<p>作者：Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<p>研究人员表示：“前景看起来确实很严峻。”</p>
<p>国会预算办公室最新的预测显示，美国政府的赤字情况并不乐观。</p>
<p>根据国会预算办公室最新的预测，未来 10 年美国预算赤字将不断扩大，伴随而来的是不断上升的利息成本，这将占据政府支出的更大份额。</p>
<p>这导致了一个环境，在这个环境中，消费者和债券市场参与者的利率已经高于应有水平——而且未来可能会变得更糟。</p>
<p>根据周三发布的 CBO 报告，到 2036 年，赤字预计将飙升至 3.1 万亿美元，而 2026 财年的赤字为 1.9 万亿美元，截止日期为 9 月 30 日。每当服务支出的超过税收收入，导致赤字扩大时，政府必须通过美国财政部的债券、票据和国库券的销售向公众借款。国债的供应越大，吸引投资者的收益率可能需要越高，这取决于这些到期债务的组成。</p>
<p>芝加哥 Zacks 投资管理公司的高级客户投资组合经理 Brian Mulberry 表示：“债券市场一直在向我们表明，它对财政前景持续感到担忧。” 他补充道：“最大的担忧之一似乎是不断扩大的赤字，这似乎以指数级的速度在增长。”</p>
<p>根据 Mulberry 的说法，关于美国财政前景的担忧已经转化为比正常情况下更高的利率和收益率，即使在 CBO 的预测发布之前。在周四的电话采访中，他估计，联邦储备的主要利率目标，目前在 3.5% 到 3.75% 之间，如果对美国在政府支出和赤字以及通货膨胀方面取得进展的能力有更大的信心，可能会降低约 100 个基点。他表示，各类国债的收益率也会降低。</p>
<p>10 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y——影响从抵押贷款和汽车贷款到公司债券和资本投资的借款成本——在周四的交易中收于 4.1%，并且由于特朗普政府和财政部依赖更多短期国库券来管理政府融资成本，其收益率基本保持稳定。然而，在 Mulberry 看来，10 年期收益率应该更接近 3.5% 到 3.75%。</p>
<p>CBO 的一张图表显示，到 2036 年，联邦预算赤字将达到 3.1 万亿美元，占国内生产总值的 6.7%，而 2026 财年的赤字为 1.9 万亿美元，占 GDP 的 5.8%。这张图表清楚地显示了这一短缺中有多少是由不断上升的利息成本构成的。图表中浅紫色区域反映了净利息支出，随着时间的推移，这部分支出将占据更多的赤字。</p>
<p>这张图表反映了总赤字占 GDP 的百分比，以及利息成本所占的比例。</p>
<p>纽约法兴银行研究主管 Subadra Rajappa 表示：“从整体来看，前景确实看起来很严峻。但债券市场似乎更关注在短期和中期内融资这笔债务的能力。” 她补充道，市场对美国及其债务和赤字的轨迹 “比对其他国家要宽容得多”。</p>
<p>不断上升的政府赤字和利息成本威胁着特朗普总统在住房和日常生活可负担性问题上的努力。这是因为恶化的赤字情况影响了许多美国人以及债券市场的参与者。</p>
<p>首先，借款成本的上升意味着在政府服务、道路和桥梁、国防、研究和医疗保险等方面的支出减少。同时，财政部需要不断增加流通中的美国政府债务供应。如果潜在买家对未来的销售感到犹豫，这将增加收益率大幅飙升的风险，从而可能扰动更广泛的金融市场。</p>
<p>鉴于财政部依赖发行更多短期国库券，市场参与者一直在期待该机构最终会更多地转向带息的票据销售。然而，本月早些时候，这些预期被打破，因为财政部维持了其指导方针，表示未来几季度票据和债券的拍卖规模将保持不变。</p>
<p>在 CBO 预测发布后的周四，债券市场在股票市场情绪恶化的情况下反弹。由于人工智能带来的不确定性，美国股票 DJIA SPX COMP 大幅下跌。大多数国债收益率也下降，5 年期票据到 30 年期债券 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 的利率下降居首。</p>
<p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>02-12-26 1613ET</p>

美国长期公司债 - Vanguard

1-3年 美国国债 ETF - iShares

鹏扬中债-30年期国债ETF

<p>国会预算办公室预测，到 2036 年，美国预算赤字将飙升至 3.1 万亿美元，这引发了对利息成本上升及其对政府支出的影响的担忧。这种情况预计将导致国债收益率上升，因为政府将借入更多资金。分析师警告称，债券市场已经对这些财政挑战做出了反应，目前的收益率高于应有水平。赤字的走势可能会妨碍政府服务和经济稳定，影响消费者和投资者</p>

<p>By Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Vivien Lou Chen</p>
</div><p>'The trajectory definitely looks dire,' researcher says of the U.S. fiscal outlook</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>研究人员表示：“前景看起来确实很严峻。”</p>
</div><p>The Congressional Budget Office's latest forecasts are out on the U.S. government's deficit situation - and they don't look very good.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国会预算办公室最新的预测显示，美国政府的赤字情况并不乐观。</p>
</div><p>An ever-widening U.S. budget deficit over the next 10 years will be accompanied by ever-rising interest costs that eat up a greater share of government spending, according to the Congressional Budget Office's latest forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国会预算办公室最新的预测，未来 10 年美国预算赤字将不断扩大，伴随而来的是不断上升的利息成本，这将占据政府支出的更大份额。</p>
</div><p>This is producing an environment in which interest rates for consumers and bond-market participants are already higher than they ought to be - and it could keep looking worse from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这导致了一个环境，在这个环境中，消费者和债券市场参与者的利率已经高于应有水平——而且未来可能会变得更糟。</p>
</div><p>By 2036, the deficit is expected to soar to $3.1 trillion, from $1.9 trillion in the 2026 fiscal year that ends on Sept. 30, according to a CBO report released on Wednesday. Whenever expenditures on services exceed tax revenue to produce a wider deficit, the government must borrow from the public via the U.S. Treasury Department's sales of bonds, bills and notes. The greater the supply of Treasurys, the higher that their yields might need to be to attract investors, depending on the composition of those maturities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据周三发布的 CBO 报告，到 2036 年，赤字预计将飙升至 3.1 万亿美元，而 2026 财年的赤字为 1.9 万亿美元，截止日期为 9 月 30 日。每当服务支出的超过税收收入，导致赤字扩大时，政府必须通过美国财政部的债券、票据和国库券的销售向公众借款。国债的供应越大，吸引投资者的收益率可能需要越高，这取决于这些到期债务的组成。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The bond market has been showing us that it is consistently concerned&#34; about the fiscal outlook, said Brian Mulberry, a senior client portfolio manager for Chicago-based Zacks Investment Management. &#34;One of the biggest concerns seems to be around a growing deficit that seems to be moving at an exponential pace.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芝加哥 Zacks 投资管理公司的高级客户投资组合经理 Brian Mulberry 表示：“债券市场一直在向我们表明，它对财政前景持续感到担忧。” 他补充道：“最大的担忧之一似乎是不断扩大的赤字，这似乎以指数级的速度在增长。”</p>
</div><p>Already, concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook have translated into higher interest rates and yields than would otherwise be the case, even before the CBO's forecasts came out, according to Mulberry. In a phone interview on Thursday, he estimated that the Federal Reserve's main interest-rate target, now between 3.5% to 3.75%, would probably be lower by about 100 basis points on greater confidence about the U.S.'s ability to make progress on government spending and its deficit, as well as inflation. Yields across the spectrum of Treasurys also would be lower, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Mulberry 的说法，关于美国财政前景的担忧已经转化为比正常情况下更高的利率和收益率，即使在 CBO 的预测发布之前。在周四的电话采访中，他估计，联邦储备的主要利率目标，目前在 3.5% 到 3.75% 之间，如果对美国在政府支出和赤字以及通货膨胀方面取得进展的能力有更大的信心，可能会降低约 100 个基点。他表示，各类国债的收益率也会降低。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y - which influences borrowing costs for everything from mortgages and auto loans to corporate bonds and capital investments - finished Thursday's session at 4.1%, and has remained largely contained because of efforts by the Trump administration and Treasury Department to rely more on the issuance of short-term T-bills to manage government financing costs. In Mulberry's mind, though, the 10-year yield ought to be closer to 3.5% to 3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y——影响从抵押贷款和汽车贷款到公司债券和资本投资的借款成本——在周四的交易中收于 4.1%，并且由于特朗普政府和财政部依赖更多短期国库券来管理政府融资成本，其收益率基本保持稳定。然而，在 Mulberry 看来，10 年期收益率应该更接近 3.5% 到 3.75%。</p>
</div><p>A chart from the CBO that reflects the federal budget deficit's path toward $3.1 trillion, or 6.7% of gross domestic product, by 2036 versus $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP, in fiscal 2026 reveals just how much of this shortfall is made up of rising interest costs. Lightly shaded purple areas of this chart, shown below, reflect net interest outlays, which will eventually make up more of the deficit as time goes on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CBO 的一张图表显示，到 2036 年，联邦预算赤字将达到 3.1 万亿美元，占国内生产总值的 6.7%，而 2026 财年的赤字为 1.9 万亿美元，占 GDP 的 5.8%。这张图表清楚地显示了这一短缺中有多少是由不断上升的利息成本构成的。图表中浅紫色区域反映了净利息支出，随着时间的推移，这部分支出将占据更多的赤字。</p>
</div><p>This chart reflects total deficits as a percentage of GDP, as well as the amount being taken up by interest costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这张图表反映了总赤字占 GDP 的百分比，以及利息成本所占的比例。</p>
</div><p>&#34;In the grand scheme of things, the trajectory definitely looks dire,&#34; said Subadra Rajappa, head of research at Société Générale in New York. &#34;But the bond market seems to be focused on the ability to finance this debt over the near and medium term,&#34; and the market has been &#34;much more forgiving of the U.S. and its trajectory of debt and deficits&#34; than it would be with another country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约法兴银行研究主管 Subadra Rajappa 表示：“从整体来看，前景确实看起来很严峻。但债券市场似乎更关注在短期和中期内融资这笔债务的能力。” 她补充道，市场对美国及其债务和赤字的轨迹 “比对其他国家要宽容得多”。</p>
</div><p>Rising government deficits and interest costs threaten to overshadow President Donald Trump's efforts to focus on the issue of affordability in housing and daily living for most Americans. That's because a worsening deficit situation impacts many Americans as well as participants in the bond market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不断上升的政府赤字和利息成本威胁着特朗普总统在住房和日常生活可负担性问题上的努力。这是因为恶化的赤字情况影响了许多美国人以及债券市场的参与者。</p>
</div><p>For one thing, rising borrowing costs means there's less to spend on things such as government services, roads and bridges, defense, research and Medicare. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department will need to keep increasing the supply of U.S. government debt in circulation. If potential buyers balk at future sales, this would raise the risk of an unwieldy spike in yields that might spook the broader financial market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，借款成本的上升意味着在政府服务、道路和桥梁、国防、研究和医疗保险等方面的支出减少。同时，财政部需要不断增加流通中的美国政府债务供应。如果潜在买家对未来的销售感到犹豫，这将增加收益率大幅飙升的风险，从而可能扰动更广泛的金融市场。</p>
</div><p>Given the Treasury Department's reliance on issuing more short-term T-bills, market participants have been expecting the agency to eventually shift more in the direction of interest-bearing coupon sales. Earlier this month, however, those expectations were dashed after the Treasury left in place its guidance indicating that future auction sizes on notes and bonds would be unchanged &#34;for at least the next several quarters.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于财政部依赖发行更多短期国库券，市场参与者一直在期待该机构最终会更多地转向带息的票据销售。然而，本月早些时候，这些预期被打破，因为财政部维持了其指导方针，表示未来几季度票据和债券的拍卖规模将保持不变。</p>
</div><p>On Thursday, a day after the release of the CBO's forecasts, the bond market rallied on a worsening mood in stocks. U.S. stocks DJIA SPX COMP closed sharply lower on uncertainty created by disruptions from artificial intelligence. Most Treasury yields also fell, led by declines in rates on 5-year notes through the 30-year bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 CBO 预测发布后的周四，债券市场在股票市场情绪恶化的情况下反弹。由于人工智能带来的不确定性，美国股票 DJIA SPX COMP 大幅下跌。大多数国债收益率也下降，5 年期票据到 30 年期债券 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 的利率下降居首。</p>
</div><p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>02-12-26 1613ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-12-26 1613ET</p>
</div>

What's at stake for bond investors if the U.S. deficit soars to $3.1 trillion over the next decade

Dow Jones

美国债券综合指数 ETF - iShares

美国短期国债指数 ETF - iShares

增强型短期到期主动型 ETF - PIMCO

20 年期以上美国国债 ETF - iShares

美国中期公司债 - Vanguard

美债市场指数 ETF - Vanguard

5-10 年公司债券 ETF - Charles Schwab

平安中债-0-3年国开行债券ETF

组合中期公司债券 ETF - SPDR

美国短期公司债 - Vanguard

国泰上证5年期国债ETF

美国中期国债 ETF - iShares

短期公司债券 ETF - iShares

7-10 年美国国债 ETF - iShares

富国中债7-10年政策性金融债ETF

美国投资级公司债 - iShares

0-3 月国库券债券 ETF - iShares

如果美国赤字在未来十年内飙升至 3.1 万亿美元，债券投资者将面临哪些风险