<p>全球安全格局已经从一种可控的紧张状态转变为一种未映射的波动状态。我们正处于两个重大事件的交汇点：传统军备控制架构的最终崩溃和一种将全球稳定视为可谈判资产而非永久固定的高风险 “和平委员会” 外交的出现。</p>
<p>本月最令人不安的发展发生在 2 月 5 日午夜。美国和俄罗斯在 50 年来首次在没有任何法律约束的情况下运作其核武库。《新削减战略武器条约》的到期，标志着半个世纪战略防护措施的最后残余，实际上使国际社会失去了视线。尽管莫斯科在最后时刻提出了一年自愿上限的提议，政府决定让条约失效，这一举动标志着一种激进的赌注。</p>
<p>华盛顿寄希望于一个没有问责的真空能够提供必要的 “最大压力”，以迫使对手达成新的、更具攻击性的协议。然而，核威慑并不是企业收购；它是一个数学可预测性的系统。通过移除条约的 “眼睛”——特别是那些验证 1550 枚弹头和 700 个投送系统状态的短期检查和数据交换——我们用偏执取代了验证。</p>
<p>在这种核不确定性的背景下，阿曼的场景显得超现实，但真正的重心转向了华盛顿。伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉赫奇在离开马斯喀特时形容谈判 “暂时结束”，但称之为 “良好的开端”。然而，世界正在处理特朗普总统与内塔尼亚胡总理之间高风险白宫会议的直接后果。内塔尼亚胡因对马斯喀特谈判的 “焦虑” 将访问提前了一周，报道称他已施压要求将任何协议的扩展不仅包括铀浓缩，还包括彻底拆除伊朗的弹道导弹计划。</p>
<p>美国海军海军上将布拉德·库珀身着全套军装与史蒂夫·维特科夫和贾里德·库什纳并肩而立，凸显了传统外交的转变。尽管特朗普总统将讨论形容为 “非常好”，并声称伊朗 “非常渴望达成协议”，但现实却愈发军事化。特朗普正在向该地区部署第二个航母打击群，实际上将 “和平委员会” 转变为 “战争委员会” 的舞台，如果谈判失败。</p>
<p>就在代表团收拾行李之际，总统签署了一项行政命令，将全球供应链武器化。自 2 月 7 日起，美国建立了一种机制，对任何继续与伊朗进行贸易的国家征收 25% 的关税。此举旨在切断伊朗政权的剩余生存线，特别是针对与中国的 140 亿美元贸易和与伊拉克的 105 亿美元贸易。然而，连锁反应可能适得其反。</p>
<p>北京对《新削减战略武器条约》的到期和美国矿产库存计划感到沮丧，因此不太可能将 25% 的关税视为三方核框架的邀请。同时，地区稳定面临风险，像土耳其和阿联酋这样的伙伴在华盛顿市场和自身地区经济现实之间面临不可能的选择。</p>
<p>这种 “悬崖边缘谈判” 策略的危险在 2 月 3 日得到了体现。伊朗的 Shahed-139 无人机被 F-35C 在 USS Abraham Lincoln 附近拦截，成为没有防护措施的世界的警告。政府在几天前于关键矿产部长会议上启动的 “项目金库” 突显了确保供应链的愿望，计划为新的竞争时代建立 120 亿美元的库存。然而，重新启动核军备竞赛是资源的转移，也是对人类生命的风险，任何矿产财富都无法抵消。我们正在用不可预测和指数级的无节制扩张成本来交换可预测的军备控制成本。</p>
<p>在核时代，真正的领导力历史上是通过安静、技术性的工作来维护将世界上最危险的武器锁在钥匙下来定义的。今天，我们用 “交易” 的直觉取代了那把钥匙。世界屏息以待。</p>
<p>如果下一轮谈判未能在不破坏马斯喀特取得的进展的情况下满足内塔尼亚胡的新 “红线”，美国将发现自己处于本世纪最危险的境地：中东没有协议，与俄罗斯没有条约，以及因 25% 关税引发的全球贸易战。我们为了 “完美” 协议放弃了信息。我们只能希望在找到另一种锁门方式之前，风不会开始吹。</p>
<p><em>Imran Khalid 是一名医生，拥有国际关系硕士学位。</em></p>

<p>全球安全形势正朝着不稳定的方向发展，因为美国和俄罗斯在《新削减战略武器条约》到期后，首次在没有核限制的情况下运作。特朗普总统正在对伊朗采取激进的外交政策，同时部署军事资产并对与伊朗进行贸易的国家征收关税。这一策略可能会使地区伙伴关系不稳定，并可能导致新一轮军备竞赛。正在进行的谈判结果仍不确定，潜在后果包括中东协议的缺失、与俄罗斯没有条约以及全球贸易战</p>

<p>The global security landscape has shifted from a state of managed tension to one of unmapped volatility. We find ourselves at the intersection of two seismic events: the final collapse of the traditional arms control architecture and the emergence of a high-stakes “Board of Peace” diplomacy that treats global stability as a negotiable asset rather than a permanent fixture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球安全格局已经从一种可控的紧张状态转变为一种未映射的波动状态。我们正处于两个重大事件的交汇点：传统军备控制架构的最终崩溃和一种将全球稳定视为可谈判资产而非永久固定的高风险 “和平委员会” 外交的出现。</p>
</div><p>The most chilling development of the month occurred at midnight on Feb. 5. For the first time in 50 years, the U.S. and Russia are operating without a single legally binding limit on their nuclear arsenals. The expiration of the New START treaty, representing the final vestige of a half-century of strategic guardrails, has effectively blinded the international community. The administration’s decision to let the treaty lapse, despite Moscow’s last-minute offer for a one-year voluntary ceiling, signals a radical bet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月最令人不安的发展发生在 2 月 5 日午夜。美国和俄罗斯在 50 年来首次在没有任何法律约束的情况下运作其核武库。《新削减战略武器条约》的到期，标志着半个世纪战略防护措施的最后残余，实际上使国际社会失去了视线。尽管莫斯科在最后时刻提出了一年自愿上限的提议，政府决定让条约失效，这一举动标志着一种激进的赌注。</p>
</div><p>Washington is banking on the idea that a vacuum of accountability provides the “maximum pressure” necessary to coerce rivals into a new, more aggressive pact. However, nuclear deterrence is not a corporate takeover; it is a system of mathematical predictability. By removing the “eyes” of the treaty — specifically the short-notice inspections and data exchanges that verified the status of 1,550 warheads and 700 delivery systems — we have replaced verification with paranoia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿寄希望于一个没有问责的真空能够提供必要的 “最大压力”，以迫使对手达成新的、更具攻击性的协议。然而，核威慑并不是企业收购；它是一个数学可预测性的系统。通过移除条约的 “眼睛”——特别是那些验证 1550 枚弹头和 700 个投送系统状态的短期检查和数据交换——我们用偏执取代了验证。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop of nuclear uncertainty, the scene in Oman has been surreal, but the real gravity shifted to Washington. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while departing Muscat, described the talks as “over for now” but a “good start.” However, the world is processing the immediate fallout of a high-stakes White House meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Netanyahu, who moved his visit up by a week out of “anxiety” over the Muscat talks, has reportedly pressed for a “no-brainer” expansion of any deal to include not just uranium enrichment, but a total dismantling of Iran’s ballistic missile program.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种核不确定性的背景下，阿曼的场景显得超现实，但真正的重心转向了华盛顿。伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉赫奇在离开马斯喀特时形容谈判 “暂时结束”，但称之为 “良好的开端”。然而，世界正在处理特朗普总统与内塔尼亚胡总理之间高风险白宫会议的直接后果。内塔尼亚胡因对马斯喀特谈判的 “焦虑” 将访问提前了一周，报道称他已施压要求将任何协议的扩展不仅包括铀浓缩，还包括彻底拆除伊朗的弹道导弹计划。</p>
</div><p>The presence of U.S. Navy Adm. Brad Cooper in full dress uniform alongside Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner underscores a departure from traditional diplomacy. While President Trump characterized the discussions as “very good” and claimed Iran “wants to make a deal very badly,” the reality is increasingly militarized. Trump is deploying of a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region, effectively turning the “Board of Peace” into a theater of “Board of War” if negotiations falter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国海军海军上将布拉德·库珀身着全套军装与史蒂夫·维特科夫和贾里德·库什纳并肩而立，凸显了传统外交的转变。尽管特朗普总统将讨论形容为 “非常好”，并声称伊朗 “非常渴望达成协议”，但现实却愈发军事化。特朗普正在向该地区部署第二个航母打击群，实际上将 “和平委员会” 转变为 “战争委员会” 的舞台，如果谈判失败。</p>
</div><p>Just as the delegations were packing their bags, the president signed an executive order that weaponizes the global supply chain. Effective Feb. 7, the U.S. established a mechanism to impose 25 percent tariffs on any country that continues to trade with Iran. This move aims to starve the Iranian regime of its remaining lifelines, specifically targeting the $14 billion in trade with China and the $10.5 billion with Iraq. However, the ripple effects are likely to be counterproductive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在代表团收拾行李之际，总统签署了一项行政命令，将全球供应链武器化。自 2 月 7 日起，美国建立了一种机制，对任何继续与伊朗进行贸易的国家征收 25% 的关税。此举旨在切断伊朗政权的剩余生存线，特别是针对与中国的 140 亿美元贸易和与伊拉克的 105 亿美元贸易。然而，连锁反应可能适得其反。</p>
</div><p>Beijing, already frustrated by the expiration of New START and the U.S. mineral stockpile initiative, is unlikely to view a 25 percent tariff as an invitation to a trilateral nuclear framework. Simultaneously, regional stability is at risk as partners like Turkey and the UAE face an impossible choice between Washington’s markets and their own regional economic realities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京对《新削减战略武器条约》的到期和美国矿产库存计划感到沮丧，因此不太可能将 25% 的关税视为三方核框架的邀请。同时，地区稳定面临风险，像土耳其和阿联酋这样的伙伴在华盛顿市场和自身地区经济现实之间面临不可能的选择。</p>
</div><p>The danger of this “negotiating from the brink” strategy was made manifest on Feb. 3. The intercept of an Iranian Shahed-139 drone by an F-35C near the USS Abraham Lincoln was a warning shot for a world without guardrails. The administration’s “Project Vault,” launched days ago at the Critical Minerals Ministerial, highlights the desire to secure supply chains with a $12 billion stockpile for a new era of competition. Yet, a renewed nuclear arms race is a diversion of resources and a risk to human life that no amount of mineral wealth can offset. We are trading the predictable cost of arms control for the unpredictable and exponential cost of an unrestrained buildup.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种 “悬崖边缘谈判” 策略的危险在 2 月 3 日得到了体现。伊朗的 Shahed-139 无人机被 F-35C 在 USS Abraham Lincoln 附近拦截，成为没有防护措施的世界的警告。政府在几天前于关键矿产部长会议上启动的 “项目金库” 突显了确保供应链的愿望，计划为新的竞争时代建立 120 亿美元的库存。然而，重新启动核军备竞赛是资源的转移，也是对人类生命的风险，任何矿产财富都无法抵消。我们正在用不可预测和指数级的无节制扩张成本来交换可预测的军备控制成本。</p>
</div><p>True leadership in the nuclear age has historically been defined by the quiet, technical work of maintaining the systems that keep the world’s most dangerous weapons under lock and key. Today, we have traded that key for the intuition of the “deal.” The world holds its breath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在核时代，真正的领导力历史上是通过安静、技术性的工作来维护将世界上最危险的武器锁在钥匙下来定义的。今天，我们用 “交易” 的直觉取代了那把钥匙。世界屏息以待。</p>
</div><p>If the next round of talks fails to accommodate Netanyahu’s new “red lines” without collapsing the progress made in Muscat, the U.S. will find itself in the most precarious position of the century: no deal in the Middle East, no treaty with Russia, and a global trade war triggered by 25 percent tariffs. We have surrendered information for the hope of a “perfect” deal. We can only hope the wind doesn’t start to blow before we find another way to lock the door.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果下一轮谈判未能在不破坏马斯喀特取得的进展的情况下满足内塔尼亚胡的新 “红线”，美国将发现自己处于本世纪最危险的境地：中东没有协议，与俄罗斯没有条约，以及因 25% 关税引发的全球贸易战。我们为了 “完美” 协议放弃了信息。我们只能希望在找到另一种锁门方式之前，风不会开始吹。</p>
</div><p><em>Imran Khalid is a physician and has a master’s degree in international relations.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Imran Khalid 是一名医生，拥有国际关系硕士学位。</em></p>
</div>

特朗普在直觉上孤注一掷，而核时钟正在倒计时