<p>TradingKey - 2026 年 2 月，东京股市再次成为全球金融市场的风口浪尖。在高市早苗领导的自由民主党（LDP）在众议院选举中获得压倒性胜利后，日经 225 指数在短短几天内接连创下历史新高，目标直指 6 万点里程碑。</p>
<p>日经指数在 2026 年能否持续上涨？全球资本为何在高市早苗压倒性胜利后如此激进地下注？日本股市暴涨背后隐藏着哪些机遇与风险？</p>
<h2>日本股市加速上涨的驱动因素是什么？</h2>
<p>日本股市近期的急剧上涨并非随机的短期波动，而是多重积极因素汇聚的结果：政治清晰、扩张性财政政策的预期、相关全球行业的繁荣以及企业基本面的改善。这是一场由政策和基本面共同驱动的 “共识性反弹”。</p>
<p>2026 年 2 月 8 日，日本举行了众议院选举，由高市早苗领导的自由民主党（LDP）及其执政联盟获得压倒性胜利。LDP 单独赢得 316 个席位，创下自 1955 年成立以来的纪录。</p>
<p>市场普遍认为，稳定的政治局势将为经济政策的顺利实施铺平道路，显著提升投资者信心，并成为股市暴涨的直接触发因素。</p>
<p>高市早苗的经济政策被称为 “Sanaenomics”，继承并发展自 “Abenomics”，其核心目标是通过扩张性财政支出和宽松货币政策促进经济复苏。</p>
<p>据报道，高市内阁计划投资 6.4 万亿日元以支持半导体、人工智能（AI）和国防等战略产业，同时推动暂停两年的食品消费税；与此同时，日本政府推出了总额超过 21 万亿日元的经济刺激计划，旨在刺激消费并支持产业升级。</p>
<p>在货币政策方面，尽管日本银行（BoJ）已将利率小幅提高至 0.75%，但仍然是全球最宽松的货币政策之一，并通过购买 ETF（持有约 83 万亿日元）继续为市场提供 “底线” 流动性支持。</p>
<h2>高市早苗的选举胜利为何对日本股市有利？</h2>
<p>全球资本重注高市早苗的根本原因在于，她的选举胜利增强了市场对 “政策驱动经济复苏” 的预期，而她的政策立场与股市利益紧密契合。</p>
<p>作为安倍晋三的忠实支持者，高市早苗坚持 “Abenomics” 的核心逻辑，专注于通过 “宽松财政 + 宽松货币” 政策刺激经济增长和企业盈利。</p>
<p>在选举期间，高市早苗多次强调推进公司治理改革的必要性，鼓励企业增加股息和股票回购，以提高股本回报率（ROE）。市场预期高市的稳定政府将进一步推进这些改革，帮助提升日本股市的估值水平，吸引更多长期资本流入。</p>
<h2>国际资本是否加速流入日本？</h2>
<p>在高市的选举胜利和股市持续上涨的背景下，国际资本明显呈现加速流入日本股市的趋势，数据和分析师预测，未来几个月外国流入可能出现 “爆炸性增长”。</p>
<p>早在 2025 年，外国对日本股票的净购买量已达到自 2013 年以来的最高水平，这一趋势持续到 2026 年初。</p>
<p>在高市于 2 月 8 日获得压倒性胜利后，外国对日本股票的热情加剧。2 月 9 日，东京证券交易所的净外资流入在一天内超过 1 万亿日元，创下过去六个月的新日高。</p>
<p>野村证券首席股票策略师北冈智和表示，如果市场预期高市政府在适度财政扩张的前提下实施增长战略，未来三个月的净外资流入可能高达 10 万亿日元（约合 641 亿美元）。这一规模是 2025 年平均每月外资流入的五倍，甚至可能超过安倍时代的水平。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，外资已成为日本股市的主导力量。伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据显示，外资占东京证券交易所交易量的 65%。这意味着日本股市的短期表现将对外资流动高度敏感；如果外资流入停止或转为流出，可能会引发短期市场调整。</p>
<h2>日元贬值对日本股市的影响是什么？</h2>
<p>尽管日本股市正在飙升，日元却持续贬值。日元贬值是一把 “双刃剑”——它可以提升出口导向型公司的利润，但也带来进口成本上升和资产减值等风险。</p>
<p>日元贬值显著提升了以出口为导向公司的利润。日本是一个以出口为导向的经济体，许多上市公司如丰田、本田和东京电子的海外收入占比非常高。日元对美元贬值 1%，TOPIX 成分公司的平均利润将增加 0.7%。</p>
<p>此外，日元贬值增强了日本产品在全球市场的价格竞争力，帮助公司扩大海外市场份额，进一步提高盈利能力。</p>
<p>然而，过度的日元贬值带来了多重风险，主要是推高进口成本，挤压以国内需求为导向公司的利润。日本对能源和原材料的进口依赖度很高；日元的持续贬值显著增加了企业的进口成本，尤其是非出口导向的小型和中型企业（SMEs），其利润空间可能受到严重挤压，可能影响整体市场的盈利能力。</p>
<h2>2026 年日本股市的预测？是否会继续创下新高？</h2>
<p>根据当前市场环境、政策预期和资本趋势，预计日本股市在 2026 年将保持上升势头，有可能挑战 60,000 点大关。然而，投资者应保持警惕，注意潜在风险；短期内可能随时出现调整，整体走势可能呈现 “波动上行” 的格局。</p>
<p>摩根大通对 2026 年日本股市持乐观态度，表示只要美元/日元汇率不突破 165，10 年期日本国债收益率保持在 3% 以下，股市的上升趋势不太可能改变。该行预测在基准情景下，日经指数将在年末达到 57,000 点，在乐观情景下可能超过 60,000 点。同时，警告称过度的日元贬值和快速上升的利率是两个关键风险；如果这些 “临界点” 被突破，股市可能面临约 10% 的调整。</p>
<p>高盛指出，企业基本面的改善是日本股市持续上涨的核心支撑；51% 的公司超出盈利预期，预计日本企业的盈利能力将在 2026 年继续上升。该公司预测日经指数将在年末达到 58,500 点，并建议投资者关注海外收入占比较高和分红能力强的公司。同时也警告称，高估值和财政政策的不确定性可能引发短期市场波动。</p>
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南方日经225

1329

华夏野村日经225ETF

华安日经225ETF

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

<p>东京股市正在经历一波上涨，日经 225 指数在高市早苗在众议院选举中取得压倒性胜利后，目标锁定 60,000 点。这一反弹受到政治稳定、扩张性财政政策预期以及企业基本面改善的推动。高市早苗的经济战略建立在 “安倍经济学” 基础上，包括对战略性行业的大规模投资和刺激消费的方案。国际资本正越来越多地流入日本，净外资购买达到创纪录水平，显示出投资者对日本市场未来的强烈信心</p>

<p>TradingKey - February 2026, the Tokyo stock market has once again become the eye of the storm in global financial markets. Following Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) securing a landslide victory in the House of Representatives election, the Nikkei 225 index has hit consecutive record highs in just a few days, targeting the 60,000-point milestone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 2026 年 2 月，东京股市再次成为全球金融市场的风口浪尖。在高市早苗领导的自由民主党（LDP）在众议院选举中获得压倒性胜利后，日经 225 指数在短短几天内接连创下历史新高，目标直指 6 万点里程碑。</p>
</div><p>Will the Nikkei index sustain its rally in 2026? Why is global capital betting so aggressively on Sanae Takaichi following her landslide victory? What opportunities and risks are hidden behind the surge in the Japanese stock market?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经指数在 2026 年能否持续上涨？全球资本为何在高市早苗压倒性胜利后如此激进地下注？日本股市暴涨背后隐藏着哪些机遇与风险？</p>
</div><h2>What is driving the accelerated rise in the Japanese stock market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本股市加速上涨的驱动因素是什么？</h2>
</div><p>The recent sharp rise in the Japanese stock market is not a random short-term movement, but rather the result of a confluence of multiple positive factors: political clarity, expectations of expansionary fiscal policy, increased prosperity in relevant global industries, and improved corporate fundamentals. It is a &#34;consensus rally&#34; driven by both policy and fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本股市近期的急剧上涨并非随机的短期波动，而是多重积极因素汇聚的结果：政治清晰、扩张性财政政策的预期、相关全球行业的繁荣以及企业基本面的改善。这是一场由政策和基本面共同驱动的 “共识性反弹”。</p>
</div><p>On February 8, 2026, Japan held its House of Representatives election, where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Sanae Takaichi, and its ruling coalition secured a landslide victory. The LDP alone won 316 seats, setting a record for the party since its founding in 1955.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年 2 月 8 日，日本举行了众议院选举，由高市早苗领导的自由民主党（LDP）及其执政联盟获得压倒性胜利。LDP 单独赢得 316 个席位，创下自 1955 年成立以来的纪录。</p>
</div><p>The market generally believes that a stable political situation will clear the way for the smooth implementation of economic policies, significantly boosting investor confidence and serving as the direct trigger for the stock market surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场普遍认为，稳定的政治局势将为经济政策的顺利实施铺平道路，显著提升投资者信心，并成为股市暴涨的直接触发因素。</p>
</div><p>Sanae Takaichi’s economic policies, dubbed &#34;Sanaenomics,&#34; inherit and evolve from &#34;Abenomics,&#34; with the core objective of boosting economic recovery through expansionary fiscal spending and loose monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高市早苗的经济政策被称为 “Sanaenomics”，继承并发展自 “Abenomics”，其核心目标是通过扩张性财政支出和宽松货币政策促进经济复苏。</p>
</div><p>Reportedly, the Takaichi cabinet plans to invest 6.4 trillion yen to support strategic industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), and defense, while also pushing for a two-year suspension of the food consumption tax; meanwhile, the Japanese government has launched an economic stimulus package totaling over 21 trillion yen designed to boost consumption and support industrial upgrading. It is reported that the Takaichi cabinet plans to invest 6.4 trillion yen to support strategic industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), and defense, while pushing for a two-year suspension of the food consumption tax; concurrently, the Japanese government has introduced an economic stimulus package exceeding 21 trillion yen to revitalize consumption and support industrial upgrading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据报道，高市内阁计划投资 6.4 万亿日元以支持半导体、人工智能（AI）和国防等战略产业，同时推动暂停两年的食品消费税；与此同时，日本政府推出了总额超过 21 万亿日元的经济刺激计划，旨在刺激消费并支持产业升级。</p>
</div><p>Regarding monetary policy, although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has modestly raised interest rates to 0.75%, it remains among the most accommodative globally and continues to provide &#34;floor&#34; liquidity support to the market by purchasing ETFs (with holdings of approximately 83 trillion yen).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在货币政策方面，尽管日本银行（BoJ）已将利率小幅提高至 0.75%，但仍然是全球最宽松的货币政策之一，并通过购买 ETF（持有约 83 万亿日元）继续为市场提供 “底线” 流动性支持。</p>
</div><h2>Why is Sanae Takaichi’s election victory favorable for the Japanese stock market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高市早苗的选举胜利为何对日本股市有利？</h2>
</div><p>The reason global capital is betting heavily on Sanae Takaichi is fundamentally that her election victory has strengthened market expectations for &#34;policy-driven economic recovery,&#34; and her policy positions align closely with stock market interests.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球资本重注高市早苗的根本原因在于，她的选举胜利增强了市场对 “政策驱动经济复苏” 的预期，而她的政策立场与股市利益紧密契合。</p>
</div><p>As a Shinzo Abe loyalist, Takaichi adheres to the core logic of &#34;Abenomics,&#34; focusing on stimulating economic growth and corporate earnings through &#34;loose fiscal + loose monetary&#34; policies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为安倍晋三的忠实支持者，高市早苗坚持 “Abenomics” 的核心逻辑，专注于通过 “宽松财政 + 宽松货币” 政策刺激经济增长和企业盈利。</p>
</div><p>During the election campaign, Sanae Takaichi repeatedly emphasized the need to advance corporate governance reforms, encouraging companies to increase dividends and stock buybacks to improve Return on Equity (ROE). The market expects that Takaichi’s stable government will further advance these reforms, helping to enhance the valuation levels of the Japanese stock market and attract more long-term capital inflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在选举期间，高市早苗多次强调推进公司治理改革的必要性，鼓励企业增加股息和股票回购，以提高股本回报率（ROE）。市场预期高市的稳定政府将进一步推进这些改革，帮助提升日本股市的估值水平，吸引更多长期资本流入。</p>
</div><h2>Is international capital accelerating its flow into Japan?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>国际资本是否加速流入日本？</h2>
</div><p>Against the backdrop of Takaichi’s election victory and the sustained rally in the stock market, international capital has shown a clear trend of accelerating into the Japanese stock market, with data and analyst forecasts suggesting that foreign inflows could see &#34;explosive growth&#34; in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高市的选举胜利和股市持续上涨的背景下，国际资本明显呈现加速流入日本股市的趋势，数据和分析师预测，未来几个月外国流入可能出现 “爆炸性增长”。</p>
</div><p>As early as 2025, net foreign purchases of Japanese stocks reached their highest level since 2013, a trend that has continued into early 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早在 2025 年，外国对日本股票的净购买量已达到自 2013 年以来的最高水平，这一趋势持续到 2026 年初。</p>
</div><p>Following Takaichi’s landslide victory on February 8, foreign enthusiasm for Japanese stocks intensified. On February 9, net foreign inflows to the Tokyo Stock Exchange exceeded 1 trillion yen in a single day, setting a new daily high for the past six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高市于 2 月 8 日获得压倒性胜利后，外国对日本股票的热情加剧。2 月 9 日，东京证券交易所的净外资流入在一天内超过 1 万亿日元，创下过去六个月的新日高。</p>
</div><p>Tomokazu Kitaoka, Chief Equity Strategist at Nomura Securities, stated that if the market expects the Takaichi government to implement a growth strategy under the premise of moderate fiscal expansion, net foreign inflows could reach as high as 10 trillion yen (approximately $64.1 billion) over the next three months. This volume is five times the average monthly foreign inflow in 2025 and could even surpass the levels seen during the Abe era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村证券首席股票策略师北冈智和表示，如果市场预期高市政府在适度财政扩张的前提下实施增长战略，未来三个月的净外资流入可能高达 10 万亿日元（约合 641 亿美元）。这一规模是 2025 年平均每月外资流入的五倍，甚至可能超过安倍时代的水平。</p>
</div><p>It is worth noting that foreign capital has become the dominant force in the Japanese stock market. London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data shows that foreign capital accounts for 65% of the trading volume on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This means that the short-term performance of the Japanese stock market will be highly sensitive to foreign capital flows; should foreign inflows stop or turn into outflows, a short-term market correction could be triggered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，外资已成为日本股市的主导力量。伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据显示，外资占东京证券交易所交易量的 65%。这意味着日本股市的短期表现将对外资流动高度敏感；如果外资流入停止或转为流出，可能会引发短期市场调整。</p>
</div><h2>What impact does yen depreciation have on the Japanese stock market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日元贬值对日本股市的影响是什么？</h2>
</div><p>While the Japanese stock market is surging, the yen continues to depreciate. Yen depreciation is a &#34;double-edged sword&#34;—it can boost the profits of export-oriented companies, but it also brings risks such as rising import costs and asset impairments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管日本股市正在飙升，日元却持续贬值。日元贬值是一把 “双刃剑”——它可以提升出口导向型公司的利润，但也带来进口成本上升和资产减值等风险。</p>
</div><p>Yen depreciation significantly boosts the profits of export-oriented companies. Japan is an export-oriented economy, and many listed companies such as Toyota, Honda, and Tokyo Electron have a very high proportion of overseas revenue. For every 1% depreciation of the yen against the dollar, the average profit of TOPIX component companies increases by 0.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元贬值显著提升了以出口为导向公司的利润。日本是一个以出口为导向的经济体，许多上市公司如丰田、本田和东京电子的海外收入占比非常高。日元对美元贬值 1%，TOPIX 成分公司的平均利润将增加 0.7%。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, a weaker yen enhances the price competitiveness of Japanese products in global markets, helping companies expand their overseas market share and further improve profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，日元贬值增强了日本产品在全球市场的价格竞争力，帮助公司扩大海外市场份额，进一步提高盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>However, excessive yen depreciation brings multiple risks, primarily driving up import costs and squeezing the profits of domestic demand-oriented companies. Japan is highly dependent on imports of energy and raw materials; the continuous depreciation of the yen has significantly increased import costs for businesses, especially non-export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), whose profit margins may be severely squeezed, potentially impacting overall market profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，过度的日元贬值带来了多重风险，主要是推高进口成本，挤压以国内需求为导向公司的利润。日本对能源和原材料的进口依赖度很高；日元的持续贬值显著增加了企业的进口成本，尤其是非出口导向的小型和中型企业（SMEs），其利润空间可能受到严重挤压，可能影响整体市场的盈利能力。</p>
</div><h2>Forecast for the Japanese stock market in 2026? Will it continue to reach new highs?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年日本股市的预测？是否会继续创下新高？</h2>
</div><p>Based on the current market environment, policy expectations, and capital trends, the Japanese stock market is expected to maintain its upward momentum in 2026, with the possibility of challenging the 60,000-point mark. However, investors should remain alert to hidden risks; short-term corrections could occur at any time, and the overall pattern will likely be one of &#34;volatile upward movement.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据当前市场环境、政策预期和资本趋势，预计日本股市在 2026 年将保持上升势头，有可能挑战 60,000 点大关。然而，投资者应保持警惕，注意潜在风险；短期内可能随时出现调整，整体走势可能呈现 “波动上行” 的格局。</p>
</div><p>J.P. Morgan expressed a bullish outlook on the Japanese stock market for 2026, stating that as long as the USD/JPY exchange rate does not break above 165 and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield stays below 3%, the upward trend in the stock market is unlikely to change. The bank predicts that in a base-case scenario, the Nikkei index will reach 57,000 points by year-end, potentially exceeding 60,000 points in a bullish scenario. Meanwhile, it warned that excessive yen depreciation and rapidly rising interest rates are two key risks to watch; if these &#34;critical points&#34; are breached, the stock market could face a correction of approximately 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通对 2026 年日本股市持乐观态度，表示只要美元/日元汇率不突破 165，10 年期日本国债收益率保持在 3% 以下，股市的上升趋势不太可能改变。该行预测在基准情景下，日经指数将在年末达到 57,000 点，在乐观情景下可能超过 60,000 点。同时，警告称过度的日元贬值和快速上升的利率是两个关键风险；如果这些 “临界点” 被突破，股市可能面临约 10% 的调整。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs pointed out that improvements in corporate fundamentals are the core support for the sustained rise of the Japanese stock market; with 51% of companies beating earnings expectations, the profitability of Japanese firms will continue to rise in 2026. The firm predicts the Nikkei index will reach 58,500 points by year-end and advises investors to focus on companies with high proportions of overseas revenue and strong dividend capacities. It also cautioned that high valuations and fiscal policy uncertainty could trigger short-term market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛指出，企业基本面的改善是日本股市持续上涨的核心支撑；51% 的公司超出盈利预期，预计日本企业的盈利能力将在 2026 年继续上升。该公司预测日经指数将在年末达到 58,500 点，并建议投资者关注海外收入占比较高和分红能力强的公司。同时也警告称，高估值和财政政策的不确定性可能引发短期市场波动。</p>
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日经指数是否会达到 60,000 点？全球资本为何押注高市早苗？日本股市在 2026 年是否会继续创下新高？