<p>（MaceNews）- 日本新闻媒体在 2 月 3 日至 2 月 5 日之间进行的民意调查于周四发布，结果显示保守派执政的自由民主党在 2 月 8 日的众议院选举中将取得压倒性胜利，该党有望获得比初步调查所示的更大胜利。</p>
<p>调查没有说明选民为何选择自由民主党而非其他党派，尽管执政党卷入了金钱政治丑闻，许多立法者与有争议的统一教有密切联系，该教会曾帮助自由民主党候选人，以此作为渗透日本决策过程的手段。</p>
<p>《读卖新闻》的民调显示，自由民主党有望超过 465 个众议院席位中所需的 233 个席位的简单多数，且该党可能接近或超过 261 个席位的绝对多数。调查表明，主要反对派集团中道可能会失去约一半的 172 个席位。</p>
<p>根据同一项民调，自由民主党与维新会的联盟可能达到 310 个席位的三分之二超级多数，这样可以在立法上推翻上议院的反对意见，并启动提议宪法修正案的程序。</p>
<p>首相高市早苗在 1 月 19 日结束了数周的猜测，宣布计划于 1 月 23 日解散众议院，并召开快选，开始 150 天的常规国会会议。</p>
<p>她将选举日定在 2 月 8 日，给许多政治家（包括她的同事）准备的时间很少。反对派阵营仍然相对分散。曾短暂执政的最大反对党与前自由民主党合作的最后时刻婚姻，迄今未能获得太多选民支持，可能是因为没有足够的时间传达他们的竞选承诺，包括应对日常必需品的通货膨胀，这也是执政党和反对党共同设定的目标。</p>
<p>《每日新闻》的民调结果同样指向自由民主党的主导地位，表明该党可能单独赢得约 300 个席位。与维新会的联盟，执政阵营可能获得三分之二的多数。每日新闻的调查显示，自由民主党在 289 个单一选区中超过 60% 的选票，较 1 月 27 日正式启动的选举活动初期的 50% 有所上升。</p>
<p>在强大的众议院中，执政党在 243 个 “舒适多数” 下，可以让其立法者担任所有常务委员会的主席。261 个 “绝对多数” 还将使获胜党在每个委员会中占据超过一半的席位。</p>
<p>每日新闻的民调还表明，新反对派集团中道（中间改革联盟）在日本宪法民主党和公明党之间，可能会失去大量的合并席位。公明党在 10 月结束了与自由民主党的多年合作，批评执政党在解决其政治资金丑闻的根本原因上反应过慢。</p>
<p>尽管执政集团表现强劲，但每日新闻指出，31% 的受访者仍未决定在单一选区投票给谁，并补充说，在某些地区的投票行为可能在选举日之前发生变化。但这仍低于 1 月 28 日至 29 日进行的前一次调查中 46% 的未决定比例。</p>
<p>《日经新闻》的民调同样预测自由民主党将取得决定性胜利。这家商业日报估计，该党可能会从 1 月 23 日解散众议院前的 198 个席位增加力量，甚至可能将联盟推向接近 300 个席位。调查还显示，中道面临失去约一半的选举前实力。</p>
<p>日本媒体的民调在计算反对派席位总数时存在差异，有些使用中道在 2 月 23 日众议院解散前的 172 个席位，而其他则基于 2 月 27 日的官方选举公报，计算排除退休立法者后的 167 个席位。</p>

华安日经225ETF

南方日经225

科综指增

华夏野村日经225ETF

<p>日本媒体的民调显示，执政的自由民主党（LDP）在即将于 2 月 8 日举行的下院选举中将取得压倒性胜利，预计该党可能获得超过 300 个席位。主要反对派联盟中道预计将失去约一半的席位。尽管自由民主党面临丑闻，但选民支持依然强劲，超过 60% 的单一选区倾向于执政党。然而，31% 的受访者仍未决定，表明在选举前选民行为可能会发生变化</p>

<p>(MaceNews) - Japanese news media polls conducted between Feb. 3 and Feb. 5 and released Thursday point to a landslide victory for the conservative ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the Feb. 8 lower house election, with the party on track to secure a significantly larger win than indicated by initial surveys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（MaceNews）- 日本新闻媒体在 2 月 3 日至 2 月 5 日之间进行的民意调查于周四发布，结果显示保守派执政的自由民主党在 2 月 8 日的众议院选举中将取得压倒性胜利，该党有望获得比初步调查所示的更大胜利。</p>
</div><p>None of the surveys said why voters are choosing the LDP over others while the ruling party has been embroiled in money politics scandals and many of its lawmakers have had close ties with the controversial Unification Church that helped LDP candidates in the past as a means of infiltrating Japan’s decision-making process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>调查没有说明选民为何选择自由民主党而非其他党派，尽管执政党卷入了金钱政治丑闻，许多立法者与有争议的统一教有密切联系，该教会曾帮助自由民主党候选人，以此作为渗透日本决策过程的手段。</p>
</div><p>A Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper poll shows the LDP poised to exceed the 233-seat threshold needed for a simple majority in the 465-seat House of Representatives, with the party potentially approaching or surpassing an absolute majority of 261 seats. The survey indicates the main opposition bloc, Chudo, could lose around half of the 172 seats it held before the snap election was called.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《读卖新闻》的民调显示，自由民主党有望超过 465 个众议院席位中所需的 233 个席位的简单多数，且该党可能接近或超过 261 个席位的绝对多数。调查表明，主要反对派集团中道可能会失去约一半的 172 个席位。</p>
</div><p>According to the same poll, the LDP’s coalition with Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) could reach the two-thirds supermajority of 310 seats required to override upper house opposition on legislation and to initiate procedures for proposing constitutional amendments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据同一项民调，自由民主党与维新会的联盟可能达到 310 个席位的三分之二超级多数，这样可以在立法上推翻上议院的反对意见，并启动提议宪法修正案的程序。</p>
</div><p>Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ended weeks of speculation on Jan. 19 by announcing her plan to call a snap election and dissolve the lower house on Jan. 23 at the start of the 150-day ordinary parliamentary session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首相高市早苗在 1 月 19 日结束了数周的猜测，宣布计划于 1 月 23 日解散众议院，并召开快选，开始 150 天的常规国会会议。</p>
</div><p>She set election day on Feb. 8, giving many politicians (including her colleagues) little time to prepare. The opposition camp remains largely fragmented. The last-minute pre-election marriage between the largest opposition party that once ruled Japan briefly and a former LDP partner has so far failed to garner much voter support, probably because it hasn’t had enough time to communicate their campaign pledges including fighting inflation in daily necessities, which is a common goal set by both the ruling and opposition parties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她将选举日定在 2 月 8 日，给许多政治家（包括她的同事）准备的时间很少。反对派阵营仍然相对分散。曾短暂执政的最大反对党与前自由民主党合作的最后时刻婚姻，迄今未能获得太多选民支持，可能是因为没有足够的时间传达他们的竞选承诺，包括应对日常必需品的通货膨胀，这也是执政党和反对党共同设定的目标。</p>
</div><p>Results from a Mainichi Shimbun daily poll also point to a dominant outcome for the LDP, indicating the party could win around 300 seats on its own. With coalition partner Ishin, the ruling camp could secure a two-thirds majority. Mainichi’s survey indicates the LDP is leading in more than 60% of the 289 single-seat constituencies, up from just over 50% in its initial poll during the election campaign officially launched on Jan. 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《每日新闻》的民调结果同样指向自由民主党的主导地位，表明该党可能单独赢得约 300 个席位。与维新会的联盟，执政阵营可能获得三分之二的多数。每日新闻的调查显示，自由民主党在 289 个单一选区中超过 60% 的选票，较 1 月 27 日正式启动的选举活动初期的 50% 有所上升。</p>
</div><p>In the powerful lower chamber of the Diet, at a 243 “comfortable majority,” the ruling party could have all the standing committees chaired by its lawmakers. A 261 “absolute majority” would also allow the winning party to dominate more than a half of the seats in each committee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在强大的众议院中，执政党在 243 个 “舒适多数” 下，可以让其立法者担任所有常务委员会的主席。261 个 “绝对多数” 还将使获胜党在每个委员会中占据超过一半的席位。</p>
</div><p>The Mainichi poll also indicated that the new opposition group Chudo (Centrist Reform Alliance) between the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito is likely to lose a substantial number of its combined seats. Komeito ended years of partnership with the LDP in October, criticizing the ruling party of being too slow to address the root cause of its political funding scandals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每日新闻的民调还表明，新反对派集团中道（中间改革联盟）在日本宪法民主党和公明党之间，可能会失去大量的合并席位。公明党在 10 月结束了与自由民主党的多年合作，批评执政党在解决其政治资金丑闻的根本原因上反应过慢。</p>
</div><p>Despite the strong showing for the ruling bloc, the Mainichi noted that 31% of respondents were still undecided for whom to vote in single-seat constituencies, adding that voting behavior in some districts could shift before election day. But that’s still down from 46% of the undecided in its previous survey conducted on Jan. 28-29</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管执政集团表现强劲，但每日新闻指出，31% 的受访者仍未决定在单一选区投票给谁，并补充说，在某些地区的投票行为可能在选举日之前发生变化。但这仍低于 1 月 28 日至 29 日进行的前一次调查中 46% 的未决定比例。</p>
</div><p>A poll by the Nikkei similarly projects a decisive victory for the LDP. The business daily estimates the party is likely to boost its strength from the 198 seats that it had held before the lower house was dissolved on Jan. 23 and that it could even push the coalition close to 300 seats. The survey also showed Chudo facing the loss of about half of its pre-election strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《日经新闻》的民调同样预测自由民主党将取得决定性胜利。这家商业日报估计，该党可能会从 1 月 23 日解散众议院前的 198 个席位增加力量，甚至可能将联盟推向接近 300 个席位。调查还显示，中道面临失去约一半的选举前实力。</p>
</div><p>Japanese media polls differ in how they calculate opposition seat totals, with some using Chudo’s 172 seats held prior to the Feb. 23 dissolution of the lower house while others base estimates on the Feb. 27 issue of the official election bulletin counting 167 seats after excluding retiring lawmakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本媒体的民调在计算反对派席位总数时存在差异，有些使用中道在 2 月 23 日众议院解散前的 172 个席位，而其他则基于 2 月 27 日的官方选举公报，计算排除退休立法者后的 167 个席位。</p>
</div>

日本新闻媒体的民调显示：执政的保守派自民党在 2 月 8 日的众议院选举中有望大获全胜，而新的反对派中间派联盟则处于落后状态