<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="605" height="340" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>这一周真是疯狂。看起来空头将完全接管市场，周四晚间比特币的暴跌让人惊讶，价格跌至峰值的一半以下。然而，周五多头进行了反击，纳斯达克和标准普尔 500 指数上涨了数百点，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了四位数，并且道琼斯工业平均指数首次突破了 50,000 点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_INDU-1-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_INDU-1-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>我的看法（当然也是我的希望）是，这不过是一次熊市反弹，或者说是死猫反弹，或者是缓解反弹，或者你想给它起的其他名字。纳斯达克综合指数例如，已经回升至 50% 斐波那契回撤位（在历史高点和 11 月低点之间），回到了两天前未见的价格。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_COMPQ-2-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_COMPQ-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>逐字逐句，纳斯达克 100 指数也是如此。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_NDX-2-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_NDX-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>不过，标准普尔 500 指数的形态有所不同。它的历史高点更近，周五的反弹弥补了周四、周三，甚至周二的一些损失。然而，那条破裂的楔形图形很重要，我认为多头如果想要进一步推高，周一必须带来一个巨大的催化剂。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SPX-2-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SPX-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>半导体指数仍然处于未破裂的上升通道内。本周它接近了，但——不，没戏。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SOX-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SOX-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>道琼斯公用事业指数大约完成了 90%，这可能最终形成一个出色的头肩顶。这里显然还有更多的工作要做。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_UTIL-1-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_UTIL-1-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>最后，道琼斯运输指数与其兄弟道琼斯工业平均指数一样：冲击历史新高。出于某种原因（而且这绝对不是因为油价便宜），运输类股票几个月来表现得非常好。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_TRAN-2-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_TRAN-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>我进入这一周的仓位相对较轻——在 25 个头寸中大约 70% 已投入，没有一个大头寸。希望空头能在周初重新蓄力。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>被打败的肉类</p>
<p>万亿俱乐部</p>
<p>11 月 NQ</p>

<p>市场上周经历了显著的波动，比特币在周五之前大幅下跌，随后强劲反弹。道琼斯工业平均指数首次突破 50,000 点，而纳斯达克综合指数和纳斯达克 100 指数回升至关键的斐波那契水平。标准普尔 500 指数也恢复了本周早些时候的损失。半导体指数仍处于上升趋势，运输类股票表现良好。作者目前轻度投资，将 70% 的资本分散在 25 个头寸上，并预计下周可能会出现熊市活动</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>That was a seriously crazy week. It seemed like the bears were going to absolutely take over the market, with an amazing crescendo seen late on Thursday as Bitcoin plunged to less than half its peak price. Friday saw the revenge of the bulls, however, and the NQ and ES went up hundreds of points, the YM went up quadruple digits, and the Dow Industrials crossed above 50,000 for the first time in human history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一周真是疯狂。看起来空头将完全接管市场，周四晚间比特币的暴跌让人惊讶，价格跌至峰值的一半以下。然而，周五多头进行了反击，纳斯达克和标准普尔 500 指数上涨了数百点，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了四位数，并且道琼斯工业平均指数首次突破了 50,000 点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_INDU-1-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_INDU-1-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>My opinion (and, certainly, my hope) is that this was nothing more than a bear market rally, or a dead cat bounce, or a relief rally, or whatever other moniker you want to assign it. The Nasdaq Composite, for instance, has pushed its way back to the 50% Fib (between the lifetime high and the November low), returning to prices not seen since two days prior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的看法（当然也是我的希望）是，这不过是一次熊市反弹，或者说是死猫反弹，或者是缓解反弹，或者你想给它起的其他名字。纳斯达克综合指数例如，已经回升至 50% 斐波那契回撤位（在历史高点和 11 月低点之间），回到了两天前未见的价格。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_COMPQ-2-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_COMPQ-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>Word for word, the same applies for the Nasdaq 100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>逐字逐句，纳斯达克 100 指数也是如此。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_NDX-2-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_NDX-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 is shaped differently, though. Its own lifetime high is closer, and the rally on Friday undid the losses from Thursday, Wednesday, and even a little bit from Tuesday. That broken wedge is important, though, and I think the bulls are going to have to come in on Monday with a huge catalyst if they want to push things even higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，标准普尔 500 指数的形态有所不同。它的历史高点更近，周五的反弹弥补了周四、周三，甚至周二的一些损失。然而，那条破裂的楔形图形很重要，我认为多头如果想要进一步推高，周一必须带来一个巨大的催化剂。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SPX-2-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SPX-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>The semiconductor index remains within its unbroken ascending channel. It got tantalizing close this week, but – nope, no dice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>半导体指数仍然处于未破裂的上升通道内。本周它接近了，但——不，没戏。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SOX-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SOX-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>The Dow Utility Index is about 90% done with what might ultimately be a fantastic head-and-shoulders top. There’s certainly some more work to do here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道琼斯公用事业指数大约完成了 90%，这可能最终形成一个出色的头肩顶。这里显然还有更多的工作要做。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_UTIL-1-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_UTIL-1-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>Finally, the Dow Transports did precisely what its brother the Industrials did: blasted to lifetime highs. For whatever reason (and it’s certainly not cheap oil), transportation stocks have been doing wildly well for months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，道琼斯运输指数与其兄弟道琼斯工业平均指数一样：冲击历史新高。出于某种原因（而且这绝对不是因为油价便宜），运输类股票几个月来表现得非常好。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_TRAN-2-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_TRAN-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>I am coming into the week quite light – about 70% committed across 25 positions, with not a single large position among them. Hopefully the bears can reload with vigor early in the week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我进入这一周的仓位相对较轻——在 25 个头寸中大约 70% 已投入，没有一个大头寸。希望空头能在周初重新蓄力。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Beaten Meat</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>被打败的肉类</p>
</div><p>Trillion Dollar Club</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>万亿俱乐部</p>
</div><p>November NQ</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月 NQ</p>
</div>

More Bounce To The Ounce

- 比特币价格跌至历史高点以下，市场情绪波动剧烈。  
- 道琼斯工业平均指数首次突破 50,000 点，创历史新高。  
- 投资者对周一市场走势持谨慎态度，期待看多势头持续。

每盎司的反弹力更强