<p>澳大利亚储备银行的会议纪要显示，2 月份的加息是由于数据强于预期、广泛的持续通胀和金融条件的放松，决策者强调了对数据的依赖性，并没有预设的利率路径。</p>
<ul>
<li>董事会判断通胀和就业的风险 “发生了实质性变化”，加强了 2 月份加息的理由。</li>
<li>成员们一致认为，如果没有政策回应，通胀可能会在目标范围上方停留过长时间。</li>
<li>现金利率上调 25 个基点至 3.85%；虽然考虑过维持不变，但加息被认为是更强的选择。</li>
<li>没有预设的利率路径；未来的决策明确依赖于数据。</li>
<li>需求超过供应，劳动力市场仍然紧张，金融条件被视为有所放松。</li>
</ul>
<p>澳大利亚储备银行 2 月份会议的纪要显示，决策者在判断通胀和就业的风险朝着更令人担忧的方向变化后，得出加息是必要的结论。</p>
<p>董事会成员一致认为，如果没有政策回应，通胀可能会在 2-3% 的目标区间上方停留过长时间。自上次会议以来的数据普遍超出预期，进一步加强了对价格压力比预期更持久的担忧。</p>
<p>尽管讨论了将现金利率维持在 3.60% 的选项，但成员们最终一致同意将利率上调 25 个基点至 3.85%。这一决定是全体一致的，反映出如果政策设置保持不变，经济中的过剩需求不太可能得到纠正。</p>
<p>会议纪要强调，需求现在明显超过了总供应，并预计这种情况将持续一段时间。通胀被描述为广泛存在，压力在没有更紧政策的情况下不太可能得到缓解。劳动力市场条件也被视为稳固，向下风险有所减小，劳动力成本仍然较高。</p>
<p>金融条件是另一个关注点。成员们指出，金融条件已经大幅放松，银行放贷自由，信贷增长强劲。房价和抵押贷款加速增长，引发了对政策不再像预期那样限制的担忧，即使考虑到澳元最近的升值。</p>
<p>与此同时，董事会强调了不确定性。风险被认为在前景的两侧都存在，成员们承认无法对现金利率的任何特定未来路径有高度的信心。即将到来的数据将决定是否需要进一步收紧政策。</p>
<p>更广泛的全球背景也被视为比预期更具韧性，部分得益于强劲的人工智能相关投资。目前，澳大利亚储备银行的信息很明确：政策已经因持续的通胀而收紧，但下一步仍取决于数据的发展。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>当天的情况：</p>
<ul>
<li>澳大利亚储备银行一致决定加息 25 个基点，提升通胀预测，并暗示 2026 年将进一步收紧政策</li>
<li>澳大利亚储备银行行长 Bullock 表示，通胀压力过强</li>
<li>澳大利亚储备银行行长 Bullock 表示，澳大利亚经济处于良好状态</li>
</ul>
<p>自那时以来的情况：</p>
<ul>
<li>Bullock 表示，澳大利亚储备银行需要更紧的政策，因为产能限制提升了通胀风险</li>
<li>澳大利亚储备银行的 Hauser 表示，通胀过高，誓言采取行动以回归目标。澳元上涨。</li>
<li>Bullock：更高的澳元和利率将抑制需求，澳大利亚储备银行如有必要将开放更多加息</li>
<li>澳大利亚储备银行的 Sarah Hunter 表示，劳动力市场紧张，通胀将保持在目标之上</li>
</ul>

<p>澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）2 月份会议纪要显示，因通胀数据强于预期和金融条件缓和，决策者一致决定将现金利率上调 25 个基点至 3.85%。政策制定者指出，通胀风险发生了实质性变化，需求超过供应，劳动力市场紧张。董事会强调未来利率决策将依赖数据，承认经济前景的不确定性。RBA 的立场表明其致力于应对持续的通胀，如果有必要，可能会进一步收紧政策</p>

<p>RBA minutes show the February rate hike was driven by stronger-than-expected data, persistent broad-based inflation and easing financial conditions, with policymakers emphasising data dependence and no preset rate path.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳大利亚储备银行的会议纪要显示，2 月份的加息是由于数据强于预期、广泛的持续通胀和金融条件的放松，决策者强调了对数据的依赖性，并没有预设的利率路径。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Board judged risks to inflation and employment had “shifted materially”, strengthening case for February hike.</li>
<li>Members agreed inflation would likely stay above target too long without a policy response.</li>
<li>Cash rate lifted 25bp to 3.85%; holding was considered but hike deemed stronger option.</li>
<li>No preset path for rates; future decisions explicitly data dependent.</li>
<li>Demand exceeding supply, labour market still tight, financial conditions seen as having eased.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>董事会判断通胀和就业的风险 “发生了实质性变化”，加强了 2 月份加息的理由。</li>
<li>成员们一致认为，如果没有政策回应，通胀可能会在目标范围上方停留过长时间。</li>
<li>现金利率上调 25 个基点至 3.85%；虽然考虑过维持不变，但加息被认为是更强的选择。</li>
<li>没有预设的利率路径；未来的决策明确依赖于数据。</li>
<li>需求超过供应，劳动力市场仍然紧张，金融条件被视为有所放松。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting show policymakers concluded a rate rise was necessary after judging that risks to both inflation and employment had shifted in a more concerning direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳大利亚储备银行 2 月份会议的纪要显示，决策者在判断通胀和就业的风险朝着更令人担忧的方向变化后，得出加息是必要的结论。</p>
</div><p>Board members agreed that, absent a policy response, inflation would likely remain above the 2–3% target band for too long. Data since the prior meeting had generally surprised on the upside, reinforcing concerns that price pressures were proving more persistent than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>董事会成员一致认为，如果没有政策回应，通胀可能会在 2-3% 的目标区间上方停留过长时间。自上次会议以来的数据普遍超出预期，进一步加强了对价格压力比预期更持久的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Although the option of leaving the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% was discussed, members ultimately agreed that the stronger case was to lift rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The decision was unanimous and reflected a view that excess demand in the economy was unlikely to correct if policy settings remained unchanged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管讨论了将现金利率维持在 3.60% 的选项，但成员们最终一致同意将利率上调 25 个基点至 3.85%。这一决定是全体一致的，反映出如果政策设置保持不变，经济中的过剩需求不太可能得到纠正。</p>
</div><p>The minutes highlight that demand is now clearly exceeding aggregate supply and is forecast to do so for some time. Inflation was described as broad-based, with pressures unlikely to ease sufficiently without tighter policy. Labour market conditions were also seen as firm, with downside risks having diminished and labour costs still elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>会议纪要强调，需求现在明显超过了总供应，并预计这种情况将持续一段时间。通胀被描述为广泛存在，压力在没有更紧政策的情况下不太可能得到缓解。劳动力市场条件也被视为稳固，向下风险有所减小，劳动力成本仍然较高。</p>
</div><p>Financial conditions were another focus. Members noted that conditions had eased materially, with banks lending freely and credit growth strong. House prices and mortgage lending had accelerated, prompting concern that policy was no longer as restrictive as assumed, even accounting for the recent appreciation in the Australian dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融条件是另一个关注点。成员们指出，金融条件已经大幅放松，银行放贷自由，信贷增长强劲。房价和抵押贷款加速增长，引发了对政策不再像预期那样限制的担忧，即使考虑到澳元最近的升值。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the board stressed uncertainty. Risks were judged to be present on both sides of the outlook, and members acknowledged it was not possible to have a high degree of confidence in any specific future path for the cash rate. Incoming data would determine whether further tightening was required.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，董事会强调了不确定性。风险被认为在前景的两侧都存在，成员们承认无法对现金利率的任何特定未来路径有高度的信心。即将到来的数据将决定是否需要进一步收紧政策。</p>
</div><p>The broader global backdrop was also seen as more resilient than anticipated, supported in part by strong AI-related investment. For now, the RBA’s message is clear: policy has tightened in response to persistent inflation, but the next move remains contingent on how the data evolve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更广泛的全球背景也被视为比预期更具韧性，部分得益于强劲的人工智能相关投资。目前，澳大利亚储备银行的信息很明确：政策已经因持续的通胀而收紧，但下一步仍取决于数据的发展。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>From the day:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当天的情况：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>RBA unanimous 25bp hike, lifts inflation forecasts and signals more tightening in 2026</li>
<li>RBA governor Bullock says that inflation pulse is too strong</li>
<li>RBA governor Bullock says the Australian economy is in a good position</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>澳大利亚储备银行一致决定加息 25 个基点，提升通胀预测，并暗示 2026 年将进一步收紧政策</li>
<li>澳大利亚储备银行行长 Bullock 表示，通胀压力过强</li>
<li>澳大利亚储备银行行长 Bullock 表示，澳大利亚经济处于良好状态</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Plenty since then:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来的情况：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Bullock says RBA needs tighter policy as capacity constraints lift inflation risks</li>
<li>RBA’s Hauser says inflation too high, vows action to return to target. AUD jumps.</li>
<li>Bullock: higher AUD and rates will cool demand, RBA open to more hikes if needed</li>
<li>RBA’s Sarah Hunter says labour market tight, inflation to stay above target</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Bullock 表示，澳大利亚储备银行需要更紧的政策，因为产能限制提升了通胀风险</li>
<li>澳大利亚储备银行的 Hauser 表示，通胀过高，誓言采取行动以回归目标。澳元上涨。</li>
<li>Bullock：更高的澳元和利率将抑制需求，澳大利亚储备银行如有必要将开放更多加息</li>
<li>澳大利亚储备银行的 Sarah Hunter 表示，劳动力市场紧张，通胀将保持在目标之上</li>
</ul>
</div>

RBA 纪要显示，通胀风险在 2 月份加息前 ‘发生了重大变化’