好消息是：
<ul>
<li>道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）上周一收于历史最高点。</li>
</ul>
负面因素
第一张图表涵盖了过去 6 个月，显示纳斯达克综合指数（OTC）以蓝色表示，纳斯达克新低的 10% 趋势（19 日指数移动平均线）以棕色表示。OTC NL 已在反向 Y 轴上绘制，因此新低数量减少会使指标上升（上升是好事）。在每个月的第一个交易日上绘制了虚线垂直线。
OTC NL 上周在高位波动。
下一张图表与上面的一样，只是显示标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）为红色，纽约新低（NY NL）以蓝色表示，已根据纽约证券交易所的数据计算。
NY NL 上周有所下降。
下一张图表涵盖了过去 6 个月，显示 OTC 为蓝色，纳斯达克新高的 40% 趋势（4 日指数移动平均线）以红色表示，计算公式为新高除以新高加新低（OTC HL Ratio）。在指标的 10% 水平上绘制了虚线水平线；在 50% 的中性水平（新高和新低数量相等）处，线条为实线。
OTC HL Ratio 在中性线附近波动，周末略显负面。
积极因素
下一张图表与上面的一样，只是显示 SPX 为红色，纽约新高比率（NY HL Ratio）以蓝色表示，已根据纽约证券交易所的数据计算。
NY HL Ratio 上周略有上升。
下一张图表涵盖了过去 6 个月，显示 OTC 为蓝色，纳斯达克新高的 10% 趋势（OTC NH）以绿色表示。在每个月的第一个交易日上绘制了虚线垂直线。
OTC NH 上周有所上升。
下一张图表与上面的一样，只是显示 SPX 为红色，纽约新高（NY NH）以绿色表示，已根据纽约证券交易所的数据计算。
NY NH 在确认 DJIA 历史最高点后继续上升。
季节性
下周包括总统周期第二年的 2 月第三个星期五之前的 5 个交易日。下面的表格显示了该期间的每日变化，以百分比为单位。
OTC 数据涵盖 1963 年至 2025 年，而 SPX 数据从 1953 年至 2025 年。对于总统周期的第二年和所有年份的汇总都有提供。在 1953 年之前，市场每周交易 6 天，因此该数据被忽略。
即将到来的周的季节性在所有指标上都是积极的。
报告：2 月第三个星期五之前的一周。
年份后面的数字是总统周期中的位置。周一到第三个星期五的每日回报。
OTC 总统年 2（PY2）
年份 一 星期一 星期二 星期三 星期四 星期五 总计
1966-2 0.23% -0.22% -0.47% 0.50% 0.13% 0.19%
1970-2 -0.17% -0.10% -0.17% 0.67% 0.02% 0.26%
1974-2 -1.16% -0.69% -0.46% 0.14% 0.85% -1.32%
1978-2 -0.23% -0.54% -0.21% -0.38% 0.08% -1.29%
1982-2 0.00% -0.99% 0.30% 0.07% -0.40% -1.02%
平均 -0.33% -0.51% -0.20% 0.20% 0.14% -0.64%
1986-2 0.00% 0.61% 0.15% 0.06% 0.72% 1.54%
1990-2 -0.57% -0.15% 0.19% 0.72% -0.14% 0.04%
1994-2 0.52% 0.59% 0.32% -0.30% -0.18% 0.95%
1998-2 0.00% -0.41% 0.72% 0.66% 0.06% 1.04%
2002-2 1.53% -0.67% 1.36% -0.85% -2.07% -0.71%
平均 0.49% 0.00% 0.55% 0.06% -0.32% 0.57%
2006-2 -0.98% 1.00% 0.63% 0.80% -0.53% 0.92%
2010-2 0.00% 1.40% 0.55% 0.69% 0.10% 2.74%
2014-2 0.00% 0.68% -0.82% 0.70% -0.10% 0.46%
2018-2 1.56% 0.45% 1.85% 1.57% -0.23% 5.19%
2022-2 0.00% 2.53% -0.11% -2.88% -1.23% -1.70%
平均 0.19% 1.21% 0.42% 0.18% -0.40% 1.52%
OTC PY2 1966 - 2022 汇总
平均 0.07% 0.23% 0.26% 0.14% -0.19% 0.49%
胜率 40% 47% 60% 73% 47% 67%
OTC 所有年份 1963 - 2025 汇总
平均 0.16% -0.02% 0.16% 0.06% -0.21% 0.10%
胜率 59% 53% 60% 59% 46% 57%
SPX PY2
年份 一 星期一 星期二 星期三 星期四 星期五 总计
1954-2 -0.31% -0.88% 0.19% 0.39% -0.15% -0.76%
1958-2 -0.53% 0.15% -0.05% -0.58% -0.07% -1.09%
1962-2 -0.03% -0.01% -0.04% 0.45% -0.21% 0.16%
1966-2 -0.17% -0.51% -0.01% -0.54% -0.27% -1.50%
1970-2 -0.08% -0.12% 1.24% 0.37% 0.31% 1.72%
1974-2 -1.81% 0.31% 0.04% -0.03% 1.45% -0.04%
1978-2 -0.24% -0.91% -0.24% -0.84% -0.14% -2.37%
1982-2 0.00% -0.28% -0.32% 0.11% -0.53% -1.02%
平均 -0.58% -0.30% 0.14% -0.19% 0.17% -0.64%
1986-2 0.00% 1.22% -1.21% 1.12% 1.08% 2.21%
1990-2 -1.06% 0.28% 0.30% 0.87% -0.65% -0.26%
1994-2 0.01% 0.49% 0.06% -0.52% -0.56% -0.53%
1998-2 0.00% 0.26% 0.91% -0.37% 0.57% 1.38%
2002-2 1.43% -0.40% 0.99% -0.18% -1.10% 0.75%
平均 0.13% 0.37% 0.21% 0.18% -0.13% 0.71%
2006-2 -0.33% 1.00% 0.35% 0.73% -0.17% 1.59%
2010-2 0.00% 1.80% 0.42% 0.66% 0.22% 3.10%
2014-2 0.00% 0.12% -0.65% 0.60% -0.19% -0.13%
2018-2 1.39% 0.26% 1.34% 1.21% 0.04% 4.24%
2022-2 -0.38% 1.58% 0.09% -2.12% -0.72% -1.55%
平均 0.23% 0.95% 0.31% 0.22% -0.16% 1.45%
SPX PY2 1954 - 2022 汇总
平均 -0.16% 0.24% 0.19% 0.07% -0.06% 0.33%
胜率 23% 61% 61% 56% 33% 44%
SPX 所有年份 1953 - 2025 汇总
平均 0.11% 0.01% 0.22% -0.06% -0.05% 0.21%
胜率 49% 56% 62% 47% 45% 56%
结论
新低的高水平仍然令人担忧。
上周表现最强的行业是公用事业和贵金属（从上周底部反弹），而表现最弱的是互联网（连续第五周）和银行。
我预计主要指数在 2 月 20 日星期五会高于 2 月 13 日星期五的水平。
上周的积极预测未能实现。
<hr/>
更多来自此作者的内容：
2026 年 2 月 7 日技术市场报告
截至 1 月 31 日的技术市场报告
2026 年 1 月 24 日技术市场报告

道琼斯工业平均分红 ETF - Invesco

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

全美成长股指数 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）达到了历史新高，而纳斯达克综合指数则显示出混合信号，新低和新高交替波动。标普 500 的新高也确认了道琼斯的峰值。根据总统周期的历史数据，未来一周的季节性趋势看起来积极。总体而言，市场情绪谨慎乐观，各个指数的指标显示出正面和负面的波动

The good news is:
<div class="lb-trans">好消息是：
</div><ul>
<li>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at an all time high last Monday.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）上周一收于历史最高点。</li>
</ul>
</div>The Negatives
<div class="lb-trans">负面因素
</div>The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good). Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
<div class="lb-trans">第一张图表涵盖了过去 6 个月，显示纳斯达克综合指数（OTC）以蓝色表示，纳斯达克新低的 10% 趋势（19 日指数移动平均线）以棕色表示。OTC NL 已在反向 Y 轴上绘制，因此新低数量减少会使指标上升（上升是好事）。在每个月的第一个交易日上绘制了虚线垂直线。
</div>OTC NL bounced around at a high level last week.
<div class="lb-trans">OTC NL 上周在高位波动。
</div>The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
<div class="lb-trans">下一张图表与上面的一样，只是显示标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）为红色，纽约新低（NY NL）以蓝色表示，已根据纽约证券交易所的数据计算。
</div>NY NL moved downward last week.
<div class="lb-trans">NY NL 上周有所下降。
</div>The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
<div class="lb-trans">下一张图表涵盖了过去 6 个月，显示 OTC 为蓝色，纳斯达克新高的 40% 趋势（4 日指数移动平均线）以红色表示，计算公式为新高除以新高加新低（OTC HL Ratio）。在指标的 10% 水平上绘制了虚线水平线；在 50% 的中性水平（新高和新低数量相等）处，线条为实线。
</div>OTC HL Ratio moved around the neutral line ending the week slightly negative.
<div class="lb-trans">OTC HL Ratio 在中性线附近波动，周末略显负面。
</div>The Positives
<div class="lb-trans">积极因素
</div>The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
<div class="lb-trans">下一张图表与上面的一样，只是显示 SPX 为红色，纽约新高比率（NY HL Ratio）以蓝色表示，已根据纽约证券交易所的数据计算。
</div>NY HL Ratio rose a bit last week.
<div class="lb-trans">NY HL Ratio 上周略有上升。
</div>The next chart covers the last 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
<div class="lb-trans">下一张图表涵盖了过去 6 个月，显示 OTC 为蓝色，纳斯达克新高的 10% 趋势（OTC NH）以绿色表示。在每个月的第一个交易日上绘制了虚线垂直线。
</div>OTC NH moved upward last week.
<div class="lb-trans">OTC NH 上周有所上升。
</div>The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data.
<div class="lb-trans">下一张图表与上面的一样，只是显示 SPX 为红色，纽约新高（NY NH）以绿色表示，已根据纽约证券交易所的数据计算。
</div>NY NH continued moving higher after confirming the all time high for the the DJIA earlier in the week.
<div class="lb-trans">NY NH 在确认 DJIA 历史最高点后继续上升。
</div>Seasonality
<div class="lb-trans">季节性
</div>Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of February during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
<div class="lb-trans">下周包括总统周期第二年的 2 月第三个星期五之前的 5 个交易日。下面的表格显示了该期间的每日变化，以百分比为单位。
</div>OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
<div class="lb-trans">OTC 数据涵盖 1963 年至 2025 年，而 SPX 数据从 1953 年至 2025 年。对于总统周期的第二年和所有年份的汇总都有提供。在 1953 年之前，市场每周交易 6 天，因此该数据被忽略。
</div>Seasonality for the coming week has been positive by all measures.
<div class="lb-trans">即将到来的周的季节性在所有指标上都是积极的。
</div>Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of February.
<div class="lb-trans">报告：2 月第三个星期五之前的一周。
</div>The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle. Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.
<div class="lb-trans">年份后面的数字是总统周期中的位置。周一到第三个星期五的每日回报。
</div>OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)
<div class="lb-trans">OTC 总统年 2（PY2）
</div>Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
<div class="lb-trans">年份 一 星期一 星期二 星期三 星期四 星期五 总计
</div>1966-2 0.23% -0.22% -0.47% 0.50% 0.13% 0.19%
<div class="lb-trans">1966-2 0.23% -0.22% -0.47% 0.50% 0.13% 0.19%
</div>1970-2 -0.17% -0.10% -0.17% 0.67% 0.02% 0.26%
<div class="lb-trans">1970-2 -0.17% -0.10% -0.17% 0.67% 0.02% 0.26%
</div>1974-2 -1.16% -0.69% -0.46% 0.14% 0.85% -1.32%
<div class="lb-trans">1974-2 -1.16% -0.69% -0.46% 0.14% 0.85% -1.32%
</div>1978-2 -0.23% -0.54% -0.21% -0.38% 0.08% -1.29%
<div class="lb-trans">1978-2 -0.23% -0.54% -0.21% -0.38% 0.08% -1.29%
</div>1982-2 0.00% -0.99% 0.30% 0.07% -0.40% -1.02%
<div class="lb-trans">1982-2 0.00% -0.99% 0.30% 0.07% -0.40% -1.02%
</div>Avg -0.33% -0.51% -0.20% 0.20% 0.14% -0.64%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 -0.33% -0.51% -0.20% 0.20% 0.14% -0.64%
</div>1986-2 0.00% 0.61% 0.15% 0.06% 0.72% 1.54%
<div class="lb-trans">1986-2 0.00% 0.61% 0.15% 0.06% 0.72% 1.54%
</div>1990-2 -0.57% -0.15% 0.19% 0.72% -0.14% 0.04%
<div class="lb-trans">1990-2 -0.57% -0.15% 0.19% 0.72% -0.14% 0.04%
</div>1994-2 0.52% 0.59% 0.32% -0.30% -0.18% 0.95%
<div class="lb-trans">1994-2 0.52% 0.59% 0.32% -0.30% -0.18% 0.95%
</div>1998-2 0.00% -0.41% 0.72% 0.66% 0.06% 1.04%
<div class="lb-trans">1998-2 0.00% -0.41% 0.72% 0.66% 0.06% 1.04%
</div>2002-2 1.53% -0.67% 1.36% -0.85% -2.07% -0.71%
<div class="lb-trans">2002-2 1.53% -0.67% 1.36% -0.85% -2.07% -0.71%
</div>Avg 0.49% 0.00% 0.55% 0.06% -0.32% 0.57%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.49% 0.00% 0.55% 0.06% -0.32% 0.57%
</div>2006-2 -0.98% 1.00% 0.63% 0.80% -0.53% 0.92%
<div class="lb-trans">2006-2 -0.98% 1.00% 0.63% 0.80% -0.53% 0.92%
</div>2010-2 0.00% 1.40% 0.55% 0.69% 0.10% 2.74%
<div class="lb-trans">2010-2 0.00% 1.40% 0.55% 0.69% 0.10% 2.74%
</div>2014-2 0.00% 0.68% -0.82% 0.70% -0.10% 0.46%
<div class="lb-trans">2014-2 0.00% 0.68% -0.82% 0.70% -0.10% 0.46%
</div>2018-2 1.56% 0.45% 1.85% 1.57% -0.23% 5.19%
<div class="lb-trans">2018-2 1.56% 0.45% 1.85% 1.57% -0.23% 5.19%
</div>2022-2 0.00% 2.53% -0.11% -2.88% -1.23% -1.70%
<div class="lb-trans">2022-2 0.00% 2.53% -0.11% -2.88% -1.23% -1.70%
</div>Avg 0.19% 1.21% 0.42% 0.18% -0.40% 1.52%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.19% 1.21% 0.42% 0.18% -0.40% 1.52%
</div>OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022
<div class="lb-trans">OTC PY2 1966 - 2022 汇总
</div>Avg 0.07% 0.23% 0.26% 0.14% -0.19% 0.49%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.07% 0.23% 0.26% 0.14% -0.19% 0.49%
</div>Win% 40% 47% 60% 73% 47% 67%
<div class="lb-trans">胜率 40% 47% 60% 73% 47% 67%
</div>OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025
<div class="lb-trans">OTC 所有年份 1963 - 2025 汇总
</div>Avg 0.16% -0.02% 0.16% 0.06% -0.21% 0.10%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.16% -0.02% 0.16% 0.06% -0.21% 0.10%
</div>Win% 59% 53% 60% 59% 46% 57%
<div class="lb-trans">胜率 59% 53% 60% 59% 46% 57%
</div>SPX PY2
<div class="lb-trans">SPX PY2
</div>Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
<div class="lb-trans">年份 一 星期一 星期二 星期三 星期四 星期五 总计
</div>1954-2 -0.31% -0.88% 0.19% 0.39% -0.15% -0.76%
<div class="lb-trans">1954-2 -0.31% -0.88% 0.19% 0.39% -0.15% -0.76%
</div>1958-2 -0.53% 0.15% -0.05% -0.58% -0.07% -1.09%
<div class="lb-trans">1958-2 -0.53% 0.15% -0.05% -0.58% -0.07% -1.09%
</div>1962-2 -0.03% -0.01% -0.04% 0.45% -0.21% 0.16%
<div class="lb-trans">1962-2 -0.03% -0.01% -0.04% 0.45% -0.21% 0.16%
</div>1966-2 -0.17% -0.51% -0.01% -0.54% -0.27% -1.50%
<div class="lb-trans">1966-2 -0.17% -0.51% -0.01% -0.54% -0.27% -1.50%
</div>1970-2 -0.08% -0.12% 1.24% 0.37% 0.31% 1.72%
<div class="lb-trans">1970-2 -0.08% -0.12% 1.24% 0.37% 0.31% 1.72%
</div>1974-2 -1.81% 0.31% 0.04% -0.03% 1.45% -0.04%
<div class="lb-trans">1974-2 -1.81% 0.31% 0.04% -0.03% 1.45% -0.04%
</div>1978-2 -0.24% -0.91% -0.24% -0.84% -0.14% -2.37%
<div class="lb-trans">1978-2 -0.24% -0.91% -0.24% -0.84% -0.14% -2.37%
</div>1982-2 0.00% -0.28% -0.32% 0.11% -0.53% -1.02%
<div class="lb-trans">1982-2 0.00% -0.28% -0.32% 0.11% -0.53% -1.02%
</div>Avg -0.58% -0.30% 0.14% -0.19% 0.17% -0.64%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 -0.58% -0.30% 0.14% -0.19% 0.17% -0.64%
</div>1986-2 0.00% 1.22% -1.21% 1.12% 1.08% 2.21%
<div class="lb-trans">1986-2 0.00% 1.22% -1.21% 1.12% 1.08% 2.21%
</div>1990-2 -1.06% 0.28% 0.30% 0.87% -0.65% -0.26%
<div class="lb-trans">1990-2 -1.06% 0.28% 0.30% 0.87% -0.65% -0.26%
</div>1994-2 0.01% 0.49% 0.06% -0.52% -0.56% -0.53%
<div class="lb-trans">1994-2 0.01% 0.49% 0.06% -0.52% -0.56% -0.53%
</div>1998-2 0.00% 0.26% 0.91% -0.37% 0.57% 1.38%
<div class="lb-trans">1998-2 0.00% 0.26% 0.91% -0.37% 0.57% 1.38%
</div>2002-2 1.43% -0.40% 0.99% -0.18% -1.10% 0.75%
<div class="lb-trans">2002-2 1.43% -0.40% 0.99% -0.18% -1.10% 0.75%
</div>Avg 0.13% 0.37% 0.21% 0.18% -0.13% 0.71%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.13% 0.37% 0.21% 0.18% -0.13% 0.71%
</div>2006-2 -0.33% 1.00% 0.35% 0.73% -0.17% 1.59%
<div class="lb-trans">2006-2 -0.33% 1.00% 0.35% 0.73% -0.17% 1.59%
</div>2010-2 0.00% 1.80% 0.42% 0.66% 0.22% 3.10%
<div class="lb-trans">2010-2 0.00% 1.80% 0.42% 0.66% 0.22% 3.10%
</div>2014-2 0.00% 0.12% -0.65% 0.60% -0.19% -0.13%
<div class="lb-trans">2014-2 0.00% 0.12% -0.65% 0.60% -0.19% -0.13%
</div>2018-2 1.39% 0.26% 1.34% 1.21% 0.04% 4.24%
<div class="lb-trans">2018-2 1.39% 0.26% 1.34% 1.21% 0.04% 4.24%
</div>2022-2 -0.38% 1.58% 0.09% -2.12% -0.72% -1.55%
<div class="lb-trans">2022-2 -0.38% 1.58% 0.09% -2.12% -0.72% -1.55%
</div>Avg 0.23% 0.95% 0.31% 0.22% -0.16% 1.45%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.23% 0.95% 0.31% 0.22% -0.16% 1.45%
</div>SPX summary for PY2 1954 - 2022
<div class="lb-trans">SPX PY2 1954 - 2022 汇总
</div>Avg -0.16% 0.24% 0.19% 0.07% -0.06% 0.33%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 -0.16% 0.24% 0.19% 0.07% -0.06% 0.33%
</div>Win% 23% 61% 61% 56% 33% 44%
<div class="lb-trans">胜率 23% 61% 61% 56% 33% 44%
</div>SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2025
<div class="lb-trans">SPX 所有年份 1953 - 2025 汇总
</div>Avg 0.11% 0.01% 0.22% -0.06% -0.05% 0.21%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.11% 0.01% 0.22% -0.06% -0.05% 0.21%
</div>Win% 49% 56% 62% 47% 45% 56%
<div class="lb-trans">胜率 49% 56% 62% 47% 45% 56%
</div>Conclusion
<div class="lb-trans">结论
</div>The high level of new lows continues to be worrisome.
<div class="lb-trans">新低的高水平仍然令人担忧。
</div>The strongest sectors last week were Utilities and Precious Metals (up from the bottom last wee) while the weakest were Internet (for the 5th week in a row and Banks.
<div class="lb-trans">上周表现最强的行业是公用事业和贵金属（从上周底部反弹），而表现最弱的是互联网（连续第五周）和银行。
</div>I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday February 20 than they were on Friday February 13
<div class="lb-trans">我预计主要指数在 2 月 20 日星期五会高于 2 月 13 日星期五的水平。
</div>Last week's positive forecast was a miss.
<div class="lb-trans">上周的积极预测未能实现。
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>More By This Author:
<div class="lb-trans">更多来自此作者的内容：
</div>Technical Market Report For February 7, 2026
<div class="lb-trans">2026 年 2 月 7 日技术市场报告
</div>Technical Market Report As Of Jan. 31
<div class="lb-trans">截至 1 月 31 日的技术市场报告
</div>Technical Market Report For January 24, 2026
<div class="lb-trans">2026 年 1 月 24 日技术市场报告
</div>

Technical Market Report For February 14, 2026

- 道琼斯工业平均指数上周一收于历史新高。  
- 纳斯达克新低与新高的趋势变化引发关注。  
- 预计到 2 月 20 日，主要指数将高于 2 月 13 日水平。

2026年2月14日技术市场报告