<p>我最近发表了看法，认为 2026 年 1 月 26 日将被视为美国金融市场流动性震荡的日子。</p>
<p>一切都在同一时间颤动，大约在东部时间上午 10 点。美元飙升，日元也上涨，黄金和白银下跌，股票也下跌，油价暴跌，而债券几乎没有反应。这些都是 ‘某种东西在表面下断裂’ 的迹象。</p>
<p>我不知道是谁或是什么，因为这很快就被掩盖了，但迹象是显而易见的。</p>
<p>现在，我们在 2 月 5 日似乎又面临一系列流动性问题。股票正在被抛售，油气遭受重创，金属被大量抛售，比特币也遭受重创。但债券几乎没有反应，通常在这种市场抛售中价格会攀升，但它们并没有。</p>
<p>这张图片是 2026 年 2 月 5 日中午左右拍摄的。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Markets-futures-Feb-5th-2026.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Markets-futures-Feb-5th-2026.jpg"/></p>
<p>那么，所有这些钱都去哪了？它们去了 ‘钱的天国’。至少在那些借钱投资或投机的人和公司中是这样。当这些策略变得紧张时，他们会平仓，抛售他们所拥有的，买入兴趣相对于卖出压力干涸，价格就会下跌。</p>
<p>这就是你在 ‘流动性枯竭’ 时看到的模式。</p>
<p>如果我们查看股票的一个月回报，可以很容易看到，资金正在从科技股普遍转向经典防御性股票，尤其是人工智能，以及金融股……而且显著地转向石油公司。这一点很有趣，因为石油本身在过去一年中并没有显著上涨，远低于一年前的水平。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/The-GReat-Rotation-Feb-2026.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/The-GReat-Rotation-Feb-2026.jpg"/></p>
<p>这就是你在长期牛市顶部看到的 ‘大轮换’。大型投资者和机构逐渐远离那些性感的、高飞的动量股，而是购买消费防御性、公共事业、房地产投资信托和医疗保健股票。</p>
<p>与此同时，欧洲、亚洲、澳大利亚和美国存在显著的白银产品短缺。但这并没有阻止银行家们用他们惯用的卑鄙手段猛烈抨击纸白银。</p>
<p>这些手段主要包括在深夜的非常短时间内倾倒大量纸合约。</p>
<p>昨晚也不例外，当然，按照 CME 规则 589 的要求并没有暂停交易：</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Silver-slam-Feb-4th-2026-NO-Halt.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Silver-slam-Feb-4th-2026-NO-Halt.jpg"/></p>
<p>_“让它继续！”_他们在 CME 说，只要是向下的。我相信，如果是向上的类似举动，肯定会严格执行暂停。</p>
<p>所以请收听更多内容，了解为什么拥有一个风险管理的投资组合是应对似乎即将到来的波动性的好方法。</p>
<p><em>视频时长：01:19:10</em></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
<p>特朗普的美元贬值要么有效，要么无效</p>
<p>当人工智能泡沫破裂时，损失将是严重的</p>
<p>被高估的股票正在忽视这七个衰退指标</p>

<p>这篇文章讨论了美国金融市场可能出现的流动性危机，表现为股票、石油和金属的大幅抛售，而债券则保持稳定。这表明市场正在发生一场 “伟大的轮换”，从高增长的科技和金融等行业转向防御性股票。作者指出，尽管市场受到操控，白银仍然存在持续短缺。文章强调，在应对即将到来的市场波动时，风险管理投资组合的重要性</p>

<p>I recently opined that January 26th, 2026, was going to be recognized as the day a liquidity tremor rippled across the U.S. financial markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我最近发表了看法，认为 2026 年 1 月 26 日将被视为美国金融市场流动性震荡的日子。</p>
</div><p>Everything trembled at once, at ~ 10:00 a.m. ET.The dollar spiked, so did the yen, gold and silver fell, so did stocks, oil got smoked, and bonds barely reacted at all.These are the signs that ‘something snapped’ beneath the surface.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一切都在同一时间颤动，大约在东部时间上午 10 点。美元飙升，日元也上涨，黄金和白银下跌，股票也下跌，油价暴跌，而债券几乎没有反应。这些都是 ‘某种东西在表面下断裂’ 的迹象。</p>
</div><p>I have no idea who or what, because it was rather quickly papered over, but the signs were unmistakable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不知道是谁或是什么，因为这很快就被掩盖了，但迹象是显而易见的。</p>
</div><p>And now, we have what appears to be another set of liquidity troubles here on February 5th. Equities are getting sold, oil and gas are getting clobbered, the metals are being sold hard, and Bitcoin is getting clobbered, too. But bonds are barely reacting, which would ordinarily be climbing in price if this were a typical market sell-off. But they are not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，我们在 2 月 5 日似乎又面临一系列流动性问题。股票正在被抛售，油气遭受重创，金属被大量抛售，比特币也遭受重创。但债券几乎没有反应，通常在这种市场抛售中价格会攀升，但它们并没有。</p>
</div><p>This image is from February 5th, 2026, around noon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这张图片是 2026 年 2 月 5 日中午左右拍摄的。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Markets-futures-Feb-5th-2026.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Markets-futures-Feb-5th-2026.jpg"/></p>
<p>So where is all that money going?It’s going to money heaven.At least to the extent that people and firms have borrowed to invest or speculate.When those strategies get nervous, they close out their positions, selling whatever they’ve got, buying interest dries up relative to selling pressure, and things go down in price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，所有这些钱都去哪了？它们去了 ‘钱的天国’。至少在那些借钱投资或投机的人和公司中是这样。当这些策略变得紧张时，他们会平仓，抛售他们所拥有的，买入兴趣相对于卖出压力干涸，价格就会下跌。</p>
</div><p>That’s the sort of pattern you see when “liquidity dries up.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是你在 ‘流动性枯竭’ 时看到的模式。</p>
</div><p>If we look at the one-month returns for equities, we can easily see that there’s a rotation away from technology generally and AI very specifically, and finance to classic defensive stocks…and quite pointedly oil companies too.That’s an interesting thing to note since oil itself hasn’t moved up appreciably over the past year and is well below where it was a full year ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我们查看股票的一个月回报，可以很容易看到，资金正在从科技股普遍转向经典防御性股票，尤其是人工智能，以及金融股……而且显著地转向石油公司。这一点很有趣，因为石油本身在过去一年中并没有显著上涨，远低于一年前的水平。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/The-GReat-Rotation-Feb-2026.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/The-GReat-Rotation-Feb-2026.jpg"/></p>
<p>This is the sort of Great Rotation you see marking the tops of long bull runs.Big investors and institutions creep away from the sexy, high-flying momentum stocks and instead buy consumer defensive, utilities, REITs, and healthcare stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是你在长期牛市顶部看到的 ‘大轮换’。大型投资者和机构逐渐远离那些性感的、高飞的动量股，而是购买消费防御性、公共事业、房地产投资信托和医疗保健股票。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, significant silver product shortages exist in Europe, Asia, Australia, and the US.But that hasn’t stopped the banksters from slamming paper silver hard, with their usual retinue of sordid tricks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，欧洲、亚洲、澳大利亚和美国存在显著的白银产品短缺。但这并没有阻止银行家们用他们惯用的卑鄙手段猛烈抨击纸白银。</p>
</div><p>Those mainly consist of dumping massive volumes of paper contracts across a very tiny window of time late at night.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些手段主要包括在深夜的非常短时间内倾倒大量纸合约。</p>
</div><p>Last night was no exception, and, of course, there was no halt as ‘required’ by CME rule 589:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨晚也不例外，当然，按照 CME 规则 589 的要求并没有暂停交易：</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Silver-slam-Feb-4th-2026-NO-Halt.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Silver-slam-Feb-4th-2026-NO-Halt.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>“Let it rip!”</em> they said at the CME, as long as it’s to the downside.I have every confidence that a similar move to the upside would have had halts applied religiously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>_“让它继续！”_他们在 CME 说，只要是向下的。我相信，如果是向上的类似举动，肯定会严格执行暂停。</p>
</div><p>So tune in to hear more, and find out why having a risk-managed portfolio is a good way to manage the volatility that seems to be headed our way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以请收听更多内容，了解为什么拥有一个风险管理的投资组合是应对似乎即将到来的波动性的好方法。</p>
</div><p><em>Video Length: 01:19:10</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>视频时长：01:19:10</em></p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
</div><p>Either Trump’s Dollar Weakening Works Or It Doesn’t</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的美元贬值要么有效，要么无效</p>
</div><p>When The AI Bubble Bursts, The Damage Will Be Severe</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当人工智能泡沫破裂时，损失将是严重的</p>
</div><p>Overvalued Equities Are Ignoring These Seven Recession Indicators</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>被高估的股票正在忽视这七个衰退指标</p>
</div>

Has The Great Rotation Begun?

- 2026 年 1 月 26 日，美国金融市场经历流动性震荡，美元和日元上涨，商品价格下跌。  
- 2 月 5 日，再次出现流动性问题，股票及商品价格大幅下跌。  
- 投资者在避险，资金流向防御性股票，而高风险资产被抛售。

大轮动是否已经开始？