<p>真实零售销售，作为我最喜欢的广泛经济指标之一，今早更新至 12 月——仍然滞后一个月，因为在正常情况下，1 月的数据本应在本周发布。</p>
<p>尽管如此，消费者支出约占整个经济的 70%，这是本月最重要的经济报告之一，与真实个人支出一起，成为该领域的最佳衡量标准。此外，由于它们与就业之间的领先但嘈杂的关系，它们在目前尤其重要，因为就业创造即将转向下行。</p>
<p>名义上，12 月的零售销售与 11 月相比没有变化，11 月经过下调修正为 +0.5%。考虑到每月价格上涨 0.3%，真实销售下降了-0.3%。由于没有 10 月的 CPI 报告，我们对 11 月的最好说法是，按真实值计算（下图中的蓝色），与 9 月相比销售增长了 0.2%：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisz47g70WNV0nbgCgkS0XFM4AxzNi0a0SDeNXNo697otBAwWHfLf5LSYPPBgbkGPj2Yqx2LENW9IpcKfndcGVB62YsCX1bUd5h44dB8Figs3FKLJUBjq6UTEapJ8O40Z_CywXuUNd-Pd6l3amJMZGbghD8vI00kFqKM65LdLlmBulz4P_AjoUp9YygiBoV/s2160/IMG_2719.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2160" height="960" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisz47g70WNV0nbgCgkS0XFM4AxzNi0a0SDeNXNo697otBAwWHfLf5LSYPPBgbkGPj2Yqx2LENW9IpcKfndcGVB62YsCX1bUd5h44dB8Figs3FKLJUBjq6UTEapJ8O40Z_CywXuUNd-Pd6l3amJMZGbghD8vI00kFqKM65LdLlmBulz4P_AjoUp9YygiBoV/s2160/IMG_2719.jpeg"/></p>
<p>但如此计算，12 月的真实零售销售较 9 月的峰值下降了-0.4%。此外，如果你相信我所相信的，即关闭避难所的临时措施在 9 月至 11 月期间减少了约 0.2% 的消费者通胀，那么比较结果就会变得更加糟糕。</p>
<p>请注意，上图还显示了更全面的真实个人商品支出指标（黄金），截至其最近的 11 月报告，确实创下了新高。</p>
<p>除此之外，真实零售销售同比首次转为负值，自 2024 年 9 月以来首次出现。回顾过去 75 年（尽管我不会麻烦提供长期历史图表），同比真实零售销售的下降几乎总是意味着经济衰退（但 2023 年是明显的例外！）：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT7O0DdI7AIKQQSvFAal_sA8fXNH80LAc6GxAyaUsAyfvQcfgcVG2BSaaT3aAajReACQNiQOKJ0Fb3bSr5vDA6gw1DQlW7Ay347m1cN7q6r_smM2TH6kmRqpMlOp21rTdIxqTwXz9jWNCUaqABrsBTdL-94h86Ik0zXC3zR9YNwymhpyY7jKcc9KRzDaxd/s2160/IMG_2720.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2160" height="958" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT7O0DdI7AIKQQSvFAal_sA8fXNH80LAc6GxAyaUsAyfvQcfgcVG2BSaaT3aAajReACQNiQOKJ0Fb3bSr5vDA6gw1DQlW7Ay347m1cN7q6r_smM2TH6kmRqpMlOp21rTdIxqTwXz9jWNCUaqABrsBTdL-94h86Ik0zXC3zR9YNwymhpyY7jKcc9KRzDaxd/s2160/IMG_2720.jpeg"/></p>
<p>这尤其重要，因为正如我上面所写，消费引领就业。随着 2025 年末同比比较恶化并现在转为负值，不用说，这对今年初的就业形势预示着不利。以下是同比真实销售和真实个人商品支出（/2 以便于比较）与就业（红色）的更新：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiodClONRDtYiiSi-tGNZgAjzJB8kVmSqe4aVkoBO-VtVApLxZInJ-0Msnlp6u4z8iQIOf_MhlF5P2KxUhHTy6pozzWZz8ChtPbsQFF6HXjqn-pkOSEqRHiPJrueL_SvNH6EQgwY33P1raGQC9sw_CfFLu3BUW3X5CjivfuZcJDVaTi02kHEXpQ6aguI-bP/s2153/IMG_2721.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2153" height="952" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiodClONRDtYiiSi-tGNZgAjzJB8kVmSqe4aVkoBO-VtVApLxZInJ-0Msnlp6u4z8iQIOf_MhlF5P2KxUhHTy6pozzWZz8ChtPbsQFF6HXjqn-pkOSEqRHiPJrueL_SvNH6EQgwY33P1raGQC9sw_CfFLu3BUW3X5CjivfuZcJDVaTi02kHEXpQ6aguI-bP/s2153/IMG_2721.jpeg"/></p>
<p>上个月我得出结论：“消费同比增长的急剧减速预示着就业的下滑，并暗示未来几个月的就业报告不会好转。” 本月的报告进一步证实了这一点。我们将在明天的 1 月报告中得知这一点是否属实。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>预计避难所通胀将在接下来的几份 CPI 报告中继续减缓</p>
<p>12 月 JOLTS 报告显示，尽管有一个负面的 “软数据” 异常值，但仍在接近停滞速度的稳定状态</p>
<p>失业救济申请上升，但同比仍主要下降</p>

<p>经过价格上涨 0.3% 的调整后，12 月份的实际零售销售下降了 0.3%，较 9 月份的高峰下降了 0.4%。同比来看，实际零售销售自 2024 年 9 月以来首次转为负值，显示出潜在的衰退风险和不佳的就业前景。这一趋势表明，消费正在减弱，而消费对就业的影响显著，预示着未来几个月的就业创造将出现下降。报告强调了零售销售作为关键经济指标的重要性，特别是在消费者支出和就业趋势方面</p>

<p>Real retail sales, one of my favorite broad-economy indicators, was updated through December this morning — still stale by one month, as under normal circumstances January’s numbers would have been released this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>真实零售销售，作为我最喜欢的广泛经济指标之一，今早更新至 12 月——仍然滞后一个月，因为在正常情况下，1 月的数据本应在本周发布。</p>
</div><p>Still, with consumer spending being about 70% of the entire economy, this is one of the most important economic reports of the month, and along with real personal spending, the two best measures of that sector. Further, because of their leading albeit noisy relationship with employment, they are particularly important right now, with job creation on the verge of turning down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，消费者支出约占整个经济的 70%，这是本月最重要的经济报告之一，与真实个人支出一起，成为该领域的最佳衡量标准。此外，由于它们与就业之间的领先但嘈杂的关系，它们在目前尤其重要，因为就业创造即将转向下行。</p>
</div><p>Nominally, retail sales were unchanged in December, after a downwardly revised +0.5% in November. After taking the monthly 0.3% increase in prices into account, real sales were down -0.3%. Since there was no October CPI report, the best we can say about November is that in real terms sales (blue in the graph below) were higher by 0.2% compared with September:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>名义上，12 月的零售销售与 11 月相比没有变化，11 月经过下调修正为 +0.5%。考虑到每月价格上涨 0.3%，真实销售下降了-0.3%。由于没有 10 月的 CPI 报告，我们对 11 月的最好说法是，按真实值计算（下图中的蓝色），与 9 月相比销售增长了 0.2%：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisz47g70WNV0nbgCgkS0XFM4AxzNi0a0SDeNXNo697otBAwWHfLf5LSYPPBgbkGPj2Yqx2LENW9IpcKfndcGVB62YsCX1bUd5h44dB8Figs3FKLJUBjq6UTEapJ8O40Z_CywXuUNd-Pd6l3amJMZGbghD8vI00kFqKM65LdLlmBulz4P_AjoUp9YygiBoV/s2160/IMG_2719.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisz47g70WNV0nbgCgkS0XFM4AxzNi0a0SDeNXNo697otBAwWHfLf5LSYPPBgbkGPj2Yqx2LENW9IpcKfndcGVB62YsCX1bUd5h44dB8Figs3FKLJUBjq6UTEapJ8O40Z_CywXuUNd-Pd6l3amJMZGbghD8vI00kFqKM65LdLlmBulz4P_AjoUp9YygiBoV/s2160/IMG_2719.jpeg"/></p>
<p>But so calculated, real retail sales in December were down -0.4% from their September peak. Further, if you believe, as I do, that the shutdown shelter kludge removed about 0.2% from consumer inflation during the September-November period, then the comparison becomes similarly worse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如此计算，12 月的真实零售销售较 9 月的峰值下降了-0.4%。此外，如果你相信我所相信的，即关闭避难所的临时措施在 9 月至 11 月期间减少了约 0.2% 的消费者通胀，那么比较结果就会变得更加糟糕。</p>
</div><p>Note that the above graph also shows the similar but more comprehensive measure of real personal spending on goods (gold), which did make a new high as of its most recent report for November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请注意，上图还显示了更全面的真实个人商品支出指标（黄金），截至其最近的 11 月报告，确实创下了新高。</p>
</div><p>Beyond that, real retail sales turned back negative YoY for the first time since September 2024. Going back 75 years (although I won’t bother with the long term historical graph), a decline in YoY real retail sales has almost always meant a recession (but both the obvious exception in 2023!):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除此之外，真实零售销售同比首次转为负值，自 2024 年 9 月以来首次出现。回顾过去 75 年（尽管我不会麻烦提供长期历史图表），同比真实零售销售的下降几乎总是意味着经济衰退（但 2023 年是明显的例外！）：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT7O0DdI7AIKQQSvFAal_sA8fXNH80LAc6GxAyaUsAyfvQcfgcVG2BSaaT3aAajReACQNiQOKJ0Fb3bSr5vDA6gw1DQlW7Ay347m1cN7q6r_smM2TH6kmRqpMlOp21rTdIxqTwXz9jWNCUaqABrsBTdL-94h86Ik0zXC3zR9YNwymhpyY7jKcc9KRzDaxd/s2160/IMG_2720.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT7O0DdI7AIKQQSvFAal_sA8fXNH80LAc6GxAyaUsAyfvQcfgcVG2BSaaT3aAajReACQNiQOKJ0Fb3bSr5vDA6gw1DQlW7Ay347m1cN7q6r_smM2TH6kmRqpMlOp21rTdIxqTwXz9jWNCUaqABrsBTdL-94h86Ik0zXC3zR9YNwymhpyY7jKcc9KRzDaxd/s2160/IMG_2720.jpeg"/></p>
<p>This is particularly salient because as I wrote above consumption leads employment. With the YoY comparison deteriorating in late 2025 and now negative, needless to say this bodes poorly for employment in the early months of this year. Here is the update of YoY real sales and real personal spending on goods (/2 for scale) together with employment (red):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这尤其重要，因为正如我上面所写，消费引领就业。随着 2025 年末同比比较恶化并现在转为负值，不用说，这对今年初的就业形势预示着不利。以下是同比真实销售和真实个人商品支出（/2 以便于比较）与就业（红色）的更新：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiodClONRDtYiiSi-tGNZgAjzJB8kVmSqe4aVkoBO-VtVApLxZInJ-0Msnlp6u4z8iQIOf_MhlF5P2KxUhHTy6pozzWZz8ChtPbsQFF6HXjqn-pkOSEqRHiPJrueL_SvNH6EQgwY33P1raGQC9sw_CfFLu3BUW3X5CjivfuZcJDVaTi02kHEXpQ6aguI-bP/s2153/IMG_2721.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiodClONRDtYiiSi-tGNZgAjzJB8kVmSqe4aVkoBO-VtVApLxZInJ-0Msnlp6u4z8iQIOf_MhlF5P2KxUhHTy6pozzWZz8ChtPbsQFF6HXjqn-pkOSEqRHiPJrueL_SvNH6EQgwY33P1raGQC9sw_CfFLu3BUW3X5CjivfuZcJDVaTi02kHEXpQ6aguI-bP/s2153/IMG_2721.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Last month I concluded that “This sharp deceleration in YoY growth in consumption forecast the slide in employment, and suggests that the jobs reports in the next several months will get no better.” This month’s report adds to the evidence. We’ll find out if that was true in January tomorrow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月我得出结论：“消费同比增长的急剧减速预示着就业的下滑，并暗示未来几个月的就业报告不会好转。” 本月的报告进一步证实了这一点。我们将在明天的 1 月报告中得知这一点是否属实。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Expect Shelter Inflation To Continue Abating In The Next Few CPI Reports</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计避难所通胀将在接下来的几份 CPI 报告中继续减缓</p>
</div><p>December JOLTS Report Shows Stabilizing At Near Stall Speed, Despite One Negative “Soft Data” Outlier</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月 JOLTS 报告显示，尽管有一个负面的 “软数据” 异常值，但仍在接近停滞速度的稳定状态</p>
</div><p>Jobless Claims Rise, But Still Mainly Lower YoY</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失业救济申请上升，但同比仍主要下降</p>
</div>

Real Retail Sales Turn Down Monthly And YoY In December, Boding Poorly For Employment

- 12 月真实零售销售未变，名义销售与前月相比持平。  
- 该数据对经济趋势和就业形势有重要影响。  
- 消费同比首次转为负值，预示就业将面临挑战。

12 月的实际零售销售环比和同比均出现下降，这对就业形势不利