<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<p>比特币（BTC）在最近几天遭遇了严重打击，跌至 60,074 美元的低点，随后反弹至约 65,900 美元——相比去年十月的峰值 126,210 美元，跌幅超过 50%。这一崩盘抹去了数万亿的市场价值，并动摇了投资者对加密货币韧性的信心。</p>
<p>然而，像 Strategy 的迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）这样的坚定看涨者依然毫不动摇，坚称由于比特币的稀缺性及其作为全球经济困境的对冲工具，100 万美元的价格标签是 “不可避免的”。这些乐观者是否具备独特的市场洞察力，还是在无条件信仰数字黄金的幻觉中挣扎？</p>
<h3><strong>为什么加密货币处于深度冻结状态</strong></h3>
<p>加密货币市场滑入熊市的原因是宏观经济压力与行业特定脆弱性的有毒混合。由于顽固的通货膨胀、疲软的就业市场以及对潜在新主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）下美联储政策的不确定性，投资者的风险厌恶情绪愈发浓厚。</p>
<p>科技行业的压力，包括人工智能巨头的失望财报，进一步加剧了比特币的困境，因为它越来越被视为类似于成长股的投机资产。地缘政治紧张局势，如美国关税和贵金属的波动，进一步侵蚀了信心，黄金飙升而比特币却背道而驰——削弱了其 “数字黄金” 的叙述。</p>
<p>市场中的过度杠杆加剧了下跌，导致数十亿美元的连锁清算。尽管偶尔反弹，但趋势依然向下，自去年十月以来，全球加密货币市场市值已蒸发超过 2 万亿美元。</p>
<p>曾被视为荒谬的比特币测试 30,000 美元或更低的预测，如今在流动性减少和机构资金流入停滞的背景下，似乎变得合理。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://moneymorning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/02/BTC-Chart-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://moneymorning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/02/BTC-Chart-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<h3><strong>在不断增加的损失中坚定信念</strong></h3>
<p>比特币的看涨者认为，全球债务的上升——政府面临的数万亿不可持续的负担——将迫使持续的货币扩张，贬值法定货币，并将比特币的 2100 万硬性上限定位为最终的逃生阀。</p>
<p>塞勒表示，他的 Strategy 公司持有 713,502 个比特币，平均成本为 76,052 美元，最近声称：“如果世界其他地方的人知道我所知道的，并且理解并同意我的观点，比特币明天就会涨到 100 万美元。” 如果猪有翅膀，它们就能飞。</p>
<p>Strategy 的比特币持有量现在大幅亏损，最近的价值约为 470 亿美元，而成本为 542.6 亿美元，抹去了数十亿美元的未实现收益，令追随塞勒信条的信徒们感到沮丧。</p>
<p>Strategy 的股票在 2026 年迄今已下跌 30%，过去一年下跌 69%，较历史最高点下跌 76%。尽管塞勒坚持在下跌时买入——今年迄今已增加数千个比特币——但这些购买在更广泛的抛售中已不再支撑价格。</p>
<p>如果比特币跌至预测的低点如 30,000 美元，Strategy 可能面临技术性破产，资产价值将低于负债。然而，塞勒依然坚定，设想如果他的公司积累 5% 的供应量，比特币将达到 100 万美元，若达到 7% 则为 1000 万美元。</p>
<h3><strong>结论</strong></h3>
<p>在牛市中，价格似乎注定只会飞向星空；在熊市中，它们似乎被锁定在永恒的下滑中。比特币的周期历史表明底部终将到来，但在情绪处于多年低点、宏观逆风加剧的情况下，问题是还会下跌多少才能解冻？像塞勒这样的看涨者押注于比特币的不可避免复苏，但当前的痛苦正在考验即使是最坚定的信仰。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>再想想，Arm Holdings 的财报现在看起来相当不错</p>
<p>D-Wave 暴跌，量子革命被搁置</p>
<p>虽然不是 1000 亿美元，但英伟达的 200 亿美元 OpenAI 投资也不容小觑</p>

<p>比特币（BTC）最近跌至 60,074 美元，比去年十月的峰值 126,210 美元下降了超过 50%，市值蒸发了数万亿。尽管如此，像迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）这样的看涨投资者仍然保持乐观，预测未来价格将达到 100 万美元，原因在于比特币的稀缺性。加密货币市场正面临来自宏观经济压力的挑战，包括通货膨胀和地缘政治紧张局势，导致市场出现显著下滑。比特币跌至 30,000 美元的预测现在被认为是合理的，这让像塞勒这样的投资者感到担忧，因为他们的持仓目前处于亏损状态</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/5698697/pexels-photo-5698697.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/5698697/pexels-photo-5698697.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p>Bitcoin (BTC) took a brutal hit in recent days, plunging to a low of $60,074 before rebounding to around $65,900 – a staggering drop of over 50% from its peak of $126,210 last October. This meltdown erased trillions in market value and shook investor confidence in the cryptocurrency's resilience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币（BTC）在最近几天遭遇了严重打击，跌至 60,074 美元的低点，随后反弹至约 65,900 美元——相比去年十月的峰值 126,210 美元，跌幅超过 50%。这一崩盘抹去了数万亿的市场价值，并动摇了投资者对加密货币韧性的信心。</p>
</div><p>Yet, die-hard bulls like Strategy's (MSTR) Michael Saylor remain unshaken, insisting a $1 million price tag is &#34;inevitable&#34; due to Bitcoin's scarcity and role as a hedge against global economic woes. Do these optimists possess unique market foresight, or are they clinging to delusion amid unquestioned faith in digital gold?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，像 Strategy 的迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）这样的坚定看涨者依然毫不动摇，坚称由于比特币的稀缺性及其作为全球经济困境的对冲工具，100 万美元的价格标签是 “不可避免的”。这些乐观者是否具备独特的市场洞察力，还是在无条件信仰数字黄金的幻觉中挣扎？</p>
</div><h3><strong>Why Crypto Is In a Deep Freeze</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>为什么加密货币处于深度冻结状态</strong></h3>
</div><p>The cryptocurrency market's slide into bear territory stems from a toxic mix of macroeconomic pressures and sector-specific vulnerabilities. Broader risk-off sentiment has gripped investors, fueled by stubborn inflation, a softening job market, and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policies under potential new chair Kevin Warsh.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密货币市场滑入熊市的原因是宏观经济压力与行业特定脆弱性的有毒混合。由于顽固的通货膨胀、疲软的就业市场以及对潜在新主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）下美联储政策的不确定性，投资者的风险厌恶情绪愈发浓厚。</p>
</div><p>Tech sector stress, including disappointing earnings from AI giants, has spilled over, amplifying Bitcoin's woes as it's increasingly viewed as a speculative asset akin to growth stocks. Geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. tariffs and volatility in precious metals, have further eroded confidence, with gold surging while Bitcoin diverges – undermining its &#34;digital gold&#34; narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技行业的压力，包括人工智能巨头的失望财报，进一步加剧了比特币的困境，因为它越来越被视为类似于成长股的投机资产。地缘政治紧张局势，如美国关税和贵金属的波动，进一步侵蚀了信心，黄金飙升而比特币却背道而驰——削弱了其 “数字黄金” 的叙述。</p>
</div><p>Excess leverage in the market has exacerbated the downturn, triggering cascading liquidations worth billions as prices fell. Despite fleeting bounces, the trend has remained downward, with over $2 trillion wiped from the global cryptocurrency market cap since October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场中的过度杠杆加剧了下跌，导致数十亿美元的连锁清算。尽管偶尔反弹，但趋势依然向下，自去年十月以来，全球加密货币市场市值已蒸发超过 2 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Predictions of Bitcoin testing $30,000 or lower, once dismissed as absurd during the 2025 bull run when $250,000 forecasts abounded, now appear plausible amid thinning liquidity and stalled institutional inflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曾被视为荒谬的比特币测试 30,000 美元或更低的预测，如今在流动性减少和机构资金流入停滞的背景下，似乎变得合理。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://moneymorning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/02/BTC-Chart-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://moneymorning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/02/BTC-Chart-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Unwavering Faith Amid Mounting Losses</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>在不断增加的损失中坚定信念</strong></h3>
</div><p>Bitcoin bulls argue that escalating global debt – trillions in unsustainable burdens for governments – will force continued monetary expansion, debasing fiat currencies and positioning Bitcoin's 21 million hard cap as an ultimate escape valve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的看涨者认为，全球债务的上升——政府面临的数万亿不可持续的负担——将迫使持续的货币扩张，贬值法定货币，并将比特币的 2100 万硬性上限定位为最终的逃生阀。</p>
</div><p>Saylor, whose Strategy holds 713,502 Bitcoin at an average cost of $76,052, recently claimed, &#34;If people in the rest of the world knew what I know, and they understood and they agreed with me, Bitcoin would go to $10 million tomorrow.&#34; And if pigs had wings, they could fly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>塞勒表示，他的 Strategy 公司持有 713,502 个比特币，平均成本为 76,052 美元，最近声称：“如果世界其他地方的人知道我所知道的，并且理解并同意我的观点，比特币明天就会涨到 100 万美元。” 如果猪有翅膀，它们就能飞。</p>
</div><p>Strategy's BTC holdings are now significantly underwater, with the recent value around $47 billion against a $54.26 billion cost, wiping out billions in unrealized gains from the peak, devastating believers who followed Saylor's mantra.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 的比特币持有量现在大幅亏损，最近的价值约为 470 亿美元，而成本为 542.6 亿美元，抹去了数十亿美元的未实现收益，令追随塞勒信条的信徒们感到沮丧。</p>
</div><p>Strategy's stock has plummeted 30% year-to-date in 2026, 69% over the past year, and 76% from its all-time high. Though Saylor persists in buying on the dip – adding thousands of BTC so far this year – these purchases no longer buoy prices amid broader selloffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 的股票在 2026 年迄今已下跌 30%，过去一年下跌 69%，较历史最高点下跌 76%。尽管塞勒坚持在下跌时买入——今年迄今已增加数千个比特币——但这些购买在更广泛的抛售中已不再支撑价格。</p>
</div><p>If Bitcoin hits predicted lows like $30,000, Strategy could face technical bankruptcy, with asset values cratering below liabilities. Yet Saylor doubles down, envisioning Bitcoin at $1 million if his firm amasses 5% of supply, or $10 million at 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果比特币跌至预测的低点如 30,000 美元，Strategy 可能面临技术性破产，资产价值将低于负债。然而，塞勒依然坚定，设想如果他的公司积累 5% 的供应量，比特币将达到 100 万美元，若达到 7% 则为 1000 万美元。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Bottom Line</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>结论</strong></h3>
</div><p>In bull markets, prices seem destined only for the stars; in bear markets, they appear locked in an eternal descent. Bitcoin's history of cycles suggests a bottom will come, but with sentiment at multi-year lows and macro headwinds intensifying, the question is, how much further down before the thaw? Bulls like Saylor bet on Bitcoin's inevitable recovery, but its current pain is testing even the staunchest faith.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在牛市中，价格似乎注定只会飞向星空；在熊市中，它们似乎被锁定在永恒的下滑中。比特币的周期历史表明底部终将到来，但在情绪处于多年低点、宏观逆风加剧的情况下，问题是还会下跌多少才能解冻？像塞勒这样的看涨者押注于比特币的不可避免复苏，但当前的痛苦正在考验即使是最坚定的信仰。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>On Second Thought, Arm Holdings' Earnings Now Look Pretty Good</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再想想，Arm Holdings 的财报现在看起来相当不错</p>
</div><p>D-Wave Tumbles As Quantum Revolution Put On Hold</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>D-Wave 暴跌，量子革命被搁置</p>
</div><p>It Ain't $100 Billion, But Nvidia's $20 Billion OpenAI Investment Isn't Nothing Either</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然不是 1000 亿美元，但英伟达的 200 亿美元 OpenAI 投资也不容小觑</p>
</div>

Trust Me, Bro: Bitcoin Plunges To $60,000 But Believers Still See $1 Million Coming

- 比特币近期暴跌超 50%，从高点的 $126,210 降至 $60,074。  
- 市场价值蒸发超过 $2 万亿，投资者信心受挫。  
- 尽管如此，支持者仍坚信比特币的升值潜力。

Talkmarkets

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Coinbase

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Bitfarms Canada

Marathon Digital

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

American Bitcoin

Riot Platforms

Hut 8 Mining

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

相信我，兄弟：比特币跌至 60,000 美元，但信徒们仍然相信它将达到 100 万美元