad reduction in leverage and risk appetite.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衍生品市场也反映了这种撤退。10 月的崩盘触发了未平仓合约的急剧收缩，单日下降约 80 亿美元，相当于当时约 70,000 个 BTC。这突显了杠杆和风险偏好的广泛降低。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Can spot activity fuel a short-term rebound?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>现货活动能否推动短期反弹？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Despite shrinking capital and muted momentum, spot market data offers a narrow but notable basis for a potential short-term rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管资本收缩和动量减弱，现货市场数据提供了一个狭窄但显著的潜在短期反弹基础。</p>
</div><p>Recent indicators point to a potential short‑term upside move for Bitcoin. Spot exchange netflows, which measure inflows and outflows to gauge buyer versus seller activity, support this view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的指标指向比特币可能的短期上行走势。现货交易所的净流入流出，衡量买方与卖方活动的差异，支持这一观点。</p>
</div><p>From January 19 to January 26, buyers accumulated approximately $2.1 billion worth of Bitcoin despite ongoing price pressure. This steady accumulation offers early signs that demand may be quietly returning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 1 月 19 日到 1 月 26 日，尽管价格压力持续，买家仍然积累了约 21 亿美元的比特币。这种稳定的积累提供了需求可能悄然回归的早期迹象。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0610-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0610-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>Additional confirmation comes from the Spot Taker CVD (cumulative volume delta). Over the past three months, the metric, which measures the difference between aggressive spot buying and selling, has turned positive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>额外的确认来自现货买方 CVD（累积成交量差）。在过去三个月中，该指标衡量激进现货买入与卖出的差异，已转为正值。</p>
</div><p>This shift indicates that, despite Bitcoin’s weak performance since December, buyers have accounted for a larger share of spot volume. If this trend persists, sentiment could gradually tilt in their favor, setting the stage for at least a short-term rebound once confidence improves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变化表明，尽管比特币自 12 月以来表现疲弱，买家在现货交易量中占据了更大份额。如果这一趋势持续，情绪可能逐渐倾向于他们，铺平了在信心改善后至少短期反弹的道路。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Why the signal remains fragile</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>为何信号仍然脆弱</strong></h2>
</div><p>Still, these signals remain insufficient to support a sustained recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些信号仍不足以支持持续的复苏。</p>
</div><p>While recent spot activity points to conditions that could enable a rebound, overall participation remains thin. Retail trading frequency data from CryptoQuant indicates that the market is firmly in a neutral zone, with neither buyers nor sellers exerting clear dominance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管最近的现货活动指向可能促成反弹的条件，但整体参与仍然稀薄。CryptoQuant 的零售交易频率数据显示，市场处于中性区域，买方和卖方均未表现出明显的主导地位。</p>
</div><p>This neutrality implies that trading activity is too limited to influence price direction materially. Historically, stronger rebound signals emerge when a green dot appears on the spot retail activity chart, marking renewed buying interest after a drawdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种中立性意味着交易活动过于有限，无法对价格方向产生实质性影响。历史上，当现货零售活动图表上出现绿色点时，通常会出现更强的反弹信号，标志着在下跌后重新出现的购买兴趣。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0609-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0609-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>Past instances show that such formations often precede upside moves. While not a definitive signal, it remains a useful framework for tracking whether spot market strength is building enough to challenge the prevailing bearish trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去的实例表明，这种形态通常会在上涨走势之前出现。虽然不是明确的信号，但它仍然是跟踪现货市场强度是否足以挑战当前看跌趋势的有用框架。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p>Final Thoughts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终思考</p>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Since the October 2025 crash, activity in the spot market has thinned considerably, with trading volume sliding nearly in half to about $104 billion.</em></li>
<li><em>Beneath the dominant bearish narrative, short-term spot investors may be quietly shaping conditions for a rebound.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>自 2025 年 10 月崩盘以来，现货市场的活动显著减少，交易量几乎减半，降至约 1040 亿美元。</em></li>
<li><em>在主导的看跌叙事之下，短期现货投资者可能正在悄然塑造反弹的条件。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特币：分析为何 BTC 的复苏几率依然显得脆弱