<p>（第一财经）2 月 13 日——包括瑞银证券和摩根士丹利在内的主要国际投资机构对中国化工市场表示乐观，跨国石化公司将中国视为其发展的重要市场。</p>
<p>瑞银证券在其最新研究报告中上调了对中国化工行业的展望，认为该行业将在今年至 2028 年进入新的上升周期，得益于多重积极因素，利润回升和企业估值提升。</p>
<p>与此同时，摩根士丹利预计将出现 “长尾复苏”，而不是急剧反弹，尽管在基本面变化上与瑞银证券达成了类似的看法。</p>
<p>华泰证券表示，基础化学品正处于产能和库存周期的双重拐点，预计由于国内外需求有望在今年恢复，它们将经历上升趋势。</p>
<p>中国银河证券预测，自 2024 年以来，化工行业的资本支出已下降，随着反内卷浪潮和过剩海外产能的加速淘汰，供应端预计将收缩。第十五个五年规划草案已为未来五年定下基调，强调扩大内需，建立供需双底。</p>
<p>分析师指出，中国七大沿海石化基地正在逐步获得某些产品的全球定价权，利用其在一体化、规模、低能耗和技术迭代方面的优势，将产能优势转化为出口竞争力，从而影响欧洲、日本和韩国的老旧产能。</p>
<p>国海证券在最近的研究报告中表示，反内卷的努力可能促使对中国化工行业的重新估值，相关措施预计将显著减缓全球范围内的产能扩张。中国化工行业拥有丰富的净经营现金流，一旦扩张放缓，潜在的股息收益率将大幅增加。</p>
<p>跨国公司的承诺</p>
<p>全球化工巨头已表达对中国市场的承诺，增加本地投资，并重申中国在其国际发展战略中的重要性。</p>
<p>例如，巴斯夫的代表告诉第一财经，德国公司在中国南方广东省湛江的综合性工厂最近开始运营。该工厂总投资 100 亿欧元（119 亿美元），已投入运营三条年产 40 万吨的丁基丙烯酸酯装置、一条年产 100 万吨的乙烯裂解装置和一条年产 50 万吨的聚乙烯装置。</p>
<p>新产能将增强巴斯夫的供应能力，为粘合剂、涂料和特种解决方案应用提供稳定的产品。</p>
<p>巴斯夫旗下的噪声、振动和冲击减震组件制造商 Cellasto 去年 4 月宣布，将投资约 6000 万欧元（7120 万美元）在上海建设第二家工厂，计划将其生产能力扩大近 70%，以抓住中国快速增长的电动车市场。预计明年开始运营。</p>
<p>“如果你想成为一家化工增长公司，你必须在中国增长，” 巴斯夫首席执行官马库斯·卡米特在去年 11 月柏林的一次讨论中对多家媒体表示，《巴伦周刊》报道。“中国无疑是全球最大的化工市场，也是世界上最强大的制造国，因此如果中国增长，市场就会增长。”</p>
<p>另一家德国化工巨头瓦克化学已将中国指定为其全球第二大业务基地。同时，科思创、埃克森美孚和索尔维都在扩大其在中国的特种化学品生产能力，瞄准高端应用。</p>
<p>这些并非冲动决策，跨国公司在进行严格的尽职调查时，会评估市场风险、竞争动态和回报预期，分析师表示。他们持续的投资表明，他们已识别出机会，如需求增长、供应链整合和进入新兴工业应用。</p>
<p>中国化工行业的结构性变化</p>
<p>投资银行和分析机构已识别出三项根本性变化正在重塑中国化工行业。</p>
<p>第一是全球产能合理化加速。埃克森美孚上个月表示，将关闭其在苏格兰年产 80 万吨的乙烯裂解厂，而日本的出光兴产和三井化学在 12 月宣布将停用其在千叶的年产 37 万吨的乙烯设施。</p>
<p>中国也在逐步淘汰超过 1200 万吨的化工生产能力，但这是通过收紧审批、差异化电价和调整出口退税等政策引导的调整，而非其他地方因危机驱动的关闭。</p>
<p>第二个变化是需求结构的转变。新能、电子和先进设备领域的专业化和定制化材料正成为中国化工行业明确的增长驱动力。</p>
<p>在新能源领域，对固态电池电解质、氢燃料电池材料和光伏用聚烯烃弹性体薄膜的需求激增。在电子领域，光刻胶、化学机械抛光浆料和超高纯试剂的替代正在加速。</p>
<p>其他新兴领域，如低空经济和类人机器人，正在为特种工程塑料、高性能纤维和轻量化复合材料开辟全新的应用场景。</p>
<p>第三个变化是研究强度的显著上升。万华化学集团每年平均投资 40 亿元人民币（约合 5.791 亿美元），占其年收入的 4% 以上，这与海外主要企业如巴斯夫和道达尔相当。</p>
<p>25 家中国化工企业进入了欧盟委员会 2025 年工业研发投资排行榜，按企业研发支出排名全球前 2000 名。</p>
<p>欧盟碳边境调整机制于 1 月 1 日生效，增加了另一个维度。该机制对化工进口征收 8% 至 18% 的碳成本，基于生产排放。</p>
<p>中国国际经济交流中心研究员王晓红在《国际商务日报》上表示，传统高能耗、高排放产品在欧盟的竞争力可能会因碳边境调整机制的引入而减弱。</p>
<p>王晓红指出，从中期来看，碳边境调整机制将加速高排放产能的退出；从长期来看，它将使实现碳效率突破的企业获得竞争优势，因为行业将从基于价格的竞争转向结合碳效率和研究强度的竞争。</p>
<p>编辑：Futura Costaglione</p>

巴斯夫(ADR)

<p>包括瑞银证券和摩根士丹利在内的主要国际投资机构对中国化工市场持乐观态度，预测 2023 年至 2028 年将迎来新的上升周期。像巴斯夫这样的跨国公司正在加大对中国的投资，强调其在增长中的重要性。分析师指出，行业内出现了结构性变化，包括全球产能合理化以及对新能源和电子等领域专业材料需求的变化。这些发展表明，中国化工行业正在经历重大转型，具有在全球范围内提高盈利能力和竞争力的潜力</p>

<p>(Yicai) Feb. 13 -- Major international investment institutions, including UBS Securities and Morgan Stanley, have expressed optimism about the Chinese chemicals market, with multinational petrochemical corporations seeing China as an essential market for their development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（第一财经）2 月 13 日——包括瑞银证券和摩根士丹利在内的主要国际投资机构对中国化工市场表示乐观，跨国石化公司将中国视为其发展的重要市场。</p>
</div><p>UBS Securities upgraded its outlook for China's chemicals industry in its latest research report, believing that it will enter a new upward cycle from this year to 2028, thanks to multiple positive factors, with profits recovering and corporate valuations increasing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银证券在其最新研究报告中上调了对中国化工行业的展望，认为该行业将在今年至 2028 年进入新的上升周期，得益于多重积极因素，利润回升和企业估值提升。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley expects a ‘long tail recovery’ rather than a sharp rebound, despite agreeing on similar fundamental shifts as UBS Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，摩根士丹利预计将出现 “长尾复苏”，而不是急剧反弹，尽管在基本面变化上与瑞银证券达成了类似的看法。</p>
</div><p>Bulk chemicals are at a dual inflection point in capacity and inventory cycles, and they are expected to experience an upward trend because domestic and overseas demand will likely recover this year, according to Huatai Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华泰证券表示，基础化学品正处于产能和库存周期的双重拐点，预计由于国内外需求有望在今年恢复，它们将经历上升趋势。</p>
</div><p>Capital expenditure in the chemicals industry has declined since 2024, and with the anti-involution wave and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity, the supply side is expected to contract, China Galaxy Securities predicted. The draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan has set the tone for the next five years with its emphasis on expanding domestic demand and establishing a dual bottom for supply and demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国银河证券预测，自 2024 年以来，化工行业的资本支出已下降，随着反内卷浪潮和过剩海外产能的加速淘汰，供应端预计将收缩。第十五个五年规划草案已为未来五年定下基调，强调扩大内需，建立供需双底。</p>
</div><p>China's seven major coastal petrochemical bases are gradually gaining global pricing power for certain products, leveraging their advantages in integration, scale, low energy consumption, and technological iteration, and transforming capacity advantages into export competitiveness, thus impacting aging capacity in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, according to analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师指出，中国七大沿海石化基地正在逐步获得某些产品的全球定价权，利用其在一体化、规模、低能耗和技术迭代方面的优势，将产能优势转化为出口竞争力，从而影响欧洲、日本和韩国的老旧产能。</p>
</div><p>Anti-involution efforts may prompt a revaluation of China's chemicals industry, with related measures expected to significantly slow capacity expansion at the global level, Guohai Securities said in a recent research report. China's chemicals industry has abundant net operating cash flow, and once expansion slows, potential dividend yields will increase substantially, it added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国海证券在最近的研究报告中表示，反内卷的努力可能促使对中国化工行业的重新估值，相关措施预计将显著减缓全球范围内的产能扩张。中国化工行业拥有丰富的净经营现金流，一旦扩张放缓，潜在的股息收益率将大幅增加。</p>
</div><p>Multinational Commitment</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>跨国公司的承诺</p>
</div><p>Global chemicals giant have expressed their commitment to the Chinese market, increasing their local investment and reiterating the importance of China in their international development strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球化工巨头已表达对中国市场的承诺，增加本地投资，并重申中国在其国际发展战略中的重要性。</p>
</div><p>For example, representatives from BASF told Yicai that the German company's Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China's southern Guangdong province, recently kicked off operations. With a total investment of EUR10 billion (USD11.9 billion), the site has put into operation three butyl acrylate units with an annual production capacity of 400,000 metric tons, an ethylene cracker with an annual output capacity of one million metric tons, and a polyethylene unit with a capacity of 500,000 metric tons per year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，巴斯夫的代表告诉第一财经，德国公司在中国南方广东省湛江的综合性工厂最近开始运营。该工厂总投资 100 亿欧元（119 亿美元），已投入运营三条年产 40 万吨的丁基丙烯酸酯装置、一条年产 100 万吨的乙烯裂解装置和一条年产 50 万吨的聚乙烯装置。</p>
</div><p>The new capacity will enhance BASF's supply capabilities, providing stable products for adhesive, coating, and specialty solution applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新产能将增强巴斯夫的供应能力，为粘合剂、涂料和特种解决方案应用提供稳定的产品。</p>
</div><p>Cellasto, a noise, vibration, and harshness reduction components manufacturer under BASF, announced in April last year that it would invest around EUR60 million (USD71.2 million) to build a second factory in Shanghai to expand its production capacity by almost 70 percent, aiming to capitalize on China's rapidly growing electric vehicle market. Operations are expected to start next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴斯夫旗下的噪声、振动和冲击减震组件制造商 Cellasto 去年 4 月宣布，将投资约 6000 万欧元（7120 万美元）在上海建设第二家工厂，计划将其生产能力扩大近 70%，以抓住中国快速增长的电动车市场。预计明年开始运营。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If you want to be a growth company in chemicals, you have to grow in China,&#34; BASF's Chief Executive Officer Markus Kamieth told several media outlets in a discussion in Berlin last November, Barron's reported. &#34;China is by far the biggest market for chemicals and the strongest manufacturing country in the world, so if China grows, the market grows.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果你想成为一家化工增长公司，你必须在中国增长，” 巴斯夫首席执行官马库斯·卡米特在去年 11 月柏林的一次讨论中对多家媒体表示，《巴伦周刊》报道。“中国无疑是全球最大的化工市场，也是世界上最强大的制造国，因此如果中国增长，市场就会增长。”</p>
</div><p>Wacker Chemie, another German chemicals giant, has designated China as its second-largest business base globally. Meanwhile, Covestro, Evonik Industries, and Solvay are all expanding their specialty chemicals production capacity in the country, targeting high-end applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一家德国化工巨头瓦克化学已将中国指定为其全球第二大业务基地。同时，科思创、埃克森美孚和索尔维都在扩大其在中国的特种化学品生产能力，瞄准高端应用。</p>
</div><p>These are not impulsive decisions, as multinationals employ rigorous due diligence, evaluating market risks, competitive dynamics, and return expectations, according to analysts. Their sustained investments suggest that they have identified opportunities, such as demand growth, supply chain integration, and access to emerging industrial applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些并非冲动决策，跨国公司在进行严格的尽职调查时，会评估市场风险、竞争动态和回报预期，分析师表示。他们持续的投资表明，他们已识别出机会，如需求增长、供应链整合和进入新兴工业应用。</p>
</div><p>Chinese Chemicals Industry's Structural Shifts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国化工行业的结构性变化</p>
</div><p>Investment banks and analysis institutes have identified three fundamental changes reshaping the Chinese chemicals industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资银行和分析机构已识别出三项根本性变化正在重塑中国化工行业。</p>
</div><p>The first is that global capacity rationalization is accelerating. Exxon Mobil said last month that it will close its ethylene cracker factory with an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons in Scotland, while Japan's Idemitsu Kosan and Mitsui Chemicals announced in December that they are decommissioning their ethylene facility with a 370,000-ton capacity in Chiba.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一是全球产能合理化加速。埃克森美孚上个月表示，将关闭其在苏格兰年产 80 万吨的乙烯裂解厂，而日本的出光兴产和三井化学在 12 月宣布将停用其在千叶的年产 37 万吨的乙烯设施。</p>
</div><p>China is also phasing out more than 12 million tons of chemicals production capacities, but that is a decision guided by policy-guided adjustments through tightened approvals, differentiated electricity pricing, and adjusted export tax rebates, rather than crisis-driven closures elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国也在逐步淘汰超过 1200 万吨的化工生产能力，但这是通过收紧审批、差异化电价和调整出口退税等政策引导的调整，而非其他地方因危机驱动的关闭。</p>
</div><p>The second change is a transformation in the demand structure. Specialized and customized materials for the new energy, electronics, and advanced equipment sectors are becoming the Chinese chemicals industry's clear growth drivers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二个变化是需求结构的转变。新能、电子和先进设备领域的专业化和定制化材料正成为中国化工行业明确的增长驱动力。</p>
</div><p>In new energy, demand is surging for solid-state battery electrolytes, hydrogen fuel cell materials, and polyolefin elastomer films for photovoltaics. In electronics, the substitution for photoresists, chemical mechanical polishing slurries, and ultra-high-purity reagents is accelerating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新能源领域，对固态电池电解质、氢燃料电池材料和光伏用聚烯烃弹性体薄膜的需求激增。在电子领域，光刻胶、化学机械抛光浆料和超高纯试剂的替代正在加速。</p>
</div><p>Other emerging sectors, such as the low-altitude economy and humanoid robots, are opening entirely new application scenarios for specialty engineering plastics, high-performance fibers, and lightweight composite materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他新兴领域，如低空经济和类人机器人，正在为特种工程塑料、高性能纤维和轻量化复合材料开辟全新的应用场景。</p>
</div><p>The third change is a sharp rise in research intensity. Wanhua Chemical Group invests an average of CNY4 billion (USD579.1 million) a year, accounting for over 4 percent of its annual revenue, which is comparable to overseas majors, such as BASF and Dow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三个变化是研究强度的显著上升。万华化学集团每年平均投资 40 亿元人民币（约合 5.791 亿美元），占其年收入的 4% 以上，这与海外主要企业如巴斯夫和道达尔相当。</p>
</div><p>Twenty-five Chinese chemicals firms entered the European Union Commission's 2025 Industrial Research and Development Investment Scoreboard, ranking in the world's top 2,000 by corporate R&amp;D spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>25 家中国化工企业进入了欧盟委员会 2025 年工业研发投资排行榜，按企业研发支出排名全球前 2000 名。</p>
</div><p>The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which took effect Jan. 1, adds another dimension. It imposes carbon costs of 8 percent to 18 percent on chemical imports, based on production emissions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟碳边境调整机制于 1 月 1 日生效，增加了另一个维度。该机制对化工进口征收 8% 至 18% 的碳成本，基于生产排放。</p>
</div><p>Traditional high-energy, high-emission products in traditional industries may see their competitiveness weaken in the EU with the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, Wang Xiaohong, researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told International Business Daily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国国际经济交流中心研究员王晓红在《国际商务日报》上表示，传统高能耗、高排放产品在欧盟的竞争力可能会因碳边境调整机制的引入而减弱。</p>
</div><p>In the medium term, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will accelerate the retirement of high-emission capacity, and in the long term, it will grant companies achieving carbon efficiency breakthroughs competitive advantages, as the industry transitions from a competition based on prices to one combining carbon efficiency and research intensity, Wang noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>王晓红指出，从中期来看，碳边境调整机制将加速高排放产能的退出；从长期来看，它将使实现碳效率突破的企业获得竞争优势，因为行业将从基于价格的竞争转向结合碳效率和研究强度的竞争。</p>
</div><p>Editor: Futura Costaglione</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>编辑：Futura Costaglione</p>
</div>

全球投资银行和跨国公司提高了在中国化学品市场的投资力度