<p>我们已经接近 1000 亿欧元（870 亿英镑）的标志，而总额仍在上升。</p>
<p>斯特兰蒂斯——控制菲亚特、标致和克莱斯勒的公司——在周五宣布将其电动车部门减记 220 亿欧元。这笔账单只是美国和欧洲主要汽车制造商在电动车浪潮中遭受的一系列巨大损失中的最新一笔。</p>
<p>实际上，电动车仅占整体市场的一小部分，而在现有市场中，中国制造商将占据大部分销售。</p>
<p>对电动车的赌注已经变成了一场灾难，行业恢复需要很多年。</p>
<p>距离禁止销售所有新款汽油和柴油车的原定目标日期不到四年，行业巨头本应在此时享受电池动力汽车销售的繁荣。</p>
<p>流线型的新车型应该已经从生产线下线，新电池工厂将创造数十万个就业机会，而投入的数十亿资金将成为重振欧洲和美国工业的催化剂。</p>
<p>“我们需要 70,000 名熟练工人来制造电池，” 前首相鲍里斯·约翰逊在 2021 年宣布。他承诺对英国电动车生产提供无限的政府支持。</p>
<p>在法国，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙正在投入数十亿资金，使他的国家在电池和电动车生产方面成为一股力量。</p>
<p>那么，我们开始看到所有这些投资的结果了吗？销售在激增，利润在上升，新工作正在创造？其实并非如此。</p>
<p>斯特兰蒂斯在周五的 220 亿欧元减记，加上计划出售其在一家加拿大电池合资企业的股份，导致当天股价下跌 27%。过去一年中，股价已减半，斯特兰蒂斯的市值降至仅 170 亿欧元。</p>
<p>不幸的是，它远非孤例。通用汽车上个月表示，将对收益计提 70 亿美元（50 亿英镑）的费用，几乎全部来自其电动车部门。</p>
<p>在圣诞节前，福特表示将对其电动车业务计提 195 亿美元的损失，包括取消的车辆和电池合资企业。大众汽车在巨额亏损的情况下开始缩减电动车的生产。</p>
<p>保时捷曾表示，到本十年末电动车将占利润的 80%，但在去年底宣布将目标下调后，计提了 31 亿欧元的费用。</p>
<p>即使是特斯拉，这家对电动车了解超过任何竞争对手的公司，也开始面临困难。它已取消标志性的 Model S，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克正在拼命试图说服大家，机器人才是未来。</p>
<p>斯特兰蒂斯首席执行官安东尼奥·菲洛萨承认，公司高估了 “能源转型的速度，这使我们与许多汽车买家的现实需求、能力和愿望产生了距离”。</p>
<p>这是一个痛苦的承认，但至少是诚实的。有一点是明确的：我们不再听到关于电动车转型将导致工业复兴的消息了。</p>
<p>有两个主要问题。首先，电动车可能只是一个小众产品。</p>
<p>司机们担心续航里程，考虑到制造过程中的所有原材料的影响，电动车是否真的对环境更好尚不明确，充电基础设施尚未到位，而我们产生的电力价格也不足以使电动车具备成本效益。</p>
<p>其次，在有市场的地方，以比亚迪为首的新一代中国品牌正在夺走市场份额。</p>
<p>传统汽车巨头认为转型只是将内燃机替换为大电池，但事实证明，电动车是一种附有轮子的电子设备。它与手机市场有更多的共同点，而不是与那些熟悉的汽油车行业。</p>
<p>从零开始创建一家新的电动车公司要比改造一家传统巨头容易得多。</p>
<p>结果是，所有汽车公司现在都陷入了深深的麻烦。</p>
<p>更糟糕的是，在狂热的能源部长埃德·米利班德的领导下，英国盲目推进 2030 年逐步淘汰新汽油车销售的目标，即使世界其他地方都意识到这完全是疯狂的。</p>
<p>事实上，就在本周，韩国现代汽车的首席执行官警告称，坚守这一目标将威胁到英国汽车市场的 “严重干扰”。</p>
<p>坦率的说，汽车巨头对电动车的巨大赌注已经彻底失利。</p>
<p>这让他们损失了数百亿的资本，浪费了五年的时间和精力，这些本可以更有效地用于其他地方——或许最糟糕的是，它让那些从未听说过的中国制造商建立了新品牌。现在要摆脱他们将非常困难。</p>
<p>这是近期工业历史上最严重的自我造成的灾难之一。</p>
<p>要开始恢复过程，制造商必须说服政府停止施加那些只会扭曲市场的荒谬自上而下的目标。他们必须无情地剥离那些不盈利的部门。他们必须摆脱补贴，最重要的是，他们需要重新与客户建立联系，制造人们能够负担得起并想要再次驾驶的汽车。</p>
<p>在过去五年的疯狂之后，这是唯一的回归之路——而且这将是一条漫长、艰难且昂贵的道路。</p>

STLA

福特汽车

通用汽车

纳斯达克全球汽车指数 - First Trust

<p>汽车行业对电动车（EV）的投资导致了巨额财务损失，Stellantis 在其电动车部门减记了 220 亿欧元。通用汽车和福特等主要制造商也对其电动车部门报告了可观的费用。尽管最初对电动车销售和就业创造的乐观预期，但市场并未如预期那样发展，中国品牌占据了主导地位。关于电动车实用性和基础设施的担忧依然存在，这导致对行业未来及 2030 年逐步淘汰汽油车目标的重新评估</p>

<p>We are already getting close to the €100bn (£87bn) mark and the total is still rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们已经接近 1000 亿欧元（870 亿英镑）的标志，而总额仍在上升。</p>
</div><p>Stellantis – the company that controls Fiat, Peugeot and Chrysler – announced on Friday that it was writing down €22bn on its electric vehicle unit. The bill is only the latest in a series of enormous losses suffered by the major American and European auto manufacturers who jumped on the EV bandwagon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯特兰蒂斯——控制菲亚特、标致和克莱斯勒的公司——在周五宣布将其电动车部门减记 220 亿欧元。这笔账单只是美国和欧洲主要汽车制造商在电动车浪潮中遭受的一系列巨大损失中的最新一笔。</p>
</div><p>In reality, it turns out that electric cars are only a small part of the overall market and that, insofar as it exists, Chinese manufacturers will capture most of the sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上，电动车仅占整体市场的一小部分，而在现有市场中，中国制造商将占据大部分销售。</p>
</div><p>The gamble on electric cars has turned into a catastrophe and it will be many years before the industry recovers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对电动车的赌注已经变成了一场灾难，行业恢复需要很多年。</p>
</div><p>With less than four years remaining until the original target date for banning the sale of all new petrol and diesel cars, the giants of the industry were meant to be riding a boom in sales of battery-powered vehicles by now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>距离禁止销售所有新款汽油和柴油车的原定目标日期不到四年，行业巨头本应在此时享受电池动力汽车销售的繁荣。</p>
</div><p>Sleek new models would be rolling off the production lines, new battery plants would be creating hundreds of thousands of jobs, while the billions poured into investment would be the catalyst for reindustrialising both Europe and the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流线型的新车型应该已经从生产线下线，新电池工厂将创造数十万个就业机会，而投入的数十亿资金将成为重振欧洲和美国工业的催化剂。</p>
</div><p>“We’re going to need 70,000 skilled people just to make batteries across this country,” announced Boris Johnson, the former prime minister, back in 2021. He promised unlimited government support for British EV production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们需要 70,000 名熟练工人来制造电池，” 前首相鲍里斯·约翰逊在 2021 年宣布。他承诺对英国电动车生产提供无限的政府支持。</p>
</div><p>Over in France, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, was pouring billions into making his country a force in battery and EV production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在法国，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙正在投入数十亿资金，使他的国家在电池和电动车生产方面成为一股力量。</p>
</div><p>So we are starting to see the results of all that investment, right? Sales are booming, profits are rising and new jobs are being created? Well, not exactly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，我们开始看到所有这些投资的结果了吗？销售在激增，利润在上升，新工作正在创造？其实并非如此。</p>
</div><p>Stellantis’s €22bn write-down on Friday, combined with plans to offload a stake in a Canadian battery joint venture, sent shares down 27pc on the day. They have now more than halved over the last year, taking Stellantis’s value down to just €17bn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯特兰蒂斯在周五的 220 亿欧元减记，加上计划出售其在一家加拿大电池合资企业的股份，导致当天股价下跌 27%。过去一年中，股价已减半，斯特兰蒂斯的市值降至仅 170 亿欧元。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, it is far from alone. General Motors said last month that it was taking a $7bn (£5bn) charge against earnings, almost all of which was accounted for by its EV unit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，它远非孤例。通用汽车上个月表示，将对收益计提 70 亿美元（50 亿英镑）的费用，几乎全部来自其电动车部门。</p>
</div><p>Just before Christmas, Ford said it was taking a $19.5bn hit on its EV business, including cancelled vehicles and a battery joint venture. Volkswagen has started scaling back production of EVs amid heavy losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在圣诞节前，福特表示将对其电动车业务计提 195 亿美元的损失，包括取消的车辆和电池合资企业。大众汽车在巨额亏损的情况下开始缩减电动车的生产。</p>
</div><p>Porsche, which had said that electric vehicles would account for 80pc of profits by the end of this decade, instead announced a €3.1bn charge late last year after scaling back those targets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保时捷曾表示，到本十年末电动车将占利润的 80%，但在去年底宣布将目标下调后，计提了 31 亿欧元的费用。</p>
</div><p>Even Tesla, a company that knows more about electric cars than any of its rivals, is starting to struggle. It has scrapped the iconic Model S and Elon Musk, its chief executive, is desperately trying to convince everyone that robots are the future instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是特斯拉，这家对电动车了解超过任何竞争对手的公司，也开始面临困难。它已取消标志性的 Model S，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克正在拼命试图说服大家，机器人才是未来。</p>
</div><p>Antonio Filosa, the chief executive of Stellantis, conceded that the company had overestimated “the pace of the energy transition that distanced us from many car buyers’ real-world needs, means and desires”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯特兰蒂斯首席执行官安东尼奥·菲洛萨承认，公司高估了 “能源转型的速度，这使我们与许多汽车买家的现实需求、能力和愿望产生了距离”。</p>
</div><p>It is a painful admission but one that is at least honest. One point is surely clear. We are not hearing very much about how the transition to EVs would lead to an industrial renaissance any more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个痛苦的承认，但至少是诚实的。有一点是明确的：我们不再听到关于电动车转型将导致工业复兴的消息了。</p>
</div><p>There have been two major problems. First, EVs may only be a niche product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有两个主要问题。首先，电动车可能只是一个小众产品。</p>
</div><p>Drivers are worried about the range, it is far from clear they are better for the environment once the impact of all the raw materials in the manufacturing process is taken into account, the charging infrastructure is not in place and we don’t generate the electricity to power them all at a price cheap enough to make EVs cost-effective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>司机们担心续航里程，考虑到制造过程中的所有原材料的影响，电动车是否真的对环境更好尚不明确，充电基础设施尚未到位，而我们产生的电力价格也不足以使电动车具备成本效益。</p>
</div><p>Next, where there is a market, the new breed of Chinese brands led by BYD is walking away with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，在有市场的地方，以比亚迪为首的新一代中国品牌正在夺走市场份额。</p>
</div><p>The traditional auto giants thought the transition was just a matter of replacing an internal combustion engine with a big battery, but it turned out that an EV was a piece of electronics with wheels attached. It has much more in common with the mobile phone market than anything the petrolheads running the industry were familiar with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传统汽车巨头认为转型只是将内燃机替换为大电池，但事实证明，电动车是一种附有轮子的电子设备。它与手机市场有更多的共同点，而不是与那些熟悉的汽油车行业。</p>
</div><p>It is far easier to create a new EV company from scratch than to convert one of the traditional giants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从零开始创建一家新的电动车公司要比改造一家传统巨头容易得多。</p>
</div><p>The result? All the auto companies are now in deep trouble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果是，所有汽车公司现在都陷入了深深的麻烦。</p>
</div><p>Even worse, under the direction of Ed Miliband, the fanatical Energy Secretary, Britain is pressing on blindly with the 2030 target for phasing out sales of new petrol cars even as the rest of the world recognises that it is complete madness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更糟糕的是，在狂热的能源部长埃德·米利班德的领导下，英国盲目推进 2030 年逐步淘汰新汽油车销售的目标，即使世界其他地方都意识到这完全是疯狂的。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, only this week, the boss of South Korea’s Hyundai warned that sticking to the target threatened “severe disruption” in the UK auto market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，就在本周，韩国现代汽车的首席执行官警告称，坚守这一目标将威胁到英国汽车市场的 “严重干扰”。</p>
</div><p>The blunt truth is this: the massive bet that the auto giants took on EVs has backfired spectacularly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>坦率的说，汽车巨头对电动车的巨大赌注已经彻底失利。</p>
</div><p>It has cost them tens of billions in capital, it has wasted five years of time and energy that could have been more profitably deployed elsewhere and – perhaps worst of all – it has allowed Chinese manufacturers that no one had ever heard of to establish new brands. It will very difficult to get rid of them now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让他们损失了数百亿的资本，浪费了五年的时间和精力，这些本可以更有效地用于其他地方——或许最糟糕的是，它让那些从未听说过的中国制造商建立了新品牌。现在要摆脱他们将非常困难。</p>
</div><p>It is one of the worst self-inflicted calamities of recent industrial history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是近期工业历史上最严重的自我造成的灾难之一。</p>
</div><p>To start the recovery process, the manufacturers will have to persuade governments to stop imposing ridiculous top-down targets that only distort the market. They will have to ruthlessly get rid of units that don’t make any money. They will have to wean themselves off subsidies and, most crucially, they will need to reconnect with their customers, making cars that people can afford and want to drive again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要开始恢复过程，制造商必须说服政府停止施加那些只会扭曲市场的荒谬自上而下的目标。他们必须无情地剥离那些不盈利的部门。他们必须摆脱补贴，最重要的是，他们需要重新与客户建立联系，制造人们能够负担得起并想要再次驾驶的汽车。</p>
</div><p>After the madness of the last five years, it is the only way back – and it will be a long, hard and expensive road.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年的疯狂之后，这是唯一的回归之路——而且这将是一条漫长、艰难且昂贵的道路。</p>
</div>

The auto industry’s gamble on electric cars has turned into a catastrophe

- Stellantis 宣布对电动车部门减记 220 亿欧元，反映行业巨头亏损加剧。  
- 电动车销售仅占市场小部分，中国品牌抢占大部分份额。  
- 汽车厂商需说服政府放弃不合理目标，以重建与消费者的联系。

汽车行业押注电动汽车的举措已经演变成了一场灾难