<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>上周，随着科技行业的暴跌，市场再次出现波动。股票中的防御性行业保持着短期的动能，但上周，Trinity 模型捕捉到了一个更大的变化——在一个完全不同的资产类别中。</p>
<p>这是一个在过去几年中基本处于沉睡状态的资产类别，但当事情开始崩溃时，它为交易者和投资者提供了最高程度的保护，以度过风暴。</p>
<p>上周，这个资产类别重新焕发生机，实际上，我认为这一走势必须持续下去，以便科技行业触底，最终将股票推向新的历史高点。</p>
<h3><strong>在被证明之前的避风港</strong></h3>
<p>如果这还不明显，我所说的是国债市场。尽管在预算和债务方面联邦层面存在诸多问题，但国债仍然提供了 “无风险” 投资的认知。这就是为什么当股票波动性开始上升时，债券往往会受到追捧。</p>
<p>看看这张 30 年期国债期货的周线图。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-06-143310.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-06-143310.png"/></p>
<p>我们在这里关注的是债券价格，而不是利率。这意味着如果利率下降，这张图会上升。如果利率上升，这张图会下降。</p>
<p>当事情开始变得疯狂时，债券上涨的原因是交易者从增长心态转向保护心态。理论上，债券的风险低于股票，当它们开始超越股票时，就像上周那样，无法忽视。这意味着是时候采取防御策略了。</p>
<p>我们知道特朗普政府希望降低利率。他们与美联储之间的公开争执。我想不出比股票出现一些疲软更能促使美联储尽早采取行动的更好方法。</p>
<p>还有另一件事——科技行业喜欢低利率。如果债券在这里维持其需求，利率将会下降。这实际上为科技行业再次开始超越提供了背景，如果科技开始反弹……那么，整个市场将随之而来。</p>
<p>这都是在资产类别和行业之间发生的资本周期的一部分。实际上，这是一个需要经历疲软才能恢复强劲的案例。</p>
<p>在短期内关注债券。你最不想做的就是购买 30 年期国债并持有到到期，但这并不意味着在接下来的几周内它们不会随着股票决定是否大幅下跌而上涨。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>从恐慌到狂热：卖出结束了吗？</p>
<p>标普 500 双顶确认</p>
<p>轮动失去了理智</p>

<p>市场再次出现波动，科技行业面临下滑，促使资金转向防御性行业。此前沉寂的国债市场开始受到关注，作为一种保护性资产类别，暗示债券可能会迎来反弹。这一转变表明资金从增长转向保护，债券的表现优于股票。特朗普政府推动降低利率的举措可能进一步支持科技行业的复苏。投资者应密切关注债券，因为其表现可能会影响未来几周的股市动态</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>Volatility crept back into the market last week as the rout in the tech sector accelerated. Defensive sectors within equities are maintaining their near-term momentum, but last week, the Trinity model picked up on an even bigger shift - in a completely different asset class.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，随着科技行业的暴跌，市场再次出现波动。股票中的防御性行业保持着短期的动能，但上周，Trinity 模型捕捉到了一个更大的变化——在一个完全不同的资产类别中。</p>
</div><p>It’s an asset class that has been largely asleep for a few years now, but when things start to break, it offers traders and investors the highest degree of protection to ride out the storm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个在过去几年中基本处于沉睡状态的资产类别，但当事情开始崩溃时，它为交易者和投资者提供了最高程度的保护，以度过风暴。</p>
</div><p>Last week, this asset class exploded back to life, and in fact, I’d argue that this move has to continue in order for the tech sector to bottom, and ultimately, take stocks back to new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，这个资产类别重新焕发生机，实际上，我认为这一走势必须持续下去，以便科技行业触底，最终将股票推向新的历史高点。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Safe Haven Until Proven Otherwise</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>在被证明之前的避风港</strong></h3>
</div><p>In case it wasn’t obvious, I was talking about the Treasury market. Despite all the problems at the federal level when it comes to the budget and debt, Treasuries still offer the perception of a “risk-free” investment. It’s why bonds tend to bid when volatility in stocks starts to spike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这还不明显，我所说的是国债市场。尽管在预算和债务方面联邦层面存在诸多问题，但国债仍然提供了 “无风险” 投资的认知。这就是为什么当股票波动性开始上升时，债券往往会受到追捧。</p>
</div><p>Take a look at this weekly chart of the 30-Year Treasury futures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看看这张 30 年期国债期货的周线图。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-06-143310.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-06-143310.png"/></p>
<p>We’re looking at the bond price here, not the interest rate. This means that if rates go down, this chart goes up. If rates go up, this chart goes down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们在这里关注的是债券价格，而不是利率。这意味着如果利率下降，这张图会上升。如果利率上升，这张图会下降。</p>
</div><p>The reason bonds rally when things start getting crazy is because traders move from a mindset of growth to a mindset of protection. Bonds, in theory, are less risky than stocks, and when they start outperforming stocks, like they did last week, it’s impossible to ignore. It means it’s time to play defense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当事情开始变得疯狂时，债券上涨的原因是交易者从增长心态转向保护心态。理论上，债券的风险低于股票，当它们开始超越股票时，就像上周那样，无法忽视。这意味着是时候采取防御策略了。</p>
</div><p>We know the Trump administration wants lower interest rates. They’ve been in a public feud with the Fed. I can’t think of a better way to get the Fed to act sooner than for there to be some weakness in stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们知道特朗普政府希望降低利率。他们与美联储之间的公开争执。我想不出比股票出现一些疲软更能促使美联储尽早采取行动的更好方法。</p>
</div><p>And here’s the other thing - tech loves lower interest rates. If bonds sustain their bid here, rates will go down. This actually creates a backdrop for the tech sector to start outperforming again, and if tech starts to turn… well, it’s going to bring the whole market with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有另一件事——科技行业喜欢低利率。如果债券在这里维持其需求，利率将会下降。这实际上为科技行业再次开始超越提供了背景，如果科技开始反弹……那么，整个市场将随之而来。</p>
</div><p>This is all part of capital cycles that take place within and between asset classes and sectors. It’s literally a case of weakness needing to play out before strength can return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这都是在资产类别和行业之间发生的资本周期的一部分。实际上，这是一个需要经历疲软才能恢复强劲的案例。</p>
</div><p>Watch bonds here near-term. The last thing you want to do is buy 30-Year Treasuries and hold them to maturity, but that doesn’t mean they won’t rally over the next few weeks as stocks figure out whether to break down meaningfully or not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短期内关注债券。你最不想做的就是购买 30 年期国债并持有到到期，但这并不意味着在接下来的几周内它们不会随着股票决定是否大幅下跌而上涨。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>From Panic To Manic: Is Selling Over?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从恐慌到狂热：卖出结束了吗？</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 Double Top Confirmed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 双顶确认</p>
</div><p>The Rotation Has Lost It's Damn Mind</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>轮动失去了理智</p>
</div>

真正的避险行动是否刚刚开始？