<p>经过几个月的亏损，山寨币开始显现出复苏的迹象，其中包括 Avalanche [AVAX]。</p>
<p>在 2026 年 2 月 20 日，AVAX 的活动重新活跃，交易量上升 25% 至 2.4887 亿美元。它的交易价格约为 9.25 美元，突破了 10 月 10 日崩盘后形成的下降趋势线。那次剧烈的抛售标志着长期下行的开始。</p>
<p>自那次崩盘以来，下降阻力线多次拒绝了每次的反弹尝试。同时，7.29 美元作为关键的结构支撑，仍然是多头无法承受失去的水平。</p>
<p>随着价格再次逼近阻力，真正的问题是动能是否终于有力量突破它。</p>
<h2><strong>MACD 形成看涨交叉</strong></h2>
<p>在日线图上，AVAX 在接近 10 月崩盘的下行通道时形成了看涨的 MACD 交叉。直方图略微转为正值，表明短期动能正在摆脱看跌控制。</p>
<p></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>截至发稿时，RSI 上升至 42，摆脱了近期低点，但仍低于 50。因此，动能有所改善，但尚未完全转入看涨区域。AVAX 仍直接处于阻力下方，这限制了交叉的影响。</p>
<h2><strong>杠杆市场分析</strong></h2>
<p>根据 CryptoQuant 的数据，现货买入主导地位在累积交易量 Delta 上保持高位，反映出市场的积极买入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Avalanche-Spot-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Avalanche-Spot-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>此外，期货买入主导地位也保持高位，显示出在杠杆市场中的参与。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Avalanche-Futures-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Avalanche-Futures-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>这种组合表明市场需求活跃，而非被动出价。然而，尽管买入活动强劲，价格仍未能果断收复下降阻力。</p>
<p>因此，买方的积极性尚未转化为结构性变化。然而，数据暗示在价格行动下方正在形成积累。只有结构性突破才能验证这种积累。</p>
<h2><strong>AVAX 能否突破多年的下行趋势？</strong></h2>
<p>在周线图上，多年的下行趋势继续作为宏观阻力。自 2021 年以来的每次主要反弹都在这一天花板下停滞。这意味着 AVAX 自 2021 年以来一直处于熊市中。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/wee.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/wee.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>周 RSI 保持在 31.78 附近，低于其移动平均线，显示出动能疲弱。周 MACD 保持在零下，直方图略微为负。因此，尽管在较低时间框架上短期有所改善，但整体结构仍然看跌。</p>
<p>展望未来，需要在多年的下行趋势上方实现周收盘，以确认趋势的转变。在那之前，Avalanche 仍处于更大的看跌框架内。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最终总结</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>高位的买入主导地位和上升的交易量显示出参与，而非确认。</em></li>
<li><em>周线收复宏观阻力仍然是趋势反转的决定性要求。</em></li>
</ul>

COIN 周收益 ETF - Roundhill

COIN

RIOT

<p>Avalanche (AVAX) 的交易量激增 25%，达到 2.4887 亿美元，试图突破多年的下行趋势。尽管出现了看涨的 MACD 交叉和市场买入增加，AVAX 仍然处于关键阻力位之下，价格约为 9.25 美元。周线图显示持续的看跌动能，需要在多年的下行趋势上方收盘才能实现趋势反转。目前的指标表明有积累的迹象，但缺乏市场结构变化的确认</p>

<p>After months of losses, altcoins have begun showing signs of recovery, with Avalanche [AVAX] among them</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经过几个月的亏损，山寨币开始显现出复苏的迹象，其中包括 Avalanche [AVAX]。</p>
</div><p>On the 20th of February 2026, AVAX saw renewed activity as volume climbed 25 percent to $248.87 million. It traded around $9.25, pushing into the descending trendline formed after the October 10 crash. That violent selloff marked the start of a prolonged grind lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年 2 月 20 日，AVAX 的活动重新活跃，交易量上升 25% 至 2.4887 亿美元。它的交易价格约为 9.25 美元，突破了 10 月 10 日崩盘后形成的下降趋势线。那次剧烈的抛售标志着长期下行的开始。</p>
</div><p>Since that crash, the descending resistance repeatedly rejected every recovery attempt. Meanwhile, $7.29 acted as key structural support and remained the level bulls could not afford to lose.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那次崩盘以来，下降阻力线多次拒绝了每次的反弹尝试。同时，7.29 美元作为关键的结构支撑，仍然是多头无法承受失去的水平。</p>
</div><p>With price pressing resistance again, the real question was whether momentum finally had the strength to break it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着价格再次逼近阻力，真正的问题是动能是否终于有力量突破它。</p>
</div><h2><strong>MACD forms a bullish crossover</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>MACD 形成看涨交叉</strong></h2>
</div><p>On the daily chart, AVAX formed a bullish MACD crossover as it approached the downtrend channel from October’s crash. The histogram turned slightly positive, signaling short‑term momentum shifting away from bearish control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日线图上，AVAX 在接近 10 月崩盘的下行通道时形成了看涨的 MACD 交叉。直方图略微转为正值，表明短期动能正在摆脱看跌控制。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/VAX-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/VAX-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>At press time, RSI climbed toward 42, recovering from recent lows but still below 50. Therefore, momentum improved, yet it had not fully transitioned into bullish territory. AVAX remained directly under resistance, which limited the impact of the crossover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至发稿时，RSI 上升至 42，摆脱了近期低点，但仍低于 50。因此，动能有所改善，但尚未完全转入看涨区域。AVAX 仍直接处于阻力下方，这限制了交叉的影响。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Leverage market analysis</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>杠杆市场分析</strong></h2>
</div><p>Spot Taker Buy Dominance stayed elevated on Cumulative Volume Delta, according to CryptoQuant, reflecting aggressive market buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CryptoQuant 的数据，现货买入主导地位在累积交易量 Delta 上保持高位，反映出市场的积极买入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Avalanche-Spot-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Avalanche-Spot-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Futures Taker Buy Dominance also remained elevated, showing participation across leveraged markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，期货买入主导地位也保持高位，显示出在杠杆市场中的参与。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Avalanche-Futures-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Avalanche-Futures-Taker-CVDCumulative-Volume-Delta-90-day-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>This combination suggested active demand rather than passive bidding. However, despite strong taker activity, the price failed to decisively reclaim the descending resistance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种组合表明市场需求活跃，而非被动出价。然而，尽管买入活动强劲，价格仍未能果断收复下降阻力。</p>
</div><p>As a result, buyer aggression had not yet translated into structural change. However, the data implied accumulation was developing beneath price action. Only a structural breakout could validate that buildup.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，买方的积极性尚未转化为结构性变化。然而，数据暗示在价格行动下方正在形成积累。只有结构性突破才能验证这种积累。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Will AVAX break its the multi-year downtrend?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>AVAX 能否突破多年的下行趋势？</strong></h2>
</div><p>On the weekly chart, the multi-year downtrend continued to act as macro resistance. Every major rally since 2021 had stalled beneath this ceiling. This meant AVAX had remained in a bear market since 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周线图上，多年的下行趋势继续作为宏观阻力。自 2021 年以来的每次主要反弹都在这一天花板下停滞。这意味着 AVAX 自 2021 年以来一直处于熊市中。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/wee.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/wee.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Weekly RSI remained near 31.78 and below its moving average, signaling weak momentum. Weekly MACD stayed below zero with a slightly negative histogram. Therefore, the broader structure remained bearish despite short-term improvement on lower timeframes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周 RSI 保持在 31.78 附近，低于其移动平均线，显示出动能疲弱。周 MACD 保持在零下，直方图略微为负。因此，尽管在较低时间框架上短期有所改善，但整体结构仍然看跌。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, a weekly close above the multi-year downtrend would be required to confirm a shift. Until that happened, Avalanche remained within a larger bearish framework.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，需要在多年的下行趋势上方实现周收盘，以确认趋势的转变。在那之前，Avalanche 仍处于更大的看跌框架内。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Summary</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最终总结</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Elevated taker dominance and rising volume showed participation, not confirmation.</em></li>
<li><em>A weekly reclaim of macro resistance remained the defining requirement for trend reversal.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>高位的买入主导地位和上升的交易量显示出参与，而非确认。</em></li>
<li><em>周线收复宏观阻力仍然是趋势反转的决定性要求。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Avalanche: Can AVAX’s 25% volume surge break its multi-year downtrend?

- 在经历数月亏损后，Avalanche [AVAX] 显示复苏迹象，2 月 20 日交易量增长 25%。  
- 尽管短期动能改善，AVAX 仍处于多年的下行趋势中，尚未突破重要阻力。  
- 持续的购买活动显示市场需求，但需要突破才能确认趋势反转。

雪崩：AVAX 的 25% 交易量激增能否打破其多年的下行趋势？