<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1578575437130-527eed3abbec/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1578575437130-527eed3abbec/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>加拿大人现在意识到 “皇帝没有穿衣服”，因为总统正在逐步放弃曾威胁要使加拿大经济崩溃的关税政策。最近几天，一系列相关的发展表明，美国人告诉白宫，特朗普的双边贸易政策对他们自己造成的伤害大于对加拿大的伤害。随着美国中期选举的临近，美国政府在维持其最初的强硬立场方面面临压力。</p>
<p>让我们先来 <strong>总体评估关税对美国经济的影响。</strong> 圣路易斯联邦储备银行的研究得出结论：&#34; <em>关税措施已经对消费者价格施加了可测量的上行压力。价格在 2025 年初开始上涨，与关税发展密切相关</em>。”</p>
<p>哈佛的研究最近发现，美国对进口的关税主要由美国公司和美国消费者承担。这一点自始至终就为消费者和众多企业所知。</p>
<p>转向加拿大，目前受关税影响的主要行业总结：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_nm1_639066217814418487.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_nm1_639066217814418487.webp"/></p>
<p>综合考虑，85% 的加拿大出口到美国在 CUSMA 下免税，这是一个起源于 1980 年代的自由贸易协议。然而，<strong>最严重的关税集中在钢铁，尤其是铝材上</strong>。加拿大提供大约 10% 的消费钢铁和近 25% 的所有进口钢铁。加拿大提供近 60% 的美国消费铝材。由于没有立即的替代来源，50% 的价格上涨由进口商和美国制造商共同承担。</p>
<p>《金融时报》报道，美国贸易官员终于认识到，对基本金属产品的关税正在伤害制造商，最终影响消费者。例如，北美汽车工业报告称，他们支付了超过 50 亿美元的关税，减少了上个季度的利润。生产商在被迫提高价格之前能够吸收的成本是有限的。铝材尤其直接影响消费者在食品和饮料产品上的支出，家庭负担问题已成为大家关注的焦点。</p>
<p>随着谈判在今年晚些时候展开，CUSMA 的前景如何？特朗普通常会发表强硬言论，声称美国应该抛弃加拿大，只与墨西哥达成特别协议（他可能对墨西哥的看法正好相反）。我们在 2016-19 年 CUSMA 续签的过程中见过他这种表现。与此同时，我们可以预期特朗普会抨击加拿大的不公平，但加拿大人不会在意。我们都见过这种表演。与此同时，国会中来自与加拿大有大量业务往来的州的代表们正在排队准备取消双边关税。上周，共和党人打破了与总统的关系，加入众议院的民主党人投票推翻特朗普对加拿大的关税。尽管特朗普很可能会否决该法案，但选民对关税对企业和消费者影响的焦虑已成为下次中期选举的主要问题。在关键州继续对加拿大的攻击政治风险太高。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>是时候审视关税是否对美国有效了。</p>
<p>美国双赤字回归现实</p>
<p>加拿大的卡尼暗示世界贸易新时代的到来</p>

<p>特朗普对加拿大的贸易战正在失去动力，因为关税对美国经济造成了不利影响。最近的研究表明，美国的关税主要影响美国消费者和企业，预计将出现显著的价格上涨。尽管根据《美墨加协定》（CUSMA），85% 的加拿大出口商品可以免税进入美国，但对钢铁和铝的关税正在给美国制造商和消费者带来财务压力。政治压力正在加大，国会两党支持在中期选举前取消这些关税，突显了人们对其经济影响日益增长的担忧</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1578575437130-527eed3abbec/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1578575437130-527eed3abbec?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;ixid=eyJhcHBfaWQiOjEyMDd9&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>Canadians now see that the “emperor wears no clothes”, as the President is steadily walking back from a tariff policy once threatening to bring the Canadian economy to its knees. In recent days, a series of somewhat related developments, Americans have told the White House that Trump’s bilateral trade policies are more harmful to themselves than to Canadians. And with the U.S. midterm elections not so far in the distance, the U.S. government is up against the wall in trying to maintain its initial aggressive stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大人现在意识到 “皇帝没有穿衣服”，因为总统正在逐步放弃曾威胁要使加拿大经济崩溃的关税政策。最近几天，一系列相关的发展表明，美国人告诉白宫，特朗普的双边贸易政策对他们自己造成的伤害大于对加拿大的伤害。随着美国中期选举的临近，美国政府在维持其最初的强硬立场方面面临压力。</p>
</div><p>Let's startwith an <strong>overall assessment of the impact of tariffs on the American economy.</strong> The St Louis Federal Reserve study concluded that &#34; <em>tariff measures are already exerting measurable upward pressure on consumer prices. The rise in prices beginning in early 2025 coincides closely with tariff developments</em>”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们先来 <strong>总体评估关税对美国经济的影响。</strong> 圣路易斯联邦储备银行的研究得出结论：&#34; <em>关税措施已经对消费者价格施加了可测量的上行压力。价格在 2025 年初开始上涨，与关税发展密切相关</em>。”</p>
</div><p>Harvard research  recently found that U.S.tariffs on imports are mostly borne by U.S. firms and U.S. consumers. Something already known by consumers and a host of businesses since day-one .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哈佛的研究最近发现，美国对进口的关税主要由美国公司和美国消费者承担。这一点自始至终就为消费者和众多企业所知。</p>
</div><p>Turning to Canada, summary of major sectors currently subject to tariffs today:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>转向加拿大，目前受关税影响的主要行业总结：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_nm1_639066217814418487.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_nm1_639066217814418487.webp"/></p>
<p>All things considered, 85% of all Canadian exports to the U.S. enter duty-free under CUSMA, a free trade agreement with its origins in the 1980s. However, the <strong>most egregious set of tariffs exist on steel and, especially aluminum</strong>. Canada supplies roughly 10% of steel consumed and nearly 25% of all foreign steel imported. Canada provides nearly 60% of all aluminum consumed in the U.S. With no immediate alternative source, the 50% price hike is shared by the importer and U.S. manufacturers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合考虑，85% 的加拿大出口到美国在 CUSMA 下免税，这是一个起源于 1980 年代的自由贸易协议。然而，<strong>最严重的关税集中在钢铁，尤其是铝材上</strong>。加拿大提供大约 10% 的消费钢铁和近 25% 的所有进口钢铁。加拿大提供近 60% 的美国消费铝材。由于没有立即的替代来源，50% 的价格上涨由进口商和美国制造商共同承担。</p>
</div><p>The Financial Times reports that U.S. trade officials are finally recognizing that tariffs on essential metal products are hurting manufacturers and ultimately consumers. The North American auto industry, for example, reported that it paid more $5 billion in tariffs, reducing last quarter’s profit. There is only so much that producers can absorb before being forced to raise prices. Aluminum especially hits the consumers directly in food and drink products, and household affordability issues are on everyone’s mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《金融时报》报道，美国贸易官员终于认识到，对基本金属产品的关税正在伤害制造商，最终影响消费者。例如，北美汽车工业报告称，他们支付了超过 50 亿美元的关税，减少了上个季度的利润。生产商在被迫提高价格之前能够吸收的成本是有限的。铝材尤其直接影响消费者在食品和饮料产品上的支出，家庭负担问题已成为大家关注的焦点。</p>
</div><p>What are the prospects for CUSMA as negotiations get underway later this year? Trump generally comes out swinging with statements to the effect that the U.S. should ditch Canada and go only for a special deal with Mexico (he may well think the opposite with respect to Mexico). We have seen this type of performance from him before in the last go around on CUSMA’s renewal in 2016-19. Meanwhile we can expect Trump to rail against Canadian unfairness, but Canadians will take no notice. We have all seen that showmanshipbefore. Meanwhile, Congress with representatives in states that do considerable business with Canada are lining up to remove the bilateral tariffs.Republicans broke with the President joining Democrats in the House of Representatives in voting to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Canada, last week. Despite the fact that Trump will most likely veto the bill should it pass Congress, voter anxiety about the impact of tariffs on businesses and consumers has now become a major issue in the nextmidterms.The political risks are too high in key states to continue thisassault on Canada.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着谈判在今年晚些时候展开，CUSMA 的前景如何？特朗普通常会发表强硬言论，声称美国应该抛弃加拿大，只与墨西哥达成特别协议（他可能对墨西哥的看法正好相反）。我们在 2016-19 年 CUSMA 续签的过程中见过他这种表现。与此同时，我们可以预期特朗普会抨击加拿大的不公平，但加拿大人不会在意。我们都见过这种表演。与此同时，国会中来自与加拿大有大量业务往来的州的代表们正在排队准备取消双边关税。上周，共和党人打破了与总统的关系，加入众议院的民主党人投票推翻特朗普对加拿大的关税。尽管特朗普很可能会否决该法案，但选民对关税对企业和消费者影响的焦虑已成为下次中期选举的主要问题。在关键州继续对加拿大的攻击政治风险太高。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Time To Examine If Tariffs Have Worked For The U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是时候审视关税是否对美国有效了。</p>
</div><p>U.S. Twin Deficits Come Home To Roost</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国双赤字回归现实</p>
</div><p>Canada’s Carney Signals A New Era In World Trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大的卡尼暗示世界贸易新时代的到来</p>
</div>

Trump's Trade War Against Canada Is Fizzling Out

- 加拿大人意识到关税政策对美国经济造成负面影响。  
- 研究表明，美国消费者和公司需承担关税带来的成本，且钢铝关税冲击制造业。  
- 未来谈判中，美国国会议员反对关税，选民对关税影响产生焦虑。

特朗普对加拿大的贸易战正在逐渐消退