<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>印尼已将 PT Weda Bay Nickel 的 2026 年生产配额削减 71%，至 1200 万吨，这是全国镍矿配额整体减少 30% 的一部分，旨在控制全球供应。</li>
<li>周四，澳大利亚证券交易所的镍股上涨，Centaurus Metals 上涨 15.4%，Nickel Industries 上涨 2.8%，而镍价自 12 月中旬以来因供应限制的猜测上涨了 25%。</li>
<li>尽管近期价格上涨和印尼配额收紧，镍仍面临来自制造商转向非镍电池化学品和中国钢铁消费下降的结构性需求阻力。</li>
</ul>
<p>周四，镍股大幅上涨，此前印尼政府命令全球最大的镍矿 PT Weda Bay Nickel 大幅减少今年的生产。</p>
<p>根据彭博社的报道，该矿将在 2026 年获得 1200 万吨的矿石生产配额，比 2025 年的 4200 万吨减少 71%。</p>
<p>印尼通过年度许可证（RKAB）管理矿业产出，这些许可证可以在年中进行调整。该国计划今年发放总镍矿生产配额为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿吨，比 2025 年的 3.79 亿吨目标减少 30%。</p>
<p>这标志着当局在经历了两年的低迷后，为了恢复价格而采取的又一激进举措，这一低迷导致澳大利亚和新喀里多尼亚的竞争对手纷纷关闭。</p>
<p>此次减产是印尼控制全球镍供应的更广泛战略的一部分，此前其产量激增至全球生产的约 65%。这一供应洪流引发了持续的价格下跌，迫使像 BHP 的 Nickel West 这样的高成本运营进入保养和维护状态。</p>
<p>自 12 月中旬以来，镍价因对供应限制和地缘政治紧张局势的猜测上涨了超过 25%。在 1 月份，麦格理集团将其 2026 年镍价预测上调 18%，至每吨 17,750 美元，原因是由于印尼配额收紧，预计盈余大幅下降。</p>
<p>尽管近期有所上涨，但过去两年价格基本持平，自 2023 年初以来仍下降了 40%。</p>
<p>镍价走势图（来源：TradingView）</p>
<p>澳大利亚证券交易所镍股上涨</p>
<p>当地镍股普遍高开，像 Nickel Industries 这样的市值较大的公司上涨 2.7%，而 Centaurus 等开发类股票则上涨至自 2023 年 10 月以来的最高水平。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>涨幅</th>
<th>价格</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>CTM</td>
<td>Centaurus Metals</td>
<td>15.38%</td>
<td>$0.68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EGR</td>
<td>Ecograf</td>
<td>15.28%</td>
<td>$0.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GBR</td>
<td>Great Boulder Resources</td>
<td>15.00%</td>
<td>$0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PNM</td>
<td>Pacific Nickel Mines</td>
<td>14.29%</td>
<td>$0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NC1</td>
<td>Nico Resources</td>
<td>12.00%</td>
<td>$0.28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NIC</td>
<td>Nickel Industries</td>
<td>2.77%</td>
<td>$1.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>截至 2026 年 2 月 12 日（星期四）上午 11:30 AEDT 的澳大利亚证券交易所镍股价格表现（来源：Market Index）</p>
<p>印尼正在对热煤采取类似的供应管理策略。作为全球最大的煤炭出口国，矿业配额预计将比去年减少近 25%。印尼煤矿协会警告称，削减可能迫使一些运营关闭，并使海外买家争相寻找替代供应。</p>
<p>尽管供应受到限制，镍在需求方面仍面临阻力。这种金属用于不锈钢和电动车电池，但由于一些制造商转向非镍化学品，电池需求令人失望。中国的钢铁需求也正在经历结构性下降，预计在 2026 年将下降 1%，继 2025 年下降 5.4% 之后。</p>

<p>印度尼西亚将 PT Weda Bay Nickel 的 2026 年生产配额削减 71%，至 1200 万吨，这导致澳大利亚证券交易所的镍股上涨。由于供应限制，自 12 月中旬以来，镍价已上涨 25%。尽管如此，镍的需求面临挑战，因为制造商正在转向非镍电池化学品，同时中国的钢铁消费也在下降。印度尼西亚政府旨在控制全球镍供应，今年将国家配额减少 30%。像 Centaurus Metals 和 Nickel Industries 这样的镍股在这一消息发布后大幅上涨</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Indonesia has cut the 2026 production quota at PT Weda Bay Nickel by 71% to 12 million tonnes, part of a broader 30% reduction in national nickel ore quotas aimed at controlling global supply.</li>
<li>ASX nickel stocks rallied on Thursday with Centaurus Metals up 15.4% and Nickel Industries up 2.8%, while nickel prices have gained 25% since mid-December on supply constraint speculation.</li>
<li>Despite recent price gains and tighter Indonesian quotas, nickel faces structural demand headwinds from manufacturers switching to non-nickel battery chemistries and declining Chinese steel consumption.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>印尼已将 PT Weda Bay Nickel 的 2026 年生产配额削减 71%，至 1200 万吨，这是全国镍矿配额整体减少 30% 的一部分，旨在控制全球供应。</li>
<li>周四，澳大利亚证券交易所的镍股上涨，Centaurus Metals 上涨 15.4%，Nickel Industries 上涨 2.8%，而镍价自 12 月中旬以来因供应限制的猜测上涨了 25%。</li>
<li>尽管近期价格上涨和印尼配额收紧，镍仍面临来自制造商转向非镍电池化学品和中国钢铁消费下降的结构性需求阻力。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Nickel stocks are trading sharply higher on Thursday after the Indonesian government ordered the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, to significantly reduce production this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，镍股大幅上涨，此前印尼政府命令全球最大的镍矿 PT Weda Bay Nickel 大幅减少今年的生产。</p>
</div><p>The mine will receive a 12 million tonne ore production quota for 2026, down 71% from 42 million tonnes in 2025, according to Bloomberg.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据彭博社的报道，该矿将在 2026 年获得 1200 万吨的矿石生产配额，比 2025 年的 4200 万吨减少 71%。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia manages miner output through annual permits known as RKABs, which can be adjusted at the mid-year mark. The country plans to issue total nickel ore production quotas of 260-270 million tonnes this year, down 30% from the 2025 target of 379 million tonnes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼通过年度许可证（RKAB）管理矿业产出，这些许可证可以在年中进行调整。该国计划今年发放总镍矿生产配额为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿吨，比 2025 年的 3.79 亿吨目标减少 30%。</p>
</div><p>This marks another aggressive move by authorities to revive prices after a two-year slump that shuttered competitors across Australia and New Caledonia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这标志着当局在经历了两年的低迷后，为了恢复价格而采取的又一激进举措，这一低迷导致澳大利亚和新喀里多尼亚的竞争对手纷纷关闭。</p>
</div><p>The production cut is part of Indonesia's broader strategy to control global nickel supply after its output surged to approximately 65% of world production. This flood of supply triggered a prolonged price decline that forced higher-cost operations like BHP's Nickel West into care and maintenance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次减产是印尼控制全球镍供应的更广泛战略的一部分，此前其产量激增至全球生产的约 65%。这一供应洪流引发了持续的价格下跌，迫使像 BHP 的 Nickel West 这样的高成本运营进入保养和维护状态。</p>
</div><p>Nickel prices have rallied more than 25% since mid-December on speculation about supply constraints and geopolitical tensions. In January, Macquarie Group lifted its 2026 nickel price forecast by 18% to US$17,750 per tonne, citing a sharp drop in the expected surplus due to tighter Indonesian quotas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 12 月中旬以来，镍价因对供应限制和地缘政治紧张局势的猜测上涨了超过 25%。在 1 月份，麦格理集团将其 2026 年镍价预测上调 18%，至每吨 17,750 美元，原因是由于印尼配额收紧，预计盈余大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>Despite the recent gains, prices remain largely flat over the past two years and are still down 40% since early 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管近期有所上涨，但过去两年价格基本持平，自 2023 年初以来仍下降了 40%。</p>
</div><p>Nickel price chart (Source: TradingView)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>镍价走势图（来源：TradingView）</p>
</div><p>ASX nickel stocks rally</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳大利亚证券交易所镍股上涨</p>
</div><p>Local nickel stocks opened broadly higher, with larger cap names like Nickel Industries up 2.7% and development plays like Centaurus rallying to the highest level since October 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当地镍股普遍高开，像 Nickel Industries 这样的市值较大的公司上涨 2.7%，而 Centaurus 等开发类股票则上涨至自 2023 年 10 月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Ticker</th>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Chg</th>
<th>Price</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>CTM</td>
<td>Centaurus Metals</td>
<td>15.38%</td>
<td>$0.68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EGR</td>
<td>Ecograf</td>
<td>15.28%</td>
<td>$0.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GBR</td>
<td>Great Boulder Resources</td>
<td>15.00%</td>
<td>$0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PNM</td>
<td>Pacific Nickel Mines</td>
<td>14.29%</td>
<td>$0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NC1</td>
<td>Nico Resources</td>
<td>12.00%</td>
<td>$0.28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NIC</td>
<td>Nickel Industries</td>
<td>2.77%</td>
<td>$1.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>涨幅</th>
<th>价格</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>CTM</td>
<td>Centaurus Metals</td>
<td>15.38%</td>
<td>$0.68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EGR</td>
<td>Ecograf</td>
<td>15.28%</td>
<td>$0.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GBR</td>
<td>Great Boulder Resources</td>
<td>15.00%</td>
<td>$0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PNM</td>
<td>Pacific Nickel Mines</td>
<td>14.29%</td>
<td>$0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NC1</td>
<td>Nico Resources</td>
<td>12.00%</td>
<td>$0.28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NIC</td>
<td>Nickel Industries</td>
<td>2.77%</td>
<td>$1.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>ASX-listed nickel share price performance as at 11:30 am AEDT on Thursday, 12 February 2026 (Source: Market Index)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2026 年 2 月 12 日（星期四）上午 11:30 AEDT 的澳大利亚证券交易所镍股价格表现（来源：Market Index）</p>
</div><p>Indonesia is applying similar supply management tactics to thermal coal. Mining quotas in the world's largest coal exporter are set to fall nearly 25% from last year. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association warned the cuts could force some operations to close and leave overseas buyers scrambling for alternative supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼正在对热煤采取类似的供应管理策略。作为全球最大的煤炭出口国，矿业配额预计将比去年减少近 25%。印尼煤矿协会警告称，削减可能迫使一些运营关闭，并使海外买家争相寻找替代供应。</p>
</div><p>Despite the supply restrictions, nickel faces headwinds on the demand side. The metal is used in both stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries, but battery demand has disappointed as some manufacturers switch to non-nickel chemistries. China's steel demand is also undergoing a structural decline, projected to fall 1% in 2026, following a 5.4% decline in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管供应受到限制，镍在需求方面仍面临阻力。这种金属用于不锈钢和电动车电池，但由于一些制造商转向非镍化学品，电池需求令人失望。中国的钢铁需求也正在经历结构性下降，预计在 2026 年将下降 1%，继 2025 年下降 5.4% 之后。</p>
</div>

由于印度尼西亚削减了巨型 Weda Bay 矿的产量，ASX 镍股票上涨