<p>作者：Claudia Assis 和 Bill Peters</p>
<p>下一个化妆品 “繁荣周期” 可能即将到来，受到 Z 世代对 2016 年一切事物的怀旧情绪的推动</p>
<p>考特尼·卡戴珊、金·卡戴珊和克里斯·詹娜于 2016 年 10 月参加了巴黎时装周。十年后，她们当年的一些造型再次成为潮流。</p>
<p>最近的社交媒体趋势让人们分享 2016 年的照片，怀念博主尚未转变为网红、社交媒体对许多人来说仍然是新鲜事物的时代。</p>
<p>对于投资者来说，这种 2016 年的怀旧情绪也提供了一个可能性：它可能推动美容产品，特别是化妆品的下一个超级周期，惠及像化妆品制造商 e.l.f. Beauty（ELF）和专业零售商 Ulta Beauty（ULTA）这样的公司。毕竟，2016 年是浓妆艳抹的黄金时代，随后是 “无妆妆” 的潮流。</p>
<p>根据市场研究公司 eMarketer 的预测，化妆品行业预计今年将增长超过 4%，并有望成为零售增长的领导者。尽管现在还为时尚早，该公司预计今年将恢复色彩丰富的化妆品，继几年的清新风格、中性色调和由像 Rhode 创始人海莉·比伯引领的 “干净女孩” 美学之后。</p>
<p>行业分析师并没有判断所有年龄段的人都会完全回归 2016 年的化妆风格，但杰富瑞分析师悉尼·瓦格纳表示，确实有一种从无妆潮流中转变的趋势。</p>
<p>“人们可能不会再使用紫色眼影，但他们可能会回归眼线” 或尝试一些不同的东西，分析师说。“根据经验，人们对干净、简约的妆容感到有些厌倦”，她说，转而追求更具创意和大胆的妆容作为自我表达的方式。</p>
<p>eMarketer 的零售和电子商务分析师斯凯·卡纳维斯表示，对 2016 年的怀旧情绪可能会重新点燃对一些当时流行品牌的兴趣。</p>
<p>“我不知道我们是否会完全回到 2016 年，因为那种美学现在看起来有点过时，” 她说。“但确实有更多人对尝试彩妆感兴趣的空间。”</p>
<p>‘回归模拟’</p>
<p>如果对年长者来说，2016 年似乎只是昨天，那么对推动新趋势的 Z 世代消费者来说，这一年则代表着在更压缩的怀旧尺度上更简单的时代。</p>
<p>谷歌（GOOG）（GOOGL）对 “模拟包” 的搜索——一种包含拼图和编织等动手活动和娱乐的包或篮子，没有屏幕——上个月创下了记录。对 “回归模拟” 的搜索在 12 月达到了历史新高，因为人们试图减少屏幕时间或完全避免它。</p>
<p>香水也正处于一个时刻，尤其是在千禧一代和 Z 世代购物者中。推动这一行业增长的部分原因是年轻一代对 “香水衣橱” 的偏好，每种情绪都有一种香气，而不是老一代人偏爱的那一两款签名香水。</p>
<p>上一个化妆品超级周期始于 2012 年，并持续到 2018 年左右。随着社交媒体的发展，自拍变得越来越普遍，美容标准与名人金·卡戴珊的外貌密切相关，尤其是在眼妆和面部修容产品方面。较小的、更加小众的化妆品制造商创造了大胆的妆容，网红开始在社交媒体上提供化妆教程。</p>
<p>“在那段时间，美容真正实现了民主化，因为创作者教人们如何在自己家中实现专业级的妆容，” 卡纳维斯说。“我们开始看到更多的复杂妆容，包括修容和浓重的眼影。”</p>
<p>过去十年的化妆品极简主义在疫情爆发前逐渐减弱，疫情前强劲的护肤周期在此后几年中蓬勃发展。</p>
<p>当前自然、轻松妆容的流行也受到多年来向健康生活的转变的推动，以及向那些让人们感到某种方式而不仅仅是看起来某种方式的产品的转变，卡纳维斯说。</p>
<p>贝尔德的分析师温迪·尼科尔森表示，尽管 2016 年的特征对某些人可能具有吸引力，但对美容产品的偏好将根据年龄和人口统计继续有所不同。</p>
<p>更成熟的消费者可能会坚持自然、低调的妆容，她说。在针对老年人口的品牌中，如 Jones Road、Saie 和 Counter，色彩调色板 “通常较为柔和”。</p>
<p>“对于年轻消费者，我们认为色彩是重中之重。塞莱娜·戈麦斯的 Rare Beauty 品牌在 Ulta 的成功推出就是一个证明，” 她说。在青少年中，其他例子包括唇彩和鲜艳色彩的痘痘贴的持续受欢迎。</p>
<p>灵活的供应链</p>
<p>e.l.f. Beauty 在周三晚些时候报告了超出预期的季度业绩，并提高了年度展望，可能是 2016 年趋势的 “明显赢家”，瓦格纳说。</p>
<p>e.l.f.去年以 10 亿美元收购了 Rhode，因此它在 “干净” 美学领域有一些可以提供的东西，同时也可以在其常规系列中更加大胆。e.l.f.预计 Rhode 今年的销售额将在 2.6 亿到 2.65 亿美元之间，而早期的预期为 2 亿美元。</p>
<p>这家化妆品和护肤产品制造商拥有 “极其灵活的供应链”，在某些情况下能够在短短九周内从创意到零售商的货架，瓦格纳说。</p>
<p>这比以往任何时候都更为重要，因为趋势的更替速度比过去更快。美容行业的一些传统参与者，如 Coty（COTY）和雅诗兰黛（EL），的周转时间通常以月为单位，而不是以周为单位，尽管他们也在努力更快地将创新推向消费者。</p>
<p>雅诗兰黛周四报告了季度收益，超出预期并提高了利润展望，尽管未能满足高投资者预期。</p>
<p>华尔街也将 Ulta 视为潜在赢家，并且在快速变化的化妆趋势中处于有利位置。人们可能不愿意购买多种不同品牌的护肤产品，但他们更可能在化妆包中添加多种色调或配方。</p>
<p>在零售巨头中，Target（塔吉特）最近宣布将在春季推动美容和化妆产品进入其门店。与此同时，E.l.f.已经开始在 Dollar General（美元店）等商店销售更多美容产品。</p>
<p>-Claudia Assis -Bill Peters</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>02-07-26 0800ET</p>

艾尔塔美发化妆香水商店

<p>Z 世代对 2016 年的怀旧情绪正在推动美容行业的潜在繁荣，惠及像 e.l.f. Beauty 和 Ulta Beauty 这样的品牌。分析师建议，从 “无妆” 趋势转向更大胆的妆容风格，回忆起 2016 年。预计化妆品市场今年将增长超过 4%，对色彩丰富的化妆品重新产生兴趣。尽管不同年龄段的偏好各异，但年轻消费者更倾向于鲜艳的产品，这在 Selena Gomez 的 Rare Beauty 的成功中得到了体现。e.l.f. Beauty 最近报告了强劲的收益并上调了前景，为这一趋势做好了良好的定位</p>

<p>By Claudia Assis and Bill Peters</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Claudia Assis 和 Bill Peters</p>
</div><p>The next makeup 'boom cycle' may be ahead, fueled by Gen Z's nostalgia for all things 2016</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一个化妆品 “繁荣周期” 可能即将到来，受到 Z 世代对 2016 年一切事物的怀旧情绪的推动</p>
</div><p>Kourtney Kardashian, Kim Kardashian and Kris Jenner attended Paris Fashion Week in October 2016. Ten years later, some of their looks from that year are trending again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考特尼·卡戴珊、金·卡戴珊和克里斯·詹娜于 2016 年 10 月参加了巴黎时装周。十年后，她们当年的一些造型再次成为潮流。</p>
</div><p>A recent social-media trend has people sharing photos from 2016 and yearning for a time when bloggers had not yet turned into influencers and social media still was something of a novelty for many.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的社交媒体趋势让人们分享 2016 年的照片，怀念博主尚未转变为网红、社交媒体对许多人来说仍然是新鲜事物的时代。</p>
</div><p>For investors, that 2016 nostalgia also offers a possibility: It could fuel the next supercycle for beauty products, specifically makeup, benefiting companies such as cosmetics maker e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) and specialty retailer Ulta Beauty (ULTA). After all, 2016 was a heyday for a heavier, bolder makeup look, only to be followed by &#34;no-makeup makeup&#34; trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资者来说，这种 2016 年的怀旧情绪也提供了一个可能性：它可能推动美容产品，特别是化妆品的下一个超级周期，惠及像化妆品制造商 e.l.f. Beauty（ELF）和专业零售商 Ulta Beauty（ULTA）这样的公司。毕竟，2016 年是浓妆艳抹的黄金时代，随后是 “无妆妆” 的潮流。</p>
</div><p>The cosmetics industry is expected to grow by more than 4% this year and is poised to be a retail growth leader, according to market-research firm eMarketer. While it's still early, the firm expects a return to colorful cosmetics this year, following several years of cleaner styles, neutral palettes and a &#34;clean girl&#34; aesthetic ushered in by influencers like Rhode founder Hailey Bieber.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据市场研究公司 eMarketer 的预测，化妆品行业预计今年将增长超过 4%，并有望成为零售增长的领导者。尽管现在还为时尚早，该公司预计今年将恢复色彩丰富的化妆品，继几年的清新风格、中性色调和由像 Rhode 创始人海莉·比伯引领的 “干净女孩” 美学之后。</p>
</div><p>Industry analysts aren't making the call that people of all ages will fully revert to 2016 makeup styles, but there's definitely a shift away from the no-makeup trend, Jefferies analyst Sydney Wagner said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行业分析师并没有判断所有年龄段的人都会完全回归 2016 年的化妆风格，但杰富瑞分析师悉尼·瓦格纳表示，确实有一种从无妆潮流中转变的趋势。</p>
</div><p>&#34;People may not wear purple eyeshadow, but they might return to eyeliner&#34; or push into something different, the analyst said. &#34;Anecdotally, people are kind of bored by the clean, no-frills makeup look&#34; and are into more creative, bolder looks as a means of self-expression, she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“人们可能不会再使用紫色眼影，但他们可能会回归眼线” 或尝试一些不同的东西，分析师说。“根据经验，人们对干净、简约的妆容感到有些厌倦”，她说，转而追求更具创意和大胆的妆容作为自我表达的方式。</p>
</div><p>Sky Canaves, a retail and e-commerce analyst at eMarketer, said the nostalgia for 2016 could reignite interest in some of the brands that were popular then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>eMarketer 的零售和电子商务分析师斯凯·卡纳维斯表示，对 2016 年的怀旧情绪可能会重新点燃对一些当时流行品牌的兴趣。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't know if we'll go full 2016, because that aesthetic now does look a little bit dated,&#34; she said. &#34;But there's certainly room for more interest in experimenting with color cosmetics.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我不知道我们是否会完全回到 2016 年，因为那种美学现在看起来有点过时，” 她说。“但确实有更多人对尝试彩妆感兴趣的空间。”</p>
</div><p>'Going analog'</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘回归模拟’</p>
</div><p>If 2016 may feel like just yesterday to older people, for Gen Z consumers driving newer trends, the year speaks to simpler times on a much more compressed nostalgia scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果对年长者来说，2016 年似乎只是昨天，那么对推动新趋势的 Z 世代消费者来说，这一年则代表着在更压缩的怀旧尺度上更简单的时代。</p>
</div><p>Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) searches for &#34;analog bag&#34; - a bag or basket containing hands-on activities and entertainment such as puzzles and knitting, with no screens - hit a record last month, the company said. Searches for &#34;going analog&#34; reached an all-time high in December as people try to cut back on screen time or eschew it altogether.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌（GOOG）（GOOGL）对 “模拟包” 的搜索——一种包含拼图和编织等动手活动和娱乐的包或篮子，没有屏幕——上个月创下了记录。对 “回归模拟” 的搜索在 12 月达到了历史新高，因为人们试图减少屏幕时间或完全避免它。</p>
</div><p>Fragrance is also having a moment, particularly among millennials and Gen Z shoppers. Part of what has boosted the industry is younger generations' penchant for &#34;fragrance wardrobes,&#34; with a scent to suit every mood, rather than the one or two signature perfumes favored by older generations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香水也正处于一个时刻，尤其是在千禧一代和 Z 世代购物者中。推动这一行业增长的部分原因是年轻一代对 “香水衣橱” 的偏好，每种情绪都有一种香气，而不是老一代人偏爱的那一两款签名香水。</p>
</div><p>The last makeup supercycle started around 2012 and continued through about 2018. Selfies were becoming more prevalent as social media grew, and standards of beauty hewed close to celebrity Kim Kardashian's looks, especially in regards to eye makeup and products used for face contouring. Smaller, more niche cosmetics makers created bold looks, and influencers started offering makeup tutorials on social media.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上一个化妆品超级周期始于 2012 年，并持续到 2018 年左右。随着社交媒体的发展，自拍变得越来越普遍，美容标准与名人金·卡戴珊的外貌密切相关，尤其是在眼妆和面部修容产品方面。较小的、更加小众的化妆品制造商创造了大胆的妆容，网红开始在社交媒体上提供化妆教程。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It really democratized beauty during that period, because of creators teaching people how to achieve professional-grade makeup looks in their own homes,&#34; Canaves said. &#34;We started to see a lot more intensive makeup looks, with contouring and heavy eye shadow application.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在那段时间，美容真正实现了民主化，因为创作者教人们如何在自己家中实现专业级的妆容，” 卡纳维斯说。“我们开始看到更多的复杂妆容，包括修容和浓重的眼影。”</p>
</div><p>The makeup maximalism of the last decade wound down before the pandemic hit, with a stronger skin-care cycle picking up before the pandemic and booming in the years since.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去十年的化妆品极简主义在疫情爆发前逐渐减弱，疫情前强劲的护肤周期在此后几年中蓬勃发展。</p>
</div><p>The current reign of natural, effortless looks has also been propelled by a years-long move toward wellness, and a shift toward products that make people feel a certain way rather than simply look a certain way, Canaves said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前自然、轻松妆容的流行也受到多年来向健康生活的转变的推动，以及向那些让人们感到某种方式而不仅仅是看起来某种方式的产品的转变，卡纳维斯说。</p>
</div><p>Wendy Nicholson, an analyst at Baird, says that while the hallmarks of 2016 may be appealing to some, preferences for beauty products will continue to be different based on age and demographics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贝尔德的分析师温迪·尼科尔森表示，尽管 2016 年的特征对某些人可能具有吸引力，但对美容产品的偏好将根据年龄和人口统计继续有所不同。</p>
</div><p>More mature consumers are likely to stick with natural, subtler looks, she said. At brands that target older demographics, such as Jones Road, Saie and Counter, color palettes are &#34;generally subdued.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更成熟的消费者可能会坚持自然、低调的妆容，她说。在针对老年人口的品牌中，如 Jones Road、Saie 和 Counter，色彩调色板 “通常较为柔和”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;For younger consumers, we believe that color is front and center. The blowout success of the launch of Selena Gomez's Rare Beauty brand at Ulta is a testament to this,&#34; she said. Among teens, other examples include the ongoing popularity of lip stains and brightly colored pimple patches.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对于年轻消费者，我们认为色彩是重中之重。塞莱娜·戈麦斯的 Rare Beauty 品牌在 Ulta 的成功推出就是一个证明，” 她说。在青少年中，其他例子包括唇彩和鲜艳色彩的痘痘贴的持续受欢迎。</p>
</div><p>A nimble supply chain</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>灵活的供应链</p>
</div><p>E.l.f. Beauty, which late Wednesday reported a better-than-expected quarter and raised its outlook for the year, could be the &#34;clear winner&#34; from the 2016 trend, Wagner said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>e.l.f. Beauty 在周三晚些时候报告了超出预期的季度业绩，并提高了年度展望，可能是 2016 年趋势的 “明显赢家”，瓦格纳说。</p>
</div><p>E.l.f. bought Rhode for $1 billion last year, so it has something to offer in the &#34;clean&#34; aesthetics arena while it can go bolder in its regular line. E.l.f. expects Rhode to deliver around $260 million to $265 million in sales for the year, compared with earlier expectations for $200 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>e.l.f.去年以 10 亿美元收购了 Rhode，因此它在 “干净” 美学领域有一些可以提供的东西，同时也可以在其常规系列中更加大胆。e.l.f.预计 Rhode 今年的销售额将在 2.6 亿到 2.65 亿美元之间，而早期的预期为 2 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The maker of cosmetics and skin-care products has &#34;an incredibly nimble supply chain&#34; and is capable in some instances of going from idea to retailers' shelves in as little as nine weeks, Wagner said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家化妆品和护肤产品制造商拥有 “极其灵活的供应链”，在某些情况下能够在短短九周内从创意到零售商的货架，瓦格纳说。</p>
</div><p>That's more important than ever, because trends are cycling through faster than in the past. Some legacy players in the beauty industry, such as Coty (COTY) and Estée Lauder (EL), work with much longer turnaround times, measured in months, not weeks, although they've also been working to get their innovations to consumers more quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这比以往任何时候都更为重要，因为趋势的更替速度比过去更快。美容行业的一些传统参与者，如 Coty（COTY）和雅诗兰黛（EL），的周转时间通常以月为单位，而不是以周为单位，尽管他们也在努力更快地将创新推向消费者。</p>
</div><p>Estée Lauder reported quarterly earnings on Thursday, beating earnings expectations and raising its profit outlook, although not by enough to meet high investor expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雅诗兰黛周四报告了季度收益，超出预期并提高了利润展望，尽管未能满足高投资者预期。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street also sees Ulta as a potential winner and as well positioned to capitalize on fast-changing makeup trends. People may be reluctant to buy several different brands of skin-care products, but they are more likely to add a variety of shades or formulations to their makeup bags.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街也将 Ulta 视为潜在赢家，并且在快速变化的化妆趋势中处于有利位置。人们可能不愿意购买多种不同品牌的护肤产品，但他们更可能在化妆包中添加多种色调或配方。</p>
</div><p>Among retail giants, Target (TGT) recently announced a push toward beauty and makeup products hitting its stores in the spring. E.l.f., meanwhile, has started selling more beauty products at stores like Dollar General (DG).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在零售巨头中，Target（塔吉特）最近宣布将在春季推动美容和化妆产品进入其门店。与此同时，E.l.f.已经开始在 Dollar General（美元店）等商店销售更多美容产品。</p>
</div><p>-Claudia Assis -Bill Peters</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Claudia Assis -Bill Peters</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>02-07-26 0800ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-07-26 0800ET</p>
</div>

Z 世代对 2016 年充满热情，e.l.f.和 Ulta 等美容股正在借助这股怀旧潮流