<p>日本首相高市早苗在周末的快闪选举中巩固了自己的地位，她所领导的自民党赢得了压倒性胜利，获得了 “超级多数” 的授权。这使她能够推进财政扩张，积极推动暂停两年的食品销售税。</p>
<p>_高市交易_的定义是与日元贬值相关，但本周迄今为止，反应却恰恰相反。那么，究竟发生了什么？</p>
<p>好吧，美元/日元在周一开盘时略微高开，突破 157.50，但东京官员迅速进行了口头干预。持续的实际干预威胁限制了任何上涨，昨日美元走弱也没有帮助。</p>
<p>在前几周的 “利率检查” 之后，交易员们保持警惕，实际干预显然是下一步。而随着快闪选举结果的出炉，似乎只是时间问题，而不是是否会进行实际干预。</p>
<p>到目前为止，美元/日元的买家并没有像过去一周那样真正突破东京的限制。该货币对今天再次下跌 0.2%，目前在 155.50 水平，保持在其 200 小时移动平均线（蓝线）下方。因此，这确认了短期内更看跌的偏向，只要该货币对保持在当前的关键短期水平 155.62 下方。</p>
<p>但只要该货币对继续保持在 155.00 以上，我认为这增加了实际干预发生的可能性。东京官员非常清楚，他们可能被迫在接近 160.00 的地方划定界限，这在目前的市场分析师中似乎是一个普遍的看法。</p>
<p>因此，即使我们看到美元/日元的价格走势本周继续 “尊重” 干预风险，这并不意味着我们注定会在该货币对中走向下行趋势。</p>
<p>毫无疑问，实际干预将会大幅打压该货币对，正如我们在过去的几次干预中所见。但同样，该货币对总是显示出在基本面没有变化的情况下能够恢复。而在这种特定情况下，似乎事情再次以这种方式发展。</p>
<p>作为提醒，美元/日元在 2024 年 7 月的干预后从 160.00 下跌至接近 140.00。然而，该货币对在短短六个月内迅速恢复，重新回到 159.00。</p>

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

1346

2525

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

1369

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

<p>目前，美元/日元货币对受到日本首相高市早苗最近选举胜利的影响，这为财政扩张和潜在的干预风险提供了可能性。尽管该货币对略微上涨至 157.50 以上，但东京官员的口头干预限制了涨幅，目前该货币对在 155.50。分析师建议，如果该货币对保持在 155.00 以上，可能会发生干预，历史上在过去的干预后有恢复的先例。市场保持谨慎，交易者预计东京官员可能采取的行动</p>

<p>Japan prime minister Takaichi solidified her standing in the snap election over the weekend, with her ruling LDP party claiming a landslide victory and securing a 'supermajority' mandate. That allows her to proceed with her fiscal expansion, spreading her dovish wings in pushing for a suspension of food sales tax for two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本首相高市早苗在周末的快闪选举中巩固了自己的地位，她所领导的自民党赢得了压倒性胜利，获得了 “超级多数” 的授权。这使她能够推进财政扩张，积极推动暂停两年的食品销售税。</p>
</div><p>The <em>Takaichi trade</em> has been defined by one with a weakening yen currency but so far this week, the reaction has been opposite that. So, what gives?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>_高市交易_的定义是与日元贬值相关，但本周迄今为止，反应却恰恰相反。那么，究竟发生了什么？</p>
</div><p>Well, USD/JPY did open with a slight gap higher on Monday to nudge above 157.50 before Tokyo officials quickly stepped in with verbal intervention. The continued threats of actual intervention is what is limiting any upside, with a weaker dollar yesterday not helping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好吧，美元/日元在周一开盘时略微高开，突破 157.50，但东京官员迅速进行了口头干预。持续的实际干预威胁限制了任何上涨，昨日美元走弱也没有帮助。</p>
</div><p>After the 'rate checks' in previous weeks, that is keeping traders on alert that actual intervention is definitely the next step now. And with the snap election results, it feels like a question of when and not if actual intervention is coming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在前几周的 “利率检查” 之后，交易员们保持警惕，实际干预显然是下一步。而随着快闪选举结果的出炉，似乎只是时间问题，而不是是否会进行实际干预。</p>
</div><p>So far, USD/JPY buyers are not really pushing the limits of Tokyo as seen in the past week or so. The pair is down 0.2% again today to 155.50 levels now, keeping just below its 200-hour moving average (blue line). As such, that reaffirms a more bearish near-term bias for now. That so long as the pair keeps below the key near-term level, seen at 155.62 currently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，美元/日元的买家并没有像过去一周那样真正突破东京的限制。该货币对今天再次下跌 0.2%，目前在 155.50 水平，保持在其 200 小时移动平均线（蓝线）下方。因此，这确认了短期内更看跌的偏向，只要该货币对保持在当前的关键短期水平 155.62 下方。</p>
</div><p>But so long as the pair continues to hold above the 155.00 mark in general, I'd say that increases the odds of actual intervention taking place. Tokyo officials know very well that they might be forced to draw a line closer to 160.00 and that certainly seems to be a popular view among market analysts at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但只要该货币对继续保持在 155.00 以上，我认为这增加了实际干预发生的可能性。东京官员非常清楚，他们可能被迫在接近 160.00 的地方划定界限，这在目前的市场分析师中似乎是一个普遍的看法。</p>
</div><p>So even as we see USD/JPY price action continue to &#34;respect&#34; intervention risks this week, it doesn't mean that we are bound for a lower trend in the currency pair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使我们看到美元/日元的价格走势本周继续 “尊重” 干预风险，这并不意味着我们注定会在该货币对中走向下行趋势。</p>
</div><p>There is no doubt that actual intervention will knock down the pair hard as we have seen with episodes in the past. But similarly, the pair has always shown that it can recover back amid a lack of shifts in the fundamental picture. And in this particular instance, that seems to be how things are playing out once again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，实际干预将会大幅打压该货币对，正如我们在过去的几次干预中所见。但同样，该货币对总是显示出在基本面没有变化的情况下能够恢复。而在这种特定情况下，似乎事情再次以这种方式发展。</p>
</div><p>As a reminder, USD/JPY dipped lower from 160.00 to near 140.00 after the intervention back in July 2024. However, the pair quickly recovered to move back to 159.00 in a period of just six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为提醒，美元/日元在 2024 年 7 月的干预后从 160.00 下跌至接近 140.00。然而，该货币对在短短六个月内迅速恢复，重新回到 159.00。</p>
</div>

USD/JPY continues to respect intervention risks, but for how long?

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Asset Management One Co., Ltd.

美元兑日元汇率继续受到干预风险的影响，但这种情况能持续多久？