<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/main/91/454.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="635" height="400" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/main/91/454.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Bigstock</em></p>
<h3><strong>关键要点</strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>卡特彼勒在第四季度实现创纪录的收入和 512 亿美元的订单积压，得益于各个业务板块的高销量推动增长。</li>
<li>卡特彼勒的成本因关税上升而增加，调整后的营业利润率降至 15.6%。</li>
<li>卡特彼勒预计 2026 年收入增长接近目标的高端，但利润率预计接近低端。</li>
</ul>
<p>卡特彼勒公司（CAT - 免费报告）在 2025 年第四季度表现出色，所有业务板块的高销量推动其创下了历史最高收入。尽管受到关税相关压力的影响，该工业巨头在经历了五个季度的下滑后，重新实现了正的盈利增长。</p>
<p>收入和利润均超出 Zacks 共识预期，导致卡特彼勒的股价在业绩公布后上涨了 5.4%。</p>
<p>在过去一年中，卡特彼勒的股票上涨了 86%，表现优于行业的 84.1% 增长。相比之下，Zacks 工业产品板块增长了 21.6%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 15.6%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/c3/145159.jpg/query-dj0xMzcwNzk4MzY?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="617" height="339" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/c3/145159.jpg/query-dj0xMzcwNzk4MzY"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Zacks 投资研究</em></p>
<p>它还超越了同行小松（KMTUY - 免费报告）和特雷克斯公司（TEX - 免费报告），后者分别上涨了 52.5% 和 36.9%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/3f/145155.jpg/query-dj02MjY0Nzk1ODQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="606" height="339" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/3f/145155.jpg/query-dj02MjY0Nzk1ODQ"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Zacks 投资研究</em></p>
<p>在讨论投资者应如何在卡特彼勒股票中定位自己之前，让我们更仔细地看看公司的季度表现和基本面。</p>
<h3><strong>卡特彼勒第四季度亮点：创纪录的收入与订单积压，利润率下降</strong></h3>
<p>卡特彼勒在 2025 年第四季度的收入约为 191 亿美元，创下季度历史新高。收入同比增长 18%，主要得益于高销量，各个业务板块均有增长。订单积压在本季度环比增加了 113 亿美元，达到了创纪录的 512 亿美元。</p>
<p>由于制造成本上升，包括关税的影响，销售成本同比攀升 29%。因此，调整后的营业利润下降 9%，至 26.6 亿美元，而调整后的营业利润率从 2024 年第四季度的 18.3% 收窄至 15.6%。</p>
<p>每股收益为 5.16 美元，比去年同期增长 0.4%。尽管增幅有限，但这一季度标志着卡特彼勒在经历五个季度的下滑后重新实现了正的盈利增长。</p>
<p>2025 年全年，经营现金流总计 117 亿美元，低于前一年的 127 亿美元。公司通过分红和股票回购向股东返还了约 79 亿美元。卡特彼勒在 2025 年结束时现金及现金等价物约为 100 亿美元，高于 2024 年底的约 69 亿美元。</p>
<h3><strong>卡特彼勒 2026 年展望：收入将增长，利润压力依然存在</strong></h3>
<p>对于 2026 年，公司预计收入同比增长接近其长期 5%-7% 复合年增长率目标的上限。调整后的营业利润率预计接近目标区间的底部，包括持续的关税压力。</p>
<p>公司预计在收入约为 600 亿美元时，调整后的营业利润率为 15%-19%。如果收入达到 720 亿美元，营业利润率预计为 18%-22%，而收入达到 1000 亿美元则可能支持 21%-25% 的利润率。以下图表展示了这一点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/a5/145149.jpg/query-dj00NDA4Njk2Nw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="620" height="405" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/a5/145149.jpg/query-dj00NDA4Njk2Nw"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：卡特彼勒公司</em></p>
<p>预计全年自由现金流将略低于 2025 年的水平。</p>
<h3><strong>卡特彼勒的盈利预期上升</strong></h3>
<p>在过去 60 天中，卡特彼勒的 2026 年和 2027 年的盈利预期均有所上调，如下图所示。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/b9/145163.jpg/query-dj03NzEyMzgyODE?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="534" height="339" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/b9/145163.jpg/query-dj03NzEyMzgyODE"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Zacks 投资研究</em></p>
<p>2026 年的 Zacks 共识预期显示，预计同比盈利增长 18.5%，而 2027 年的预期则暗示增长 21.8%，反映出对公司盈利轨迹的信心增强。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/72/145165.jpg/query-dj0xNTMxMjgwNjEz?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="620" height="210" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/72/145165.jpg/query-dj0xNTMxMjgwNjEz"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Zacks 投资研究</em></p>
<h3><strong>卡特彼勒的同行比较</strong></h3>
<p>小松在截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日的季度报告中，调整后的每股收益为 68 美分，超出 Zacks 共识预期的 60 美分，但同比下降 12%。收入为 66.5 亿美元，比去年同期增长 2%。</p>
<p>小松在建筑、矿业和公用事业设备板块的销售增长，得益于日元贬值的积极影响和改善的销售价格，抵消了销量下降的影响。工业机械及其他业务的销售和利润增长，主要得益于汽车行业大型压机的销售增加和半导体行业高利润率的准分子激光维护。</p>
<p>与此同时，特雷克斯预计将在 2026 年 2 月 11 日发布 2025 年第四季度的财报。Zacks 共识预期特雷克斯 2025 年第四季度的每股收益为 1.12 美元，暗示同比增长 45.5%。特雷克斯的过去四个季度平均意外收益为 24.3%。特雷克斯该季度的收入共识预期为 13.3 亿美元，暗示同比增长 6.9%。</p>
<h3><strong>卡特彼勒的高估值</strong></h3>
<p>卡特彼勒最近的前瞻性 12 个月市盈率为 29.44 倍，较行业的 27.04 倍处于溢价状态。然而，该股票的价值评分为 D，表明目前估值偏高。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/45/145166.jpg/query-dj03MjAxMTY5MTM?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="620" height="232" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/45/145166.jpg/query-dj03MjAxMTY5MTM"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Zacks 投资研究</em></p>
<p>与此同时，小松和特雷克斯似乎是更便宜的选择，前瞻性 12 个月市盈率分别为 16.75 倍和 10.98 倍。</p>
<h3><strong>卡特彼勒设定长期增长目标</strong></h3>
<p>卡特彼勒的目标是到 2030 年实现 5%-7% 的年复合增长率（CAGR），预计 MP&amp;E 自由现金流将在 60 亿到 150 亿美元之间。公司计划逐步将几乎所有的 MP&amp;E 自由现金流返还给股东，并计划在 2025 年实现 7% 的股息增长后，以高个位数的速度增长股息。</p>
<p>运营目标包括将建筑行业对用户的销售从 2025 年的 1.05 倍提高到 2030 年的 1.25 倍，将资源行业的自主卡车数量从 2025 年的水平增加三倍，以及将电力生成的销售从 1.3 倍增长到超过 2.0 倍。连接资产预计将从超过 160 万增加到 200 万，而电子商务的每日销售预计将从 4% 跃升至 2030 年的 50% 以上。</p>
<p>公司的长期前景得益于美国基础设施支出的增加、与能源转型相关的矿山设备需求增长，以及自主解决方案的广泛采用，以提高生产力和安全性。</p>
<p>在电力与能源领域，可持续发展倡议和数据中心投资正在推动需求。卡特彼勒还在扩大其高利润的售后业务，服务收入目标是从 2025 年的 240 亿美元增加到 2030 年的 300 亿美元。</p>
<h3><strong>投资者应如何看待卡特彼勒股票？</strong></h3>
<p>现有股东应继续持有卡特彼勒股票，因其强劲的长期需求驱动因素、改善的盈利可见性以及不断增长的高利润服务业务。</p>
<p>向上修正的盈利预期进一步强化了公司的积极前景。然而，卡特彼勒的高估值表明，新投资者可能希望等待更具吸引力的入场时机。该公司目前的 Zacks 评级为#3（持有），这支持我们的论点。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>量子计算 2026 年展望：两只长期上涨潜力股票</p>
<p>在亚马逊股票混合的第四季度业绩和资本支出担忧后，是否应该逢低买入？</p>
<p>亚马逊与谷歌：推动下一波浪潮的顶级人工智能股票</p>

卡特彼勒

<p>卡特彼勒报告称，第四季度创纪录的收入为 191 亿美元，主要得益于更高的销量，以及 512 亿美元的订单积压。尽管由于关税导致成本上升，调整后的营业利润率降至 15.6%。该公司预计到 2026 年，收入增长将接近 5%-7% 目标的高端，但利润率可能仍将面临压力。卡特彼勒的股票在过去一年中上涨了 86%，表现优于行业同行。2026 年和 2027 年的盈利预期有所上调，反映出对未来增长的信心。与行业同行相比，该股票的估值处于溢价水平</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/main/91/454.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/main/91/454.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image: Bigstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Bigstock</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Key Takeaways</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>关键要点</strong></h3>
</div><ul>
<li>Caterpillar delivered record Q4 revenues and a $51.2 billion backlog as higher volumes drove growth across segments.</li>
<li>Caterpillar saw costs rise from tariffs, pushing adjusted operating margin down to 15.6%.</li>
<li>Caterpillar expects 2026 revenue growth near the high end of its target, but margins are guided near the low end.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>卡特彼勒在第四季度实现创纪录的收入和 512 亿美元的订单积压，得益于各个业务板块的高销量推动增长。</li>
<li>卡特彼勒的成本因关税上升而增加，调整后的营业利润率降至 15.6%。</li>
<li>卡特彼勒预计 2026 年收入增长接近目标的高端，但利润率预计接近低端。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Caterpillar Inc. (CAT - Free Report) delivered an impressive performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, posting record revenues on higher volumes across all segments. The industrial giant also returned to positive earnings growth after a five-quarter stint of declines despite tariff-related pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡特彼勒公司（CAT - 免费报告）在 2025 年第四季度表现出色，所有业务板块的高销量推动其创下了历史最高收入。尽管受到关税相关压力的影响，该工业巨头在经历了五个季度的下滑后，重新实现了正的盈利增长。</p>
</div><p>Both the top and bottom-line figures topped the respective Zacks Consensus Estimate, sending Caterpillar shares up 5.4% following the results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收入和利润均超出 Zacks 共识预期，导致卡特彼勒的股价在业绩公布后上涨了 5.4%。</p>
</div><p>Over the past year, Caterpillar stock has gained 86%, outperforming the industry’s 84.1% growth. In comparison, the Zacks Industrial Products sector has gained 21.6% while the S&amp;P 500 has risen 15.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一年中，卡特彼勒的股票上涨了 86%，表现优于行业的 84.1% 增长。相比之下，Zacks 工业产品板块增长了 21.6%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 15.6%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/c3/145159.jpg/query-dj0xMzcwNzk4MzY" alt="" original-src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/c3/145159.jpg?v=137079836"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Zacks Investment Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Zacks 投资研究</em></p>
</div><p>It has also outpaced peers Komatsu (KMTUY - Free Report) and Terex Corporation (TEX - Free Report), which have gained 52.5% and 36.9%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还超越了同行小松（KMTUY - 免费报告）和特雷克斯公司（TEX - 免费报告），后者分别上涨了 52.5% 和 36.9%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/3f/145155.jpg/query-dj02MjY0Nzk1ODQ" alt="" original-src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/3f/145155.jpg?v=626479584"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Zacks Investment Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Zacks 投资研究</em></p>
</div><p>Before addressing how investors should position themselves in Caterpillar stock, let’s take a closer look at the company’s quarterly performance and underlying fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在讨论投资者应如何在卡特彼勒股票中定位自己之前，让我们更仔细地看看公司的季度表现和基本面。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Caterpillar’s Q4 Highlights: Record Revenue &amp; Backlog, Margins Dip</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>卡特彼勒第四季度亮点：创纪录的收入与订单积压，利润率下降</strong></h3>
</div><p>Caterpillar posted revenues of around $19.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, an all-time quarterly record. The top line rose 18% year-over-year, mainly led by higher volumes, with growth reported across all segments. Backlog increased sequentially by $11.3 billion during the quarter, reaching a record $51.2 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡特彼勒在 2025 年第四季度的收入约为 191 亿美元，创下季度历史新高。收入同比增长 18%，主要得益于高销量，各个业务板块均有增长。订单积压在本季度环比增加了 113 亿美元，达到了创纪录的 512 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Cost of sales climbed 29% year-over-year due to higher manufacturing expenses, including the impact of tariffs. As a result, adjusted operating profit declined 9% to $2.66 billion, while adjusted operating margin narrowed to 15.6% from 18.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于制造成本上升，包括关税的影响，销售成本同比攀升 29%。因此，调整后的营业利润下降 9%，至 26.6 亿美元，而调整后的营业利润率从 2024 年第四季度的 18.3% 收窄至 15.6%。</p>
</div><p>Earnings per share stood at $5.16, up 0.4% from the year-ago quarter. Even though modest, the quarter marked a return to positive earnings growth for Caterpillar following five quarters of declines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每股收益为 5.16 美元，比去年同期增长 0.4%。尽管增幅有限，但这一季度标志着卡特彼勒在经历五个季度的下滑后重新实现了正的盈利增长。</p>
</div><p>For full-year 2025, operating cash flow totaled $11.7 billion, down from $12.7 billion in the prior year. The company returned about $7.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Caterpillar ended 2025 with roughly $10 billion in cash and equivalents, up from about $6.9 billion at the end of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年全年，经营现金流总计 117 亿美元，低于前一年的 127 亿美元。公司通过分红和股票回购向股东返还了约 79 亿美元。卡特彼勒在 2025 年结束时现金及现金等价物约为 100 亿美元，高于 2024 年底的约 69 亿美元。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Caterpillar 2026 Outlook: Revenues to Grow, Margin Pressure Remains</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>卡特彼勒 2026 年展望：收入将增长，利润压力依然存在</strong></h3>
</div><p>For 2026, the company expects year-over-year revenue growth near the upper end of its long-term 5%-7% CAGR target. Adjusted operating margin is expected near the bottom of the targeted range, including continued tariff pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 2026 年，公司预计收入同比增长接近其长期 5%-7% 复合年增长率目标的上限。调整后的营业利润率预计接近目标区间的底部，包括持续的关税压力。</p>
</div><p>The company projects adjusted operating margins of 15%-19% at revenue levels of around $60 billion. If revenues reach $72 billion, operating margins are expected to be 18%-22%, while revenues of $100 billion could support margins in the range of 21%-25%. This is shown in the chart below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司预计在收入约为 600 亿美元时，调整后的营业利润率为 15%-19%。如果收入达到 720 亿美元，营业利润率预计为 18%-22%，而收入达到 1000 亿美元则可能支持 21%-25% 的利润率。以下图表展示了这一点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/a5/145149.jpg/query-dj00NDA4Njk2Nw" alt="" original-src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/a5/145149.jpg?v=44086967"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Caterpillar Inc.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：卡特彼勒公司</em></p>
</div><p>Full-year free cash flow is expected to be slightly lower than 2025 levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计全年自由现金流将略低于 2025 年的水平。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Caterpillar’s Earnings Estimates Trend Higher</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>卡特彼勒的盈利预期上升</strong></h3>
</div><p>Earnings estimates for Caterpillar have moved up for both 2026 and 2027 over the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去 60 天中，卡特彼勒的 2026 年和 2027 年的盈利预期均有所上调，如下图所示。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/b9/145163.jpg/query-dj03NzEyMzgyODE" alt="" original-src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/b9/145163.jpg?v=771238281"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Zacks Investment Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Zacks 投资研究</em></p>
</div><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 points to year-over-year earnings growth of 18.5%, while the 2027 estimate implies growth of 21.8%, reflecting improving confidence in the company’s earnings trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年的 Zacks 共识预期显示，预计同比盈利增长 18.5%，而 2027 年的预期则暗示增长 21.8%，反映出对公司盈利轨迹的信心增强。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/72/145165.jpg/query-dj0xNTMxMjgwNjEz" alt="" original-src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/72/145165.jpg?v=1531280613"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Zacks Investment Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Zacks 投资研究</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>How Do Caterpillar’s Peers Compare?</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>卡特彼勒的同行比较</strong></h3>
</div><p>Komatsu reported adjusted earnings per share of 68 cents for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 60 cents, but marked a 12% decline year-over-year. Revenues were $6.65 billion, a 2% increase from the year-ago quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小松在截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日的季度报告中，调整后的每股收益为 68 美分，超出 Zacks 共识预期的 60 美分，但同比下降 12%。收入为 66.5 亿美元，比去年同期增长 2%。</p>
</div><p>Komatsu reported sales increase in the Construction, Mining &amp; Utility Equipment segment due to the positive effects of the Japanese yen’s depreciation and improved selling prices, which offset lower volumes. Industrial Machinery &amp; Others’ sales and profits increased, mainly due to increased sales of large presses for the automotive industry and higher-margin excimer laser maintenance for the semiconductor industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小松在建筑、矿业和公用事业设备板块的销售增长，得益于日元贬值的积极影响和改善的销售价格，抵消了销量下降的影响。工业机械及其他业务的销售和利润增长，主要得益于汽车行业大型压机的销售增加和半导体行业高利润率的准分子激光维护。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Terex is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11, 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Terex’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.12 per share, suggesting year-over-year growth of 45.5%. Terex has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 24.3%. The consensus estimate for Terex’s revenues for the quarter is $1.33 billion, suggesting 6.9% growth from the year-ago quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，特雷克斯预计将在 2026 年 2 月 11 日发布 2025 年第四季度的财报。Zacks 共识预期特雷克斯 2025 年第四季度的每股收益为 1.12 美元，暗示同比增长 45.5%。特雷克斯的过去四个季度平均意外收益为 24.3%。特雷克斯该季度的收入共识预期为 13.3 亿美元，暗示同比增长 6.9%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Caterpillar’s Premium Valuation</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>卡特彼勒的高估值</strong></h3>
</div><p>Caterpillar has recently been seen trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 29.44X, which is at a premium compared with the industry’s 27.04X. However, the stock's Value Score of D suggests a stretched valuation at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡特彼勒最近的前瞻性 12 个月市盈率为 29.44 倍，较行业的 27.04 倍处于溢价状态。然而，该股票的价值评分为 D，表明目前估值偏高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/45/145166.jpg/query-dj03MjAxMTY5MTM" alt="" original-src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/45/145166.jpg?v=720116913"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Zacks Investment Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Zacks 投资研究</em></p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Komatsu and Terex appear to be cheaper options, as they have been trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 16.75X and 10.98X, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，小松和特雷克斯似乎是更便宜的选择，前瞻性 12 个月市盈率分别为 16.75 倍和 10.98 倍。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Caterpillar Sets Long-Term Growth Targets</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>卡特彼勒设定长期增长目标</strong></h3>
</div><p>Caterpillar is targeting revenue growth at a CAGR of 5%-7% through 2030, with MP&amp;E free cash flow projected in the $6-$15 billion range. The company plans to return substantially all MP&amp;E free cash flow to shareholders over time and aims to grow its dividend at a high-single-digit rate, following a 7% increase in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡特彼勒的目标是到 2030 年实现 5%-7% 的年复合增长率（CAGR），预计 MP&amp;E 自由现金流将在 60 亿到 150 亿美元之间。公司计划逐步将几乎所有的 MP&amp;E 自由现金流返还给股东，并计划在 2025 年实现 7% 的股息增长后，以高个位数的速度增长股息。</p>
</div><p>Operational targets include increasing Construction Industries’ sales to users from 1.05x in 2025 to 1.25x by 2030, triple autonomous trucks in Resource Industries from 2025 levels, and growing Power Generation sales from 1.3x to more than 2.0x. Connected assets are expected to rise from more than 1.6 million to 2 million, while e-commerce sales per business day are projected to jump from 4% to more than 50% by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>运营目标包括将建筑行业对用户的销售从 2025 年的 1.05 倍提高到 2030 年的 1.25 倍，将资源行业的自主卡车数量从 2025 年的水平增加三倍，以及将电力生成的销售从 1.3 倍增长到超过 2.0 倍。连接资产预计将从超过 160 万增加到 200 万，而电子商务的每日销售预计将从 4% 跃升至 2030 年的 50% 以上。</p>
</div><p>The company’s long-term outlook is supported by rising U.S. infrastructure spending, growing demand for mining equipment tied to the energy transition, and increased adoption of autonomous solutions to improve productivity and safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的长期前景得益于美国基础设施支出的增加、与能源转型相关的矿山设备需求增长，以及自主解决方案的广泛采用，以提高生产力和安全性。</p>
</div><p>In Power &amp; Energy, sustainability initiatives and data-center investments are driving demand. Caterpillar is also expanding its high-margin aftermarket business, with service revenues targeted to increase from $24 billion in 2025 to $30 billion by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在电力与能源领域，可持续发展倡议和数据中心投资正在推动需求。卡特彼勒还在扩大其高利润的售后业务，服务收入目标是从 2025 年的 240 亿美元增加到 2030 年的 300 亿美元。</p>
</div><h3><strong>How Should Investors Approach Caterpillar Stock?</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>投资者应如何看待卡特彼勒股票？</strong></h3>
</div><p>Existing shareholders should continue to hold Caterpillar stock, supported by strong long-term demand drivers, improving earnings visibility, and a growing, high-margin services business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现有股东应继续持有卡特彼勒股票，因其强劲的长期需求驱动因素、改善的盈利可见性以及不断增长的高利润服务业务。</p>
</div><p>Upward earnings estimate revisions further reinforce the company’s positive outlook. However, Caterpillar’s premium valuation suggests that new investors may want to wait for a more attractive entry point. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, which supports our thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>向上修正的盈利预期进一步强化了公司的积极前景。然而，卡特彼勒的高估值表明，新投资者可能希望等待更具吸引力的入场时机。该公司目前的 Zacks 评级为#3（持有），这支持我们的论点。</p>
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在卡特彼勒发布第四季度财报后，你应该买入、卖出还是持有该股票？