<p>这至少会让接下来的经济日历保持有趣。英格兰银行的决定将在格林威治时间 1200 首先公布，预计将以 7-2 的投票结果支持将银行利率维持在 3.75% 不变。随后将在格林威治时间 1230 举行英格兰银行行长贝利的新闻发布会。</p>
<p>欧洲央行将在格林威治时间 1315 紧接着召开会议，随后在格林威治时间 1345 举行拉加德的新闻发布会。同样，这次预计欧洲央行不会有太大动作。市场普遍预期央行将在可预见的未来维持货币政策不变，等待经济前景的实质性变化。</p>
<p>因此，今天关于央行的头条新闻不必期待太多。</p>
<p>目前，交易者仍然倾向于未来英格兰银行会进一步降息。下一个 25 个基点的降息预计仅在 8 月实现，今年仅定价约 39 个基点的降息。</p>
<p>至于欧洲央行，交易者暂时不预计 2026 年央行会有任何利率变化。因为政策制定者仍在努力平衡经济压力和通胀发展。</p>
<p>展望未来的一天，央行的盛宴并不是唯一的焦点。贵金属仍将是一个关键关注点，特别是在黄金和白银昨天的反弹遭遇挫折之后。</p>
<p>黄金未能在日线收盘时稳固突破 5000 美元，而白银在昨天短暂触及 90 美元后已出现回落。这是一个重大挫折，显示出在上周以来的急剧回调后，重新获得购买动能将变得更加困难。获利了结现在将成为任何上涨的一个重要因素，这可能使贵金属在短期内处于更为整合的区间。</p>
<p>此外，今天还将有关键的美国数据发布。政府停摆推迟了美国就业报告到下周，而 JOLTS 职位空缺数据也推迟到今天晚些时候发布。这将与每周的初请失业金报告一起发布，至少会为市场提供一些信息。</p>
<p>最后，华尔街的持续轮换也将受到关注。科技股昨天已经面临压力，尽管开局稍好，但风险情绪却逐渐减弱并转为负面。这使得纳斯达克首次跌破自去年 5 月以来的 100 日移动平均线。</p>
<p>技术上的拖累可能是科技股出现实质性回调的开始，尤其是在人工智能交易受到密切审视的情况下。投资者开始关注估值，并要求公司 “给我看看钱”。</p>
<p>说到更广泛的风险情绪，也要密切关注加密货币。比特币在美国交易中遭遇重创，跌至自 2024 年 11 月以来的最低点，跌破了 2025 年 4 月的低点约 74,420 美元。该加密货币目前面临压力，测试跌破 72,000 美元的关口。</p>
<p>进一步的抛售和回落将继续影响风险偏好和整体市场情绪。因此，请对此保持警惕。</p>

<p>今天的欧洲交易时段将迎来关键的中央银行决策，预计英格兰银行（BOE）将维持利率在 3.75% 不变，而欧洲中央银行（ECB）可能会保持货币政策不变。交易者预计英格兰银行未来会降息，而欧洲中央银行预计在 2026 年前不会调整利率。近期价格波动使得黄金和白银等贵金属面临挑战。此外，美国就业数据发布延迟，科技股受到关注，纳斯达克指数跌破其 100 日移动平均线。比特币也面临重大压力，跌破 72,000 美元</p>

<p>That will at least keep things interesting on the economic calendar in the session ahead. The BOE decision will be up first at 1200 GMT with a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% expected. That will be followed up by BOE governor Bailey's press conference at 1230 GMT.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这至少会让接下来的经济日历保持有趣。英格兰银行的决定将在格林威治时间 1200 首先公布，预计将以 7-2 的投票结果支持将银行利率维持在 3.75% 不变。随后将在格林威治时间 1230 举行英格兰银行行长贝利的新闻发布会。</p>
</div><p>The ECB will then step up to the plate shortly after at 1315 GMT before Lagarde's press conference at 1345 GMT today. Similarly, no fireworks are expected from the ECB this time around. The central bank is well expected to keep monetary policy unchanged for the foreseeable future, awaiting material changes to the economic outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行将在格林威治时间 1315 紧接着召开会议，随后在格林威治时间 1345 举行拉加德的新闻发布会。同样，这次预计欧洲央行不会有太大动作。市场普遍预期央行将在可预见的未来维持货币政策不变，等待经济前景的实质性变化。</p>
</div><p>As such, don't expect too much to work with when it comes to the central bank headlines today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，今天关于央行的头条新闻不必期待太多。</p>
</div><p>At the balance, traders are still leaning towards more rate cuts by the BOE down the road. The next 25 bps rate cut is only priced in for August with just ~39 bps of rate cuts priced in for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，交易者仍然倾向于未来英格兰银行会进一步降息。下一个 25 个基点的降息预计仅在 8 月实现，今年仅定价约 39 个基点的降息。</p>
</div><p>As for the ECB, traders are not expecting any rate changes whatsoever from the central bank in 2026 for the time being. That as policymakers continue to struggle to balance out economic pressures and inflation developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于欧洲央行，交易者暂时不预计 2026 年央行会有任何利率变化。因为政策制定者仍在努力平衡经济压力和通胀发展。</p>
</div><p>Looking to the day ahead, the central bank bonanza won't be the only game in town. Precious metals will continue to be a key focus, particularly after gold and silver saw their recoveries thwarted yesterday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来的一天，央行的盛宴并不是唯一的焦点。贵金属仍将是一个关键关注点，特别是在黄金和白银昨天的反弹遭遇挫折之后。</p>
</div><p>Gold failed to hold a firm break above $5,000 on the daily close while silver has capitulated after briefly clipping the $90 mark yesterday. That's a major setback and it shows how much tougher it will be to regain the buying momentum after the sharp pullback since last week. Profit-taking will now be a considerable factor on any bump higher, which might make for more of a consolidative range for precious metals in the short-term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金未能在日线收盘时稳固突破 5000 美元，而白银在昨天短暂触及 90 美元后已出现回落。这是一个重大挫折，显示出在上周以来的急剧回调后，重新获得购买动能将变得更加困难。获利了结现在将成为任何上涨的一个重要因素，这可能使贵金属在短期内处于更为整合的区间。</p>
</div><p>Then, there's also going to be key US data releases to watch out for in the day ahead. The government shutdown delayed the US jobs report to next week and the JOLTS job openings data is also pushed back to later today. That will be come alongside the weekly initial jobless claims report, so that will at least offer something to markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，今天还将有关键的美国数据发布。政府停摆推迟了美国就业报告到下周，而 JOLTS 职位空缺数据也推迟到今天晚些时候发布。这将与每周的初请失业金报告一起发布，至少会为市场提供一些信息。</p>
</div><p>And lastly, there will be watchful eyes on the continued rotational play in Wall Street. Tech shares had their backs against the wall yesterday already and after a slightly better start, risk sentiment fizzled and turned more negative instead. That sees the Nasdaq break below its 100-day moving average for the first time since May last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，华尔街的持续轮换也将受到关注。科技股昨天已经面临压力，尽管开局稍好，但风险情绪却逐渐减弱并转为负面。这使得纳斯达克首次跌破自去年 5 月以来的 100 日移动平均线。</p>
</div><p>The technical drag could be the start of a material pullback in tech shares, especially now that the AI trade is coming under intense scrutiny. Investors are starting to poke at valuations and are asking firms to &#34;show me the money&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技术上的拖累可能是科技股出现实质性回调的开始，尤其是在人工智能交易受到密切审视的情况下。投资者开始关注估值，并要求公司 “给我看看钱”。</p>
</div><p>And speaking of broader risk sentiment, keep a close watch on cryptocurrencies as well. Bitcoin was hammered lower in US trading yesterday in falling to its lowest since November 2024 after breaking below the April 2025 lows around $74,420. The cryptocurrency is now under pressure amid a testing break below the $72,000 mark.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>说到更广泛的风险情绪，也要密切关注加密货币。比特币在美国交易中遭遇重创，跌至自 2024 年 11 月以来的最低点，跌破了 2025 年 4 月的低点约 74,420 美元。该加密货币目前面临压力，测试跌破 72,000 美元的关口。</p>
</div><p>A further selloff and capitulation will continue to weigh on risk appetite and the broader market mood in general. So, watch out for that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步的抛售和回落将继续影响风险偏好和整体市场情绪。因此，请对此保持警惕。</p>
</div>

The central bank bonanza returns in European trading today

- 英格兰银行将于格林威治时间 1200 发布利率决策，预计维持在 3.75% 不变。  
- 欧洲央行将在格林威治时间 1315 召开会议，预计不会有重大政策变化。  
- 黄金和白银价格回调，未来美国就业数据和市场情绪将是关注焦点。

欧洲市场今日再次迎来央行盛宴