<p>作者：布雷特·阿伦兹</p>
<p>总统提名的美联储候选人凯文·沃什会同样强硬吗？</p>
<p>美国的胜利在于美联储主席拒绝向白宫低头。</p>
<p>本周经济的重大新闻是通胀正在下降，劳动力市场好于预期，实际工资在上升。</p>
<p>那么，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的同事们是不是得到了干得不错的赞誉呢？</p>
<p>没门。总统本周在电视上与他的前首席经济顾问一起，二人都在贬低鲍威尔及其对美联储的管理。政府已对主席展开刑事调查，并试图用苏联时期的老把戏解雇副主席，这种手法通常被称为贝利亚法则。</p>
<p>这对退休人员来说是一个潜在的担忧——以及所有拥有债券或依赖投资收入的人。通胀对退休人员来说是可怕的；通胀下降是好的。通胀之所以现在下降，仅仅是因为鲍威尔在过去一年中无视了来自白宫的胡言乱语和侮辱，坚守自己的立场。</p>
<p>现在的问题是：总统提名的下一任美联储主席凯文·沃什会展现出同样的独立性和勇气吗？</p>
<p>我们无从得知。华尔街对此持乐观态度：自沃什被宣布为提名人以来，市场反应积极。但如果沃什真的打算走一条完全独立于总统的道路，你不得不问他是如何获得提名的。</p>
<p>这位总统可不容忍任何不忠或异议（问问玛乔丽·泰勒·格林就知道了）。正如他本周在电视上所解释的，总统非常非常希望美联储削减短期利率——至少削减一半，甚至可能降到与瑞士相同的 0%。</p>
<p>在这个时刻，回顾我们所处的位置以及接下来要走的方向是有益的。</p>
<p>毫无疑问：如果这些数字持续下去，通胀下降和强劲的就业都是鲍威尔的成就。他承受了前所未有的压力，要求过早削减短期利率。总统公开称他为 “太晚了”、“失败者” 等，并几乎在去年坚持认为短期利率应该是 1% 甚至更低。（总统还称美联储主席为 “笨蛋”。）与此同时，副总统表示鲍威尔犯了 “货币失职”。而总统的检察长则对他展开了刑事调查。</p>
<p>如果美联储屈服于政治压力，经济会处于何种境地？我们只能想象。但你很难找到任何一位经济学家认为如果去年利率被削减，通胀会下降——尤其是如果如总统所愿，削减到 1% 或更低。</p>
<p>这也是你定期提醒自己在媒体和政治家谈论美联储和 “利率” 时要记住背景的提醒。经济中有很多利率；总统希望鲍威尔削减的正是隔夜联邦基金利率。</p>
<p>对整个经济来说，可能更重要的是美联储并不直接控制的其他利率，而只能间接影响。这些包括关键的利率或 10 年期国债的收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，以及公司发行自己债券时需要支付的额外利息。</p>
<p>而当你查看这些时，你会发现杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储已经大幅降低了利率。</p>
<p>10 年期国债的收益率——在总统去年就职时为 4.6%，去年夏天最近为 4.47%——在周五早上再次跌至 4.1% 以下。</p>
<p>与此同时，美国公司借款的成本比总统去年就职时便宜。这意味着他们可以更容易地获得资金进行投资，促进经济增长。投资级公司和风险较高的高收益债券的平均收益率都在下降。</p>
<p>尽管在总统不幸的 “解放日” 事件中，他们的利率在去年春天大幅上升，导致市场动荡。</p>
<p>所有这些对经济来说都是好消息，尤其是对那些依靠固定收入生活的人。</p>
<p>如果通胀继续下降，明年的社会保障生活成本调整（COLA）将低于今年。这是个好消息——实际上，这是个极好的消息。COLA 越高，对老年人来说越糟糕，因为这意味着通胀越高。而 COLA 是滞后的，通常是去年数据。</p>
<p>与此同时，我唯一拥有的长期国债是通胀保护的 TIPS。在大幅 “上涨” 的日子里，我的表现不如债券市场——但我晚上能安然入睡。</p>
<p>-布雷特·阿伦兹</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>02-13-26 1420ET</p>

道琼斯指数

金融业 ETF - SPDR

纳斯达克综合指数

<p>经济显示出积极的迹象，通胀下降、就业市场强劲以及实际工资上升，这归功于美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在政治压力下的独立性。总统提名的美联储候选人凯文·沃什引发了对未来美联储领导层的质疑。10 年期国债收益率下降，这对公司和经济都有利。如果通胀继续下降，可能会导致老年人的社会保障生活成本调整降低，这是一项利好。总体而言，鲍威尔的举措为当前的经济稳定做出了贡献</p>

<p>By Brett Arends</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：布雷特·阿伦兹</p>
</div><p>Will the president's Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh be as tough?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总统提名的美联储候选人凯文·沃什会同样强硬吗？</p>
</div><p>America wins because the Fed chairman refused to kowtow to the Oval Office.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的胜利在于美联储主席拒绝向白宫低头。</p>
</div><p>The big news from the economy this week is that inflation is coming down, the jobs market is better than expected and real wages are rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周经济的重大新闻是通胀正在下降，劳动力市场好于预期，实际工资在上升。</p>
</div><p>So Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are getting credit for a job well done, right?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的同事们是不是得到了干得不错的赞誉呢？</p>
</div><p>Not a chance. The president was on TV this week with his former chief economic adviser, and both of them were badmouthing Powell and his stewardship of the Fed. The administration has launched a criminal investigation into the chairman, and is also trying to fire the deputy chair using the old Soviet Union trick generally known as Beria's law.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没门。总统本周在电视上与他的前首席经济顾问一起，二人都在贬低鲍威尔及其对美联储的管理。政府已对主席展开刑事调查，并试图用苏联时期的老把戏解雇副主席，这种手法通常被称为贝利亚法则。</p>
</div><p>This is a potential worry for retirees - and everyone else who owns bonds or who relies on their investments for income. Inflation is terrible for retirees; falling inflation is good. Inflation is falling right now only because Powell has ignored the gibberish and insults from the Oval Office for a year and stuck to his guns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对退休人员来说是一个潜在的担忧——以及所有拥有债券或依赖投资收入的人。通胀对退休人员来说是可怕的；通胀下降是好的。通胀之所以现在下降，仅仅是因为鲍威尔在过去一年中无视了来自白宫的胡言乱语和侮辱，坚守自己的立场。</p>
</div><p>The question now is: Will Kevin Warsh, the president's pick to be the next Fed chairman, show the same independence and guts?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在的问题是：总统提名的下一任美联储主席凯文·沃什会展现出同样的独立性和勇气吗？</p>
</div><p>We have no idea. Wall Street is hopeful: The market reaction since Warsh was announced as the nominee has been positive. But if Warsh really is going to steer a path completely independent of the president, you have to ask how he got the nomination.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们无从得知。华尔街对此持乐观态度：自沃什被宣布为提名人以来，市场反应积极。但如果沃什真的打算走一条完全独立于总统的道路，你不得不问他是如何获得提名的。</p>
</div><p>This is not a president who tolerates any disloyalty or dissent (just ask Marjorie Taylor Greene). As he explained on TV this week, the president really, really wants the Fed to slash short-term interest rates - at least by half, and possibly to match Switzerland at 0%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位总统可不容忍任何不忠或异议（问问玛乔丽·泰勒·格林就知道了）。正如他本周在电视上所解释的，总统非常非常希望美联储削减短期利率——至少削减一半，甚至可能降到与瑞士相同的 0%。</p>
</div><p>At this juncture, it is useful to look at where we are and where we go next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这个时刻，回顾我们所处的位置以及接下来要走的方向是有益的。</p>
</div><p>Make no mistake: Falling inflation and strong jobs, if those numbers persist, are Powell's achievements. He was put under unprecedented pressure to slash short-term rates prematurely. The president publicly labeled him &#34;too late,&#34; a &#34;loser&#34; and more, and insisted nearly all last year that short-term rates should be 1% or even lower. (The president also called the Fed chairman a &#34;numbskull.&#34;) The vice president, meanwhile, said Powell was guilty of &#34;monetary malpractice.&#34; And the president's attorney general launched a criminal investigation into him.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问：如果这些数字持续下去，通胀下降和强劲的就业都是鲍威尔的成就。他承受了前所未有的压力，要求过早削减短期利率。总统公开称他为 “太晚了”、“失败者” 等，并几乎在去年坚持认为短期利率应该是 1% 甚至更低。（总统还称美联储主席为 “笨蛋”。）与此同时，副总统表示鲍威尔犯了 “货币失职”。而总统的检察长则对他展开了刑事调查。</p>
</div><p>Where would the economy be if the Fed had buckled to the political pressure? We can only imagine. But you would walk a long way to find a single economist anywhere who thinks inflation would be coming down if interest rates had been slashed last year - especially if, as the president wanted, they were slashed to 1% or lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美联储屈服于政治压力，经济会处于何种境地？我们只能想象。但你很难找到任何一位经济学家认为如果去年利率被削减，通胀会下降——尤其是如果如总统所愿，削减到 1% 或更低。</p>
</div><p>And this is your regular reminder to remember the context when the media and politicians talk about the Fed and &#34;interest rates.&#34; There are lots of interest rates in the economy; the one that the president wanted Powell to cut was the overnight fed-funds rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也是你定期提醒自己在媒体和政治家谈论美联储和 “利率” 时要记住背景的提醒。经济中有很多利率；总统希望鲍威尔削减的正是隔夜联邦基金利率。</p>
</div><p>Probably more important for the entire economy are other interest rates that the Fed does not control directly, and may only influence indirectly. These include the critical interest rate, or yield, on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, plus the extra interest on top of that that corporations have to pay to issue their own bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对整个经济来说，可能更重要的是美联储并不直接控制的其他利率，而只能间接影响。这些包括关键的利率或 10 年期国债的收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，以及公司发行自己债券时需要支付的额外利息。</p>
</div><p>And when you look there, you'll see that Jerome Powell and the Fed have cut rates - big time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而当你查看这些时，你会发现杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储已经大幅降低了利率。</p>
</div><p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury - 4.6% when the president took office last year, and 4.47% as recently as last summer - tumbled again Friday morning to below 4.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期国债的收益率——在总统去年就职时为 4.6%，去年夏天最近为 4.47%——在周五早上再次跌至 4.1% 以下。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, U.S. companies can borrow money more cheaply than they could when the president was inaugurated last year. That means they can get easier access to money to invest and boost the economy. The average yield charged on bonds has fallen both for investment-grade companies and for riskier high-yield bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美国公司借款的成本比总统去年就职时便宜。这意味着他们可以更容易地获得资金进行投资，促进经济增长。投资级公司和风险较高的高收益债券的平均收益率都在下降。</p>
</div><p>And that's despite a big jump in their interest rates last spring, when the president's ill-fated &#34;liberation day&#34; fiasco plunged markets into turmoil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在总统不幸的 “解放日” 事件中，他们的利率在去年春天大幅上升，导致市场动荡。</p>
</div><p>All of this is good news for the economy, and especially for those who live on fixed incomes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些对经济来说都是好消息，尤其是对那些依靠固定收入生活的人。</p>
</div><p>If inflation continues to fall, next year's Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, will be less than this year's. That's good news - actually, it's excellent news. The higher the COLA, the worse it is for seniors, because it means inflation is higher. And the COLA comes a year in arrears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果通胀继续下降，明年的社会保障生活成本调整（COLA）将低于今年。这是个好消息——实际上，这是个极好的消息。COLA 越高，对老年人来说越糟糕，因为这意味着通胀越高。而 COLA 是滞后的，通常是去年数据。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the only longer-term Treasury bonds I own are inflation-protected TIPS. I underperform the bond market on big &#34;up&#34; days - but I sleep at night.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，我唯一拥有的长期国债是通胀保护的 TIPS。在大幅 “上涨” 的日子里，我的表现不如债券市场——但我晚上能安然入睡。</p>
</div><p>-Brett Arends</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-布雷特·阿伦兹</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>02-13-26 1420ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-13-26 1420ET</p>
</div>

Thank 'Too Late' Jerome Powell for the jobs and inflation beats

感谢 ‘太迟’ 的杰罗姆·鲍威尔，使得就业和通胀数据超出预期