<p>在过去 15 年中，最好的投资策略就是简单地买入并持有 “七大巨头”。这就是这么简单。我的前提是，这种局面现在已经结束，我们正进入一个新的局面，新的赢家将会出现。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T215702.821-1024x451.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="451" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T215702.821-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>让我们先来看一下市场动态。在过去的 14 个半星期（自 2025 年 10 月 29 日星期三以来），七大巨头的表现严重不佳（-7.69%），而标准普尔 500 指数的其他股票表现出色（RSP: +6.20%）。整体来看，标准普尔 500 指数的净结果基本持平（+0.60%）。我还在上面的图表中包含了美元（UUP: -3.05%）、标准普尔金属与矿业板块（XME: +24.62%）和标准普尔消费品板块（XLP: +12.13%）的表现。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkQMqdXsAA4KTC.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="261" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkQMqdXsAA4KTC.png"/></p>
<p>虽然多头在庆祝 52 周高点的数量众多和 52 周低点的数量稀少，但这些都是在标准普尔中权重较小的小型股票。没有七大巨头参与，市值加权的标准普尔很难再进一步上涨，因为它们占据了约 35% 的市值。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T220347.583-1024x451.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="451" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T220347.583-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>同样值得注意的是，自 10 月 29 日以来，标准普尔不同板块之间的回报差异巨大。科技和通信服务（包括特斯拉和谷歌）表现明显不佳，而能源、消费品、工业和医疗保健则表现领先。</p>
<p>这意味着什么？</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture11-42-1-1024x738.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture11-42-1-1024x738.webp"/></p>
<p>我认为 Crescat Capital 的首席执行官 Kevin Smith 在他 1 月 31 日的信中说得很到位：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我们相信，我们正处于长期美元周期第三次贬值浪潮的边缘。第一次浪潮发生在大萧条期间，当时富兰克林·D·罗斯福总统于 1933 年 4 月 5 日发布了 6102 号行政命令，要求美国人于 1933 年 5 月 1 日前将大部分私人持有的黄金交给美联储。随后，他于 1934 年 1 月 31 日正式将美元贬值，将黄金价格从每盎司 20.67 美元提高至 35 美元。第二次主要浪潮始于 1971 年 8 月 15 日。当时理查德·尼克松总统宣布关闭 “黄金窗口”，结束了美元与黄金的直接可兑换性以及布雷顿森林固定汇率体系。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>这一论点整合了本博客开头总结的所有表现数据。正如我们所指出的，美元（UUP）下跌了 3.05%，而标准普尔金属与矿业板块上涨了 24.62%，科技（XLK）和通信服务（XLC）则表现不佳。换句话说，随着美元承压，投资者正在从数字资产转向实物资产，因为自 1971 年 8 月 15 日尼克松切断与金本位最后联系以来，全球法定货币秩序正在解体。在这个新局面中，旧的公式（MAGS）正在被新的公式取代：实物资产 &gt; 数字资产。</p>
<p>能源、工业、消费品和医疗保健的优异表现也很好地契合了这一框架。能源是一种实物资产，而工业则是将实物资产从地球中提取并转化为推动世界运转的基础设施。消费品和医疗保健是防御性板块，投资者在这一过渡期也在转向这些领域。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T222544.911-1024x451.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="451" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T222544.911-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>如果不提及贵金属的优异表现，我将感到遗憾，这也符合这一框架。历史上，黄金和白银支撑着纸币，而我们现在正处于回归这种货币观念的过程中。你可以看到，中央银行储备中黄金的比例在增加，而美元的比例在减少。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture18-32-1.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture18-32-1.webp"/></p>
<p>通过买入并持有七大巨头实现显著超额收益的时代已经结束。人工智能是未来一个重要的因素，但主导因素是基于法定货币的全球经济秩序的解体。大多数投资者仍停留在之前的范式中，而少数人理解新的范式。那些理解的人将在未来几年赚到真正的钱，而其他人将被抛在后面。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>PYPL 太便宜了，将回报耐心的股东</p>
<p>哦，天哪！为什么这个季度可能是一个转折点</p>
<p>CMG 仍然被定价为成长股，但它已经没有任何增长了</p>

<p>这篇文章讨论了投资策略从数字资产转向实物资产的变化，表明之前 “七大奇迹” 股票的成功已经结束。最近的表现数据显示，虽然 “七大奇迹” 表现不佳，但能源、消费品和医疗保健等行业却蓬勃发展。作者引用了凯文·史密斯对美国美元可能出现第三次贬值浪潮的看法，暗示投资者正在转向实物资产，因为法定货币体系正在崩溃。文章强调了适应这一新经济体制对于未来投资成功的重要性</p>

<p>For more than 15 years, the best strategy which would have made you a fortune was simply to buy and hold The Magnificent 7. It was that easy. My premise is that that regime is now over and we are entering a new one with a new set of winners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去 15 年中，最好的投资策略就是简单地买入并持有 “七大巨头”。这就是这么简单。我的前提是，这种局面现在已经结束，我们正进入一个新的局面，新的赢家将会出现。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T215702.821-1024x451.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T215702.821-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>Let’s start with the tape. Over the last 14 1/2 weeks (since Wednesday October 29, 2025), The Magnificent 7 have badly underperformed (-7.69%) while the rest of the S&amp;P 500 has performed superbly (RSP: +6.20%). The net result for the S&amp;P as a whole has essentially been flat (+0.60%). I have also included the performance of The Dollar (UUP: -3.05%), The S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining Sector (XME: +24.62%) and The S&amp;P Consumer Staples Sector (XLP: +12.13%) in the chart above.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们先来看一下市场动态。在过去的 14 个半星期（自 2025 年 10 月 29 日星期三以来），七大巨头的表现严重不佳（-7.69%），而标准普尔 500 指数的其他股票表现出色（RSP: +6.20%）。整体来看，标准普尔 500 指数的净结果基本持平（+0.60%）。我还在上面的图表中包含了美元（UUP: -3.05%）、标准普尔金属与矿业板块（XME: +24.62%）和标准普尔消费品板块（XLP: +12.13%）的表现。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkQMqdXsAA4KTC.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkQMqdXsAA4KTC.png"/></p>
<p>While bulls are celebrating the large number of 52-week highs and low number of 52-week lows, those are smaller stocks with small weightings in the S&amp;P. It will be difficult for the market cap weighted S&amp;P to go much higher without The Magnificent 7 participating because they make up ~35% of its market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然多头在庆祝 52 周高点的数量众多和 52 周低点的数量稀少，但这些都是在标准普尔中权重较小的小型股票。没有七大巨头参与，市值加权的标准普尔很难再进一步上涨，因为它们占据了约 35% 的市值。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T220347.583-1024x451.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T220347.583-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>It’s also interesting to note the enormous dispersion of returns between the different sectors of the S&amp;P since October 29. Tech and Communications Services (which includes TSLA and GOOG/GOOGL) have notably underperformed while Energy, Staples, Industrials and Health Care have led.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样值得注意的是，自 10 月 29 日以来，标准普尔不同板块之间的回报差异巨大。科技和通信服务（包括特斯拉和谷歌）表现明显不佳，而能源、消费品、工业和医疗保健则表现领先。</p>
</div><p>What does it all mean?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着什么？</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture11-42-1-1024x738.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture11-42-1-1024x738.webp"/></p>
<p>I think Kevin Smith, CEO of Crescat Capital – one of the best performing hedge funds in the world at the moment – nailed it in his January 31 letter:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为 Crescat Capital 的首席执行官 Kevin Smith 在他 1 月 31 日的信中说得很到位：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>We believe we are on the cusp of the third devaluation wave of the long-term US dollar cycle. The first wave was during the Great Depression, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102 on April 5, 1933, requiring Americans to surrender most of their privately held gold to the Federal Reserve by May 1, 1933. He then officially devalued the dollar by raising the gold price from $20.67 to $35 per ounce on January 31, 1934. The second major wave began on August 15, 1971. That was when President Richard Nixon announced the closing of the “gold window”, which ended both the direct convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold for foreign governments as well as the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我们相信，我们正处于长期美元周期第三次贬值浪潮的边缘。第一次浪潮发生在大萧条期间，当时富兰克林·D·罗斯福总统于 1933 年 4 月 5 日发布了 6102 号行政命令，要求美国人于 1933 年 5 月 1 日前将大部分私人持有的黄金交给美联储。随后，他于 1934 年 1 月 31 日正式将美元贬值，将黄金价格从每盎司 20.67 美元提高至 35 美元。第二次主要浪潮始于 1971 年 8 月 15 日。当时理查德·尼克松总统宣布关闭 “黄金窗口”，结束了美元与黄金的直接可兑换性以及布雷顿森林固定汇率体系。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>This thesis integrates all of the performance data summarized at the start of this blog. As we noted, the dollar (UUP) is -3.05% while The S&amp;P Metals and Mining Sector is +24.62% while Technology (XLK) and Communications Services (XLC) underperform. In other words, investors are rotating out of digital assets into hard assets as the dollar comes under pressure as the global fiat monetary order that has existed since Nixon removed the last link to the gold standard on August 15, 1971 unravels. In this new regime, the old formula (MAGS) is being replaced by a new one: Hard Assets &gt; Digital Assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一论点整合了本博客开头总结的所有表现数据。正如我们所指出的，美元（UUP）下跌了 3.05%，而标准普尔金属与矿业板块上涨了 24.62%，科技（XLK）和通信服务（XLC）则表现不佳。换句话说，随着美元承压，投资者正在从数字资产转向实物资产，因为自 1971 年 8 月 15 日尼克松切断与金本位最后联系以来，全球法定货币秩序正在解体。在这个新局面中，旧的公式（MAGS）正在被新的公式取代：实物资产 &gt; 数字资产。</p>
</div><p>The outperformance of Energy, Industrials, Consumer Staples and Health Care also fits nicely into this framework. Energy is a hard asset and you need Industrials to get the hard assets out of the earth and turn them into the infrastructure that makes the world go. Consumer Staples and Health Care are defensive sectors that investors are rotating into as well during this transitionary period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源、工业、消费品和医疗保健的优异表现也很好地契合了这一框架。能源是一种实物资产，而工业则是将实物资产从地球中提取并转化为推动世界运转的基础设施。消费品和医疗保健是防御性板块，投资者在这一过渡期也在转向这些领域。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T222544.911-1024x451.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T222544.911-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the outperformance of everything by the precious metals which also fits into the framework. Historically, gold and silver backed paper money and we are now in the process of reverting back to that conception of money. You can see this in the increasing proportion of gold and decreasing proportion of the dollar comprising central bank reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果不提及贵金属的优异表现，我将感到遗憾，这也符合这一框架。历史上，黄金和白银支撑着纸币，而我们现在正处于回归这种货币观念的过程中。你可以看到，中央银行储备中黄金的比例在增加，而美元的比例在减少。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture18-32-1.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture18-32-1.webp"/></p>
<p>The days of achieving significant outperformance by buying and holding The Magnificent 7 are over. Artificial Intelligence is an important vector going forward but the dominant one is the unraveling of the fiat money based global economic order. Most investors are stuck in the previous paradigm while few understand the new one. Those who do will make the real money in the years ahead while the rest will be left behind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过买入并持有七大巨头实现显著超额收益的时代已经结束。人工智能是未来一个重要的因素，但主导因素是基于法定货币的全球经济秩序的解体。大多数投资者仍停留在之前的范式中，而少数人理解新的范式。那些理解的人将在未来几年赚到真正的钱，而其他人将被抛在后面。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>PYPL Is Too Cheap And Will Reward Patient Shareholders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PYPL 太便宜了，将回报耐心的股东</p>
</div><p>Oh SNAP! Why This Quarter Might Be An Inflection Point</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哦，天哪！为什么这个季度可能是一个转折点</p>
</div><p>CMG Is Still Priced Like A Growth Stock – But It No Longer Has Any Growth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CMG 仍然被定价为成长股，但它已经没有任何增长了</p>
</div>

硬资产优于数字资产：解读新的宏观体制