<p>随着比特币价格进一步跌破近期成本基准，弱势投资者正在被迫离场。然而，聪明资金可能只是重新调整，而不是撤退。</p>
<p>随着比特币 [BTC] 从 126,000 美元的峰值回落近 40-50% 至 70,000 美元区间，损失实现加速，导致恐慌驱动的抛售。零售和短期持有者主导了这一抛售，随着强制平仓在衍生品市场蔓延，他们纷纷以亏损抛售。</p>
<p>恐慌加剧，恐惧与贪婪指数也降至 5-20。同时，流动性减少，加剧了下行波动。</p>
<p>市场反应表现为深度压缩和急剧的下跌影线。尽管如此，逢低买入和机构吸纳作为对策出现，稍微稳定了市场情绪，而交易者仍然保持防御性看空。</p>
<h2>短期持有者供应收缩，新的需求减弱</h2>
<p>短期持有者的动态现在延续了之前的抛售和鲸鱼分歧阶段。</p>
<p>最初，在周期末的反弹中，短期持有者的供应扩大，接近 800 万 BTC，因投机需求激增。然而，随着价格回落至 60,000-70,000 美元区间，随之而来的是抛售。供应也稳步收缩，反映出强制退出和损失实现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7hhiWQAADaRe-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7hhiWQAADaRe-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Joao Wedson/ X</p>
<p>与此同时，90 天净头寸变化深度转为负值，周期内的回撤接近-150 万至-200 万 BTC。</p>
<p>这些发展表明新进入者的参与度正在减弱。零售积累停滞，而处于亏损状态的持有者则降低风险。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7gVSacAILr9i-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7gVSacAILr9i-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Joao Wedson/ X</p>
<p>然而，市场流动性在这一撤出过程中也变得稀薄。没有新的资金流入，上行延续失去了结构性支持。相反，数据似乎指向吸纳和基础建设。因此，恢复现在依赖于新需求、改善的情绪和持续的正净头寸。</p>
<p>在之前的供应收缩和压力流动的基础上，成本基准压力仍然是核心驱动因素。在撰写本文时，比特币的估值刚刚超过 69,000 美元。由于短期持有者的实现价格保持在约 92,000-92,500 美元，最近的买家已处于亏损状态。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTC-Realized-Price-STH-MVRV-STH-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTC-Realized-Price-STH-MVRV-STH-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>随着这一差距的扩大，盈利能力进一步压缩。短期持有者的 MVRV 滑落至约 0.75-0.78，确认了深度未实现的损失。随着处于亏损状态的持有者降低风险，卖压随之而来。市场情绪也因这一压力而减弱。</p>
<p>历史上，这种低于 1.0 的 MVRV 区域标志着洗盘阶段。因此，稳定现在将依赖于 MVRV 恢复至 1.0 以及价格重新夺回成本基准。如果损失流动减弱而价格稳定，抛售可能会耗尽，从而允许结构逐渐重建。</p>
<h2>零售乐观与鲸鱼谨慎相碰撞</h2>
<p>鲸鱼的持仓似乎也在强化结构性转变。随着比特币在经历重大损失实现后稳定在 69,000 美元附近，鲸鱼与零售的 Delta 飙升至 0.8 以上——这表明大型玩家在关闭多头的同时开启了空头。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkbnnsWAAAUdqm-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkbnnsWAAAUdqm-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>这一轮换发生在成本基准压缩和上行动能减弱之后。鲸鱼旨在对冲风险并推动整合，而不是追逐反弹。</p>
<p>与此同时，零售资金流仍然保持方向性多头，受到逢低买入乐观情绪和反弹预期的驱动。这种分歧加大了持仓不平衡。</p>
<p>随着聪明资金在强势中降低风险，波动性压缩，上行跟进减弱。因此，市场结构倾向于区间形成，强化了短期整合的格局。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li>随着短期持有者供应收缩和成本基准压力加深，零售抛售正在加速。</li>
<li>鲸鱼对冲和在弱势中建立空头头寸暗示了整合风险，使比特币面临最后一次下行流动性扫荡的脆弱。</li>
</ul>

<p>比特币正经历显著的价格修正，从最高点的 126,000 美元下跌近 40-50%，降至约 70,000 美元。这导致零售和短期持有者出现抛售，而机构投资者似乎在吸收这一下跌。恐惧与贪婪指数大幅下滑，表明市场恐慌加剧。短期持有者的供应正在收缩，市场流动性也在减弱，这可能会阻碍复苏。鲸鱼的持仓表明谨慎的态度，大型玩家在对冲风险。总体而言，比特币的复苏现在依赖于需求的恢复和市场情绪的改善</p>

<p>As Bitcoin slides deeper below recent cost bases, weak hands are capitulating. However, smart money might just be repositioning, rather than retreating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着比特币价格进一步跌破近期成本基准，弱势投资者正在被迫离场。然而，聪明资金可能只是重新调整，而不是撤退。</p>
</div><p>Loss realization accelerated as Bitcoin [BTC] corrected by nearly 40–50% from its $126,000 peak to the $70,000-zone in the recent days, triggering fear-driven distribution. Retail and Short-Term Holders led the capitulation, dumping into losses as long liquidations cascaded across derivatives markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着比特币 [BTC] 从 126,000 美元的峰值回落近 40-50% 至 70,000 美元区间，损失实现加速，导致恐慌驱动的抛售。零售和短期持有者主导了这一抛售，随着强制平仓在衍生品市场蔓延，他们纷纷以亏损抛售。</p>
</div><p>Panic intensified as the Fear &amp; Greed Index sank to 5–20 too. All while liquidity thinned and amplified downside volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>恐慌加剧，恐惧与贪婪指数也降至 5-20。同时，流动性减少，加剧了下行波动。</p>
</div><p>Markets reacted with compressed depth and sharp downward wicks. Still, dip accumulation and institutional absorption emerged as countermeasures, stabilizing the sentiment slightly while traders remained defensively bearish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场反应表现为深度压缩和急剧的下跌影线。尽管如此，逢低买入和机构吸纳作为对策出现，稍微稳定了市场情绪，而交易者仍然保持防御性看空。</p>
</div><h2>Short-Term holder supply contracts as new demand fades</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期持有者供应收缩，新的需求减弱</h2>
</div><p>Short-term holder dynamics have now extended the prior capitulation and whale divergence phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期持有者的动态现在延续了之前的抛售和鲸鱼分歧阶段。</p>
</div><p>Initially, the STH supply expanded during the late-cycle rally, peaking near 8 million BTC as speculative demand surged. However, as the price corrected towards the $60,000–$70,000 band, distribution followed. The supply contracted steadily too, reflecting forced exits and loss realization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，在周期末的反弹中，短期持有者的供应扩大，接近 800 万 BTC，因投机需求激增。然而，随着价格回落至 60,000-70,000 美元区间，随之而来的是抛售。供应也稳步收缩，反映出强制退出和损失实现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7hhiWQAADaRe-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7hhiWQAADaRe-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Joao Wedson/ X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Joao Wedson/ X</p>
</div><p>Simultaneously, the 90-day net position change flipped deeply negative, with drawdowns nearing -1.5 million to -2 million BTC across cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，90 天净头寸变化深度转为负值，周期内的回撤接近-150 万至-200 万 BTC。</p>
</div><p>These developments signaled fading participation from new entrants. Retail accumulation stalled while underwater holders de-risked themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些发展表明新进入者的参与度正在减弱。零售积累停滞，而处于亏损状态的持有者则降低风险。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7gVSacAILr9i-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7gVSacAILr9i-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Joao Wedson/ X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Joao Wedson/ X</p>
</div><p>That’s not all though as market liquidity thinned alongside this withdrawal. Without fresh inflows, upside continuation lost structural support. Instead, the data seemed to point to absorption and base-building. Hence, recovery now hinges on renewed demand, improved sentiment, and sustained positive net positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，市场流动性在这一撤出过程中也变得稀薄。没有新的资金流入，上行延续失去了结构性支持。相反，数据似乎指向吸纳和基础建设。因此，恢复现在依赖于新需求、改善的情绪和持续的正净头寸。</p>
</div><p>Building on the prior supply contraction and distress flows, cost-basis stress remains the core driver. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was valued at just above $69,000. Since the STH realized price has been holding at around $92,000–$92,500, recent buyers have been left underwater.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在之前的供应收缩和压力流动的基础上，成本基准压力仍然是核心驱动因素。在撰写本文时，比特币的估值刚刚超过 69,000 美元。由于短期持有者的实现价格保持在约 92,000-92,500 美元，最近的买家已处于亏损状态。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTC-Realized-Price-STH-MVRV-STH-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTC-Realized-Price-STH-MVRV-STH-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>As this gap widened, the profitability compressed further. The STH-MVRV slid to about 0.75–0.78, confirming deep unrealized losses. Selling pressure followed as underwater holders de-risked themselves. Market sentiment weakened alongside this stress too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着这一差距的扩大，盈利能力进一步压缩。短期持有者的 MVRV 滑落至约 0.75-0.78，确认了深度未实现的损失。随着处于亏损状态的持有者降低风险，卖压随之而来。市场情绪也因这一压力而减弱。</p>
</div><p>Historically, such sub-1.0 MVRV zones mark washout phases. Thus, stabilization will now depend on the MVRV recovering towards 1.0 and the price reclaiming the cost basis. If loss flows taper while the price bases, capitulation could exhaust itself, allowing structure to rebuild gradually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，这种低于 1.0 的 MVRV 区域标志着洗盘阶段。因此，稳定现在将依赖于 MVRV 恢复至 1.0 以及价格重新夺回成本基准。如果损失流动减弱而价格稳定，抛售可能会耗尽，从而允许结构逐渐重建。</p>
</div><h2>Retail optimism collides with whale caution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>零售乐观与鲸鱼谨慎相碰撞</h2>
</div><p>Whale positioning seemed to be reinforcing the structural shift too. As BTC stabilized near $69,000 after heavy loss realization, the whale vs. retail Delta spiked above 0.8 – A sign that large players have been closing longs while opening shorts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲸鱼的持仓似乎也在强化结构性转变。随着比特币在经历重大损失实现后稳定在 69,000 美元附近，鲸鱼与零售的 Delta 飙升至 0.8 以上——这表明大型玩家在关闭多头的同时开启了空头。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkbnnsWAAAUdqm-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkbnnsWAAAUdqm-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>This rotation followed cost-basis compression and weakening upside momentum. Whales aimed to hedge exposure and engineer consolidation, rather than chase recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一轮换发生在成本基准压缩和上行动能减弱之后。鲸鱼旨在对冲风险并推动整合，而不是追逐反弹。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, retail flows remained directionally long, driven by dip-buy optimism and rebound expectations. Such a divergence widened the positioning imbalance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，零售资金流仍然保持方向性多头，受到逢低买入乐观情绪和反弹预期的驱动。这种分歧加大了持仓不平衡。</p>
</div><p>As smart money de-risked into strength, volatility compressed and upside follow-through weakened. Consequently, market structure tilted towards range formation, reinforcing a near-term consolidation regime.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着聪明资金在强势中降低风险，波动性压缩，上行跟进减弱。因此，市场结构倾向于区间形成，强化了短期整合的格局。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Retail capitulation has been accelerating as STH supply contracts and cost-basis stress deepened.</li>
<li>Whale hedging and short positioning into weakness hinted at consolidation risk, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to one final downside liquidity sweep.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>随着短期持有者供应收缩和成本基准压力加深，零售抛售正在加速。</li>
<li>鲸鱼对冲和在弱势中建立空头头寸暗示了整合风险，使比特币面临最后一次下行流动性扫荡的脆弱。</li>
</ul>
</div>

All about Bitcoin and its final downside test before price recovery

- 比特币近期从 $126,000 下跌至 $70,000，导致零售和短期持有者加速抛售。  
- 市场流动性降低，鲸鱼在加强对冲，零售流动性则依然看多。  
- 当前比特币价格略高于 $69,000，市场结构倾向于区间整理。

全面解析比特币及其在价格回升前的最后一次下行测试