<p>道琼斯工业平均指数在周五突破 50,000 点，股市反弹</p><p>软件股的暴跌引发了对人工智能影响的质疑</p><p>周三将发布就业报告，周五将发布消费者物价指数，数据周忙碌</p><p>作者：刘易斯·克劳斯科普夫</p><p>纽约，2 月 8 日（路透社）- 由于人工智能驱动的重磅科技行业洗牌，预计在接下来的一周内，股票投资者将保持紧张，而一系列数据可能将焦点转向经济健康状况。本周，软件股的持续下跌吸引了华尔街的注意，投资者担心人工智能将如何颠覆整个行业的商业模式。科技行业的进一步疲软，作为美国主要股指的重要组成部分，拖累了市场大部分时间。</p><p>周五，股市强劲反弹，道琼斯工业平均指数（.DJI）首次突破 50,000 点，主要受半导体公司股票激增的推动。在表面之下，投资者对从科技股转向在过去三年多的牛市中表现不佳的市场其他部分感到鼓舞。尽管科技股表现不佳，但能源、消费品和工业股在今年迄今表现出色。</p><p>“轮动是今年的主导主题，并且随着我们看到这些传统经济部门和股票真正受到关注，这一主题仍在继续，” 爱德华·琼斯的高级全球投资策略师安杰洛·库尔卡法斯表示。“与此同时，科技股的预期门槛似乎非常高，无论公司报告什么，投资者的自然倾向似乎都是获利了结。”</p><p>尽管科技行业（.SPLRCT）在周五反弹，但该组自去年 10 月底达到年度峰值以来已下滑 9%。</p><p>在此期间，标准普尔 500 指数的其他 11 个行业大多数都实现了增长，其中四个行业的涨幅超过了两位数百分比。</p><p>但基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）在此期间仅勉强实现了微幅上涨。由于科技行业仍占标准普尔 500 指数约三分之一的权重，投资者担心如果科技股继续疲软，指数将面临困难。</p><p>“市场可以在没有明显的指数级压力的情况下，吸收长期的轮动和大型行业赢家的出现，” 德意志银行宏观和主题研究负责人吉姆·里德在一份报告中表示。“然而，主导行业的抛售越长越深，广泛指数承受拖累的难度就越大。”</p><h3 id="08g62m9bn">软件行业的未来何在？</h3><p>压力集中在软件行业，标准普尔 500 软件和服务指数（.SPLRCIS）在短短一周多的时间内暴跌 15%。对人工智能颠覆的担忧因软件巨头微软（MSFT.O）发布的令人失望的财报而加剧。</p><p>软件行业的后果凸显了投资者越来越试图确定人工智能的赢家和输家。</p><p>“以前是 ‘人工智能提升了所有船只’，” Manulife John Hancock Investments 的共同首席投资策略师马修·米斯金表示。“现在，人们担心这一技术领域的巨大加速可能导致其他企业无法实现之前的增长率。”</p><p>即将到来的一周将有来自 AppLovin（APP.O）和 Datadog（DDOG.O）的软件行业报告。随着第四季度财报季的结束，知名公司如可口可乐（KO.N）、思科系统（CSCO.O）和麦当劳（MCD.N）也将发布业绩。</p><p>就业和通胀数据即将发布，月度就业和消费者价格报告将在因最近结束的三天政府停摆而略微推迟后发布。根据路透社的调查，预计周三发布的 1 月份非农就业报告将显示增加 70,000 个就业岗位。投资者正在评估劳动力市场的疲软是否已经减缓。尽管美联储在上个月维持利率不变时提到就业市场的稳定，但周四的一项调查显示，美国雇主宣布的裁员在 1 月份激增。</p><p>与此同时，美联储认为通胀仍然 “略高”，1 月份的消费者价格指数将在周五发布，提供最新的趋势洞察。由于美联储描述了通胀和就业风险的降低，市场预计中央银行将在 6 月会议之前暂停进一步的降息。到那时，唐纳德·特朗普总统新任命的美联储主席凯文·沃什可能会掌权。</p><p>在中央银行去年年底降息后，美联储基金期货继续预计到 12 月将再降约两个四分之一百分点的利率，这一预期在沃什上个月末被提名后普遍保持不变。</p><p>“利率预期在过去几周内一直相当稳定，” 库尔卡法斯表示。“我们将看看劳动力市场数据的任何疲软或通胀的任何意外降温是否会加速市场认为下一次降息可能会到来的时间表。”</p>

<p>在科技行业中，人工智能驱动的洗牌引发了投资者的担忧，软件股票经历了显著的下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数最近突破了 50,000 点，受到半导体股票的提振，而能源和消费品等其他行业表现良好。即将发布的经济数据，包括就业和通胀报告，可能会影响市场情绪。投资者对科技行业的未来持谨慎态度，尤其是在微软等主要公司发布令人失望的财报之后。美联储在利率方面的立场保持稳定，预计今年晚些时候可能会降息</p>

<p>(Repeats story first published on Friday)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（重复周五首次发布的故事）</p>
</div><p>Dow industrials hit 50,000 on Friday as stocks rebound</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道琼斯工业平均指数在周五突破 50,000 点，股市反弹</p>
</div><p>Software swoon draws questions about AI’s impact</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>软件股的暴跌引发了对人工智能影响的质疑</p>
</div><p>Jobs report due on Wednesday, CPI on Friday in busy data week</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三将发布就业报告，周五将发布消费者物价指数，数据周忙碌</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：刘易斯·克劳斯科普夫</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - An artificial intelligence-driven shakeout in the heavyweight technology sector is set to keep stock investors on edge in the coming week while a barrage of data could shift focus to the health of the economy. A deepening rout among software stocks commanded Wall Street’s attention this week, as investors worried about the extent to which AI would upend business models throughout the industry. Further weakness in the tech sector, which holds massive weight in the major U.S. equity indexes, dragged on the market for much of the week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，2 月 6 日（路透社）- 由于人工智能驱动的重磅科技行业洗牌，预计在接下来的一周内，股票投资者将保持紧张，而一系列数据可能将焦点转向经济健康状况。本周，软件股的持续下跌吸引了华尔街的注意，投资者担心人工智能将如何颠覆整个行业的商业模式。科技行业的进一步疲软，作为美国主要股指的重要组成部分，拖累了市场大部分时间。</p>
</div><p>On Friday, stocks staged a strong rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) crossing 50,000 for the first time, led by a surge in shares of semiconductor companies. Below the surface, investors have been encouraged about a rotation from tech to other parts of the market that underperformed for most of the bull market that began more than three years ago. While tech has struggled, energy, consumer staples and industrials have shined so far this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，股市强劲反弹，道琼斯工业平均指数（.DJI）首次突破 50,000 点，主要受半导体公司股票激增的推动。在表面之下，投资者对从科技股转向在过去三年多的牛市中表现不佳的市场其他部分感到鼓舞。尽管科技股表现不佳，但能源、消费品和工业股在今年迄今表现出色。</p>
</div><p>“Rotation is the dominant theme this year and continues to be as we see these old-economy sectors and stocks really get some love,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. “At the same time, the bar of expectations seems to be so high for tech that no matter what companies report, it seems like the natural inclination from investors is to take some profits.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“轮动是今年的主导主题，并且随着我们看到这些传统经济部门和股票真正受到关注，这一主题仍在继续，” 爱德华·琼斯的高级全球投资策略师安杰洛·库尔卡法斯表示。“与此同时，科技股的预期门槛似乎非常高，无论公司报告什么，投资者的自然倾向似乎都是获利了结。”</p>
</div><p>Although the tech sector (.SPLRCT) bounced back on Friday, the group has slid 9% since it peaked for the year in late October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管科技行业（.SPLRCT）在周五反弹，但该组自去年 10 月底达到年度峰值以来已下滑 9%。</p>
</div><p>Over that period, most of the other 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors have posted gains, including four with double-digit percentage rises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此期间，标准普尔 500 指数的其他 11 个行业大多数都实现了增长，其中四个行业的涨幅超过了两位数百分比。</p>
</div><p>But the benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) has managed to eke out only a slim increase in that time. With the tech sector still accounting for about one-third of the weight in the S&amp;P 500, investors fear the index will struggle if tech continues to falter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）在此期间仅勉强实现了微幅上涨。由于科技行业仍占标准普尔 500 指数约三分之一的权重，投资者担心如果科技股继续疲软，指数将面临困难。</p>
</div><p>“A market can absorb a prolonged rotation with large sector winners without obvious index-level stress for quite some time,” Jim Reid, head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note. “However, the longer and deeper the selloff in a dominant sector becomes, the harder it can be for the broader index to withstand the drag.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市场可以在没有明显的指数级压力的情况下，吸收长期的轮动和大型行业赢家的出现，” 德意志银行宏观和主题研究负责人吉姆·里德在一份报告中表示。“然而，主导行业的抛售越长越深，广泛指数承受拖累的难度就越大。”</p>
</div><h3>WHERE NEXT FOR SINKING SOFTWARE?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>软件行业的未来何在？</h3>
</div><p>Stress is centering on software, with the S&amp;P 500 software and services index (.SPLRCIS) tumbling 15% in a little over a week. Fears about AI disruption were compounded by disappointing earnings reports including from software giant Microsoft (MSFT.O) .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>压力集中在软件行业，标准普尔 500 软件和服务指数（.SPLRCIS）在短短一周多的时间内暴跌 15%。对人工智能颠覆的担忧因软件巨头微软（MSFT.O）发布的令人失望的财报而加剧。</p>
</div><p>The fallout for software underscores how investors are increasingly trying to determine winners and losers from AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>软件行业的后果凸显了投资者越来越试图确定人工智能的赢家和输家。</p>
</div><p>“Before, it was ‘AI lifted all ships,’” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. “Now, there are concerns that this massive acceleration in the technology space could cause other businesses to not see the kind of growth rate they did before.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“以前是 ‘人工智能提升了所有船只’，” Manulife John Hancock Investments 的共同首席投资策略师马修·米斯金表示。“现在，人们担心这一技术领域的巨大加速可能导致其他企业无法实现之前的增长率。”</p>
</div><p>The coming week will feature reports in the software industry from AppLovin (APP.O) and Datadog (DDOG.O) . Results are also due from high-profile companies including Coca-Cola (KO.N) , Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) and McDonald’s (MCD.N) as fourth-quarter earnings season winds down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即将到来的一周将有来自 AppLovin（APP.O）和 Datadog（DDOG.O）的软件行业报告。随着第四季度财报季的结束，知名公司如可口可乐（KO.N）、思科系统（CSCO.O）和麦当劳（MCD.N）也将发布业绩。</p>
</div><p>EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION DATA ON TAP Monthly reports on employment and consumer prices will be released after both were pushed back slightly due to the recently ended three-day government shutdown. January’s nonfarm payrolls report, out on Wednesday, is expected to show an increase of 70,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll. Investors are trying to assess whether weakening in the labor market has tapered off. While the Federal Reserve cited stabilization in the jobs market as it held interest rates steady last month, a survey on Thursday showed layoffs announced by U.S. employers surged in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就业和通胀数据即将发布，月度就业和消费者价格报告将在因最近结束的三天政府停摆而略微推迟后发布。根据路透社的调查，预计周三发布的 1 月份非农就业报告将显示增加 70,000 个就业岗位。投资者正在评估劳动力市场的疲软是否已经减缓。尽管美联储在上个月维持利率不变时提到就业市场的稳定，但周四的一项调查显示，美国雇主宣布的裁员在 1 月份激增。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, inflation remains “somewhat elevated” in the view of the Fed, with the January consumer price index due on Friday offering the latest insight into such trends. With the Fed describing diminished risks to both inflation and employment, markets are expecting the central bank to hold off on further interest rate cuts until its June meeting. By that point, President Donald Trump’s newly nominated Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, could be in charge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美联储认为通胀仍然 “略高”，1 月份的消费者价格指数将在周五发布，提供最新的趋势洞察。由于美联储描述了通胀和就业风险的降低，市场预计中央银行将在 6 月会议之前暂停进一步的降息。到那时，唐纳德·特朗普总统新任命的美联储主席凯文·沃什可能会掌权。</p>
</div><p>After the central bank cut rates at the end of last year, Fed fund futures have continued to price in roughly two further quarter-percentage-point cuts by December, expectations that generally held in the wake of the announcement of Warsh’s nomination late last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在中央银行去年年底降息后，美联储基金期货继续预计到 12 月将再降约两个四分之一百分点的利率，这一预期在沃什上个月末被提名后普遍保持不变。</p>
</div><p>“Rate expectations have been remarkably stable over the last couple of weeks,” Kourkafas said. “We’ll see if any either weakness in the labor market data or any surprising cool-down in inflation accelerates a bit the timeline for when the market thinks the next rate cut may be delivered.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“利率预期在过去几周内一直相当稳定，” 库尔卡法斯表示。“我们将看看劳动力市场数据的任何疲软或通胀的任何意外降温是否会加速市场认为下一次降息可能会到来的时间表。”</p>
</div>

Wall St Week Ahead-Tech stock shakeout clouds market ahead of economic data deluge

- 美股周五反弹，道指首次突破 50,000 点，芯片股领涨。  
- 软件股因 AI 影响大幅下跌，投资者对市场动向保持警惕。  
- 下周将发布就业和消费价格报告，市场关注经济健康状况。

Reuters

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华尔街下周展望：科技股的动荡在经济数据即将大量发布之前给市场带来了不确定性