<p>尽管在经历了年初的艰难开局后，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 3.76%）在 2025 年以良好的表现收尾，并实现了增长，但分析师们并不期待 2026 年会有类似的表现。根据最新的分析，分析师社区对特斯拉股票的 12 个月共识目标价仅为每股 421.48 美元，低于当前接近 430 美元的股价。</p>
<p>问题在于，考虑到公司正在进行的全面转型，华尔街的谨慎态度可能是正确的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTMyOTAvbWFuLWxvb2tpbmctaW4tdGhlLWRpc3RhbmNlLXdpdGgtYS1wYWlyLW9mLWJpbm9jdWxhcnMuanBnJnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTMyOTAvbWFuLWxvb2tpbmctaW4tdGhlLWRpc3RhbmNlLXdpdGgtYS1wYWlyLW9mLWJpbm9jdWxhcnMuanBnJnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的变化</h2>
<p>你知道特斯拉是几家电动车（EV）制造商之一。但这远不是它唯一的身份。实际上，考虑到最近的公告，其电动车业务似乎现在有些次要。其中一项公告是公司将很快停止生产 Model S 和 Model X 车型，暂时专注于 Model 3 和 Model Y 的生产。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<p>特斯拉</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-3.76%) $-15.85</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$406.11</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.4 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$399.19 - $423.90</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$214.25 - $498.83</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>320 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>7400 万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>18.03%</p>
<p>这个想法在实际和表面上都很有道理。被从产品线中剔除的两个车型仅占特斯拉总产量的约 3%，这使得它们更像是分散注意力的因素，而不是有意义的利润中心。然而，值得注意的是，自从其他电动车制造商如 <strong>比亚迪</strong>、<strong>吉利汽车</strong> 和 <strong>大众</strong> 提高了电动车产量以来，这两款高端电动车的销量也有所下滑；尤其是在中国市场。</p>
<p>另一个令人震惊的近期发展是特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克上个月在决定停产 Model S 和 Model X 电动车时所说的。也就是说，公司大幅削减这两款高价电动车，以便专注于开发和生产一款名为 Optimus 的人工智能人形机器人，预计将在明年向公众推出。马斯克甚至表示，这些售价 3 万美元的自动化产品可能会成为 “有史以来最大的产品”。</p>
<p>这些举措当然只是从电动车向人工智能（AI）驱动的自动化转型的更大哲学变化的一部分，包括 自动驾驶交通。</p>
<p>更有趣的是，现在有传言称，马斯克正在考虑将独立运营的 SpaceX 与他同样独立运营的人工智能开发公司 xAI 合并，以及将这两个组织与特斯拉本身合并的可能性。</p>
<h2>暂停，待进一步通知</h2>
<p>这些想法并不一定是坏主意。然而，所有这些想法要么是漫长的改造项目，要么是分散注意力，或者两者兼而有之。在此期间，特斯拉的核心电动车业务可能会受到最大的影响，因为马斯克将注意力集中在重塑他的其他业务帝国，同时重新聚焦特斯拉。此外，目前尚不清楚所有这些工作何时能够完成，也不清楚完成后是否在财政上值得。</p>
<p>这对特斯拉股票来说是个问题，因为投资者不喜欢未知和不确定性，并可能会在清晰度重新出现之前保持观望。你可能也想这样做。</p>

TESL

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - T-Rex

1.25 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

<p>华尔街分析师对特斯拉（TSLA）在 2026 年的表现持谨慎态度，12 个月的目标价为 421.48 美元，低于其当前约 430 美元的价格。特斯拉计划停产 Model S 和 Model X，以专注于 Model 3、Model Y 以及开发一款名为 Optimus 的人工智能机器人。这一转变可能会分散其核心电动车业务的注意力，导致投资者的不确定性。因此，特斯拉的股票可能面临挑战，直到其未来方向更加明朗</p>

<p>Despite bouncing back from its rough start to the year to end 2025 on a high note -- and with a gain -- analysts aren't expecting a repeat performance from <strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA 3.76%) in 2026. As of the latest look, the analyst community's current 12-month consensus price target for Tesla stock is only $421.48 per share, which is below the ticker's present price near $430.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在经历了年初的艰难开局后，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 3.76%）在 2025 年以良好的表现收尾，并实现了增长，但分析师们并不期待 2026 年会有类似的表现。根据最新的分析，分析师社区对特斯拉股票的 12 个月共识目标价仅为每股 421.48 美元，低于当前接近 430 美元的股价。</p>
</div><p>The thing is, given the sweeping transformation now underway at the company, Wall Street may be right to be cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题在于，考虑到公司正在进行的全面转型，华尔街的谨慎态度可能是正确的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTMyOTAvbWFuLWxvb2tpbmctaW4tdGhlLWRpc3RhbmNlLXdpdGgtYS1wYWlyLW9mLWJpbm9jdWxhcnMuanBnJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="A person looks into the distance using a pair of binoculars." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F853290%2Fman-looking-in-the-distance-with-a-pair-of-binoculars.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes at Tesla</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的变化</h2>
</div><p>You know Tesla as one of several manufacturers of electric vehicles (EVs). But that's far from its sole identity. Its EV business almost seems somewhat secondary now, in fact, in light of recent announcements. One of these announcements is news that the company will soon stop making its Model S and Model X vehicles, and focus -- for now anyway -- strictly on production of its Model 3 and Model Y.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你知道特斯拉是几家电动车（EV）制造商之一。但这远不是它唯一的身份。实际上，考虑到最近的公告，其电动车业务似乎现在有些次要。其中一项公告是公司将很快停止生产 Model S 和 Model X 车型，暂时专注于 Model 3 和 Model Y 的生产。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-3.76%) $-15.85</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-3.76%) $-15.85</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$406.11</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$406.11</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.4T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.4 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$399.19 - $423.90</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$399.19 - $423.90</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$214.25 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$214.25 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>3.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>320 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>74M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7400 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>18.03%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>18.03%</p>
</div><p>The idea makes enough practical, superficial sense. The two models to be dropped from its lineup only account for about 3% of Tesla's total production, which makes them more of a distraction than a meaningful profit center. It's worth noting, however, that sales of both higher-end electric vehicles have also deteriorated since other EV makers like <strong>BYD</strong>, <strong>Geely Automobile</strong>, and <strong>Volkswagen</strong> have stepped up their EV output; that's particularly true in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个想法在实际和表面上都很有道理。被从产品线中剔除的两个车型仅占特斯拉总产量的约 3%，这使得它们更像是分散注意力的因素，而不是有意义的利润中心。然而，值得注意的是，自从其他电动车制造商如 <strong>比亚迪</strong>、<strong>吉利汽车</strong> 和 <strong>大众</strong> 提高了电动车产量以来，这两款高端电动车的销量也有所下滑；尤其是在中国市场。</p>
</div><p>The other somewhat shocking recent development is something else Tesla CEO Elon Musk said last month in conjunction with the decision to discontinue the Model S and Model X battery-powered automobiles. That is, the company is largely dropping these two high-priced EVs from its portfolio so it can focus on the development and production of an AI-powered humanoid robot called Optimus that's expected to be made available to the public sometime next year. Musk even went as far as to suggest these $30,000 automatons could prove to be &#34;the biggest product of all time.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个令人震惊的近期发展是特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克上个月在决定停产 Model S 和 Model X 电动车时所说的。也就是说，公司大幅削减这两款高价电动车，以便专注于开发和生产一款名为 Optimus 的人工智能人形机器人，预计将在明年向公众推出。马斯克甚至表示，这些售价 3 万美元的自动化产品可能会成为 “有史以来最大的产品”。</p>
</div><p>These moves are, of course, all just part of a bigger philosophical shift away from electric vehicles and toward artificial intelligence (AI)-powered automation, including autonomously driven transportation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些举措当然只是从电动车向人工智能（AI）驱动的自动化转型的更大哲学变化的一部分，包括 自动驾驶交通。</p>
</div><p>The kicker: Whispers are now circulating that Musk is toying with the idea of melding separately managed SpaceX with his also-separately run artificial intelligence developer xAI, as well as the possibility of melding these two organizations with Tesla itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更有趣的是，现在有传言称，马斯克正在考虑将独立运营的 SpaceX 与他同样独立运营的人工智能开发公司 xAI 合并，以及将这两个组织与特斯拉本身合并的可能性。</p>
</div><h2>On hold 'til further notice</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>暂停，待进一步通知</h2>
</div><p>None of these is necessarily a bad idea. All of these ideas, however, are either lengthy overhaul projects, distracting, or both. Tesla's core electric vehicle business itself is positioned to suffer the most in the meantime as Musk focuses his attention on reshaping the rest his empire while also refocusing Tesla. Moreover, not only is it not clear when all of this work might actually be done, but there's also no clarity as to whether it will be fiscally worth it when it's all completed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些想法并不一定是坏主意。然而，所有这些想法要么是漫长的改造项目，要么是分散注意力，或者两者兼而有之。在此期间，特斯拉的核心电动车业务可能会受到最大的影响，因为马斯克将注意力集中在重塑他的其他业务帝国，同时重新聚焦特斯拉。此外，目前尚不清楚所有这些工作何时能够完成，也不清楚完成后是否在财政上值得。</p>
</div><p>That's a problem for Tesla stock simply because investors dislike unknowns and uncertainty, and will likely remain on the sidelines until clarity reemerges. You might want to do the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对特斯拉股票来说是个问题，因为投资者不喜欢未知和不确定性，并可能会在清晰度重新出现之前保持观望。你可能也想这样做。</p>
</div>

What Wall Street Thinks Tesla Will Be Worth by End of 2026. 1 Reason It Might Be Right

- 特斯拉预计 2026 年表现不佳，分析师目标价为 421.48 美元。  
- 公司将停止生产 Model S 和 Model X，集中于 Model 3 和 Model Y。  
- 特斯拉转向 AI 机器人开发，但可能影响电动车业务。

华尔街对特斯拉在 2026 年底的估值预测及其可能正确的一个原因