<p>如果街上有两个陌生人打架，你会加入吗？</p>
<p>这就是交易者在特定股票或行业出现剧烈波动时会考虑的类比。目前，软件股票正受到重创，市场担心人工智能会扰乱该行业。</p>
<p>除非你已经持有相关头寸，否则没有必要参与其中。是的，可能会有机会，但一旦成为战场，波动性会变得非常剧烈，情况会超出预期。如果你想参与，头寸应该小且灵活。</p>
<p>在我看来，除非你对公司、行业非常熟悉，并且对宏观经济有清晰的看法，否则很难在战场股票中找到信心。这种情况极为罕见，时间线通常比你想象的要长。一旦一只股票成为战场，烟雾散去需要很长时间。</p>
<p>我能想到一个例子，就是在油价跌至负值后的几个月。立即跳入市场太困难，因为油价在新冠疫情头条、经济担忧和需求不确定性下经常波动 20%。对我来说，真正的买入信号直到 2020 年秋季才出现，那时显然新冠不会摧毁世界，而油价仍在 20 美元左右。</p>
<p>另一方面，我能想到很多次选择观望是明智的做法。想想那些 meme 股票或受到不确定性影响的行业。一个例子是硅谷银行倒闭后的银行业。许多地区性银行遭受重创，分析师、看涨和看跌者都在争论谁在承担损失。银行业本身就不透明，管理层不可信，因此很难知道他们是否安全。</p>
<p>最终，大多数银行是安全的，股价大幅反弹。错过这样的机会自然会让人感到遗憾，但在战斗的前线，这并不是一个容易的决定。</p>
<p>更重要的是，这并不是一个必要的决定。正如沃伦·巴菲特在 199 年所说，投资中没有强制出局。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>&#34;投资的诀窍就是坐在那里，观看一个又一个投球，等待那个正好在你甜蜜点的球。如果有人在喊，‘挥杆，混蛋！’，就忽略他们。&#34;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>相反，机会通常在于深入研究那些不在头条上的市场领域，慢慢积累对不同经济体的知识，等待一个绝佳的投球。</p>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数的交易市盈率为 23 倍，远高于 30 年平均的 17.1 倍。</p>
<p>目前市场上没有很多明显的机会，这就是为什么越来越多的市场参与者开始关注国际股票。</p>

标普 500 指数

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

<p>这篇文章建议不要参与波动性大的 “战场” 股票，特别是在软件行业，因为人们对人工智能颠覆的担忧。文章强调在投资之前对公司及其行业的熟悉程度的重要性。历史案例说明了在不确定市场中盲目投资的风险，例如在油价崩溃和硅谷银行倒闭后的时期。相反，作者建议关注那些不太被公众关注的投资机会，并进行深入研究，因为当前标普 500 的估值相较于历史平均水平较高</p>

<p>If there was a fight on the street between two strangers would you join in?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果街上有两个陌生人打架，你会加入吗？</p>
</div><p>That's the analogy that traders would consider when there is high drama in a particular stock or sector. Right now it's software stocks as their being slammed lower on fears that AI will disrupt the sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是交易者在特定股票或行业出现剧烈波动时会考虑的类比。目前，软件股票正受到重创，市场担心人工智能会扰乱该行业。</p>
</div><p>Unless you already had a position, there is no need to get involved. Yes, there might be opportunities but once it's a battleground the volatility gets intense and things overshoot. If you want to wade it, positions should be small and nimble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非你已经持有相关头寸，否则没有必要参与其中。是的，可能会有机会，但一旦成为战场，波动性会变得非常剧烈，情况会超出预期。如果你想参与，头寸应该小且灵活。</p>
</div><p>To my way of thinking, it's impossible to find the conviction in a battleground stock unless you're intimately familiar with the company, the sector and have a solid view on the macro. That's exceedingly rare and timelines are usually longer than you think. Once a stock becomes a battleground, it takes a long time for the smoke to clear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，除非你对公司、行业非常熟悉，并且对宏观经济有清晰的看法，否则很难在战场股票中找到信心。这种情况极为罕见，时间线通常比你想象的要长。一旦一只股票成为战场，烟雾散去需要很长时间。</p>
</div><p>I can think of a time when it worked in the months after oil prices went negative. Jumping right in away was too tough as oil prices were moving 20% regularly on covid headlines, economic worries and uncertainty around demand. For me, the real buy signal wasn't until autumn 2020 when it was clear that covid wasn't going to destroy the world and oil was still in the $20s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我能想到一个例子，就是在油价跌至负值后的几个月。立即跳入市场太困难，因为油价在新冠疫情头条、经济担忧和需求不确定性下经常波动 20%。对我来说，真正的买入信号直到 2020 年秋季才出现，那时显然新冠不会摧毁世界，而油价仍在 20 美元左右。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, I can think of an abundance of times when it was a wise course of action to sit out. Think of the meme stocks or sectors hit by uncertainty. One was banking in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. A number of regional banks were getting wrecked and there were analysts, bulls and bears screaming about who was holding losses. Banking is naturally opaque and executives can't be trusted so it was impossible to know they were safe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，我能想到很多次选择观望是明智的做法。想想那些 meme 股票或受到不确定性影响的行业。一个例子是硅谷银行倒闭后的银行业。许多地区性银行遭受重创，分析师、看涨和看跌者都在争论谁在承担损失。银行业本身就不透明，管理层不可信，因此很难知道他们是否安全。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, most were and the share prices rebounded in a big way. It's natural to regret missing a move like that but in the trenches of the battle it's not an easy call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，大多数银行是安全的，股价大幅反弹。错过这样的机会自然会让人感到遗憾，但在战斗的前线，这并不是一个容易的决定。</p>
</div><p>More importantly, it's not a necessary one. Like Warren Buffett said in 199, there are no called strikes in investing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，这并不是一个必要的决定。正如沃伦·巴菲特在 199 年所说，投资中没有强制出局。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>&#34;The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, 'Swing, you bum!', ignore them.&#34;</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>&#34;投资的诀窍就是坐在那里，观看一个又一个投球，等待那个正好在你甜蜜点的球。如果有人在喊，‘挥杆，混蛋！’，就忽略他们。&#34;</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Instead, the opportunity is usually in researching deeper into the places in the market that aren't on the front pages, slowly developing knowledge of different economies and waiting for a great pitch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，机会通常在于深入研究那些不在头条上的市场领域，慢慢积累对不同经济体的知识，等待一个绝佳的投球。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 is trading at 23x forward earnings against the 30-year average of 17.1x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数的交易市盈率为 23 倍，远高于 30 年平均的 17.1 倍。</p>
</div><p>There aren't many fat pitches out there right now and that's why more and more market participants are looking at international equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前市场上没有很多明显的机会，这就是为什么越来越多的市场参与者开始关注国际股票。</p>
</div>

You don't need to wade into the battleground stocks

- 当前软件股因 AI 担忧而暴跌，交易者须谨慎参与。  
- 切勿盲目跟风，适当的小规模投资方为上策。  
- 目前国际股票吸引越来越多的市场参与者。

你不必涉足那些竞争激烈的股票市场