<p>[东京] 日本首相高市早苗的政党预计将在周日（2 月 8 日）举行的选举中在日本下议院获得大多数，公共广播公司 NHK 根据出口民调预测。</p>
<p>高市的自由民主党（LDP）预计将赢得 465 个席位中的 274 到 328 个，远高于获得多数所需的 233 个席位，NHK 表示。</p>
<p>与其联盟伙伴日本创新党（Ishin）一起，她可能控制多达 366 个席位。</p>
<p>64 岁的日本首位女性首相高市早苗召集了这次罕见的冬季快闪选举，以利用自去年底她被提升为执政 LDP 领导人以来其个人支持率的高涨。</p>
<h2>高市在罕见冬季选举中的赌注获得回报</h2>
<p>选民们被她直言不讳、勤奋工作的形象所吸引，但她的民族主义倾向和对安全的重视使与强邻中国的关系紧张，而她的减税承诺则让金融市场感到不安。</p>
<p>居民们在大雪中艰难前行，投票时部分地区创下了降雪记录，导致交通拥堵，并要求一些投票站提前关闭。</p>
<p>这是战后第三次在 2 月份举行的选举，通常选举是在气候较温和的月份进行。</p>
<p>在位于新潟县山区的鱼沼市的一处投票站外，54 岁的教师长谷川和重冒着零下的气温和深雪为高市的 LDP 投票。</p>
<p>“感觉她在创造一种方向感——就像整个国家团结在一起向前迈进。这让我深有共鸣，” 他说。</p>
<p>但高市承诺暂停对食品征收 8% 的销售税以帮助家庭应对价格上涨，这让投资者感到不安，他们担心这个在发达经济体中债务负担最重的国家将如何为这一计划提供资金。</p>
<p>“如果高市大获全胜，她将有更多的政治空间来兑现关键承诺，包括消费税减免，” FGS Global 的董事总经理稻田诚司表示。“市场可能会在接下来的几天内作出反应，日元可能会面临新的压力。”</p>
<p>74 岁的新潟居民森美子在雪中带着她的狗走路时表示，她担心高市的减税可能会给未来几代人带来更大的负担。</p>
<p>但年轻选民中对高市的支持率最高，最近的一项民调显示，超过 90% 的 30 岁以下选民支持她。</p>
<p>首相引发了一场名为 “sanakatsu” 的意外青年潮流，粗略翻译为 “高市狂热”，她使用的产品，如她的手袋和在国会中用来记笔记的粉色笔，需求量很大。</p>
<p>周四，高市获得了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的 “全面支持”。</p>
<p>中国也将密切关注选举结果。</p>
<p>在上任几周后，高市公开阐述了东京可能如何应对中国对台湾的攻击，点燃了与中国十多年来最大的争端。</p>
<p>强有力的授权可能加速她加强日本防御的计划，而北京将其视为试图复兴其军事主义的过去。</p>
<p>“我投票给一个显然有意保护国家的政党，” 退休军人五十岐正信在鱼沼为 LDP 投票后表示。REUTERS</p>

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招商中证全指证券公司指数A

华夏野村日经225ETF

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科综指增

<p>日本首相高市早苗的自由民主党（LDP）预计将在即将到来的选举中赢得显著多数，根据 NHK 的出口民调，预计将获得 465 个席位中的 274 到 328 个。高市的领导获得了强劲的支持率，但她的民族主义政策和提议的减税措施引发了投资者的担忧。这场在异常冬季条件下举行的选举，投票率较高，尤其是年轻选民对她的支持尤为明显。强有力的胜利可能增强她的政治影响力，以实施包括税制改革在内的关键承诺</p>

<p>[TOKYO] Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s party is set to secure a big majority in Japan’s lower house in an election on Sunday (Feb 8), public broadcaster NHK forecast, based on exit polls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[东京] 日本首相高市早苗的政党预计将在周日（2 月 8 日）举行的选举中在日本下议院获得大多数，公共广播公司 NHK 根据出口民调预测。</p>
</div><p>Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is set to win 274 to 328 of the 465 seats in the chamber, well above the 233 needed for a majority, said NHK.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高市的自由民主党（LDP）预计将赢得 465 个席位中的 274 到 328 个，远高于获得多数所需的 233 个席位，NHK 表示。</p>
</div><p>Together with coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, she could control up to 366 of the seats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与其联盟伙伴日本创新党（Ishin）一起，她可能控制多达 366 个席位。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s first female prime minister, 64, called the rare winter snap election to capitalise on her buoyant personal approval ratings since she was elevated to lead the ruling LDP late last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>64 岁的日本首位女性首相高市早苗召集了这次罕见的冬季快闪选举，以利用自去年底她被提升为执政 LDP 领导人以来其个人支持率的高涨。</p>
</div><h2>Takaichi’s bet on rare winter election pays off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高市在罕见冬季选举中的赌注获得回报</h2>
</div><p>Voters have been drawn to her straight-talking, hardworking image, but her nationalistic leanings and emphasis on security have strained ties with powerful neighbour China, while her promises of tax cuts have rattled financial markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>选民们被她直言不讳、勤奋工作的形象所吸引，但她的民族主义倾向和对安全的重视使与强邻中国的关系紧张，而她的减税承诺则让金融市场感到不安。</p>
</div><p>Residents trudged through snow to cast their ballots with record snowfall in parts of the country snarling traffic and requiring some polling stations to close early.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>居民们在大雪中艰难前行，投票时部分地区创下了降雪记录，导致交通拥堵，并要求一些投票站提前关闭。</p>
</div><p>It is only the third post-war election held in February, with elections typically called during milder months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是战后第三次在 2 月份举行的选举，通常选举是在气候较温和的月份进行。</p>
</div><p>Outside a polling station in the town of Uonuma in the mountainous Niigata prefecture, teacher Kazushige Cho, 54, braved below-freezing temperatures and deep snow to cast his vote for Takaichi’s LDP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在位于新潟县山区的鱼沼市的一处投票站外，54 岁的教师长谷川和重冒着零下的气温和深雪为高市的 LDP 投票。</p>
</div><p>“It feels like she’s creating a sense of direction – like the whole country pulling together and moving forward. That really resonates with me,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“感觉她在创造一种方向感——就像整个国家团结在一起向前迈进。这让我深有共鸣，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>But Takaichi’s election promise to suspend the 8 per cent sales tax on food to help households cope with rising prices has spooked investors concerned about how the nation with the heaviest debt burden among advanced economies will fund the plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但高市承诺暂停对食品征收 8% 的销售税以帮助家庭应对价格上涨，这让投资者感到不安，他们担心这个在发达经济体中债务负担最重的国家将如何为这一计划提供资金。</p>
</div><p>“If Takaichi wins big, she will have more political room to follow through on key commitments, including on consumption-tax cuts,” said Seiji Inada, managing director at FGS Global, a consultancy. “Markets could react in the following days, and the yen could come under renewed pressure.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果高市大获全胜，她将有更多的政治空间来兑现关键承诺，包括消费税减免，” FGS Global 的董事总经理稻田诚司表示。“市场可能会在接下来的几天内作出反应，日元可能会面临新的压力。”</p>
</div><p>Niigata resident Mineko Mori, 74, padding through the snow with her dog, said she worried that Takaichi’s tax cuts could saddle future generations with an even bigger burden.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>74 岁的新潟居民森美子在雪中带着她的狗走路时表示，她担心高市的减税可能会给未来几代人带来更大的负担。</p>
</div><p>But younger voters are among the most supportive of Takaichi, with one recent poll finding more than 90 per cent of those under 30 favoured her.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但年轻选民中对高市的支持率最高，最近的一项民调显示，超过 90% 的 30 岁以下选民支持她。</p>
</div><p>The prime minister has sparked an unlikely youth-led craze called “sanakatsu”, roughly translated as “Sanae-mania”, with the products she uses, such as her handbag and the pink pen she scribbles notes with in parliament, in high demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首相引发了一场名为 “sanakatsu” 的意外青年潮流，粗略翻译为 “高市狂热”，她使用的产品，如她的手袋和在国会中用来记笔记的粉色笔，需求量很大。</p>
</div><p>On Thursday, Takaichi received the “total endorsement” of US President Donald Trump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，高市获得了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的 “全面支持”。</p>
</div><p>China will also be keeping a close eye on the results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国也将密切关注选举结果。</p>
</div><p>Weeks after taking office, Takaichi touched off the biggest dispute with China in over a decade by publicly outlining how Tokyo might respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上任几周后，高市公开阐述了东京可能如何应对中国对台湾的攻击，点燃了与中国十多年来最大的争端。</p>
</div><p>A strong mandate could accelerate her plans to bolster Japan’s defence, which Beijing has cast as an attempt to revive its militaristic past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>强有力的授权可能加速她加强日本防御的计划，而北京将其视为试图复兴其军事主义的过去。</p>
</div><p>“I voted for a party that clearly has the will to protect the country,” Masanobu Igarashi, a retired soldier, said after casting his ballot for the LDP in Uonuma. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我投票给一个显然有意保护国家的政党，” 退休军人五十岐正信在鱼沼为 LDP 投票后表示。REUTERS</p>
</div>

出口民调显示，日本的高市有望在大选中大获全胜