<p>[新加坡] 东南亚的风险投资市场在过去几年经历了一些挑战。</p>
<p>DealStreetAsia 最近的一篇文章显示，该地区的交易量在过去八个季度中持续下降，尽管在过去两三个月中似乎有所稳定。</p>
<p>对于印度尼西亚来说，情况看起来更加严峻，交易价值从 2021 年下半年约 54 亿美元的峰值滑落至 2025 年上半年不足 1 亿美元。</p>
<p>需要明确的是，这并不意味着该国不再有任何投资活动。但机会显著少于以前。</p>
<p>这种低迷是真实存在的，但并非没有理由。如果要推测这种状况的主要原因，那就是投资者信心——或者说缺乏信心。</p>
<h2>投资者信心的削弱</h2>
<p>有三个主要问题导致了这一情况。</p>
<p>首先，关于该国初创企业在治理方面的严重失职和缺乏诚信的消息，导致了显著的价值损失，从而削弱了信心。</p>
<p>这种失败可能源于领导能力的无能，或者创始人故意欺诈投资者。在过去几年中，印度尼西亚金融科技行业中都有许多这样的案例。</p>
<p>其中一个案例导致了数百万美元的支付失败损失，原因是超过 250 笔虚假贷款，而另一个案例则导致一位创始人在涉嫌挪用数百万美元后逃避逮捕超过一年，最终被国际刑警逮捕。</p>
<p>然而，没有哪个案例能与 eFishery 的丑闻相提并论，该事件中的复杂计划在多年内欺诈了许多主要投资者。</p>
<p>其次，印度尼西亚一直在应对持续的宏观经济疲软。生活必需品的通货膨胀和更高的借贷成本减少了中低收入阶层的购买力。</p>
<p>中央统计局的数据表明，中产阶级从 2019 年的 5700 万人缩减至 2024 年的 4800 万人以上，许多工人仍集中在低收入行业。</p>
<p>这导致不同消费群体的支付能力差异更加明显和扩大。</p>
<p>第三，与其他一些市场相比，印度尼西亚尚未显示出可持续的退出。</p>
<p>自 2015 年 Gojek 崛起以来，印度尼西亚的风险投资市场风头无两，至今仅有不到五个主要的首次公开募股（IPO）。GoTo 的股价自那时以来暴跌，目前约为 2022 年上市时的 16%。</p>
<p>这使得包括全球投资者在内的许多投资者开始质疑他们在该国投资的信心。</p>
<p>尽管如此，仍然存在机会。投资者需要适应变化的风向。</p>
<h2>投资论点</h2>
<p>随着本土纯软件解决方案继续寻找市场契合点，而人工智能（AI）解决方案落后于同行，投资论点需要重新校准，以适应该国的内在优势。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚仍然是东南亚最大的经济体，拥有近 3 亿的年轻快速增长的人口，平均年龄为 30 岁。</p>
<p>它也是煤炭、矿产和棕榈油的强大出口国——在 2024 年占国内生产总值的 20% 以上——消费仍占国内生产总值的一半以上。该国的消费者是一个不可忽视的力量。</p>
<p>因此，印度尼西亚的投资论点应以其人民为中心。消费零售、金融服务和医疗保健等领域脱颖而出，成为机会的领域。</p>
<p>尤其是消费领域，涵盖范围广泛，仍然受到强烈关注。</p>
<p>尽管购买力减弱，但有效服务于低收入群体的企业仍然可以蓬勃发展。几个低价食品和饮料企业的成功就是证明。</p>
<p>在零售方面，年轻消费者仍然愿意几乎冲动地花钱在体验和个人满足上。例如，一个设计良好的零售店体验，如果在社交媒体上引起共鸣并吸引 Z 世代，可以吸引大量客流。</p>
<p>在直销个人护理领域，我们观察到一些具有强大创始人的公司能够在竞争激烈的产品海洋中识别机会。</p>
<p>例如，当本土品牌在化妆品领域激烈竞争时，几家公司识别出防晒霜作为一个增长的子领域。他们从第一 mover 的优势中获利。</p>
<p>此外，支持这些本土品牌的供应链基础设施参与者也受益并共同成长。</p>
<p>随着中产阶级继续承受压力，具有更强内在风险管理的金融解决方案——如担保贷款——已成为更健康的选择。</p>
<p>过去，大多数金融科技初创企业专注于无担保贷款，并依赖高利率来抵消不良贷款和因欺诈造成的损失。</p>
<p>现在，我们看到更负责任的贷款实践的回归，如典当行和其他形式的担保贷款，以及与银行生态系统的更紧密合作。</p>
<p>这使得资产负债表更加稳健，减少了不良表现或欺诈事件的发生。</p>
<h2>服务不足的医疗保健领域</h2>
<p>随着印度尼西亚人口的持续增长和老龄化，其服务不足的医疗保健领域——医院床位与人口比例远低于区域同行——提供了大量的增长投资机会。</p>
<p>以诊所形式出现的小型提供者数量激增，专注于定制化服务——如女性健康和产科，或美容和整形护理——正在吸引机构投资者的关注。诊所模式允许更低的资本负担和更广泛的覆盖。</p>
<p>与此同时，现代化和数字化表现不佳的医院有着充足的机会，以满足主要大都市地区之外日益增长的医疗服务需求。</p>
<p>这得益于印度尼西亚的医疗改革和全民健康覆盖体系的推动。</p>
<p>对于能够进一步扩展投资范围的投资者来说，天然资源领域相邻的投资机会——如电动车、电池和替代能源——也可以进行探索。</p>
<h2>回归牛市周期</h2>
<p>尽管面临挑战，印度尼西亚正在经历的事情是周期性的。人们可能会问：我们如何回到过去的牛市周期？</p>
<p>我相信有三个核心因素需要具备，以朝着这个方向发展并恢复投资者信心。</p>
<p>第一个是强大且切实可行的催化剂——这与我们在移动革命期间看到的情况相似，移动革命成为了电子商务和应用平台颠覆的基础，几乎是在十年前。也许我们尚未看到人工智能作为这里的驱动力。</p>
<p>第二，早期投资者必须继续支持种子级企业，以鼓励创新和潜在的企业家。</p>
<p>这将创造一个良性循环，使更多个人愿意承担商业风险并吸引更多投资资金，从而进一步吸引更多企业家，依此类推。</p>
<p>第三，政府需要识别一个核心行业并将其作为支柱，以激发创新的火花。然后，私人和机构投资者可以助燃这一火焰。</p>
<p>邻国已经在半导体供应链和制造基础设施的背景下这样做了。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚无疑正经历困难时期。但即使在这个熊市周期中，仍然有投资机会的领域等待被发现，在信心完全恢复和下一个牛市周期开始之前。</p>
<p><strong>作者是 Vertex Ventures 东南亚和印度的合伙人</strong></p>

<p>东南亚的风险投资市场，特别是印度尼西亚，面临着重大挑战，交易金额从 2021 年底的 54 亿美元骤降至 2025 年初的不足 1 亿美元。由于治理问题、宏观经济疲软以及缺乏可持续的退出机制，投资者信心受到侵蚀，导致了这一下降。然而，在消费零售、金融服务和医疗保健等领域仍然存在机会，因为印度尼西亚年轻的人口和强大的消费基础继续展现出增长潜力。投资者被鼓励调整策略，专注于这些内在优势</p>

<p>[SINGAPORE] South-east Asia’s venture market has gone through some challenging times in the past several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[新加坡] 东南亚的风险投资市场在过去几年经历了一些挑战。</p>
</div><p>A recent article by DealStreetAsia showed that deal volumes across the region have been declining for the past eight quarters, though they appear to have stabilised somewhat in the last two or three.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DealStreetAsia 最近的一篇文章显示，该地区的交易量在过去八个季度中持续下降，尽管在过去两三个月中似乎有所稳定。</p>
</div><p>The picture looks bleaker for Indonesia, where deal value slid from a peak of around US$5.4 billion in the second half of 2021 to less than US$100 million in the first half of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于印度尼西亚来说，情况看起来更加严峻，交易价值从 2021 年下半年约 54 亿美元的峰值滑落至 2025 年上半年不足 1 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, this does not mean that there is no longer any investment activity in the country. But the opportunities are drastically fewer than before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，这并不意味着该国不再有任何投资活动。但机会显著少于以前。</p>
</div><p>The malaise is real, but not without good reason. If one were to surmise the overarching cause for this condition, it would be investor confidence – or the lack thereof.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种低迷是真实存在的，但并非没有理由。如果要推测这种状况的主要原因，那就是投资者信心——或者说缺乏信心。</p>
</div><h2>Eroded investor confidence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者信心的削弱</h2>
</div><p>Three main issues have contributed to this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有三个主要问题导致了这一情况。</p>
</div><p>First, news of serious breaches in governance and a lack of integrity among the country’s startups that caused significant value destruction have eroded confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，关于该国初创企业在治理方面的严重失职和缺乏诚信的消息，导致了显著的价值损失，从而削弱了信心。</p>
</div><p>Such failures could stem from either ineptitude in leadership, or intent by founders to defraud investors. There were many instances of both in the Indonesian financial technology sector in the last several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种失败可能源于领导能力的无能，或者创始人故意欺诈投资者。在过去几年中，印度尼西亚金融科技行业中都有许多这样的案例。</p>
</div><p>One case resulted in millions of failed payment losses due to more than 250 fictitious loans, while another led to the Interpol arrest of a founder who managed to evade capture for more than a year after allegedly siphoning millions of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中一个案例导致了数百万美元的支付失败损失，原因是超过 250 笔虚假贷款，而另一个案例则导致一位创始人在涉嫌挪用数百万美元后逃避逮捕超过一年，最终被国际刑警逮捕。</p>
</div><p>However, none could rival the scale and sophistication of the eFishery saga, in which a complex scheme defrauded many major investors over multiple years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，没有哪个案例能与 eFishery 的丑闻相提并论，该事件中的复杂计划在多年内欺诈了许多主要投资者。</p>
</div><p>Second, Indonesia has been grappling with continued macroeconomic weakness. Inflation in necessities and higher costs of borrowing have reduced middle and lower-class purchasing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，印度尼西亚一直在应对持续的宏观经济疲软。生活必需品的通货膨胀和更高的借贷成本减少了中低收入阶层的购买力。</p>
</div><p>Data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed that the middle class shrank from 57 million people in 2019 to just over 48 million people in 2024, with many workers still concentrated in low-income sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央统计局的数据表明，中产阶级从 2019 年的 5700 万人缩减至 2024 年的 4800 万人以上，许多工人仍集中在低收入行业。</p>
</div><p>This has led to more evident and widening variance in different consumer segments’ ability to pay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这导致不同消费群体的支付能力差异更加明显和扩大。</p>
</div><p>Third, compared with some other markets, Indonesia has yet to show sustainable exits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，与其他一些市场相比，印度尼西亚尚未显示出可持续的退出。</p>
</div><p>Since the rise of Gojek, which took Indonesia’s venture capital market by storm in 2015, there have been fewer than five major initial public offerings (IPOs). GoTo’s share price has since collapsed, and is now roughly 16 per cent of its debut price when it went public in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2015 年 Gojek 崛起以来，印度尼西亚的风险投资市场风头无两，至今仅有不到五个主要的首次公开募股（IPO）。GoTo 的股价自那时以来暴跌，目前约为 2022 年上市时的 16%。</p>
</div><p>This has caused many investors, including global ones, to question their conviction in investing in the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得包括全球投资者在内的许多投资者开始质疑他们在该国投资的信心。</p>
</div><p>All that said, there are still opportunities. Investors will need to adapt as the winds of change continue to blow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，仍然存在机会。投资者需要适应变化的风向。</p>
</div><h2>The investment thesis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资论点</h2>
</div><p>As home-grown pure software solutions continue to search for market fit and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions lag behind peers, the investment thesis will need to be recalibrated towards the country’s inherent strengths.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着本土纯软件解决方案继续寻找市场契合点，而人工智能（AI）解决方案落后于同行，投资论点需要重新校准，以适应该国的内在优势。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia is still the largest economy in South-east Asia, with a young, fast-growing population of almost 300 million and a median age of 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚仍然是东南亚最大的经济体，拥有近 3 亿的年轻快速增长的人口，平均年龄为 30 岁。</p>
</div><p>It is also a strong exporter of coal, minerals and palm oil – accounting for more than 20 per cent of gross domestic product in 2024 – and consumption continues to account for more than half of GDP. The country’s consumers are a force to be reckoned with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它也是煤炭、矿产和棕榈油的强大出口国——在 2024 年占国内生产总值的 20% 以上——消费仍占国内生产总值的一半以上。该国的消费者是一个不可忽视的力量。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the Indonesia thesis should centre on its people. Consumer retail, financial services and healthcare, among others, stand out as sectors of opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，印度尼西亚的投资论点应以其人民为中心。消费零售、金融服务和医疗保健等领域脱颖而出，成为机会的领域。</p>
</div><p>The consumer sector, in particular, encapsulates a wide range of coverage and continues to be of strong interest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尤其是消费领域，涵盖范围广泛，仍然受到强烈关注。</p>
</div><p>Although purchasing power has weakened, businesses which effectively serve the lower-income segment can still thrive. The evidence is in the success of several low-priced food and beverage establishments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管购买力减弱，但有效服务于低收入群体的企业仍然可以蓬勃发展。几个低价食品和饮料企业的成功就是证明。</p>
</div><p>In retail, young shoppers are still willing to spend almost impulsively on experiences and personal gratification. For instance, a well-designed retail store experience that appeals on social media and resonates with the Gen Z demographic can attract sizeable foot traffic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在零售方面，年轻消费者仍然愿意几乎冲动地花钱在体验和个人满足上。例如，一个设计良好的零售店体验，如果在社交媒体上引起共鸣并吸引 Z 世代，可以吸引大量客流。</p>
</div><p>In the direct-to-consumer personal care segment, we have observed companies with formidable founders who were able to identify opportunities in a highly competitive sea of offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在直销个人护理领域，我们观察到一些具有强大创始人的公司能够在竞争激烈的产品海洋中识别机会。</p>
</div><p>For example, when home-grown brands were competing heavily in cosmetics, several companies identified sunscreen as a growing sub-segment. They profited from their first-mover advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，当本土品牌在化妆品领域激烈竞争时，几家公司识别出防晒霜作为一个增长的子领域。他们从第一 mover 的优势中获利。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, the supply-chain infrastructure players supporting these local brands also benefit and grow in tandem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，支持这些本土品牌的供应链基础设施参与者也受益并共同成长。</p>
</div><p>As the middle class continues to come under pressure, financial solutions with stronger inherent risk management – such as secured lending – have become a healthier go-to solution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着中产阶级继续承受压力，具有更强内在风险管理的金融解决方案——如担保贷款——已成为更健康的选择。</p>
</div><p>In the past, most fintech startups focused on unsecured lending and relied on steep rates to offset non-performing loans and provisioned losses from fraud.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去，大多数金融科技初创企业专注于无担保贷款，并依赖高利率来抵消不良贷款和因欺诈造成的损失。</p>
</div><p>Now, we are seeing a return to more responsible lending practices, such as pawnshops and other forms of secured lending, as well as a closer collaboration with the banking ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，我们看到更负责任的贷款实践的回归，如典当行和其他形式的担保贷款，以及与银行生态系统的更紧密合作。</p>
</div><p>This allows for a more solid balance sheet, and minimises events of non-performance or fraud.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得资产负债表更加稳健，减少了不良表现或欺诈事件的发生。</p>
</div><h2>Underserved healthcare sector</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>服务不足的医疗保健领域</h2>
</div><p>As Indonesia’s population continues to grow and age, its underserved healthcare sector – where the hospital bed-to-population ratio remains well below that of regional peers – offers a trove of growth investment opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着印度尼西亚人口的持续增长和老龄化，其服务不足的医疗保健领域——医院床位与人口比例远低于区域同行——提供了大量的增长投资机会。</p>
</div><p>There is a proliferation of smaller footprint providers in the form of clinics which specialise in bespoke propositions – such as female health and maternity, or aesthetic and cosmetic care – that are gaining institutional investor attention. The clinic format allows for a lower capital load and wider coverage offering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以诊所形式出现的小型提供者数量激增，专注于定制化服务——如女性健康和产科，或美容和整形护理——正在吸引机构投资者的关注。诊所模式允许更低的资本负担和更广泛的覆盖。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, there is ample opportunity in the modernisation and digitalisation of underperforming hospitals, to capture the growing need for healthcare services outside major metropolitan areas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，现代化和数字化表现不佳的医院有着充足的机会，以满足主要大都市地区之外日益增长的医疗服务需求。</p>
</div><p>This rides on the tailwind of Indonesia’s healthcare reform and universal health coverage system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这得益于印度尼西亚的医疗改革和全民健康覆盖体系的推动。</p>
</div><p>For investors who can expand their mandate even more, investment opportunities adjacent to the natural resource sectors – such as electric vehicles, batteries and alternative energy – could also be explored.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于能够进一步扩展投资范围的投资者来说，天然资源领域相邻的投资机会——如电动车、电池和替代能源——也可以进行探索。</p>
</div><h2>Returning to the bull cycle</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>回归牛市周期</h2>
</div><p>Despite the challenges, what is occurring in Indonesia is cyclical. One may ask: How do we return to the bull cycle of old?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管面临挑战，印度尼西亚正在经历的事情是周期性的。人们可能会问：我们如何回到过去的牛市周期？</p>
</div><p>I believe there are three core factors that need to be in place to head in that direction and restore investor confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信有三个核心因素需要具备，以朝着这个方向发展并恢复投资者信心。</p>
</div><p>The first is a strong and practical catalyst – not unlike what we saw during the mobile revolution, which became the foundation for e-commerce and application platform disruption almost a decade ago. Perhaps we are yet to see AI as a driving force here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个是强大且切实可行的催化剂——这与我们在移动革命期间看到的情况相似，移动革命成为了电子商务和应用平台颠覆的基础，几乎是在十年前。也许我们尚未看到人工智能作为这里的驱动力。</p>
</div><p>Second, early-stage investors must continue supporting seed-level businesses to encourage innovation and would-be entrepreneurs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二，早期投资者必须继续支持种子级企业，以鼓励创新和潜在的企业家。</p>
</div><p>This will create a virtuous circle whereby more individuals are willing to take business risks and attract more investment money, which will further attract more entrepreneurs, and so on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将创造一个良性循环，使更多个人愿意承担商业风险并吸引更多投资资金，从而进一步吸引更多企业家，依此类推。</p>
</div><p>Third, the government needs to identify a core sector and anchor it to kindle the spark of innovation. Then, private and institutional investors can stoke the flames.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，政府需要识别一个核心行业并将其作为支柱，以激发创新的火花。然后，私人和机构投资者可以助燃这一火焰。</p>
</div><p>Neighbouring countries are already doing this, in the context of semiconductor supply chain and manufacturing infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>邻国已经在半导体供应链和制造基础设施的背景下这样做了。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia is undeniably going through difficult times. But even in this bear cycle, there are pockets of investment opportunities to be discovered, before confidence is fully restored and the next bull cycle starts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚无疑正经历困难时期。但即使在这个熊市周期中，仍然有投资机会的领域等待被发现，在信心完全恢复和下一个牛市周期开始之前。</p>
</div><p><strong>The writer is partner at Vertex Ventures South-east Asia and India</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>作者是 Vertex Ventures 东南亚和印度的合伙人</strong></p>
</div>

超越低谷：风险投资公司如何投资于印度尼西亚的韧性