<p>作者：Christine Ji</p>
<p>市场已经发声：它不喜欢 “四大” 超大规模企业的巨额人工智能支出狂潮。但这些公司仍在全速前进。</p>
<p>好事会不会变成坏事？如果所说的 “好事” 是人工智能投资，那么大型科技公司和华尔街开始出现分歧。在这个过程中，迄今为止支配人工智能交易的基本原则也在逐渐侵蚀。</p>
<p>引领人工智能基础设施热潮的 “四大” 超大规模企业——Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG)、Amazon.com (AMZN)、Meta Platforms (META) 和 Microsoft (MSFT)——计划在 2026 年共同支出 6500 亿美元，用于为数据中心配备芯片并投资其内部架构。这比 2025 年的支出增加了 60%。</p>
<p>一年前，资本支出的增长推动了这些公司的股票上涨，因为华尔街将投资视为创新的标志。如今，随着全球四大公司准备在 2026 年支出相当于阿根廷 GDP 的金额，人工智能交易的风险大大增加。Alphabet、Amazon 和 Microsoft 的股票在最近几周的财报发布后立即下跌，因为它们的支出计划掩盖了任何正面的收入加速消息。虽然 Meta 的股票最初上涨，但在接下来的几天里迅速回吐了所有涨幅。</p>
<p>但对于超大规模企业而言，人工智能既代表着一代人的机会，也对其业务构成威胁，促使它们之间展开支出竞争，Simplify Asset Management 的首席策略师兼投资组合经理 Michael Green 告诉 MarketWatch。人工智能承诺从根本上重塑世界搜索、购物、广告和编写代码的机制，几乎没有一个角落不受到这些科技公司领域的影响。</p>
<p>“他们告诉我们这是生死攸关的，” Green 说。“一个理性的市场会对此进行定价。不幸的是，我们并不处于一个理性的市场。”</p>
<p>阅读：大型科技公司需要惊人的 1.5 万亿美元来资助人工智能热潮。这是它们用来获得资金的复杂策略。</p>
<p>Microsoft、Meta、Alphabet 和 Amazon 的 2026 年资本支出计划超出了市场共识预期约 1500 亿美元。这种低估可能是由于华尔街对企业应当良好管理资本的美好期望——如果公司将资金用于数据中心而非股票回购或分红，这是一项难以实现的任务。</p>
<p>随着资本支出账单的增加，实现理想的投资回报变得具有挑战性。“仅仅因为支出金额庞大，回报就不太可能会异常出色，” Saber Capital Management 的创始人兼投资组合经理 John Huber 告诉 MarketWatch。为了在 1 万亿美元的投资中获得 “足够的” 10% 回报，超大规模企业需要每年共同产生 1000 亿美元的增量自由现金流，Huber 指出。</p>
<p>但相反的情况正在发生。为了继续资助建设，超大规模企业 “正在从巨大的现金流产生者转变为巨大的债务发行者，” Green 指出。随着数据中心开始产生折旧成本，自由现金流将变得更加紧张。Amazon 计划在今年支出 2000 亿美元，可能使其成为首个在 2026 年经历负自由现金流的超大规模企业，Jackson Square Capital 的创始人兼投资组合经理 Andrew Graham 在电子邮件中告诉 MarketWatch。</p>
<p>查看更多：这是可能会解构人工智能交易的关键细节</p>
<p>剩余履约义务，或尚未交付的未来云交易的价值，是另一个在资本支出水平上升的背景下失去光彩的指标。Microsoft、Meta、Alphabet 和 Amazon 在 2025 年第四季度都面临产能限制，这意味着对人工智能基础设施的需求增长速度超过了它们上线数据中心的速度。</p>
<p>这似乎是人工智能热潮的一个有希望的驱动因素，确实为 Google 和 Amazon 的云业务提供了动力，这两者在第四季度都实现了超出预期的增长。</p>
<p>“显然，像 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 这样的模型公司确实有实际使用……但在链条的末端，客户是谁？” Huber 说。“为了让人工智能实现生产力的飞跃，最终用户必须获得好处。” 为了维持人工智能交易，公司需要向投资者证明人工智能产品能够产生收入和现金流，Huber 补充道。</p>
<p>更多：随着投资者质疑 2000 亿美元是否能购买人工智能优势，亚马逊的股票下跌</p>
<p>不幸的是，对于那些关注人工智能支出投资回报的投资者来说，似乎没有明确的答案。当被问及 Meta 的收入和投资回报机会的细节时，首席执行官 Mark Zuckerberg 在上周的财报电话会议上回应说：“我认为现在回答这些问题有点不尽人意。”</p>
<p>Huber 将 Zuckerberg 的声明解读为一个信号，表明没有人真正知道这些巨额投资何时以及如何会带来回报——甚至连进行支出的公司的领导者也不例外。但对错失人工智能机会的恐惧仍在推动资本支出水平的上升。</p>
<p>尽管股东可能对高水平的支出感到不满，但 Green 不知道这是否足以阻止支出，尤其是当人工智能交易导致股市的巨大集中时。“七大巨头” 科技公司目前占据标准普尔 500 指数的 35%。</p>
<p>“投资者真的能做些什么呢？” Green 说。“卖掉他们的股票，承担巨额税费？退出一个他们在很长一段时间内赚取了惊人收益的市场？”</p>
<p>-Christine Ji</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>02-07-26 0830ET</p>

Meta 财报，一站看懂！

谷歌财报，一站看懂！

<p>大型科技公司的 “超级四强”——Alphabet、Amazon、Meta 和 Microsoft——预计到 2026 年将在人工智能基础设施上花费 6500 亿美元，比 2025 年增加 60%。这一巨额投资导致股价下跌，华尔街对回报的可持续性表示质疑。分析师警告，从现金流生成转向债务发行可能导致一些公司的自由现金流为负。尽管对人工智能基础设施的需求不断增长，但人们对这些投资能否产生收入和现金流仍然存在担忧，使得投资者对未来感到不确定</p>

<p>By Christine Ji</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Christine Ji</p>
</div><p>The market has spoken: It doesn't like the massive AI spending spree of the 'Big Four' hyperscalers. But the companies are barreling ahead anyway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场已经发声：它不喜欢 “四大” 超大规模企业的巨额人工智能支出狂潮。但这些公司仍在全速前进。</p>
</div><p>Can you have too much of a good thing? If the &#34;good thing&#34; in question is artificial-intelligence investment, then Big Tech and Wall Street are starting to disagree. And in the process, the underlying principles that have governed the AI trade thus far are eroding as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好事会不会变成坏事？如果所说的 “好事” 是人工智能投资，那么大型科技公司和华尔街开始出现分歧。在这个过程中，迄今为止支配人工智能交易的基本原则也在逐渐侵蚀。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) - the &#34;Big Four&#34; hyperscalers spearheading the AI infrastructure boom - are planning to spend a collective $650 billion in 2026 to outfit data centers with chips and invest in their internal architecture. That's a 60% increase from what was spent in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>引领人工智能基础设施热潮的 “四大” 超大规模企业——Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG)、Amazon.com (AMZN)、Meta Platforms (META) 和 Microsoft (MSFT)——计划在 2026 年共同支出 6500 亿美元，用于为数据中心配备芯片并投资其内部架构。这比 2025 年的支出增加了 60%。</p>
</div><p>A year ago, growing capital expenditures spurred stock rallies in these names, as Wall Street perceived the investment as a sign of innovation. Now, with four of the world's biggest companies gearing up to spend the equivalent of Argentina's GDP in 2026, the stakes of the AI trade are much higher. Shares of Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft all immediately fell after their earnings announcements in recent weeks, as their spending plans overshadowed any positive news of revenue acceleration. While Meta's stock rallied initially, it rapidly gave up all of its gains in the following days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一年前，资本支出的增长推动了这些公司的股票上涨，因为华尔街将投资视为创新的标志。如今，随着全球四大公司准备在 2026 年支出相当于阿根廷 GDP 的金额，人工智能交易的风险大大增加。Alphabet、Amazon 和 Microsoft 的股票在最近几周的财报发布后立即下跌，因为它们的支出计划掩盖了任何正面的收入加速消息。虽然 Meta 的股票最初上涨，但在接下来的几天里迅速回吐了所有涨幅。</p>
</div><p>But for the hyperscalers, AI represents both a generational opportunity and a threat to their businesses, spurring a competition to outspend the others, Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, told MarketWatch. AI promises to fundamentally rewire the mechanics of how the world searches, shops, advertises and writes code, leaving no corner of these tech companies' territory untouched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对于超大规模企业而言，人工智能既代表着一代人的机会，也对其业务构成威胁，促使它们之间展开支出竞争，Simplify Asset Management 的首席策略师兼投资组合经理 Michael Green 告诉 MarketWatch。人工智能承诺从根本上重塑世界搜索、购物、广告和编写代码的机制，几乎没有一个角落不受到这些科技公司领域的影响。</p>
</div><p>&#34;They're telling us that it's existential,&#34; Green said. &#34;A rational market would price that. Unfortunately, we're not in a rational market.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他们告诉我们这是生死攸关的，” Green 说。“一个理性的市场会对此进行定价。不幸的是，我们并不处于一个理性的市场。”</p>
</div><p>Read: Big Tech needs a staggering $1.5 trillion to fund the AI boom. This is the complex playbook it's using to get it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：大型科技公司需要惊人的 1.5 万亿美元来资助人工智能热潮。这是它们用来获得资金的复杂策略。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon's 2026 capex plans blew past consensus expectations by roughly $150 billion. That underestimation comes perhaps as a result of Wall Street's wishful expectation that corporations should be good stewards of capital - a difficult task to accomplish if companies are spending their money on data centers instead of stock buybacks or dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Microsoft、Meta、Alphabet 和 Amazon 的 2026 年资本支出计划超出了市场共识预期约 1500 亿美元。这种低估可能是由于华尔街对企业应当良好管理资本的美好期望——如果公司将资金用于数据中心而非股票回购或分红，这是一项难以实现的任务。</p>
</div><p>As the capex bill piles up, it becomes challenging to achieve a desirable return on investment. &#34;It doesn't seem likely that the returns are going to be exceptional just because of the sheer size of the money that's being spent,&#34; John Huber, founder and portfolio manager at Saber Capital Management, told MarketWatch. To earn an &#34;adequate&#34; 10% return on a $1 trillion investment, the hyperscalers need to collectively generate $100 billion in incremental free cash flow every year, Huber noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着资本支出账单的增加，实现理想的投资回报变得具有挑战性。“仅仅因为支出金额庞大，回报就不太可能会异常出色，” Saber Capital Management 的创始人兼投资组合经理 John Huber 告诉 MarketWatch。为了在 1 万亿美元的投资中获得 “足够的” 10% 回报，超大规模企业需要每年共同产生 1000 亿美元的增量自由现金流，Huber 指出。</p>
</div><p>But the opposite of that is happening. To continue funding the buildout, hyperscalers &#34;are going from huge cash-flow generators to huge debt issuers,&#34; Green pointed out. As data centers begin to incur depreciation costs, free cash flow will only become more constrained. Amazon's plans to spend $200 billion this year could make it the first hyperscaler to experience negative free cash flow in 2026, Andrew Graham, founder and portfolio manager at Jackson Square Capital, told MarketWatch over email.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但相反的情况正在发生。为了继续资助建设，超大规模企业 “正在从巨大的现金流产生者转变为巨大的债务发行者，” Green 指出。随着数据中心开始产生折旧成本，自由现金流将变得更加紧张。Amazon 计划在今年支出 2000 亿美元，可能使其成为首个在 2026 年经历负自由现金流的超大规模企业，Jackson Square Capital 的创始人兼投资组合经理 Andrew Graham 在电子邮件中告诉 MarketWatch。</p>
</div><p>See more: This is the critical detail that could unravel the AI trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看更多：这是可能会解构人工智能交易的关键细节</p>
</div><p>Remaining performance obligations, or the value of future cloud deals not yet delivered, is another metric that is losing its luster amid increasing capex levels. Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon were all capacity constrained in the fourth quarter of 2025, meaning that the demand for AI infrastructure is growing faster than they can bring data centers online.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剩余履约义务，或尚未交付的未来云交易的价值，是另一个在资本支出水平上升的背景下失去光彩的指标。Microsoft、Meta、Alphabet 和 Amazon 在 2025 年第四季度都面临产能限制，这意味着对人工智能基础设施的需求增长速度超过了它们上线数据中心的速度。</p>
</div><p>That may seem like a promising driver of the AI boom, and it's certainly turbocharging Google and Amazon's cloud businesses, which both posted above-consensus growth for the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这似乎是人工智能热潮的一个有希望的驱动因素，确实为 Google 和 Amazon 的云业务提供了动力，这两者在第四季度都实现了超出预期的增长。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Obviously, there's real usage coming from model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. ... But at the end of the chain, who are the customers?&#34; Huber said. &#34;For AI to to see the step function change in productivity, there has to be a benefit to the end user.&#34; To sustain the AI trade, companies will need to prove to investors that AI products can generate revenue and cash flow, Huber added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“显然，像 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 这样的模型公司确实有实际使用……但在链条的末端，客户是谁？” Huber 说。“为了让人工智能实现生产力的飞跃，最终用户必须获得好处。” 为了维持人工智能交易，公司需要向投资者证明人工智能产品能够产生收入和现金流，Huber 补充道。</p>
</div><p>More: Amazon's stock drops as investors question whether $200 billion can buy an AI edge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：随着投资者质疑 2000 亿美元是否能购买人工智能优势，亚马逊的股票下跌</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately for investors concerned about achieving a return on investment on AI spending, it doesn't seem like there's a clear answer. When asked about details regarding Meta's revenue and return-on-investment opportunities on last week's earnings call, CEO Mark Zuckerberg responded by saying: &#34;I think this is somewhat of an unfulfilling time to be answering some of these questions.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，对于那些关注人工智能支出投资回报的投资者来说，似乎没有明确的答案。当被问及 Meta 的收入和投资回报机会的细节时，首席执行官 Mark Zuckerberg 在上周的财报电话会议上回应说：“我认为现在回答这些问题有点不尽人意。”</p>
</div><p>Huber interprets Zuckerberg's statement as a sign that nobody really knows how and when these massive investments will pay off - not even the leaders of the companies doing the spending. But the fear of missing out on AI is continuing to propel capex levels higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Huber 将 Zuckerberg 的声明解读为一个信号，表明没有人真正知道这些巨额投资何时以及如何会带来回报——甚至连进行支出的公司的领导者也不例外。但对错失人工智能机会的恐惧仍在推动资本支出水平的上升。</p>
</div><p>And while shareholders may be displeased with the high levels of spending, Green doesn't know if that will be enough to stop the spending, especially when the AI trade has led to massive concentration within the stock market. The &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; megacap tech names currently comprise 35% of the S&amp;P 500 SPX.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管股东可能对高水平的支出感到不满，但 Green 不知道这是否足以阻止支出，尤其是当人工智能交易导致股市的巨大集中时。“七大巨头” 科技公司目前占据标准普尔 500 指数的 35%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;What are investors really going to do about it?&#34; Green said. &#34;Sell their shares, incur massive tax costs? Step out of a market that they have made an unbelievable amount of money in for an extended period of time?&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“投资者真的能做些什么呢？” Green 说。“卖掉他们的股票，承担巨额税费？退出一个他们在很长一段时间内赚取了惊人收益的市场？”</p>
</div><p>-Christine Ji</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Christine Ji</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>02-07-26 0830ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-07-26 0830ET</p>
</div>

'It's existential': How Big Tech found itself in a $650 billion spending spiral

- 四大科技公司计划在 2026 年共同支出 6500 亿美元用于 AI 基础设施。  
- 投资过高导致股价下跌，投资者对回报感到担忧。  
- 公司需要向投资者证明 AI 产品能带来收入和现金流。

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“这关乎生存”：大型科技公司如何陷入 6500 亿美元的支出漩涡