<p>大型科技股、软件股票与 <strong>比特币</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 之间的紧密关联，曾在 2024 年和 2025 年推动了巨大的收益，如今已转变为同步的疲软，一位华尔街技术分析师表示，信息很简单：这始终是 “一个交易”。</p>
<p>在周二举行的客户网络研讨会上，22V Research 分析师 John Roque 展示了图表，显示过去两年 “七大奇迹” 公司、<strong>iShares 扩展科技 - 软件行业 ETF</strong> (NYSE: IGV) 和比特币之间的紧密跟踪关系。</p>
<p>“在我看来，信息相当明确。这都是一个交易，” Roque 说。</p>
<p>“在 2024 年和 2025 年，这都是一个交易，然后在 2025 年秋季的共同峰值中上涨，之后它们都一直疲软，当然，比特币和 IGV 的疲软程度更大。”</p>
<p><strong>iShares 扩展科技 - 软件行业 ETF IG</strong> V 最近交易价格接近 80 美元，远低于其 40 周移动平均线约 106 美元。</p>
<p>Roque 表示，该 ETF 的技术评分为零，如果超卖情况未能引发反弹，风险将向 60 美元倾斜。</p>
<p><strong>图表：七大奇迹（蓝线）、软件股票 IGV（白线）和比特币（橙线）</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17105824/image-351-1024x572.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17105824/image-351-1024x572.png"/></p>
<h2>比特币的$60,000 突破：接下来会怎样？</h2>
<p>比特币最近达到了 Roque 的$60,000 下行目标后开始稳定。但他并不相信这个底部会保持住。</p>
<p>“我的目标 60,000 在 2 月 6 日达成，” Roque 说。“我不会感到惊讶，我实际上在猜测这将突破 60,000，40,000 将是下一个目标。”</p>
<p>他将当前的形势置于历史背景中。</p>
<p>自 2017 年以来，比特币的主要周期性底部出现在资产交易价格分别低于其 200 日移动平均线 52%、44% 和 55% 时。截至 2 月中旬，比特币的价格大约低于该长期趋势线 32%。</p>
<p>这一差距表明——至少从历史标准来看——下跌可能尚未结束。</p>
<p>“它可以反弹，但我是卖方，” Roque 说，并补充道比特币图表类似于教科书式的头肩顶形态。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17115157/image-357-1024x572.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17115157/image-357-1024x572.png"/></p>
<h2>比特币熊市可能有多深？</h2>
<p>自 2011 年以来，比特币经历了五次主要的熊市，回撤幅度分别为 82%、86%、84%、72% 和 75%。平均下降幅度约为 80%。最小的下跌幅度为 72%。</p>
<p>如果从最近的高点应用 72% 的回撤，意味着潜在的下行目标接近$35,000。</p>
<p>Roque 关注$40,000 作为低于$60,000 的更实际水平——但无论如何，历史模板表明如果周期以类似方式进行，仍有进一步疲软的空间。</p>
<p>看跌的技术形势延伸至 <strong>Strategy Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR)，前身为 MicroStrategy，已成为比特币的杠杆代理。</p>
<p>Roque 对该股票的初始下行目标为$100。它在盘中最低触及$104 后反弹。</p>
<p>“我最初的下行目标是 100，” 他说。“我认为这个数字将被证明过于乐观。如果它跌到 20，我不会感到惊讶。”</p>
<p>他承认$20 可能听起来极端，但表示该股票相对于标准普尔 500 指数的相对表现已急剧转为负面。</p>
<p>上一次 Strategy 显示出类似的相对疲软时，该股票最终遭遇了 90% 的绝对下跌。</p>
<p>根据公司数据，Strategy 持有超过 717,000 个比特币，平均购买价格为$76,000，总成本约为 545 亿美元。</p>
<p>在最近接近$68,500 的价格下，这些持有的价值刚好低于 490 亿美元——意味着未实现损失约为 55 亿美元。</p>
<p>如果比特币果断跌破$60,000 并向$40,000 趋势，Strategy 的资产负债表和股权估值的压力可能会迅速加剧。</p>
<p><em>照片：Shutterstock</em></p>

MARA

<p>一位华尔街分析师指出，巨头科技、软件股票与比特币之间存在强烈的相关性，这种相关性已从 2024-2025 年的上涨转变为同步疲软。iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF（IGV）目前的交易价格低于其移动平均线，技术评分为零。比特币最近达到了 60,000 美元的下行目标，但预计将进一步下跌至 40,000 美元。分析师还警告，由于其比特币持有，Strategy Inc.（前身为 MicroStrategy）可能面临重大损失，如果比特币的价值继续下跌，将承受压力</p>

<p>A tight correlation between mega-cap tech, software stocks and <strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) that fueled massive gains in 2024 and 2025 has now flipped into synchronized weakness, and one Wall Street technical analyst says the message is simple: it was always &#34;one trade.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型科技股、软件股票与 <strong>比特币</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 之间的紧密关联，曾在 2024 年和 2025 年推动了巨大的收益，如今已转变为同步的疲软，一位华尔街技术分析师表示，信息很简单：这始终是 “一个交易”。</p>
</div><p>In a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, 22V Research analyst John Roque laid out charts showing the Magnificent Seven, the <strong>iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF</strong> (NYSE: IGV), and Bitcoin tracking one another closely over the past two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周二举行的客户网络研讨会上，22V Research 分析师 John Roque 展示了图表，显示过去两年 “七大奇迹” 公司、<strong>iShares 扩展科技 - 软件行业 ETF</strong> (NYSE: IGV) 和比特币之间的紧密跟踪关系。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It seems to me that the message is fairly clear. It's all one trade,&#34; Roque said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在我看来，信息相当明确。这都是一个交易，” Roque 说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It was all one trade in 2024 and 2025, and then as it rallied into the coincident peaks in the autumn of 2025, and they've all been weak since, but of course, Bitcoin and the IGV have been weaker.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在 2024 年和 2025 年，这都是一个交易，然后在 2025 年秋季的共同峰值中上涨，之后它们都一直疲软，当然，比特币和 IGV 的疲软程度更大。”</p>
</div><p>The <strong>iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IG</strong> V recently traded near $80, well below its 40-week moving average around $106.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>iShares 扩展科技 - 软件行业 ETF IG</strong> V 最近交易价格接近 80 美元，远低于其 40 周移动平均线约 106 美元。</p>
</div><p>Roque said the ETF's technical score is zero, with risk toward $60 if oversold conditions fail to spark a bounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Roque 表示，该 ETF 的技术评分为零，如果超卖情况未能引发反弹，风险将向 60 美元倾斜。</p>
</div><p><strong>Chart: Magnificent Seven (Blue Line), Software Stocks IGV (White) and Bitcoin (Orange)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>图表：七大奇迹（蓝线）、软件股票 IGV（白线）和比特币（橙线）</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17105824/image-351-1024x572.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17105824/image-351-1024x572.png"/></p>
<h2>Bitcoin's $60,000 Break: What's Next?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币的$60,000 突破：接下来会怎样？</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin recently hit Roque's $60,000 downside target before stabilizing. But he's not convinced the floor will hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币最近达到了 Roque 的$60,000 下行目标后开始稳定。但他并不相信这个底部会保持住。</p>
</div><p>&#34;My target of 60,000 was hit on February 6th,&#34; Roque said. &#34;It would not surprise me, and I actually am guessing that this is going to break $60,000, and 40,000 would be the next target.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我的目标 60,000 在 2 月 6 日达成，” Roque 说。“我不会感到惊讶，我实际上在猜测这将突破 60,000，40,000 将是下一个目标。”</p>
</div><p>He frames the current setup in historical context.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他将当前的形势置于历史背景中。</p>
</div><p>Since 2017, Bitcoin's major cyclical bottoms occurred when the asset traded 52%, 44% and 55% below its 200-day moving average. As of mid-February, Bitcoin was roughly 32% below that long-term trendline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2017 年以来，比特币的主要周期性底部出现在资产交易价格分别低于其 200 日移动平均线 52%、44% 和 55% 时。截至 2 月中旬，比特币的价格大约低于该长期趋势线 32%。</p>
</div><p>That gap suggests — at least by historical standards — that the drawdown may not yet be complete.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一差距表明——至少从历史标准来看——下跌可能尚未结束。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It can bounce, but I'm a seller,&#34; Roque said, adding that the Bitcoin chart resembles a textbook head-and-shoulders top.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“它可以反弹，但我是卖方，” Roque 说，并补充道比特币图表类似于教科书式的头肩顶形态。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17115157/image-357-1024x572.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17115157/image-357-1024x572.png"/></p>
<h2>How Deep Could A Bitcoin Bear Market Go?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币熊市可能有多深？</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin has suffered five major bear markets since 2011, with drawdowns of 82%, 86%, 84%, 72% and 75%. The average decline was roughly 80%. The smallest drop was 72%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2011 年以来，比特币经历了五次主要的熊市，回撤幅度分别为 82%、86%、84%、72% 和 75%。平均下降幅度约为 80%。最小的下跌幅度为 72%。</p>
</div><p>Applying a 72% decline from the most recent peak implies a potential downside near $35,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果从最近的高点应用 72% 的回撤，意味着潜在的下行目标接近$35,000。</p>
</div><p>Roque is focused on $40,000 as a more practical level below $60,000 — but either way, the historical template suggests room for further weakness if the cycle plays out in similar fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Roque 关注$40,000 作为低于$60,000 的更实际水平——但无论如何，历史模板表明如果周期以类似方式进行，仍有进一步疲软的空间。</p>
</div><p>The bearish technical setup extends to <strong>Strategy Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, which has become a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看跌的技术形势延伸至 <strong>Strategy Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR)，前身为 MicroStrategy，已成为比特币的杠杆代理。</p>
</div><p>Roque's initial downside target for the stock was $100. It reached an intraday low of $104 before bouncing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Roque 对该股票的初始下行目标为$100。它在盘中最低触及$104 后反弹。</p>
</div><p>&#34;My initial downside target was 100,&#34; he said. &#34;I think this figure is going to prove optimistic. It would not surprise me if this got to 20.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我最初的下行目标是 100，” 他说。“我认为这个数字将被证明过于乐观。如果它跌到 20，我不会感到惊讶。”</p>
</div><p>He acknowledged that $20 may sound extreme, but said the stock's relative performance versus the S&amp;P 500 has turned sharply negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他承认$20 可能听起来极端，但表示该股票相对于标准普尔 500 指数的相对表现已急剧转为负面。</p>
</div><p>The last time Strategy showed similar relative weakness, the stock ultimately suffered a 90% absolute decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上一次 Strategy 显示出类似的相对疲软时，该股票最终遭遇了 90% 的绝对下跌。</p>
</div><p>According to the company, Strategy holds more than 717,000 Bitcoins at an average purchase price of $76,000, representing roughly $54.5 billion in total cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据公司数据，Strategy 持有超过 717,000 个比特币，平均购买价格为$76,000，总成本约为 545 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>At recent prices near $68,500, those holdings are worth just under $49 billion — implying an unrealized loss of approximately $5.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近接近$68,500 的价格下，这些持有的价值刚好低于 490 亿美元——意味着未实现损失约为 55 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>If Bitcoin decisively breaks below $60,000 and trends toward $40,000, the pressure on Strategy's balance sheet — and equity valuation — could intensify quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果比特币果断跌破$60,000 并向$40,000 趋势，Strategy 的资产负债表和股权估值的压力可能会迅速加剧。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Magnificent 7, Bitcoin And Software: Why It's 'All One Trade,' Analyst Says

- 技术分析师 John Roque 指出大型科技股、软件股和比特币当前表现一致疲弱。  
- 比特币已触及 $60,000 目标，并可能下探至 $40,000。  
- 投资者需警惕比特币可能面临的熊市风险。

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壮丽七大、比特币和软件：分析师解释为何这被视为 “一笔交易”