<p>许多 <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +1.12%) 投资者可能在日历上圈出了 2026 年 2 月 25 日。这是这家大型芯片制造商计划公布其 2025 财年第四季度业绩的日期。Nvidia 计划在市场收盘后发布业绩，并在随后不久与分析师举行季度电话会议。</p>
<p>预测 Nvidia 在第四季度更新后股价会飙升是很容易的。公司的业绩几乎肯定会非常出色，反映出其蓬勃发展的基础业务。然而，我有一个逆向的看法。我预测在 2 月 25 日之后，这只 GPU 股票 将会下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTY2NzgvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="2000" height="1200" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTY2NzgvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>高期望的问题</h2>
<p>根据 <strong>S&amp;P Global</strong>( SPGI +0.17%) 的数据，华尔街对 Nvidia 第四季度的收入共识预期为 656 亿美元。平均调整后的每股收益预期为 1.52 美元。这两个预期都反映出大约 71% 的同比增长。</p>
<p>我的预测是否假设 Nvidia 将无法满足这些预期？实际上并不是。Nvidia 在超越华尔街预期方面有着出色的记录，在过去四个季度中每次都交出了超出预期的业绩。我认为公司会再次做到这一点。</p>
<p>然而，超越分析师预期并不总是意味着随之而来的股价上涨。看看下面的图表。图表中的每个 &#34;E&#34; 表示 Nvidia 报告收益的时间。正如我刚才提到的，公司在每次收益报告中都超出了预期。但请注意，Nvidia 的股价在此后的表现。股价在四个季度更新中的三个之后下跌。</p>
<p></p>
<p>NVDA 数据由 YCharts 提供</p>
<p>这些收益后下跌的原因是什么？有时，华尔街的 &#34;耳语数字 &#34;高于官方的收入和收益预期。另一个因素是，投资者往往已经将对收益结果的良好预期计入价格，如果季度更新中有任何不完美的迹象，他们就会感到紧张。</p>
<p>在 Nvidia 的第四季度收益电话会议中，可能会让投资者感到不安的一个潜在问题是内存短缺。如果 Nvidia 的管理层表示内存供应可能会稍微影响今年晚些时候的 GPU 销售，我们可能会看到股价下跌。</p>
<h2>对 AI 投资回报的怀疑</h2>
<p>Nvidia 在其第四季度更新中还面临另一个挑战。一些分析师和投资者对 AI 支出的投资回报 (ROI) 表示怀疑。</p>
<p>微软( MSFT 1.11%) 在其最近的季度业绩中轻松超越了收入和收益预期。但其股价在此后暴跌。导致抛售的一个因素是公司在 AI 基础设施上的支出增加。</p>
<p><strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOG 1.05%)( GOOGL 1.24%) 的情况也类似。谷歌母公司在 2026 年 2 月 4 日发布了出色的第四季度业绩。然而，第二天股价适度下跌。下跌的主要原因是对 Alphabet 在 AI 相关资本支出上大幅增加的担忧。许多投资者还对 <strong>亚马逊</strong>( AMZN +1.19%) 今年超过 2000 亿美元的巨额资本支出预测感到担忧。</p>
<p>微软、Alphabet 和亚马逊不仅是顶级 AI 股票，它们也是 Nvidia 的主要客户。我怀疑这种对 AI 投资回报的怀疑环境将使 Nvidia 在其第四季度更新中真正让投资者感到惊艳变得困难。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Nvidia 股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>Nvidia</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(1.12%) $2.05</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$184.86</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$4.5T</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$179.18 - $187.15</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$86.62 - $212.19</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>4.5M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>180M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>70.05%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.02%</p>
<h2>预测的下跌将是一个机会</h2>
<p>当然，我预测 Nvidia 的股价将在 2 月 25 日之后下跌可能是错误的。如果有任何公司能够在困难的环境中表现出色，那就是 Nvidia。</p>
<p>不过，我认为长期投资者应该希望我的预测成真。Nvidia 股价的任何回调在我看来都是一个机会。我完全期待公司在今年晚些时候的 Rubin ramp 将会取得巨大的成功。我相信 AI 的投资回报将随着时间的推移而得到明确的证明。因此，短期的下跌将为在低位买入这只股票提供绝佳机会。</p>

英伟达

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

<p>英伟达计划于 2026 年 2 月 25 日公布其 2025 财年第四季度业绩，市场对其收入和盈利抱有很高的期望。尽管预计表现强劲，但一种对立观点认为，由于潜在的内存短缺和对人工智能投资回报率的怀疑，股价在公告后可能会下跌。历史趋势显示，英伟达的股价在超出预期后往往会下跌。短期内的下跌可能为长期投资者提供买入机会，因为预计公司在其人工智能项目中将取得成功</p>

<p>Many <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +1.12%) investors have probably circled Feb. 25, 2026, on their calendars. That's the date the giant chipmaker is scheduled to announce its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter results. Nvidia plans to release its results following the market close and hold its quarterly conference call with analysts shortly afterward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多 <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +1.12%) 投资者可能在日历上圈出了 2026 年 2 月 25 日。这是这家大型芯片制造商计划公布其 2025 财年第四季度业绩的日期。Nvidia 计划在市场收盘后发布业绩，并在随后不久与分析师举行季度电话会议。</p>
</div><p>It's easy to predict that Nvidia's share price will surge after its Q4 update. The company's results will almost certainly be fantastic and reflect a booming underlying business. However, I have a contrarian take. I predict that the GPU stock will drop after Feb. 25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测 Nvidia 在第四季度更新后股价会飙升是很容易的。公司的业绩几乎肯定会非常出色，反映出其蓬勃发展的基础业务。然而，我有一个逆向的看法。我预测在 2 月 25 日之后，这只 GPU 股票 将会下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTY2NzgvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="Nvidia sign in front of a building." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F856678%2Fnvidia-headquarters-outside-with-black-nvidia-sign-with-nvidia-logo.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>A high-expectations problem</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高期望的问题</h2>
</div><p>The consensus Wall Street Q4 revenue estimate for Nvidia is $65.6 billion, according to <strong>S&amp;P Global</strong>( SPGI +0.17%). The average Q4 adjusted earnings estimate is $1.52 per share. Both estimates reflect year-over-year growth of roughly 71%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <strong>S&amp;P Global</strong>( SPGI +0.17%) 的数据，华尔街对 Nvidia 第四季度的收入共识预期为 656 亿美元。平均调整后的每股收益预期为 1.52 美元。这两个预期都反映出大约 71% 的同比增长。</p>
</div><p>Does my prediction assume that Nvidia will fail to meet these estimates? Actually, no. Nvidia has an excellent track record of beating Wall Street's numbers, delivering better-than-expected results in each of the last four quarters. I think the company will do it again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的预测是否假设 Nvidia 将无法满足这些预期？实际上并不是。Nvidia 在超越华尔街预期方面有着出色的记录，在过去四个季度中每次都交出了超出预期的业绩。我认为公司会再次做到这一点。</p>
</div><p>However, beating analysts' estimates doesn't always translate to a subsequent stock gain. Look at the chart below. Each of the &#34;Es&#34; on the chart shows when Nvidia reported earnings. As I just mentioned, the company exceeded expectations in each earnings report. But notice what happened with Nvidia's share price afterward. The stock fell following three of the four quarterly updates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，超越分析师预期并不总是意味着随之而来的股价上涨。看看下面的图表。图表中的每个 &#34;E&#34; 表示 Nvidia 报告收益的时间。正如我刚才提到的，公司在每次收益报告中都超出了预期。但请注意，Nvidia 的股价在此后的表现。股价在四个季度更新中的三个之后下跌。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据由 YCharts 提供</p>
</div><p>What's behind those post-earnings declines? Sometimes, Wall Street has &#34;whisper numbers&#34; that are higher than the official revenue and earnings estimates. Another factor is that investors have often already priced in great expectations for earnings results and get nervous if there's even a hint of anything less than perfect in the quarterly update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些收益后下跌的原因是什么？有时，华尔街的 &#34;耳语数字 &#34;高于官方的收入和收益预期。另一个因素是，投资者往往已经将对收益结果的良好预期计入价格，如果季度更新中有任何不完美的迹象，他们就会感到紧张。</p>
</div><p>One potential issue that could rattle investors during Nvidia's Q4 earnings call is the memory shortage. If Nvidia's management indicates that memory availability could even slightly affect GPU sales later this year, we could see the stock tumble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Nvidia 的第四季度收益电话会议中，可能会让投资者感到不安的一个潜在问题是内存短缺。如果 Nvidia 的管理层表示内存供应可能会稍微影响今年晚些时候的 GPU 销售，我们可能会看到股价下跌。</p>
</div><h2>AI ROI skepticism</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对 AI 投资回报的怀疑</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia also faces another challenge heading into its Q4 update. Some analysts and investors are skeptical of the return on investment (ROI) that AI spending is delivering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 在其第四季度更新中还面临另一个挑战。一些分析师和投资者对 AI 支出的投资回报 (ROI) 表示怀疑。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft( MSFT 1.11%) handily beat revenue and earnings estimates in its most recent quarterly results. But its stock plunged afterward. One factor behind the sell-off was the company's increased spending on AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软( MSFT 1.11%) 在其最近的季度业绩中轻松超越了收入和收益预期。但其股价在此后暴跌。导致抛售的一个因素是公司在 AI 基础设施上的支出增加。</p>
</div><p>It was a similar story with <strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOG 1.05%)( GOOGL 1.24%). Google's parent delivered terrific Q4 results on Feb. 4, 2026. However, the stock fell moderately the next day. The decline was primarily due to concerns about Alphabet's significant increase in AI-related capital expenditures. Many investors also fretted about <strong>Amazon</strong>'s ( AMZN +1.19%) massive capex forecast of over $200 billion for this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOG 1.05%)( GOOGL 1.24%) 的情况也类似。谷歌母公司在 2026 年 2 月 4 日发布了出色的第四季度业绩。然而，第二天股价适度下跌。下跌的主要原因是对 Alphabet 在 AI 相关资本支出上大幅增加的担忧。许多投资者还对 <strong>亚马逊</strong>( AMZN +1.19%) 今年超过 2000 亿美元的巨额资本支出预测感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon aren't just top AI stocks. They're also major customers of Nvidia. I suspect that this environment of AI ROI skepticism will make it difficult for Nvidia to truly wow investors in its Q4 update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软、Alphabet 和亚马逊不仅是顶级 AI 股票，它们也是 Nvidia 的主要客户。我怀疑这种对 AI 投资回报的怀疑环境将使 Nvidia 在其第四季度更新中真正让投资者感到惊艳变得困难。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(1.12%) $2.05</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(1.12%) $2.05</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$184.86</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$184.86</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$4.5T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.5T</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$179.18 - $187.15</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$179.18 - $187.15</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$86.62 - $212.19</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$86.62 - $212.19</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>4.5M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4.5M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>180M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>180M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>70.05%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>70.05%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.02%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.02%</p>
</div><h2>A predicted dip that will be a gift</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预测的下跌将是一个机会</h2>
</div><p>Granted, my prediction that Nvidia's stock will drop after Feb. 25 could be wrong. If any company can knock the ball out of the park even in a challenging climate, it's Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，我预测 Nvidia 的股价将在 2 月 25 日之后下跌可能是错误的。如果有任何公司能够在困难的环境中表现出色，那就是 Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>I think that long-term investors should want my prediction to come true, though. Any pullback in Nvidia's share price would be a gift, in my opinion. I fully expect that the company's Rubin ramp later this year will be a smashing success. I believe that the ROI for AI will be clearly demonstrated over time. A short-term drop would therefore present an excellent opportunity to buy this stock on the dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，我认为长期投资者应该希望我的预测成真。Nvidia 股价的任何回调在我看来都是一个机会。我完全期待公司在今年晚些时候的 Rubin ramp 将会取得巨大的成功。我相信 AI 的投资回报将随着时间的推移而得到明确的证明。因此，短期的下跌将为在低位买入这只股票提供绝佳机会。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Nvidia Stock Will Drop After Feb. 25

- Nvidia 将于 2026 年 2 月 25 日公布 2025 财年第四季度业绩。  
- 华尔街普遍预计其 Q4 收入为 656 亿美元，年增长约 71%。  
- 尽管业绩可能超预期，但股价可能因市场期望和供应问题下跌。

预测：NVIDIA 的股票将在 2 月 25 日之后下跌