<p>财报季有时会很艰难。这次我们看到多个 AI 股票 的表现不佳。<strong>超微半导体</strong>（ AMD +8.32%）和 <strong>微软</strong>（ MSFT +2.00%）的股票在最近的季度更新后大幅下跌。谷歌母公司 <strong>字母表</strong>（ GOOG 2.48%)( GOOGL 2.53%）的股票尽管报告了令人印象深刻的业绩，但仍然小幅下滑。</p>
<p>亚马逊( AMZN 5.55%) 现在也加入了这个行列。该电商和云服务巨头的股票在周五因公司周四晚间发布的第四季度更新而下跌了大约 6%。不过，我有一个预测：亚马逊的抛售将为 2026 年的巨大反弹铺平道路。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FNWk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="亚马逊股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FNWk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
<p>亚马逊</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-5.55%) $-12.37</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$210.32</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$2.2T</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$200.31 - $211.44</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$161.38 - $258.60</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>131K</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>44M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>50.29%</p>
<h2>经典的市场过度反应</h2>
<p>亚马逊在最新季度更新后的下跌有两个原因。首先，公司未能达到华尔街的盈利预期。其次，投资者对亚马逊预计今年的资本支出将达到 2000 亿美元感到不满，这比 2025 年的资本支出约 1320 亿美元大幅增加。然而，我认为亚马逊的抛售反映了经典的市场过度反应。</p>
<p>我们先从盈利缺口开始。确实，亚马逊在第四季度报告的每股收益（EPS）为 1.95 美元，略低于分析师预期的 1.97 美元。但将公司的盈利数字放在上下文中来看是很重要的。亚马逊记录了特殊费用，导致其营业收入减少了 24 亿美元。根据我的计算，这些特殊费用使公司的每股收益降低了约 0.22 美元。此外，亚马逊报告的 2134 亿美元的收入轻松超出了华尔街预期的 2113 亿美元。</p>
<p>我怀疑更大的问题是亚马逊对 2026 年的资本支出预测。FactSet 调查的分析师预计资本支出在 1470 亿美元左右。亚马逊的巨大支出增加是否令人担忧？我认为并不。</p>
<p>大部分资本支出将用于亚马逊网络服务（AWS）。然而，亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西在第四季度的财报电话会议上对此次投资增加做出了很好的解释，他表示：“我们有非常高的需求。客户确实希望 AWS 用于核心和 AI 工作负载。”</p>
<p>当投资能够产生良好回报时，它们并不是坏事。贾西表示，亚马逊正在 “尽快将能力货币化”。他补充道：“我们在 AWS 业务中对需求信号有深刻的理解，然后将这些能力转化为强劲的投资回报率。我们相信在这里也会如此。” 我对亚马逊提供卓越的投资回报率也充满信心。</p>
<h2>亚马逊继续全力以赴</h2>
<p>重要的是，亚马逊的业务在各个方面依然强劲。第四季度收入同比增长 14%。盈利同比增长 6%，如果没有上述特殊费用，增幅会更好。</p>
<p>AWS 的势头在第四季度加速，收入同比飙升 24%。这一增长是亚马逊在 13 个季度中看到的最强劲的。顺便提一下，AWS 在 2025 年结束时的年化收入运行率为 1420 亿美元。贾西在第四季度的电话会议上观察到：“在 1420 亿美元的年化运行率上实现 24% 的同比增长，与在一个明显更小的基础上实现更高的百分比增长是非常不同的。”</p>
<p>也不要指望 AWS 的增长在短期内放缓。该云服务部门的积压订单现在为 2440 亿美元，同比增长 40%，比上一季度增长 22%。</p>
<p>亚马逊已经成为一个广告巨头。第四季度广告收入同比增长 22%，达到 213 亿美元。公司电商平台上的赞助产品广告尤其盈利。Prime Video 广告现在也成为收入增长的重要贡献者。</p>
<p>公司的电商业务表现良好，特别是在国际市场。Profitero 最近进行的一项研究发现，亚马逊连续第九年成为美国最低成本零售商，价格平均比其他顶级在线零售商低 14%。亚马逊继续加快交付速度，从而提高客户的购物频率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTUwOTAvYW1hem9uLXRydWNrLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="3012" height="2008" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTUwOTAvYW1hem9uLXRydWNrLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
<h2>短期抛售，长期护城河</h2>
<p>亚马逊股价的回调在过去为投资者创造了绝佳的买入机会。我相信这将再次发生，股票将在最新下跌后强劲反弹。亚马逊是我所知道的 护城河最宽的股票，这部分得益于其低价结构和庞大的运营规模。长期的护城河远比短期的抛售重要。</p>

亚马逊财报，一站看懂！

电子商务 ETF - GlobalX

云计算 ETF - GlobalX

亚马逊

AMZW

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AMZZ

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在线零售 ETF - ProShares

线上零售 ETF - Amplify

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<p>亚马逊的股价在发布第四季度财报后下跌了约 6%，未能达到华尔街的每股收益预期，并宣布 2026 年资本支出将大幅增加。尽管如此，该公司的收入同比增长了 14%，AWS 的收入激增了 24%。分析师认为此次抛售是市场的过度反应，对亚马逊的长期增长潜力，特别是在 AWS 和广告领域，依然充满信心。预测认为，这一下跌将为 2026 年的大幅反弹奠定基础，因为亚马逊的业务基本面依然强劲</p>

<p>Earnings seasons can sometimes be rough. We're seeing it this time around with several AI stocks. <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>' ( AMD +8.32%) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s ( MSFT +2.00%) shares plunged after its recent quarterly update. Google parent <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s ( GOOG 2.48%)( GOOGL 2.53%) stock declined moderately despite reporting impressive results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财报季有时会很艰难。这次我们看到多个 AI 股票 的表现不佳。<strong>超微半导体</strong>（ AMD +8.32%）和 <strong>微软</strong>（ MSFT +2.00%）的股票在最近的季度更新后大幅下跌。谷歌母公司 <strong>字母表</strong>（ GOOG 2.48%)( GOOGL 2.53%）的股票尽管报告了令人印象深刻的业绩，但仍然小幅下滑。</p>
</div><p>Amazon( AMZN 5.55%) has now joined the club. Shares of the e-commerce and cloud services giant fell roughly 6% on Friday following the company's fourth-quarter update Thursday evening. I have a prediction, though: Amazon's sell-off will set up a monster rebound in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊( AMZN 5.55%) 现在也加入了这个行列。该电商和云服务巨头的股票在周五因公司周四晚间发布的第四季度更新而下跌了大约 6%。不过，我有一个预测：亚马逊的抛售将为 2026 年的巨大反弹铺平道路。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FNWk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Amazon Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FAMZN.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
</div><p>Amazon</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-5.55%) $-12.37</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-5.55%) $-12.37</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$210.32</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$210.32</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$2.2T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$2.2T</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$200.31 - $211.44</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$200.31 - $211.44</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$161.38 - $258.60</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$161.38 - $258.60</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>131K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>131K</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>44M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>44M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>50.29%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>50.29%</p>
</div><h2>A classic market overreaction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>经典的市场过度反应</h2>
</div><p>Two factors caused Amazon's decline following its latest quarterly update. First, the company missed Wall Street's earnings estimate. Second investors didn't like that Amazon forecasts capital expenditures of $200 billion this year, a big jump from the 2025 capex of around $132 billion. However, I think Amazon's sell-off reflects a classic market overreaction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在最新季度更新后的下跌有两个原因。首先，公司未能达到华尔街的盈利预期。其次，投资者对亚马逊预计今年的资本支出将达到 2000 亿美元感到不满，这比 2025 年的资本支出约 1320 亿美元大幅增加。然而，我认为亚马逊的抛售反映了经典的市场过度反应。</p>
</div><p>Let's start with the earnings miss. To be sure, Amazon's reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.95 in Q4 was slightly lower than the $1.97 expected by analysts. But it's important to put the company's earnings number in context. Amazon recorded special charges that reduced its operating income by $2.4 billion. By my calculations, these special charges lowered the company's EPS by around $0.22. Also, Amazon's reported revenue of $213.4 billion easily beat Wall Street's estimate of $211.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们先从盈利缺口开始。确实，亚马逊在第四季度报告的每股收益（EPS）为 1.95 美元，略低于分析师预期的 1.97 美元。但将公司的盈利数字放在上下文中来看是很重要的。亚马逊记录了特殊费用，导致其营业收入减少了 24 亿美元。根据我的计算，这些特殊费用使公司的每股收益降低了约 0.22 美元。此外，亚马逊报告的 2134 亿美元的收入轻松超出了华尔街预期的 2113 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>I suspect the bigger issue was Amazon's projected capex for 2026. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting capital expenditures in the ballpark of $147 billion. Is Amazon's massive spending increase worrisome? I don't think so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我怀疑更大的问题是亚马逊对 2026 年的资本支出预测。FactSet 调查的分析师预计资本支出在 1470 亿美元左右。亚马逊的巨大支出增加是否令人担忧？我认为并不。</p>
</div><p>Most of the capex will go to Amazon Web Services (AWS). However, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy had a good explanation for the increased investments on the Q4 earnings call, stating, &#34;[W] e have very high demand. Customers really want AWS for core and AI workloads.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大部分资本支出将用于亚马逊网络服务（AWS）。然而，亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西在第四季度的财报电话会议上对此次投资增加做出了很好的解释，他表示：“我们有非常高的需求。客户确实希望 AWS 用于核心和 AI 工作负载。”</p>
</div><p>Investments aren't bad when they generate solid returns. Jassy said that Amazon is &#34;monetizing capacity as fast as we can install it.&#34; He added, &#34;We have deep experience understanding demand signals in the AWS business and then turning that capacity into strong return on invested capital. We are confident this will be the case here as well.&#34; I'm confident in Amazon's ability to deliver exceptional ROIC, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当投资能够产生良好回报时，它们并不是坏事。贾西表示，亚马逊正在 “尽快将能力货币化”。他补充道：“我们在 AWS 业务中对需求信号有深刻的理解，然后将这些能力转化为强劲的投资回报率。我们相信在这里也会如此。” 我对亚马逊提供卓越的投资回报率也充满信心。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon continues to fire on all cylinders</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊继续全力以赴</h2>
</div><p>Importantly, Amazon's business remains strong on all fronts. Revenue jumped 14% year over year in Q4. Earnings rose 6% year over year and the increase would have been even better without those aforementioned special charges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，亚马逊的业务在各个方面依然强劲。第四季度收入同比增长 14%。盈利同比增长 6%，如果没有上述特殊费用，增幅会更好。</p>
</div><p>AWS' momentum accelerated in Q4, with revenue soaring 24% year over year. This growth is the strongest that Amazon has seen in 13 quarters. By the way, AWS ended 2025 with an annualized revenue run rate of $142 billion. Jassy was right when he observed in the Q4 call that &#34;it's very different having 24% year-over-year growth on a $142 billion annualized run rate than to have a higher percentage growth on a meaningfully smaller base.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS 的势头在第四季度加速，收入同比飙升 24%。这一增长是亚马逊在 13 个季度中看到的最强劲的。顺便提一下，AWS 在 2025 年结束时的年化收入运行率为 1420 亿美元。贾西在第四季度的电话会议上观察到：“在 1420 亿美元的年化运行率上实现 24% 的同比增长，与在一个明显更小的基础上实现更高的百分比增长是非常不同的。”</p>
</div><p>Don't expect AWS' growth to slow anytime soon, either. The cloud service unit's backlog is now $244 billion, up 40% year over year and 22% from the previous quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也不要指望 AWS 的增长在短期内放缓。该云服务部门的积压订单现在为 2440 亿美元，同比增长 40%，比上一季度增长 22%。</p>
</div><p>Amazon has become an advertising juggernaut. Ad revenue increased 22% year over year in Q4 to $21.3 billion. Sponsored product advertising on the company's e-commerce platform is especially lucrative. Prime Video ads are also now a meaningful contributor to revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊已经成为一个广告巨头。第四季度广告收入同比增长 22%，达到 213 亿美元。公司电商平台上的赞助产品广告尤其盈利。Prime Video 广告现在也成为收入增长的重要贡献者。</p>
</div><p>The company's e-commerce business is performing well, particularly in international markets. A recent study conducted by Profitero found that Amazon was the lowest-cost retailer in the U.S. for the ninth consecutive year, with prices 14% lower on average than other top online retailers. Amazon continues to accelerate the speed of its deliveries, which boosts customers' shopping frequency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的电商业务表现良好，特别是在国际市场。Profitero 最近进行的一项研究发现，亚马逊连续第九年成为美国最低成本零售商，价格平均比其他顶级在线零售商低 14%。亚马逊继续加快交付速度，从而提高客户的购物频率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTUwOTAvYW1hem9uLXRydWNrLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="A truck with the Amazon arrow logo on the trailer parked next to a building." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F855090%2Famazon-truck.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><h2>Short-term sell-off, long-term moats</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期抛售，长期护城河</h2>
</div><p>Pullbacks in Amazon's share price have created excellent buying opportunities for investors in the past. I'm confident this will happen again, with the stock rebounding strongly following its latest decline. Amazon is one of the widest-moat stocks I know, thanks in part to its low-price structure and huge scale of operations. And long-term moats are much more important than short-term sell-offs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊股价的回调在过去为投资者创造了绝佳的买入机会。我相信这将再次发生，股票将在最新下跌后强劲反弹。亚马逊是我所知道的 护城河最宽的股票，这部分得益于其低价结构和庞大的运营规模。长期的护城河远比短期的抛售重要。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Amazon's Sell-Off Will Set Up a Monster Rebound in 2026

- 亚马逊在第四季度报告后股价下跌约 6%。  
- 公司未达华尔街盈利预期，并计划将资本支出提高至 2000 亿美元。  
- 尽管短期内回调，亚马逊的长期潜力依然强劲。

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预测：亚马逊的抛售将为 2026 年的强劲反弹做好准备