<p>如果你还没有购买任何黄金，或者想要购买更多，你可能会被诱惑去抄底。最近几天，零售投资者似乎正是这样做的。</p>
<p>黄金在二月初从历史高点暴跌了两位数，这是四十年来最陡峭的下跌。此后，黄金价格已回升至每盎司 5,054 美元，但仍低于今年的高点。你应该抄底吗？</p>
<p>有些人可能认为这个问题不言而喻。毕竟，即使价格波动剧烈，黄金今年的涨幅已超过 16%。去年，它的回报率为 65%，表现优于所有其他资产。</p>
<p>更重要的是，策略师们对黄金依然看涨；最近的价格飙升只会推高价格预测。例如，摩根大通已将其对黄金的价格预期提高至到 2026 年底每盎司 6,300 美元；德意志银行则预测为 6,000 美元。道富表示它 “倾向于看涨”，并补充说 “仅仅因为一种资产被超买，并不意味着它被过度拥有”。</p>
<p>需求因素依然存在：地缘政治担忧仍在加剧；主权债务水平和财政支出不太可能下降。中央银行的需求仍未满足；预计今年将购买约 800 吨黄金供应。而美元贬值的主题尚未完全展开。美元走弱对黄金是有利的。</p>
<p>但与其屈服于错失良机的恐惧，不如问自己一些问题。黄金应该是一个稳定的投资组合多元化工具。当其波动性超过股票时，它能提供多少对冲？在如此极端的波动下，黄金仍然是避风港吗？</p>
<p>晨星投资组合策略师艾米·阿诺特为那些想要购买的人提供了一些有用的历史分析。她写道，黄金价格往往会回归均值。也就是说，当黄金在通胀调整后的水平上交易时，价格往往会在随后的时期内下跌。目前的通胀调整后黄金价格约为历史平均水平的三倍。</p>
<p>她还指出，黄金经历过长期的繁荣与萧条；下跌期可能很漫长。1987 年底开始的一个价格下跌阶段就是一个例子；黄金持续下跌，直到 2005 年 11 月才恢复平衡。在 1982 年至 2000 年的股票长期牛市中，美国股票年均回报接近 17%。在此期间，黄金平均每年下跌近 2%。</p>
<p>当然，也有人认为这次情况不同。由于黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的存在，今天的投资参与度远高于以往，而 ETF 直到 2003 年左右才出现。但 ETF 是把双刃剑。虽然它们提供了便利和流动性，但也可能加剧波动。过去几天的价格飙升和下跌被归咎于中国的投机资金。</p>
<p>可以肯定的是，黄金在投资组合中占有一席之地；其与股票的长期相关性接近于零，并且在危机中为负。大多数投资组合对黄金的配置仍然不足。这一点，加上中央银行的购买，表明价格可能进一步上涨。但零售投资者需要对黄金采取投资组合的视角，避免使用杠杆。在如此高的价格下，谨慎是必要的。</p>

<p>随着黄金价格经历显著波动，建议投资者在考虑抄底时保持谨慎。在 2 月份经历了急剧下跌后，黄金价格已反弹至每盎司 5,054 美元，但仍低于年度高点。分析师对黄金持乐观态度，预测到 2026 年价格可能达到 6,000 至 6,300 美元。然而，关于黄金相较于股票的波动性以及历史价格趋势的担忧表明，尽管黄金可以实现投资组合的多样化，投资者仍应避免追逐价格，并考虑采取谨慎的策略</p>

<p>IF YOU haven’t bought any gold yet or are looking to buy more, you may be tempted to buy the dip. In recent days, it seems retail investors have done just that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你还没有购买任何黄金，或者想要购买更多，你可能会被诱惑去抄底。最近几天，零售投资者似乎正是这样做的。</p>
</div><p>Gold plunged by double digits in early February from its record high, the steepest drop in four decades. Gold has since clawed its way back to US$5,054 per ounce, but is still off the year’s high. Should you buy the dip?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金在二月初从历史高点暴跌了两位数，这是四十年来最陡峭的下跌。此后，黄金价格已回升至每盎司 5,054 美元，但仍低于今年的高点。你应该抄底吗？</p>
</div><p>Some may regard the question as a no-brainer. After all, even with the wild price swings, gold has appreciated by more than 16 per cent this year. Last year it outperformed all other assets with a return of 65 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有些人可能认为这个问题不言而喻。毕竟，即使价格波动剧烈，黄金今年的涨幅已超过 16%。去年，它的回报率为 65%，表现优于所有其他资产。</p>
</div><p>What’s more, strategists remain bullish on the metal; recent price surges have only pushed price forecasts higher. JPMorgan Chase, for instance, has raised its price expectation for gold to US$6,300 an ounce by end-2026; Deutsche Bank is calling for US$6,000. State Street says it “leans bullish”, adding that “just because an asset is overbought does not mean it is over-owned”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，策略师们对黄金依然看涨；最近的价格飙升只会推高价格预测。例如，摩根大通已将其对黄金的价格预期提高至到 2026 年底每盎司 6,300 美元；德意志银行则预测为 6,000 美元。道富表示它 “倾向于看涨”，并补充说 “仅仅因为一种资产被超买，并不意味着它被过度拥有”。</p>
</div><p>Demand factors remain intact: Geopolitical concerns are still on the boil; sovereign debt levels and fiscal spending are unlikely to decline. Central bank appetite is unsated; they are expected to snap up around 800 tonnes of gold supply this year. And the dollar-debasement theme has yet to run its full course. A weaker US dollar is supportive of gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求因素依然存在：地缘政治担忧仍在加剧；主权债务水平和财政支出不太可能下降。中央银行的需求仍未满足；预计今年将购买约 800 吨黄金供应。而美元贬值的主题尚未完全展开。美元走弱对黄金是有利的。</p>
</div><p>But rather than succumb to the fear of missing out, it helps to ask some questions. Gold is supposed to be a stable portfolio diversifier. How much of a hedge can it be when its volatility exceeds that of stocks? With such extreme volatility, is gold still a safe haven?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但与其屈服于错失良机的恐惧，不如问自己一些问题。黄金应该是一个稳定的投资组合多元化工具。当其波动性超过股票时，它能提供多少对冲？在如此极端的波动下，黄金仍然是避风港吗？</p>
</div><p>Morningstar portfolio strategist Amy Arnott has some helpful historical analyses for those looking to buy. Gold price, she wrote, tends to revert to the mean. That is, when gold is trading at an elevated level in inflation-adjusted terms, prices have tended to fall in subsequent periods. The current inflation-adjusted gold price is around three times the historical average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>晨星投资组合策略师艾米·阿诺特为那些想要购买的人提供了一些有用的历史分析。她写道，黄金价格往往会回归均值。也就是说，当黄金在通胀调整后的水平上交易时，价格往往会在随后的时期内下跌。目前的通胀调整后黄金价格约为历史平均水平的三倍。</p>
</div><p>Gold, she also pointed out, has gone through extended periods of boom and bust; the down periods can be long. One such episode of price decline began at end-1987; gold continued to fall and didn’t break even until some 18 years later in November 2005. During a secular bull market in stocks from 1982 to 2000, US stocks returned nearly 17 per cent per year. In that period, gold declined by an average of nearly 2 per cent a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她还指出，黄金经历过长期的繁荣与萧条；下跌期可能很漫长。1987 年底开始的一个价格下跌阶段就是一个例子；黄金持续下跌，直到 2005 年 11 月才恢复平衡。在 1982 年至 2000 年的股票长期牛市中，美国股票年均回报接近 17%。在此期间，黄金平均每年下跌近 2%。</p>
</div><p>Of course, there is the view that this time is different. Investment participation today is far higher, thanks to gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which didn’t exist until around 2003. But ETFs are a double-edged sword. While they enable access and liquidity, they can also exacerbate volatility. The price surge and falls of the past few days have been blamed on Chinese speculative monies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，也有人认为这次情况不同。由于黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的存在，今天的投资参与度远高于以往，而 ETF 直到 2003 年左右才出现。但 ETF 是把双刃剑。虽然它们提供了便利和流动性，但也可能加剧波动。过去几天的价格飙升和下跌被归咎于中国的投机资金。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, gold has a place in portfolios; its correlation with stocks over long periods is close to zero and is negative in crises. Most portfolios remain under-allocated to gold. This, along with central bank buying, suggests prices could rise further. But rather than chase prices, retail investors need to take a portfolio view of gold and avoid leverage. With such elevated prices, caution is warranted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，黄金在投资组合中占有一席之地；其与股票的长期相关性接近于零，并且在危机中为负。大多数投资组合对黄金的配置仍然不足。这一点，加上中央银行的购买，表明价格可能进一步上涨。但零售投资者需要对黄金采取投资组合的视角，避免使用杠杆。在如此高的价格下，谨慎是必要的。</p>
</div>

Buy gold on dips? With sky-high volatility, caution is warranted

Businesstimes News

中金黄金

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

黄金 ETF - SPDR

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

Kinross Gold

紫金矿业

纽蒙特矿业

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

初级黄金矿股 ETF

山东黄金

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

黄金 ETF - iShares

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

在价格下跌时买入黄金？由于波动性极高，投资者需要保持谨慎