<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/30/00/28/dollar-1362244_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/30/00/28/dollar-1362244_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p><strong>美元本周在大多数 G10 货币中涨幅收窄。</strong> 澳元从今天早些时候创下的两周低点反弹，是本周唯一对美元上涨的 G10 货币。澳大利亚储备银行本周早些时候加息，市场提前预期将再次加息。美元本周的涨幅似乎主要是技术性因素，因为从 1 月中旬到下旬的急剧损失正在修正。动量指标警告称，反弹修正可能还有更多空间。</p>
<p><strong>美国 1 月就业报告原定今天发布，但由于政府再次关门，推迟到下周。</strong> 加拿大今天发布就业数据，但政策影响有限，因为加拿大央行预计将维持长时间的利率不变。美国 2-10 年期收益率曲线超过 70 个基点，为四年来最陡，备受关注。日本本周末将举行投票，首相高市早苗的自民党似乎将扩大支持。泰国本周末也将投票。</p>
<h3><strong>价格</strong></h3>
<p>G10</p>
<p>• <strong>欧元</strong> 昨日在 1.1800 美元附近波动，几乎在 25 个点的范围内。今天有价值 37 亿欧元的期权将在此到期，昨日有 34 亿欧元的期权也在此到期。欧元今天早些时候被抛售至两周低点，接近 1.1765 美元，随后反弹至接近 1.18 美元。动量指标警告称，向下修正可能尚未完成。</p>
<p>• 美元昨日连续第五个交易日突破了对 <strong>日元</strong> 的前一交易日高点。美元接近 JPY157.35，为 1 月 23 日以来的最佳水平，且美国官员进行了利率检查。美元几乎跌破昨日低点（约 JPY156.65），随后反弹至 JPY157，今天在此处有约 8.1 亿美元的期权到期。上周末收于 JPY154.80。</p>
<p>• 英国央行的鸽派维持和首相斯塔默的新打击使得 <strong>英镑</strong> 首次在三个月内下跌超过一美分。英镑对欧元的跌幅为自去年 8 月以来最大（约 0.75%）。英镑超出了从 1 月 19 日低点（约 1.3330 美元）到上周高点（约 1.3870 美元）的上涨幅度的 61.8% 回撤目标，回撤目标位于约 1.3535 美元。今天被抛售至两周低点，接近 1.3510 美元，随后反弹至约 1.3580 美元。20 日移动平均线约为 1.3575 美元。短期风险延伸至 1.3600-20 美元，尽管动量指标刚刚转向下行。</p>
<p>• 美元昨日首次在 <strong>加元</strong>1.3700 以上收盘，接近两周以来的首次。这一水平对应于自上个月中旬以来的下跌的 50% 回撤。后续买盘将其推高至今天的 CAD1.3725。今天在 CAD1.3700 的期权接近 7 亿美元到期。下一个回撤目标和 20 日移动平均线位于 1.3750-60 加元区域。然而，美元正在回落，并在欧洲早盘被抛售至略低于 CAD1.3680 的低点。昨日低点接近 CAD1.3655，突破该点将有助于稳定加元的走势。</p>
<p>• <strong>澳元</strong> 昨日跌至三天低点，接近 0.6940 美元。它已完全回吐了周二加息后所获得的涨幅。今天，它突破了周一的低点（约 0.6910 美元），并接近 0.6900 美元水平，那里有近 30 亿澳元的期权将在下周一和周二到期。澳元反弹至接近 0.6980 美元。昨日高点略高于 0.7005 美元。若收盘高于该水平，将提升技术面。</p>
<p>新兴市场</p>
<p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 对 Banxico 昨日决定将隔夜目标利率维持在 7.0% 的反应微弱，似乎暗示将延长暂停。美元昨日收于 MXN17.5075，今天上涨至 MXN17.5660，随后美元卖家出手，将美元推低至 MXN17.34。昨日低点略低于 MXN17.30。上周美元收于 MXN17.46。</p>
<p>• 中国人民银行今天连续第二个交易日将美元的基准汇率上调，这是今年的第三次。今天的参考汇率设定为 <strong>CNY</strong> 6.9590，昨日为 CNY6.9570，上周为 CNY6.9678。离岸人民币在狭窄范围内波动，美元保持在近期低点附近。美元接近 CNH6.9370，上周收于 CNH6.9585。</p>
<p>• 印度储备银行维持利率不变，美元回升至周二大幅低开所形成的缺口。今天美元达到 <strong>INR</strong> 90.8550。上周收于 INR91.99。最近几天在 INR90.00 附近形成了一个平台。</p>
<h3><strong>其他市场</strong></h3>
<p>• 昨日美国 <strong>股票</strong> 的急剧下跌对亚太市场造成了压力。除了日本和印度，大型股市普遍下跌。欧洲的 Stoxx 600 指数，因科技股暴露较少，昨日下跌 1% 后上涨约 0.3%。美国指数期货上涨 0.3%-0.6%。</p>
<p>• <strong>基准 10 年期收益率</strong> 今天大多下跌。日本 10 年期收益率下滑近 1 个基点，欧洲的收益率下跌 2-3 个基点。10 年期美国国债收益率有所上升，但仍低于 4.20%。本周下降约 8 个基点。</p>
<p>• 在亚洲初步跟随卖盘后，<strong>黄金和白银</strong> 反弹上涨。黄金被抛售至接近 4655 美元，现在回升至接近 4890 美元。白银一度飙升至接近 64 美元，为自去年 12 月以来的低点，但随后反弹，目前接近 75 美元。</p>
<p>• <strong>3 月 WTI</strong> 在约 62.30 美元和 64.60 美元之间整理，市场在等待关于美伊谈判的消息。上周收于约 65.20 美元。</p>
<h3><strong>数据</strong></h3>
<p>• <strong>美国</strong> 原定于今天发布 1 月份的就业报告，但政府停摆再次打乱了日程。这使得初步的 2 月份密歇根大学消费者调查成为今天唯一的经济报告。尽管过去两个月情绪有所改善，但情绪可能有所下滑，而通胀预期可能保持在 1 月份的水平：1 年期和 5-10 年期的预期分别为 4.0% 和 3.3%。</p>
<p>• <strong>加拿大</strong> 将提供其劳动力市场的月度更新。在 12 月份全职职位激增 51.4 千后，预计 1 月份难以重复这一情况。失业率预计保持在 6.8%。由于加拿大央行被认为将维持较长时间的利率不变，因此即使报告存在头条风险，政策影响也微乎其微。</p>
<p>• 在 <strong>德国</strong> 昨天报告的 12 月份工厂订单激增 7.8% 之后，德国意外报告工业产出下降 1.9%。这些订单主要集中在国内客户，但今天报告的 12 月份贸易顺差为 171 亿欧元，超出预期，得益于出口增长 4%。</p>
<p>• <strong>日本</strong> 报告了令人失望的 12 月份家庭支出，同比下降了 2.6%。彭博社调查的中位数预测为下降 0.3%。日本将在周日举行下院选举，民调显示自民党有机会重新夺回多数席位。在过去，自民党即使在政治上不必要的情况下也维持与公明党的联盟。我们怀疑这将是与其新联盟伙伴日本创新党的情况。</p>
<p>• <strong>泰国</strong> 将在周日举行大选，政治气候的分裂性质警告称，组建下届政府可能需要一些时间。还有关于宪法改革意愿的是/否公投。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>欧洲央行和英格兰银行将维持现状，而美元大多走强</p>
<p>周日的选举前景对日元施加压力</p>
<p>澳大利亚储备银行加息，并预计今年再加一次</p>

澳元 做多 - CurrencyShares

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

<p>本周，美元对大多数 G10 货币有所走软，只有澳元在澳大利亚储备银行加息后有所上涨。美元近期的涨幅似乎是技术性反弹，修正了 1 月份的损失。由于政府停摆，美国就业报告被推迟。欧元和英镑面临下行压力，而加元则趋于稳定。墨西哥比索和印度卢比对中央银行的决策反应有限。总体而言，美元的表现因各种经济指标和即将举行的日本和泰国选举而显得复杂</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/30/00/28/dollar-1362244_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/30/00/28/dollar-1362244_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p><strong>The US dollar is seeing this week’s gains pared against most of the G10 currencies today.</strong> The Australian dollar has recovered from a two-week low set earlier today and is the only G10 currency that has gained on the greenback this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates earlier this week and the market has brought forward its expectation for another hike. The dollar’s gains this week seemed to be largely technical in nature as the correction to the sharp losses from mid- to late January are retraced. The momentum indicators warn the upside correction may have more room to run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美元本周在大多数 G10 货币中涨幅收窄。</strong> 澳元从今天早些时候创下的两周低点反弹，是本周唯一对美元上涨的 G10 货币。澳大利亚储备银行本周早些时候加息，市场提前预期将再次加息。美元本周的涨幅似乎主要是技术性因素，因为从 1 月中旬到下旬的急剧损失正在修正。动量指标警告称，反弹修正可能还有更多空间。</p>
</div><p><strong>US January jobs report was due today, but another government shutdown delays it until next week.</strong> Canada reports its jobs figures today, but the policy impact is minimal as the Bank of Canada seen on a long hold. The US 2-10-year yield curve is above 70 bp, the steepest in four years, and is drawing attention. Japan votes this weekend, and the Prime Minister Takaichi’s LDP looks set to expand its support. Thailand also votes this weekend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美国 1 月就业报告原定今天发布，但由于政府再次关门，推迟到下周。</strong> 加拿大今天发布就业数据，但政策影响有限，因为加拿大央行预计将维持长时间的利率不变。美国 2-10 年期收益率曲线超过 70 个基点，为四年来最陡，备受关注。日本本周末将举行投票，首相高市早苗的自民党似乎将扩大支持。泰国本周末也将投票。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Prices</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>价格</strong></h3>
</div><p>G10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>G10</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>euro</strong> spent yesterday in an almost 25-tick range on either side of $1.1800. Options for 3.7 bln euros expire there today after 3.4 bln euro options expired there yesterday. The euro was sold to a two-week low earlier today, near $1.1765 before recovering to probe $1.18 io Europe. The momentum indicators warn that the downside correction is probably not complete.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>欧元</strong> 昨日在 1.1800 美元附近波动，几乎在 25 个点的范围内。今天有价值 37 亿欧元的期权将在此到期，昨日有 34 亿欧元的期权也在此到期。欧元今天早些时候被抛售至两周低点，接近 1.1765 美元，随后反弹至接近 1.18 美元。动量指标警告称，向下修正可能尚未完成。</p>
</div><p>• The dollar took out the previous session high against the <strong>yen</strong> for the fifth consecutive session yesterday. The greenback reached almost JPY157.35, its best level since January 23 and the rate-check by US officials. The dollar barely slipped through yesterday’s low (~JPY156.65) before recovering back to JPY157, where there are about $810 mln in options that today. It settled near JPY154.80 at the end of last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 美元昨日连续第五个交易日突破了对 <strong>日元</strong> 的前一交易日高点。美元接近 JPY157.35，为 1 月 23 日以来的最佳水平，且美国官员进行了利率检查。美元几乎跌破昨日低点（约 JPY156.65），随后反弹至 JPY157，今天在此处有约 8.1 亿美元的期权到期。上周末收于 JPY154.80。</p>
</div><p>• A combination of a dovish hold by the Bank of England and new knocks on Prime Minister Starmer saw <strong>sterling</strong> tumble more than a cent for the first time in three months. It lost the most to the euro (~0.75%) since last August. Sterling overshot the (61.8%) retracement objective of its run-up from the January 19 low (~$1.3330) to the last week’s high (~$1.3870) that is found near $1.3535. It was sold to a two-week low near $1.3510 today before catching a bid that saw it recover to about $1.3580. The 20-day moving average is about $1.3575. Near-term risk extends to $1.3600-20, though the momentum indicators have only just turned lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 英国央行的鸽派维持和首相斯塔默的新打击使得 <strong>英镑</strong> 首次在三个月内下跌超过一美分。英镑对欧元的跌幅为自去年 8 月以来最大（约 0.75%）。英镑超出了从 1 月 19 日低点（约 1.3330 美元）到上周高点（约 1.3870 美元）的上涨幅度的 61.8% 回撤目标，回撤目标位于约 1.3535 美元。今天被抛售至两周低点，接近 1.3510 美元，随后反弹至约 1.3580 美元。20 日移动平均线约为 1.3575 美元。短期风险延伸至 1.3600-20 美元，尽管动量指标刚刚转向下行。</p>
</div><p>• The US dollar settled above <strong>CAD</strong> 1.3700 yesterday for the first time in nearly two weeks. That area corresponded to the (50%) retracement of the decline since the middle of last month. Follow-through buying lifted it to CAD1.3725 today. Options for almost $700 mln at CAD1.3700 expire today. The next retracement target and 20-day moving average are in the $1.3750-60 area. However, dollar is reversing lower and has been sold to session lows in the European morning slightly below CAD1.3680. Yesterday’s low was near CAD1.3655 and a break of it would help stabilize the Canadian dollar’s tone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 美元昨日首次在 <strong>加元</strong>1.3700 以上收盘，接近两周以来的首次。这一水平对应于自上个月中旬以来的下跌的 50% 回撤。后续买盘将其推高至今天的 CAD1.3725。今天在 CAD1.3700 的期权接近 7 亿美元到期。下一个回撤目标和 20 日移动平均线位于 1.3750-60 加元区域。然而，美元正在回落，并在欧洲早盘被抛售至略低于 CAD1.3680 的低点。昨日低点接近 CAD1.3655，突破该点将有助于稳定加元的走势。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Australian dollar</strong> fell to a three-day low yesterday near $0.6940. It has completely unwound the gains registered in the wake of Tuesday’s rate hike. Today, it took out Monday’s low (~ $0.6910) and frayed the $0.6900 level, where options for almost A$3 bln are struck at $0.6900 that expire Monday and Tuesday next week. The Aussie has rebounded to almost $0.6980. Yesterday’s high was a little above $0.7005. A close above it would lift the technical tone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>澳元</strong> 昨日跌至三天低点，接近 0.6940 美元。它已完全回吐了周二加息后所获得的涨幅。今天，它突破了周一的低点（约 0.6910 美元），并接近 0.6900 美元水平，那里有近 30 亿澳元的期权将在下周一和周二到期。澳元反弹至接近 0.6980 美元。昨日高点略高于 0.7005 美元。若收盘高于该水平，将提升技术面。</p>
</div><p>EM</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新兴市场</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Mexican peso</strong> barely reacted to yesterday’s decision by Banxico to leave its overnight target rate at 7.0% and seemed to signal an extended pause. The dollar settled near MXN17.5075 yesterday and rose to MXN17.5660 today before dollar sellers made a stand and sent the greenback through MXN17.34. Yesterday’s low was a touch below MXN17.30. The US dollar settled last week near MXN17.46.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 对 Banxico 昨日决定将隔夜目标利率维持在 7.0% 的反应微弱，似乎暗示将延长暂停。美元昨日收于 MXN17.5075，今天上涨至 MXN17.5660，随后美元卖家出手，将美元推低至 MXN17.34。昨日低点略低于 MXN17.30。上周美元收于 MXN17.46。</p>
</div><p>• The PBOC set the dollar’s fix higher for the second consecutive session today for the third time this year. Today’s reference rate was set at <strong>CNY</strong> 6.9590 after CNY6.9570 yesterday and CNY6.9678 a week ago. The offshore yuan is in a narrow range as the greenback remains in its recent trough. The dollar is near CNH6.9370 and settled last week around CNH6.9585.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 中国人民银行今天连续第二个交易日将美元的基准汇率上调，这是今年的第三次。今天的参考汇率设定为 <strong>CNY</strong> 6.9590，昨日为 CNY6.9570，上周为 CNY6.9678。离岸人民币在狭窄范围内波动，美元保持在近期低点附近。美元接近 CNH6.9370，上周收于 CNH6.9585。</p>
</div><p>• The Reserve Bank of India stood pat and the dollar recovered to trade into the gap created by Tuesday’s sharply lower opening. The greenback reached <strong>INR</strong> 90.8550 today. It settled near INR91.99 a week ago. A shelf has been forged in recent days near INR90.00.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 印度储备银行维持利率不变，美元回升至周二大幅低开所形成的缺口。今天美元达到 <strong>INR</strong> 90.8550。上周收于 INR91.99。最近几天在 INR90.00 附近形成了一个平台。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Other Markets</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>其他市场</strong></h3>
</div><p>• The steep losses in US <strong>equities</strong> yesterday weighed on Asia Pacific markets today. Outside of Japan and India, the large bourses tumbled. Europe’s Stoxx 600, with less tech exposure, is up around 0.3% after losing 1% yesterday. US index futures are 0.3%-0.6% higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 昨日美国 <strong>股票</strong> 的急剧下跌对亚太市场造成了压力。除了日本和印度，大型股市普遍下跌。欧洲的 Stoxx 600 指数，因科技股暴露较少，昨日下跌 1% 后上涨约 0.3%。美国指数期货上涨 0.3%-0.6%。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Benchmark 10-year yields</strong> are mostly lower today. Japan’s 10-year yield slipped almost 1 bp and yields are 2-3 bp lower in Europe. The 10-year US Treasury yield is firmer but below 4.20%. It is off about eight basis points this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>基准 10 年期收益率</strong> 今天大多下跌。日本 10 年期收益率下滑近 1 个基点，欧洲的收益率下跌 2-3 个基点。10 年期美国国债收益率有所上升，但仍低于 4.20%。本周下降约 8 个基点。</p>
</div><p>• After initial follow-through selling in Asia, <strong>gold and silver</strong> have reversed higher. Gold was sold to almost $4655 and is now back to nearly $4890. Silver spiked to almost $64, a low since mid-December but rebounded and is now near $75.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在亚洲初步跟随卖盘后，<strong>黄金和白银</strong> 反弹上涨。黄金被抛售至接近 4655 美元，现在回升至接近 4890 美元。白银一度飙升至接近 64 美元，为自去年 12 月以来的低点，但随后反弹，目前接近 75 美元。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>March WTI</strong> is consolidating between around $62.30 and $64.60 as the market awaits news on the US-Iran talks. It settled near $65.20 a week ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>3 月 WTI</strong> 在约 62.30 美元和 64.60 美元之间整理，市场在等待关于美伊谈判的消息。上周收于约 65.20 美元。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Data</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>数据</strong></h3>
</div><p>• The <strong>US</strong> was supposed to release the January jobs report today, but the government shutdown interrupted the schedule (again). That leaves the preliminary February University of Michigan consumer survey as the only economic report of the day. Sentiment may have slipped after improving for the past two months, while the inflation expectations could be stable at January levels: 4.0% and 3.3% for the 1-year and 5-10-year projections, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>美国</strong> 原定于今天发布 1 月份的就业报告，但政府停摆再次打乱了日程。这使得初步的 2 月份密歇根大学消费者调查成为今天唯一的经济报告。尽管过去两个月情绪有所改善，但情绪可能有所下滑，而通胀预期可能保持在 1 月份的水平：1 年期和 5-10 年期的预期分别为 4.0% 和 3.3%。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Canada</strong> will provide its monthly update on the labor market. After full-time positions jumped 51.4 k in December, it is difficult to anticipate a repeat in January. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.8%. With the Bank of Canada seen to be on an extended hold, the policy implications are negligible, even if the report poses headline risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>加拿大</strong> 将提供其劳动力市场的月度更新。在 12 月份全职职位激增 51.4 千后，预计 1 月份难以重复这一情况。失业率预计保持在 6.8%。由于加拿大央行被认为将维持较长时间的利率不变，因此即使报告存在头条风险，政策影响也微乎其微。</p>
</div><p>• On the heels of the 7.8% surge in <strong>Germany’s</strong> December factory orders reported yesterday, the strongest in couple of years, Germany reported an unexpected 1.9% drop in industrial output. The orders were heavily weighted to domestic customers, but the December trade surplus, also reported today, was larger than expected at 17.1 bln euros, bolstered by a 4% increase in exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在 <strong>德国</strong> 昨天报告的 12 月份工厂订单激增 7.8% 之后，德国意外报告工业产出下降 1.9%。这些订单主要集中在国内客户，但今天报告的 12 月份贸易顺差为 171 亿欧元，超出预期，得益于出口增长 4%。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Japan</strong> reported disappointing December household spending. It was a whopping 2.6% lower than a year ago. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey was for a 0.3% decline. Japan holds the lower house election on Sunday, and polls show the LDP with a chance to recapture a majority. In the past, maintained its alliance with the Komeito Party even though there were times that it might not have been politically necessary. We suspect this will be the case with its new alliance partner, Japan’s Innovation Party.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>日本</strong> 报告了令人失望的 12 月份家庭支出，同比下降了 2.6%。彭博社调查的中位数预测为下降 0.3%。日本将在周日举行下院选举，民调显示自民党有机会重新夺回多数席位。在过去，自民党即使在政治上不必要的情况下也维持与公明党的联盟。我们怀疑这将是与其新联盟伙伴日本创新党的情况。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Thailand</strong> holds its general election Sunday, and the fragmented nature of its political climate warns that it may take some time to form the next government. There is also a yes/no referendum on the desire for constitutional reform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>泰国</strong> 将在周日举行大选，政治气候的分裂性质警告称，组建下届政府可能需要一些时间。还有关于宪法改革意愿的是/否公投。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>ECB And BoE To Stand Pat, While USD Is Mostly Firmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行和英格兰银行将维持现状，而美元大多走强</p>
</div><p>Sunday's Election Prospects Weigh On The Yen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周日的选举前景对日元施加压力</p>
</div><p>Reserve Bank Of Australia Hikes Rates And Sees Another This Year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳大利亚储备银行加息，并预计今年再加一次</p>
</div>

在延续涨势之后，美元有所回软