<p>香港财政状况的改善引发了对政府在即将到来的预算中提供更多 “甜头” 的强烈呼声，包括跨党派对中产阶级更多税收减免的要求，但经济学家对此类普遍措施表示谨慎。他们更支持有针对性的支出，最近几周，关心团体提出了对基层居民，尤其是失业者提供更具体帮助的要求。这场日益激烈的辩论源于香港财政司司长陈茂波去年八月披露，香港将在连续三年赤字后实现早期的运营账户盈余。今年二月，陈表示，股市繁荣帮助政府的运营账户在 2025-2026 财年提前回到盈余状态，比预期早了一年。根据一些会计公司的估计，盈余可能达到约 5 亿港元（6400 万美元）。政府去年推出了一次性支持措施，总额为 83 亿港元，比 2024 年的 115 亿港元减少了 28%，比 2023 年的 594 亿港元减少了 86%。随着公共财政的改善，今年预算中对更多 “甜头” 的呼声日益高涨。大多数政治团体都推动扩大中产阶级的税收减免。由选举委员会和功能团体立法会议员组成的 G19 集团，以及香港工商专业联盟（BPA）提议将基本薪俸税免税额从当前的 132,000 港元提高。G19 呼吁将免税额提高至 140,000 港元，而 BPA 希望将其提高至 152,000 港元。他们还呼吁提高儿童津贴，其他主要政党也有类似要求。香港最大的政党——香港民主建港协进联盟，以及亲商的自由党正在游说为雇佣外籍家庭佣工的家庭设立新的税收免税额。G19 集团的立法会议员陈俊英表示，中产阶级希望在过去三年紧缩预算后获得更多减免措施，因为这些预算只给他们带来了 “少许甜头”。“虽然今年的公共账户表现更好，但现在是时候增加更多甜头了，” 陈说。“中产阶级一直贡献更多，但他们的好处主要来自于自己的努力。” 关于 G19 集团将薪俸税免税额提高至 140,000 港元的提议，陈指出这将减少约 7.4 亿港元的税收收入，对总收入的影响微乎其微。他指出，1 月份股市的日均成交额为 2500 亿港元，产生了近 3 亿港元的股票印花税，陈表示：“仅仅两天的股票印花税收入就足以让所有工资收入者更快乐。” 但经济学家警告不要过早提供额外的 “甜头”，指出资本账户赤字和未来债券发行的重大偿还。他们反对跨党派共识提高薪俸税免税额，这将减少纳税人数，并削弱政府的第二大收入来源，占 2024-25 年总收入的近 16%。香港中文大学深圳金融研究院的经济学家李小波表示，运营账户盈余是由股市反弹推动的，这些数字还包括债券收益，这并不能为大规模减免措施提供坚实基础。“我们在这个财政年度运气不错，因为股市表现良好，但在市场下行时我们的财政状况将变得岌岌可危，” 他说。“像公共住房租金减免和税收回扣这样的措施是可控的，因为它们是一次性的，但长期的甜头措施并不合适。” 他强调，政府在提高免税额时需要谨慎，因为这将产生长期影响。“土地收入大幅下降，如果没有其他来源来弥补短缺，这样做是没有意义的，” 李指出。香港城市与经济研究中心主任关卓照教授建议，今年的预算应采取 “防御性措施”，在结构性赤字的情况下进一步减少支出，同时将 “甜头” 保持在最低限度。关指出，政府通过债券发行为基础设施和北部大都会特大项目融资，这些债务必须连本带息偿还，他表示，在这样的财政义务下增加 “甜头” 支出是自相矛盾的。政府在 2025-26 财年的前三个季度通过债券发行筹集了近 1400 亿港元，并偿还了超过 300 亿港元的债务。尽管仍需稳定和可持续的收入来源，关表示，提高免税额与这一目标相悖。他补充说，中产阶级已经从股市繁荣和稳定的房地产市场中受益，他呼吁当局关注对低收入居民的救助措施。“中产阶级有工作，房价下跌已趋于平稳，股市也上涨。不要告诉我他们破产了，” 关说。“随着失业率上升，基层确实需要帮助。支持他们比给中产阶级发放补助更好。” 香港中文大学刘佐德全球经济与金融研究所执行董事庄太亮教授也呼吁对在经济复苏和转型中受到重创的人群提供有针对性的援助。“向失业者发放几亿港元的资金，已经能为他们提供实质性帮助，” 他说。庄建议对因引入劳工而失业的、失业率超过 7% 的行业工人提供一次性补贴。社区组织协会副主任施丽珊预计，改善的公共财政将增强对低收入居民的财政支持，例如提高对失业者的再培训补贴。“基层经历了艰难的一年，尤其是由于引入劳工，许多商店和公司关闭，” 她说。“一些工人的工资被削减，还有一些人报告说找工作越来越困难。” 该团体还呼吁建立失业和就业不足援助制度，提供短期津贴。施还呼吁增加工作家庭津贴和综合社会保障援助计划下的补贴，并重新引入已取消的 2500 港元学生补助，但仅限于低收入家庭，理由是他们的教育支出沉重。为了加大政府支出削减力度，58 个每年获得超过 5000 万港元的大型社会福利组织将在 2027-28 年前面临 7% 的资金削减，而 121 个中小型团体将面临 3% 的削减。社会福利立法会议员陈曼怡呼吁政府在预算恢复平衡的情况下停止计划削减社会福利组织的资金，表达了对服务质量下降和一线员工压力加大的担忧。“政府应该停止削减社会福利支出。这是一种社会投资，减少它将带来更大的长期成本，” 她说。这位立法会议员还预计政府将增加对社会福利团体的支持和资金，特别是在服务中使用技术方面。曾任立法会财政委员会主席的陈俊英呼吁政府在财务规划中保持谨慎，引用地缘政治紧张局势和美国降息速度放缓。“在 2025 年，各种积极因素汇聚在一起：美国降息、股市表现强劲和市场繁荣。投资一切都表现良好，” 他说。“但 2026 年可能不会像去年那么好。”</p>

恒生指数

<p>香港财政状况的改善引发了对即将发布的预算中更多 “甜头” 的呼声，特别是对中产阶级的税收减免。然而，经济学家们对此表示谨慎，主张采取针对性的支出措施。财政司司长宣布 2025-2026 财年的财政盈余，这促使政治团体提出提高税收免税额的建议。尽管一些人主张增加支持，但专家警告称，这些措施可能会削弱未来的收入，并建议由于现有的财政义务，应采取谨慎的态度</p>

<p>Hong Kong’s improving fiscal position has prompted a groundswell of calls for the government to offer more “sweeteners” in the coming budget, including a cross-party demand for more tax relief for the middle class, but economists have cautioned against such across-the-board measures. They were more supportive of targeted spending, a cause taken up in recent weeks by concern groups asking for more specific forms of help for grass-roots residents, especially the unemployed. The growing debate was sparked by Hong Kong finance chief Paul Chan Mo-po’s disclosure last August that the city was set to achieve an early operating account surplus after three consecutive years of deficit. In February, Chan said that a stock market boom had helped the government’s operating account return to surplus in the 2025-2026 financial year – a year earlier than projected. The surplus could reach about HK$500 million (US$64 million), according to estimates by some accounting firms. The government rolled out one-off support measures totalling HK$8.3 billion last year, a 28 per cent year-on-year reduction from HK$11.5 billion in 2024 and an 86 per cent drop from HK$59.4 billion in 2023. With the improved public finances, there has been a growing chorus for more sweeteners in this year’s budget. Most political groups have pushed for expanding tax breaks for the middle class. The G19 bloc, formed by the Election Committee and functional constituency lawmakers, and the Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA) have proposed raising the basic salaries tax allowance from the current HK$132,000. The G19 called for the allowance to be raised to HK$140,000, while the BPA hoped it would be increased to HK$152,000. They have also called for higher child allowances, as have other major parties. The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, the city’s biggest political party, and the pro-business Liberal Party are lobbying for a new tax allowance for families that hire foreign domestic workers. Lawmaker Ronick Chan Chun-ying of the G19 bloc said the middle class wanted more relief measures after the tight budgets of the past three years only offered them “little sweetness”. “While this year’s public account will perform better, it is time to add more sweetness,” Chan said. “The middle class have always contributed more, but their benefits largely come from their own efforts.” On the G19 bloc’s proposal to raise the salaries tax allowance to HK$140,000, Chan noted it would reduce tax revenue by about HK$740 million and have minimal impact on total income. Pointing out that the average daily turnover of the stock market in January stood at HK$250 billion, generating almost HK$300 million in stock stamp duty, Chan said: “Just about two days’ worth of stock stamp duty revenue is already enough to make all wage earners happier.” But economists cautioned against providing additional sweeteners too soon, citing the capital-account deficit and the substantial future repayment from bond issuance. They opposed the cross-party consensus to raise the salaries tax allowance, which would reduce the number of taxpayers and undermine the government’s second-largest source of revenue, accounting for nearly 16 per cent of the total revenue for 2024-25. Economist Simon Lee Siu-po of the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Shenzhen Finance Institute said the operating account surplus was driven by the stock market rally, and that the figures also included bond proceeds, which did not provide a sound basis for large-scale relief measures. “We have been fortunate this financial year as the stock market performed well, and our financial position would be precarious amid a market downturn,” he said. “Measures like public housing rent waivers and tax rebates are manageable since they are one-off, but long-term sweetener measures are not suitable.” He stressed that authorities needed to proceed with caution when raising the tax allowance, as this would have a long-term impact. “Land revenue has fallen sharply, and without other sources to cover the shortfall, it does not add up,” Lee noted. Professor Andy Kwan Cheuk-chiu, director of the ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, suggested this year’s budget adopt a “defensive approach” to reduce expenditure further amid a structural deficit while keeping sweeteners to a minimum. Kwan pointed to the government’s bond issuances to fund infrastructure and the Northern Metropolis megaproject, which must be repaid with interest, saying it would be contradictory to increase spending on sweeteners amid such financial obligations. The government raised nearly HK$140 billion from bond issuances in the first three quarters of 2025-26 and repaid more than HK$30 billion in bonds. While it was still in need of a stable and sustainable revenue source, Kwan said raising the tax allowance ran counter to that goal. He added that the middle class had benefited from the stock market boom and a stabilising property market, as he urged authorities to focus on relief measures for lower-income residents. “The middle class have jobs, the fall in property prices has moderated, and the stock market has gone up. Do not tell me they are broke,” Kwan said. “With the unemployment rate rising, the grass roots really need help. Supporting them would be better than giving handouts to the middle class.” Professor Terence Chong Tai-leung, executive director of the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance, also called for targeted aid for those hardest hit during the economic recovery and transition. “Distributing several hundred million [Hong Kong] dollars to target the unemployed would already provide them with substantial help,” he said. Chong proposed a one-off subsidy for workers in sectors with unemployment rates exceeding 7 per cent who had lost their jobs due to the importation of labour. Sze Lai-shan, deputy director of the Society for Community Organisation, expected that improved public finances would enhance financial support for lower-income residents, such as higher retraining subsidies for the unemployed. “The grass roots have experienced a tough year, particularly due to the import of labour, and many shops and companies have closed down,” she said. “Some workers have seen their wages cut, and some reported increasing difficulty in securing jobs.” The group also called for an unemployment and underemployment assistance system offering short-term allowances. Sze also called for an increase in the working family allowance and the subsidy under the Comprehensive Social Security Assistance scheme, and reintroducing an axed HK$2,500 student grant, but only for lower-income families, citing their heavy education expenses. In a bid to step up government expenditure cuts, 58 large social welfare organisations receiving more than HK$50 million annually were set for a 7 per cent reduction in funding by 2027-28, while 121 small to medium-sized groups would face a 3 per cent cut. Social welfare lawmaker Grace Chan Man-yee urged the government to halt planned funding cuts to social welfare organisations in light of a return to a balanced budget, expressing concerns over degrading service quality and heavy pressure on frontline staff. “The government should stop cutting social welfare expenses. It is a form of social investment, and reducing it will bring greater long-term costs,” she said. The legislator also expected the government to increase support and funding for social welfare groups, particularly for the use of technology in services. Ronick Chan, who chaired the legislature’s Finance Committee in the previous term, urged the government to remain prudent in its financial planning, citing geopolitical tensions and the slower pace of US interest rate cuts. “In 2025, various positive factors came together: US rate cuts, strong stock market performance and a booming market. Everything in investments did well,” he said. “But 2026 might not be as good as last year.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港财政状况的改善引发了对政府在即将到来的预算中提供更多 “甜头” 的强烈呼声，包括跨党派对中产阶级更多税收减免的要求，但经济学家对此类普遍措施表示谨慎。他们更支持有针对性的支出，最近几周，关心团体提出了对基层居民，尤其是失业者提供更具体帮助的要求。这场日益激烈的辩论源于香港财政司司长陈茂波去年八月披露，香港将在连续三年赤字后实现早期的运营账户盈余。今年二月，陈表示，股市繁荣帮助政府的运营账户在 2025-2026 财年提前回到盈余状态，比预期早了一年。根据一些会计公司的估计，盈余可能达到约 5 亿港元（6400 万美元）。政府去年推出了一次性支持措施，总额为 83 亿港元，比 2024 年的 115 亿港元减少了 28%，比 2023 年的 594 亿港元减少了 86%。随着公共财政的改善，今年预算中对更多 “甜头” 的呼声日益高涨。大多数政治团体都推动扩大中产阶级的税收减免。由选举委员会和功能团体立法会议员组成的 G19 集团，以及香港工商专业联盟（BPA）提议将基本薪俸税免税额从当前的 132,000 港元提高。G19 呼吁将免税额提高至 140,000 港元，而 BPA 希望将其提高至 152,000 港元。他们还呼吁提高儿童津贴，其他主要政党也有类似要求。香港最大的政党——香港民主建港协进联盟，以及亲商的自由党正在游说为雇佣外籍家庭佣工的家庭设立新的税收免税额。G19 集团的立法会议员陈俊英表示，中产阶级希望在过去三年紧缩预算后获得更多减免措施，因为这些预算只给他们带来了 “少许甜头”。“虽然今年的公共账户表现更好，但现在是时候增加更多甜头了，” 陈说。“中产阶级一直贡献更多，但他们的好处主要来自于自己的努力。” 关于 G19 集团将薪俸税免税额提高至 140,000 港元的提议，陈指出这将减少约 7.4 亿港元的税收收入，对总收入的影响微乎其微。他指出，1 月份股市的日均成交额为 2500 亿港元，产生了近 3 亿港元的股票印花税，陈表示：“仅仅两天的股票印花税收入就足以让所有工资收入者更快乐。” 但经济学家警告不要过早提供额外的 “甜头”，指出资本账户赤字和未来债券发行的重大偿还。他们反对跨党派共识提高薪俸税免税额，这将减少纳税人数，并削弱政府的第二大收入来源，占 2024-25 年总收入的近 16%。香港中文大学深圳金融研究院的经济学家李小波表示，运营账户盈余是由股市反弹推动的，这些数字还包括债券收益，这并不能为大规模减免措施提供坚实基础。“我们在这个财政年度运气不错，因为股市表现良好，但在市场下行时我们的财政状况将变得岌岌可危，” 他说。“像公共住房租金减免和税收回扣这样的措施是可控的，因为它们是一次性的，但长期的甜头措施并不合适。” 他强调，政府在提高免税额时需要谨慎，因为这将产生长期影响。“土地收入大幅下降，如果没有其他来源来弥补短缺，这样做是没有意义的，” 李指出。香港城市与经济研究中心主任关卓照教授建议，今年的预算应采取 “防御性措施”，在结构性赤字的情况下进一步减少支出，同时将 “甜头” 保持在最低限度。关指出，政府通过债券发行为基础设施和北部大都会特大项目融资，这些债务必须连本带息偿还，他表示，在这样的财政义务下增加 “甜头” 支出是自相矛盾的。政府在 2025-26 财年的前三个季度通过债券发行筹集了近 1400 亿港元，并偿还了超过 300 亿港元的债务。尽管仍需稳定和可持续的收入来源，关表示，提高免税额与这一目标相悖。他补充说，中产阶级已经从股市繁荣和稳定的房地产市场中受益，他呼吁当局关注对低收入居民的救助措施。“中产阶级有工作，房价下跌已趋于平稳，股市也上涨。不要告诉我他们破产了，” 关说。“随着失业率上升，基层确实需要帮助。支持他们比给中产阶级发放补助更好。” 香港中文大学刘佐德全球经济与金融研究所执行董事庄太亮教授也呼吁对在经济复苏和转型中受到重创的人群提供有针对性的援助。“向失业者发放几亿港元的资金，已经能为他们提供实质性帮助，” 他说。庄建议对因引入劳工而失业的、失业率超过 7% 的行业工人提供一次性补贴。社区组织协会副主任施丽珊预计，改善的公共财政将增强对低收入居民的财政支持，例如提高对失业者的再培训补贴。“基层经历了艰难的一年，尤其是由于引入劳工，许多商店和公司关闭，” 她说。“一些工人的工资被削减，还有一些人报告说找工作越来越困难。” 该团体还呼吁建立失业和就业不足援助制度，提供短期津贴。施还呼吁增加工作家庭津贴和综合社会保障援助计划下的补贴，并重新引入已取消的 2500 港元学生补助，但仅限于低收入家庭，理由是他们的教育支出沉重。为了加大政府支出削减力度，58 个每年获得超过 5000 万港元的大型社会福利组织将在 2027-28 年前面临 7% 的资金削减，而 121 个中小型团体将面临 3% 的削减。社会福利立法会议员陈曼怡呼吁政府在预算恢复平衡的情况下停止计划削减社会福利组织的资金，表达了对服务质量下降和一线员工压力加大的担忧。“政府应该停止削减社会福利支出。这是一种社会投资，减少它将带来更大的长期成本，” 她说。这位立法会议员还预计政府将增加对社会福利团体的支持和资金，特别是在服务中使用技术方面。曾任立法会财政委员会主席的陈俊英呼吁政府在财务规划中保持谨慎，引用地缘政治紧张局势和美国降息速度放缓。“在 2025 年，各种积极因素汇聚在一起：美国降息、股市表现强劲和市场繁荣。投资一切都表现良好，” 他说。“但 2026 年可能不会像去年那么好。”</p>
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香港 2026-27 年度预算：是为基层还是中产阶级提供 “优惠措施”？