<p>（重复 2 月 3 日的报道，文本没有变化）</p>
<p>市场预计 2026 年收益率曲线将更加陡峭</p>
<p>紧张局势可能围绕美联储资产负债表和长期利率展开</p>
<p>对 Warsh 观点的不确定性可能会提高利率波动性</p>
<p>新任美联储主席预计将在某个时刻恢复鹰派本能</p>
<p>作者：Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss</p>
<p>纽约，2 月 3 日（路透社）- 投资者正在加大对长期国债收益率上升和收益率曲线陡峭化的押注，因为新任美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 预计将推动降息，同时缩减美国中央银行的资产负债表。Warsh 对大幅缩减美联储资产负债表的偏好（目前约为 6.59 万亿美元）意味着政府对国债的实质性需求将减少，这一举动将收紧金融条件，因为中央银行不再向市场提供流动性。美联储减少债券再投资和购买将扩大市场上的国债供应，这往往会推高长期收益率，从而使曲线变陡。</p>
<p>“缩减资产负债表的主要结果将是使收益率曲线更正常地呈现正斜率，正如历史上金融危机后所有干预措施之前的情况，” 芝加哥 North Star Investment Management Corp 的首席投资官 Eric Kuby 表示。</p>
<p>收益率曲线——短期和长期利率之间的差距，是经济预期的一个关键晴雨表——通常在投资者对通货膨胀和财政赤字扩大的担忧加剧时变得更加陡峭。较高的长期收益率直接影响整个经济的借贷成本：抵押贷款、公司债务、杠杆贷款和股权融资的成本都变得更高。同时，预计在 Warsh 的领导下，短期收益率将保持低迷，进一步加剧曲线的陡峭程度。尽管他在 2006 年至 2011 年担任美联储理事期间以鹰派著称，但 Warsh 最近的立场更为温和，与特朗普总统对近期降息的预期相一致。在特朗普提名 Warsh 接替美联储主席鲍威尔之前，国债收益率曲线已经在陡峭化——长期利率高于短期利率。这种陡峭化是由于对通货膨胀的焦虑和对财政赤字上升将导致更多债务发行和收益率飙升的担忧。周二，国债 2⁄10 年收益率曲线略微趋平。一天前，它达到了 72.70 个基点（bps）（US2US10=TWEB），是自 4 月 9 日以来的最高水平，那时特朗普宣布对来自全球贸易伙伴的产品征收关税，正值 “解放日” 一周。Warsh 目前是斯坦福大学胡佛研究所的访问学者，他表示，人工智能推动的生产力提升总体上具有通货紧缩影响，使美联储能够放松货币政策。美国利率期货显示，交易员仍预计今年将有大约两次四分之一百分点的降息，第一次将在 6 月 16-17 日的会议上进行，反映出对 Warsh 领导的美联储将专注于正常化借贷成本的信心。</p>
<p>鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将在 5 月中旬结束，而 Warsh 仍需得到美国参议院的确认。然而，分析师强调，缩减美联储资产负债表与实现特朗普政府所寻求的长期利率降低之间的紧张关系。如果资产负债表收缩而长期利率保持高位，期限溢价——投资者为承担期限风险而要求的额外收益——可能会保持粘性或进一步上升，这可能会使通过传统降息来放松金融条件的努力变得复杂。</p>
<p>“这是一项难以实施的政策。你有一项政策是以温和的方式进行，比如降息，而另一项政策则导致利率上升，比如缩减资产负债表，” 宾夕法尼亚州伯文的 Bryn Mawr Trust 固定收益主管 Jim Barnes 表示。</p>
<p>“它们朝着相反的方向发展。你想同时降息和缩减资产负债表。但你如何将其付诸实践？这就是问题所在。”</p>
<h3>技术问题，利率波动性</h3>
<p>纽约 Wrightson-ICAP 货币市场研究公司的首席经济学家 Lou Crandall 表示，任何减少美联储资产的计划都将涉及许多复杂的技术问题——特别是与银行流动性监管相关的问题——并需要时间。市场参与者还预计利率波动性将上升，一些人认为 Warsh 作为美联储主席可能会引发争议，因为他过去对中央银行的批评，TD Securities 美国宏观策略主管 Oscar Munoz 表示，并补充说这种情况可能会使中央银行的政策制定委员会的一些成员感到疏远。“我们还发现，前任理事在政策优先级上显著 180 度转变后更难以捉摸，因为他在全球金融危机期间曾持有非常鹰派的立场，” Munoz 补充道。</p>
<p>然而，债券市场参与者预计 Warsh 将在某个时刻恢复他的鹰派本能，进一步推动利率波动性上升。</p>
<p>蒙特利尔 BCA 的副策略师 Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier 表示，尽管 Warsh 指出由人工智能驱动的生产力提升是 “无需担心未来通货膨胀” 的原因，但更高的生产力意味着更高的中性联邦基金利率。MOVE 指数（.MOVE），一个衡量利率波动性的指标，过去几个月一直在下降，尚未反映 Warsh 即将担任美联储主席的情况。该指数最后一次为 59.30，低于 11 月中旬的 84.32。</p>
<p>“只有时间能证明 Warsh 作为主席的表现。他在担任理事会成员期间是一个通货膨胀鹰派，” 康涅狄格州斯坦福的 Carnegie Investment Counsel 投资组合经理 Benjamin Connard 表示。</p>
<p>“他最近改变了口风，怀疑论者可能会说这只是为了确保提名。……利率由大多数人决定，因此沃什一个人无法降低利率。对于长期投资者来说，只要对美联储整体仍然保持信心，这一提名不应改变你的看法。”</p>

7-10 年美国国债 ETF - iShares

20 年期以上美国国债 3 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

美国短期国债指数 ETF - iShares

<p>(Repeats February 3 story with no changes to text)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（重复 2 月 3 日的报道，文本没有变化）</p>
</div><p>Markets expect steeper yield curves to be the norm in 2026</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场预计 2026 年收益率曲线将更加陡峭</p>
</div><p>Tensions likely to revolve around Fed balance sheet, long-end rates</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紧张局势可能围绕美联储资产负债表和长期利率展开</p>
</div><p>Uncertainty about Warsh’s views likely to raise rate volatility</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对 Warsh 观点的不确定性可能会提高利率波动性</p>
</div><p>Incoming Fed chief expected to revert to hawkish instincts at some point</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新任美联储主席预计将在某个时刻恢复鹰派本能</p>
</div><p>By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Investors are ramping up bets on higher long-dated Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve as incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to press for interest rate cuts while shrinking the U.S. central bank’s balance sheet. Warsh’s preference for a materially smaller Fed balance sheet, currently around $6.59 trillion, implies a withdrawal of meaningful government demand for Treasuries, a move which tightens financial conditions because the central bank is not providing liquidity to the market. Reduced Fed bond reinvestments and purchases expand the amount of Treasury supply in the market, which tends to lift long-dated yields - steepening the curve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，2 月 3 日（路透社）- 投资者正在加大对长期国债收益率上升和收益率曲线陡峭化的押注，因为新任美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 预计将推动降息，同时缩减美国中央银行的资产负债表。Warsh 对大幅缩减美联储资产负债表的偏好（目前约为 6.59 万亿美元）意味着政府对国债的实质性需求将减少，这一举动将收紧金融条件，因为中央银行不再向市场提供流动性。美联储减少债券再投资和购买将扩大市场上的国债供应，这往往会推高长期收益率，从而使曲线变陡。</p>
</div><p>“The main outcome of shrinking the balance sheet would be to have a yield curve that is more normally positively sloped as it was historically before all the intervention following the financial crisis,” said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp in Chicago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“缩减资产负债表的主要结果将是使收益率曲线更正常地呈现正斜率，正如历史上金融危机后所有干预措施之前的情况，” 芝加哥 North Star Investment Management Corp 的首席投资官 Eric Kuby 表示。</p>
</div><p>The yield curve - the gap between short- and long-term rates and a key barometer of economic expectations - often steepens when investors grow more concerned about inflation and widening fiscal deficits. Higher long-term yields feed directly into borrowing costs across the economy: mortgages, corporate bonds, leveraged loans, and equity financing all become more expensive. At the same time, short-end yields are expected to remain subdued under Warsh, accentuating the steepness of the curve. Despite his reputation as a hawk when he was a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, Warsh has recently leaned more dovish, aligning with President Donald Trump’s expectations for near-term rate cuts. The Treasury curve was already steepening - with rates on the long end at higher levels than those on the short end - even before Trump nominated Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell this spring. That steepening was driven by inflation anxiety and fears that higher fiscal deficits would lead to more debt issuance and a spike in yields. The Treasury 2⁄10-year yield curve flattened a bit on Tuesday. It hit 72.70 basis points (bps) (US2US10=TWEB) a day earlier, its steepest level since April 9, a week after “Liberation Day” when Trump announced tariffs on products from U.S. trading partners around the world. Warsh, currently a visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, has said that productivity gains fueled by artificial intelligence in general have a disinflationary impact, allowing the Fed to ease monetary policy. U.S. rate futures show traders still expect roughly two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts this year, with the first happening at the June 16-17 meeting, reflecting confidence a Warsh-led Fed will focus on normalizing borrowing costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收益率曲线——短期和长期利率之间的差距，是经济预期的一个关键晴雨表——通常在投资者对通货膨胀和财政赤字扩大的担忧加剧时变得更加陡峭。较高的长期收益率直接影响整个经济的借贷成本：抵押贷款、公司债务、杠杆贷款和股权融资的成本都变得更高。同时，预计在 Warsh 的领导下，短期收益率将保持低迷，进一步加剧曲线的陡峭程度。尽管他在 2006 年至 2011 年担任美联储理事期间以鹰派著称，但 Warsh 最近的立场更为温和，与特朗普总统对近期降息的预期相一致。在特朗普提名 Warsh 接替美联储主席鲍威尔之前，国债收益率曲线已经在陡峭化——长期利率高于短期利率。这种陡峭化是由于对通货膨胀的焦虑和对财政赤字上升将导致更多债务发行和收益率飙升的担忧。周二，国债 2⁄10 年收益率曲线略微趋平。一天前，它达到了 72.70 个基点（bps）（US2US10=TWEB），是自 4 月 9 日以来的最高水平，那时特朗普宣布对来自全球贸易伙伴的产品征收关税，正值 “解放日” 一周。Warsh 目前是斯坦福大学胡佛研究所的访问学者，他表示，人工智能推动的生产力提升总体上具有通货紧缩影响，使美联储能够放松货币政策。美国利率期货显示，交易员仍预计今年将有大约两次四分之一百分点的降息，第一次将在 6 月 16-17 日的会议上进行，反映出对 Warsh 领导的美联储将专注于正常化借贷成本的信心。</p>
</div><p>Powell’s term as Fed chief ends in mid-May, and Warsh must still be confirmed by the U.S. Senate. Analysts, however, highlight the tension between reducing the Fed’s balance sheet and delivering the lower long-term rates sought by the Trump administration. If the balance sheet contracts and long-term rates remain elevated, term premia - the added yield investors demand to take on duration risk - could remain sticky or rise further, possibly complicating efforts to ease financial conditions through traditional rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将在 5 月中旬结束，而 Warsh 仍需得到美国参议院的确认。然而，分析师强调，缩减美联储资产负债表与实现特朗普政府所寻求的长期利率降低之间的紧张关系。如果资产负债表收缩而长期利率保持高位，期限溢价——投资者为承担期限风险而要求的额外收益——可能会保持粘性或进一步上升，这可能会使通过传统降息来放松金融条件的努力变得复杂。</p>
</div><p>“It’s a tough policy to administer. You have one policy that you’re using in a dovish fashion like cutting rates, and then you have another policy that you’re using that leads to higher rates, like shrinking the balance sheet,” said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是一项难以实施的政策。你有一项政策是以温和的方式进行，比如降息，而另一项政策则导致利率上升，比如缩减资产负债表，” 宾夕法尼亚州伯文的 Bryn Mawr Trust 固定收益主管 Jim Barnes 表示。</p>
</div><p>“They’re going in opposite directions. You want to cut rates and shrink the balance sheet at the same time. But how do you put that into action? And that’s where it becomes problematic.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“它们朝着相反的方向发展。你想同时降息和缩减资产负债表。但你如何将其付诸实践？这就是问题所在。”</p>
</div><h3>TECHNICAL ISSUES, RATES VOLATILITY</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>技术问题，利率波动性</h3>
</div><p>Lou Crandall, chief economist at money market research firm Wrightson-ICAP in New York, said any plan to reduce the Fed’s assets will involve a number of complex technical issues - especially with respect to bank liquidity regulations - and take time. Market players also anticipate higher interest rate volatility, with some viewing Warsh as a contentious Fed chief given his past criticism of the central bank, said Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities in New York, adding that this situation could alienate some members of the central bank’s policy-setting committee. “We also find the former governor harder to pin down given his notable 180-(degree) shift in policy priorities after espousing a very hawkish stance since being part of the Fed during the GFC (Global Financial Crisis),” Munoz added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约 Wrightson-ICAP 货币市场研究公司的首席经济学家 Lou Crandall 表示，任何减少美联储资产的计划都将涉及许多复杂的技术问题——特别是与银行流动性监管相关的问题——并需要时间。市场参与者还预计利率波动性将上升，一些人认为 Warsh 作为美联储主席可能会引发争议，因为他过去对中央银行的批评，TD Securities 美国宏观策略主管 Oscar Munoz 表示，并补充说这种情况可能会使中央银行的政策制定委员会的一些成员感到疏远。“我们还发现，前任理事在政策优先级上显著 180 度转变后更难以捉摸，因为他在全球金融危机期间曾持有非常鹰派的立场，” Munoz 补充道。</p>
</div><p>Bond market participants, however, expect Warsh to revert to his hawkish instincts at some point, further driving interest rate volatility higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，债券市场参与者预计 Warsh 将在某个时刻恢复他的鹰派本能，进一步推动利率波动性上升。</p>
</div><p>Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier, associate strategist at BCA in Montreal, said while Warsh has pointed to AI-driven productivity gains as a reason “not to worry about future inflation,” higher productivity implies a higher neutral fed funds rate. The MOVE index (.MOVE) , a measure of rate volatility, has been declining over the last few months and has yet to price in Warsh’s upcoming stint as Fed chief. The index was last at 59.30, down from 84.32 in mid-November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蒙特利尔 BCA 的副策略师 Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier 表示，尽管 Warsh 指出由人工智能驱动的生产力提升是 “无需担心未来通货膨胀” 的原因，但更高的生产力意味着更高的中性联邦基金利率。MOVE 指数（.MOVE），一个衡量利率波动性的指标，过去几个月一直在下降，尚未反映 Warsh 即将担任美联储主席的情况。该指数最后一次为 59.30，低于 11 月中旬的 84.32。</p>
</div><p>“Only time will tell how Warsh works as chairman. He was an inflation hawk during his time on the Board of Governors,” said Benjamin Connard, portfolio manager at Carnegie Investment Counsel in Stamford, Connecticut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“只有时间能证明 Warsh 作为主席的表现。他在担任理事会成员期间是一个通货膨胀鹰派，” 康涅狄格州斯坦福的 Carnegie Investment Counsel 投资组合经理 Benjamin Connard 表示。</p>
</div><p>“He’s changed his tune recently, and a cynic may say only to secure the nomination. … Rates are set by the majority, so Warsh alone cannot cut them. For a long-term investor, as long as there is continued confidence in the Fed as a whole, this nomination should not change your perspective.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他最近改变了口风，怀疑论者可能会说这只是为了确保提名。……利率由大多数人决定，因此沃什一个人无法降低利率。对于长期投资者来说，只要对美联储整体仍然保持信心，这一提名不应改变你的看法。”</p>
</div>

ANALYSIS-Investors ramp up bets on steeper yield curve under Warsh-led Fed

- 投资者预期 2026 年长债收益率上涨，曲线趋于陡峭。  
- 入主美联储的 Warsh 被看作可能会推动降息，缩减资产负债表。  
- 除非有效管理，削减资产与维持低长期利率之间的紧张局势可能加剧。

Reuters

7-10 年期美国国债 3 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

美国长期债券 - Vanguard

美国长期国债 ETF - Vanguard

组合中期公司债券 ETF - SPDR

美国投资级公司债 - iShares

美国长期公司债 - Vanguard

美国短期公司债 - Vanguard

US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF

国泰上证5年期国债ETF

20 年期以上美国国债 ETF - iShares

1-3年 美国国债 ETF - iShares

US Treasury 2 Year Note ETF

美国中期公司债 - Vanguard

鹏扬中债-30年期国债ETF

美债市场指数 ETF - Vanguard

道富SPDR彭博1-3个月美国国债ETF

短期公司债券 ETF - iShares

美国债券综合指数 ETF - iShares

US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF

美国中期国债 ETF - iShares

分析 - 在 Warsh 领导的美联储下，投资者加大了对更陡峭收益率曲线的押注