<p>比特币 [BTC] 在超过一周的时间里一直在 $65K 以上盘整，此前在过去三个月中从 $126K 下跌了 46% 至 $60K。尽管市场情绪疲软，但整体卖压已显著减轻。</p>
<p>根据 VanEck 分析师的说法，由数字资产研究负责人 Mathew Siggel 领导，持有 BTC 1-2 年的人在 2025 年底和 2026 年初是最大的卖家。然而，由于大多数人（以平均价格 $72K 买入）现在处于亏损状态，这一群体的抛售已减少。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“在过去一个月中，持有超过 1 年的老股东的卖出量显著下降，预计 2 月的总卖出量为 517k BTC。在 1 年至 2 年的区间内，代币销售下降最为明显，降至 190k 的速度。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-115326.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-115326.png"/></p>
<p>来源：VanEck</p>
<p>Sigel 认为比特币的分配正在 ‘放缓’，但警告投资者可能仍会遭受痛苦的损失。</p>
<p>到目前为止，已实现的损失已超过 220 亿美元，突显出资本外逃加剧以及缺乏长期持有 BTC 的信心。</p>
<h2><strong>市场谨慎依旧</strong></h2>
<p>也就是说，价格下跌对矿工收入产生了不利影响，可能加剧了矿工危机和不具竞争力的参与者退出。这一点通过比特币网络的哈希率（挖掘 BTC 所需的计算能力）下降得以体现。</p>
<p>根据 VanEck 的数据，网络的哈希率在过去 90 天内下降了 14%。然而，分析师补充道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“持续的 90 天哈希率下降相对不常见。这些哈希率收缩的时期在历史上通常会在随后的 90 天内带来强劲的比特币回报。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-130030.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-130030.png"/></p>
<p>来源：VanEck</p>
<p>如果得到验证，这可能是市场的短期缓解。而对加密市场结构法案 CLARITY Act 通过的预期上升，可能进一步帮助稳定比特币价格。</p>
<p>即便如此，市场仍然存在较大的下行风险头寸。根据 Glassnode 数据，期权流动和偏斜严重倾向于对冲下行风险。值得注意的是，卖权偏斜保持在高位（对卖权的需求，熊市押注）相对高于买权（牛市押注）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Glassnode-Puts.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Glassnode-Puts.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>换句话说，尽管 CLARITY Act 通过的可能性有所改善，投资者仍不希望被再次下跌所惊讶。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最终总结</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>VanEck 表示，比特币的主要卖家（持有 1-2 年的人）在 BTC 跌破 $72K 后显著减少了抛售。</em></li>
<li><em>这家资产管理公司预测 BTC 可能在第二季度复苏，引用了哈希率收缩的历史模式。</em></li>
</ul>

RIOT

<p>比特币在经历了从 126,000 美元跌至 60,000 美元的重大下跌后，已稳定在 65,000 美元以上。卖压有所减轻，尤其是那些以平均 72,000 美元价格购买比特币的持有者。尽管卖出减少，但实现的损失已达到 220 亿美元。比特币网络的哈希率在过去 90 天内下降了 14%，但这种收缩在历史上通常预示着强劲的回报。市场仍然保持谨慎，投资者在对下行风险进行对冲，尽管由于潜在的监管改善，第二季度的复苏仍然令人期待</p>

<p>Bitcoin [BTC] has been consolidating above $65K for over a week, after dropping 46% from $126K to $60K over the past three months. Despite the weak sentiment, however, overall selling pressure has reduced significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币 [BTC] 在超过一周的时间里一直在 $65K 以上盘整，此前在过去三个月中从 $126K 下跌了 46% 至 $60K。尽管市场情绪疲软，但整体卖压已显著减轻。</p>
</div><p>According to VanEck analysts, led by head of digital assets research Mathew Siggel, those who’ve held BTC for 1-2 years were the largest sellers late 2025 and early 2026. However, this cohort has reduced the offloading since most of them (who bought at an average price of $72K) are now underwater.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 VanEck 分析师的说法，由数字资产研究负责人 Mathew Siggel 领导，持有 BTC 1-2 年的人在 2025 年底和 2026 年初是最大的卖家。然而，由于大多数人（以平均价格 $72K 买入）现在处于亏损状态，这一群体的抛售已减少。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Over the past month, selling from older cohorts, &gt;1yr, has fallen significantly to an expected total of 517k BTC in February. In the 1yr-2yr band, token sales have dropped the most dramatically, falling to a pace of 190k.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“在过去一个月中，持有超过 1 年的老股东的卖出量显著下降，预计 2 月的总卖出量为 517k BTC。在 1 年至 2 年的区间内，代币销售下降最为明显，降至 190k 的速度。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-115326.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-115326.png"/></p>
<p>Source: VanEck</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：VanEck</p>
</div><p>Sigel concluded that Bitcoin distribution was ‘slowing,’ but warned that investors might still take painful losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sigel 认为比特币的分配正在 ‘放缓’，但警告投资者可能仍会遭受痛苦的损失。</p>
</div><p>So far, realized losses have crossed $22 billion, underscoring rising capitulation and a lack of conviction to hold BTC for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，已实现的损失已超过 220 亿美元，突显出资本外逃加剧以及缺乏长期持有 BTC 的信心。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Market caution persists</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市场谨慎依旧</strong></h2>
</div><p>That said, the decline has adversely affected miner revenue and likely exacerbated the miner crisis and exit of uncompetitive players. This was illustrated by the drop in the Bitcoin network’s hash rate (the computational power required to mine BTC).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，价格下跌对矿工收入产生了不利影响，可能加剧了矿工危机和不具竞争力的参与者退出。这一点通过比特币网络的哈希率（挖掘 BTC 所需的计算能力）下降得以体现。</p>
</div><p>According to VanEck, the network’s hash rate has declined by 14% over the past 90 days. However, the analysts added,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 VanEck 的数据，网络的哈希率在过去 90 天内下降了 14%。然而，分析师补充道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Sustained 90-day hash rate drawdowns are relatively uncommon. These periods of hash rate contraction have historically preceded strong forward BTC returns over the subsequent 90 days.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“持续的 90 天哈希率下降相对不常见。这些哈希率收缩的时期在历史上通常会在随后的 90 天内带来强劲的比特币回报。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-130030.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-21-130030.png"/></p>
<p>Source: VanEck</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：VanEck</p>
</div><p>This may be short-term relief for the market if validated. And the rising expectation of passage of the crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, could further help stabilize the Bitcoin price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果得到验证，这可能是市场的短期缓解。而对加密市场结构法案 CLARITY Act 通过的预期上升，可能进一步帮助稳定比特币价格。</p>
</div><p>Even so, there was heavy positioning for downside risk. According to Glassnode data, Options flows and skew heavily leaned towards hedging against downside risk. Notably, Put skew remained elevated (demand for puts, bearish bets) was relatively higher than calls (bullish bets).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，市场仍然存在较大的下行风险头寸。根据 Glassnode 数据，期权流动和偏斜严重倾向于对冲下行风险。值得注意的是，卖权偏斜保持在高位（对卖权的需求，熊市押注）相对高于买权（牛市押注）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Glassnode-Puts.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Glassnode-Puts.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>Put differently, investors didn’t want to be surprised by another leg down despite the potential recovery amid improving passage odds for the CLARITY Act.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，尽管 CLARITY Act 通过的可能性有所改善，投资者仍不希望被再次下跌所惊讶。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Summary</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最终总结</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>VanEck said that Bitcoin’s main sellers (1-2 year holders) have significantly reduced their dumping spree after BTC dropped below $72K.</em></li>
<li><em>The asset manager projected that BTC could recover in Q2, citing historical patterns of hash rate contraction.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>VanEck 表示，比特币的主要卖家（持有 1-2 年的人）在 BTC 跌破 $72K 后显著减少了抛售。</em></li>
<li><em>这家资产管理公司预测 BTC 可能在第二季度复苏，引用了哈希率收缩的历史模式。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Bitcoin: Is ‘slowing’ distribution a relief after $22B in losses?

- 比特币 recent price action shows consolidation above $65K amid reduced selling pressure.
- VanEck analysts noted significant drop in sales from long-term holders, projecting potential recovery.
- Market caution remains, driven by high downside risk positioning and miner revenue declines.

Amb Crypto

Riot Platforms

Hut 8 Mining

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

Terawulf

Coinbase

HIVE Digital Tech

Marathon Digital

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Global X Blockchain & Bitcoin Strategy ETF

American Bitcoin

iShares Blockchain And Tech ETF

Inv Alerian Galaxy Blockchain Users & Decentralized Com ETF

Global X Bitcoin Covered Call ETF

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

纳斯达克 NexGen 经济 ETF - Reality Shares

2 倍做多 MSTR ETF - T-Rex

Global X Blockchain ETF

2 倍做多 MARA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 Coinbase ETF - Leverage Shares

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay ETF

GraniteShares 2x Long MSTR Daily ETF

Valkyrie Bitcoin and Ether Strategy ETF

COIN 周收益 ETF - Roundhill

2 倍做多 MSTR ETF - Defiance

Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF

区块链 ETF - Amplify

Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF

Bitwise Crypto Innovators ETF

Bitwise MARA Option Income Strategy ETF

2 倍做多加密货币行业 ETF - Direxion

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

Invesco Alerian Galaxy Crypto Economy ETF

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd MSTRMnETF

Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF

Defiance Leveraged Long + Inc MSTR ETF

比特币：在损失 220 亿美元后，“放缓” 的分配是否让人感到宽慰？