<p>美国最高法院可能以 6-3 的投票结果裁定反对总统唐纳德·特朗普利用国际紧急法案征收关税，但他似乎决心继续他在过去一年中对美国经济进行的实验，在此期间他将关税提高到自 1930 年代以来未曾见过的水平。</p>
<p>在 2 月 20 日星期五的白宫新闻发布会上，特朗普对关税的经济影响做出了一系列错误的陈述，并承诺将用法院拒绝的法律替代——甚至增加——这些关税。</p>
<p>“这很荒谬，但没关系。因为我们还有其他方法，很多其他方法，” 总统说。“这些数字可能远远超过我们已经征收的数千亿。”</p>
<p>关于他的关税，他说：“我们打破了所有记录，而且我们还在继续打破。”</p>
<p>到星期五结束时，特朗普表示他将征收一系列新的关税，包括 10% 的普遍关税。然后在星期六，他突然将关税提高到 15%，这是他所使用的新法律条款允许的最高限额。</p>
<p>“在接下来的几个月里，特朗普政府将确定并发布新的合法关税，” 他在 Truth Social 上的帖子中说。</p>
<h2>重新调整，而非重新中心</h2>
<p>对总统来说，关税是全球化的解药，是迫使更多制造业回到美国、减少国家对外国产品依赖和降低贸易赤字的一种方式。</p>
<p>但到目前为止，经济证据并不支持他的观点。特朗普的关税似乎主要是重新调整了贸易，给美国公司带来了巨大的成本。</p>
<p>就在最高法院发布裁决的前一天，美国政府报告了 2025 年的年度贸易数据，包括几项与特朗普的说法相矛盾的指标。</p>
<p>数据显示，贸易赤字——美国从其他国家进口与出口之间的差距——在 12 月继续扩大，去年商品的年度贸易赤字达到了创纪录的高位。美国服务业的出口，作为美国经济的强项，帮助减少了整体贸易赤字。</p>
<p>但特朗普对此几乎没有关注。</p>
<p>总统愤怒的一个来源——与中国的贸易赤字——确实缩小了。2025 年，中国进口下降了近 30%。</p>
<p>但美国对中国的出口也下降了，包括大豆。尽管美国企业和消费者可能从中国购买的商品减少了，但来自其他市场（如越南和台湾）的进口却激增。</p>
<p>与越南、墨西哥、印度和其他市场的贸易赤字达到了历史最高水平。</p>
<h2>行业不均衡</h2>
<p>美国经济总体强劲，一些制造业部门表现良好。但这些增长主要由电子和航空航天等对关税影响较小的行业主导。面临高额关税的其他行业，如汽车制造商，则一直在挣扎。</p>
<p>制造业产出的增长尚未转化为更多的就业机会。过去一年，美国制造商裁减了超过 80,000 个职位。</p>
<p>总统忽视了任何与他的信息不符的数据。</p>
<p>在 2 月初，特朗普在 Truth Social 上声称，贸易赤字 “因对其他公司和国家征收的关税而减少了 78%”。</p>
<p>他补充说，这将在今年 “首次进入正值领域，时隔数十年”。不清楚总统所指的具体指标是什么，白宫也没有澄清。</p>
<p>美国商品贸易赤字从前一年上升并不特别不寻常；美国经济继续按年增长，意味着美国人变得更富有，购买了更多的外国商品。但这一趋势与特朗普所声明的目标以及他关于关税影响的说法形成了对比。</p>
<h2>移动贸易赤字的指针</h2>
<p>对特朗普来说，贸易赤字长期以来一直是经济疲软的标志。</p>
<p>在 2025 年 4 月，他利用最高法院刚刚审查的法律宣布美国贸易赤字是国际经济紧急情况，并征收关税以试图减少它们。尽管一些经济学家担心巨大的贸易赤字，但当时许多人表示，贸易赤字既不不寻常也不是紧急情况，因为美国已经运行了几十年。</p>
<p>经济学家们对关税是否真的会减少贸易赤字的看法也各不相同，贸易赤字受到多种因素的驱动，包括政府支出和美元的价值。</p>
<p>一些经济学家表示，关税可能会减少贸易赤字。但那是因为这些关税会减缓美国经济，这将使美国人变得更贫穷，减少购买外国商品的能力。</p>
<p>到去年年底，月度贸易赤字朝着特朗普所希望的方向发展。在 10 月，它达到了自 2009 年以来的最低月度水平，特朗普政府大声宣称其政策的成功。</p>
<p>但更仔细的审查显示，这一下降是由政策波动引起的奇怪波动所驱动的。这包括黄金贸易的巨大波动，投资者将其作为对关税的对冲，以及受到关税威胁影响的制药行业。</p>
<p>还有一个问题是这种趋势会持续多久。企业在关税生效之前囤积了大量商品，因此后来不需要进口那么多。但这些库存不会永远持续。</p>
<p>在 11 月和 12 月，美国进口和贸易赤字显著反弹。这一增长部分是由于进口了昂贵的半导体，这些半导体被数据中心用于生产人工智能（AI），而总统已将其排除在关税之外。随着人工智能推动美国经济增长和股市上涨，总统对限制这些芯片的进口持谨慎态度。</p>
<p>美国外交关系委员会的经济学家布拉德·塞特塞尔表示，他认为如果关税带来的更高收入有助于缩小政府赤字，并且政府不将这些钱用于其他地方，那么贸易赤字可能会下降。</p>
<p>但由于特朗普将电子产品和药品等主要商品类别免除关税，进口和贸易赤字仍然保持在高位。</p>
<p>“如果你对消费中进口部分征收足够高的税，我认为这将降低贸易赤字，” 他说。“不过，这样做的代价是本届政府不愿意承担的。”</p>
<h2>前方的不确定性</h2>
<p>很难说未来一年贸易趋势将走向何方。这可能是一个充满不确定性的一年：特朗普在周五表示，他将利用 1974 年贸易法中的第 122 条款，实施一项新的 10% 关税，该关税仅持续 150 天。之后，关税需要得到国会的批准或由不同的机构替代。</p>
<p>该法规与贸易赤字无关，而是与 “国际收支赤字” 相关——当一个国家对其他国家的支付超过其从这些国家的收入时。贸易赤字与国际收支相关，但并不完全相同，一些特朗普的批评者认为，新的关税理由也是站不住脚的。</p>
<p>尽管存在所有的不确定性，有一点是明确的：到目前为止，特朗普的关税并没有在解决他最初所说的紧急问题上发挥太大作用。</p>
<p>“关税没有成功振兴美国制造业，” 塞特塞尔说。“而且关税没有成功在整体贸易赤字上产生实质性的变化。” NYTIMES</p>

纳斯达克 100 平均加权指数 ETF - First Trust

纳指 100 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克 OMX 交易所

纳斯达克综合指数 ETF - Fidelity

<p>美国最高法院裁定特朗普总统使用紧急法案征收关税的做法不合法，但他计划继续提高关税，声称这对减少贸易赤字和促进美国制造业至关重要。尽管他的说法如此，经济数据显示贸易赤字已扩大，关税并未有效地将制造业转回美国。虽然某些行业表现良好，但整体制造业就业岗位却在减少。特朗普关于关税对贸易赤字影响的说法仍未得到证实，因为来自其他国家的进口激增</p>

<p>THE US Supreme Court may have ruled 6-3 against President Donald Trump’s use of an international emergency law to impose tariffs, but he seems intent on continuing the experiment he has run with the US economy over the past year, in which he has raised tariffs to levels not seen since the 1930s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国最高法院可能以 6-3 的投票结果裁定反对总统唐纳德·特朗普利用国际紧急法案征收关税，但他似乎决心继续他在过去一年中对美国经济进行的实验，在此期间他将关税提高到自 1930 年代以来未曾见过的水平。</p>
</div><p>In a news conference at the White House on Friday (Feb 20), Trump made a series of false claims about the economic impact of tariffs, and he promised to replace – or even increase – them using laws other than the one the court rejected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月 20 日星期五的白宫新闻发布会上，特朗普对关税的经济影响做出了一系列错误的陈述，并承诺将用法院拒绝的法律替代——甚至增加——这些关税。</p>
</div><p>“It’s ridiculous, but it’s okay. Because we have other ways, numerous other ways,” the president said. “The numbers can be far greater than the hundreds of billions we’ve already taken in.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这很荒谬，但没关系。因为我们还有其他方法，很多其他方法，” 总统说。“这些数字可能远远超过我们已经征收的数千亿。”</p>
</div><p>On his tariffs, he said: “We broke every record in the book, and we are continuing to do so.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于他的关税，他说：“我们打破了所有记录，而且我们还在继续打破。”</p>
</div><p>By the end of Friday, Trump said he would impose a new set of levies, including a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff. Then on Saturday, he suddenly raised the tariffs to 15 per cent, the limit allowed by the new legal provision he was using.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到星期五结束时，特朗普表示他将征收一系列新的关税，包括 10% 的普遍关税。然后在星期六，他突然将关税提高到 15%，这是他所使用的新法律条款允许的最高限额。</p>
</div><p>“During the next short number of months, the Trump administration will determine and issue the new and legally permissible tariffs,” he said in a post on Truth Social.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在接下来的几个月里，特朗普政府将确定并发布新的合法关税，” 他在 Truth Social 上的帖子中说。</p>
</div><h2>Reshuffling, not recentring</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>重新调整，而非重新中心</h2>
</div><p>To the president, tariffs are the antidote to globalisation, a way to force more manufacturing back to the US, reduce the country’s reliance on foreign products and lower the trade deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对总统来说，关税是全球化的解药，是迫使更多制造业回到美国、减少国家对外国产品依赖和降低贸易赤字的一种方式。</p>
</div><p>But the economic evidence so far has not been in his favour. Instead of shifting manufacturing back into the US, Trump’s tariffs mostly appear to have reshuffled trade, at great cost to American companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但到目前为止，经济证据并不支持他的观点。特朗普的关税似乎主要是重新调整了贸易，给美国公司带来了巨大的成本。</p>
</div><p>Just the day before the Supreme Court issued its ruling, the US government reported annual trade data for 2025, including several metrics that contradicted Trump’s claims.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在最高法院发布裁决的前一天，美国政府报告了 2025 年的年度贸易数据，包括几项与特朗普的说法相矛盾的指标。</p>
</div><p>The data showed that the trade deficit – the gap between what the US imports from other countries and what it exports – continued to widen in December, and that the annual trade deficit in goods last year hit a record high. Exports of US services, a strength of the US economy, helped reduce the overall trade deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据显示，贸易赤字——美国从其他国家进口与出口之间的差距——在 12 月继续扩大，去年商品的年度贸易赤字达到了创纪录的高位。美国服务业的出口，作为美国经济的强项，帮助减少了整体贸易赤字。</p>
</div><p>But Trump has spent little time focusing on that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但特朗普对此几乎没有关注。</p>
</div><p>One source of the president’s anger – the trade deficit with China – did narrow. Chinese imports fell nearly 30 per cent in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总统愤怒的一个来源——与中国的贸易赤字——确实缩小了。2025 年，中国进口下降了近 30%。</p>
</div><p>But US exports to China also fell, including soybeans. And while American businesses and consumers may have bought fewer goods from China, imports from other markets, such as Vietnam and Taiwan, surged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但美国对中国的出口也下降了，包括大豆。尽管美国企业和消费者可能从中国购买的商品减少了，但来自其他市场（如越南和台湾）的进口却激增。</p>
</div><p>Trade deficits with Vietnam, Mexico, India and other markets were the largest on record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与越南、墨西哥、印度和其他市场的贸易赤字达到了历史最高水平。</p>
</div><h2>Sectoral unevenness</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>行业不均衡</h2>
</div><p>The US economy is generally strong, and some sectors of manufacturing have been doing well. But the gains have been led by industries such as electronics and aerospace that are less exposed to tariffs. Other sectors that face hefty tariffs, including auto manufacturers, have been struggling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济总体强劲，一些制造业部门表现良好。但这些增长主要由电子和航空航天等对关税影响较小的行业主导。面临高额关税的其他行业，如汽车制造商，则一直在挣扎。</p>
</div><p>Growth in manufacturing output also hasn’t yet translated into more jobs. US manufacturers cut more than 80,000 jobs in the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>制造业产出的增长尚未转化为更多的就业机会。过去一年，美国制造商裁减了超过 80,000 个职位。</p>
</div><p>The president has ignored any data that does not fit his message.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总统忽视了任何与他的信息不符的数据。</p>
</div><p>Earlier in February, Trump claimed on Truth Social that the trade deficit had “been reduced by 78 per cent because of the tariffs being charged to other companies and countries”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月初，特朗普在 Truth Social 上声称，贸易赤字 “因对其他公司和国家征收的关税而减少了 78%”。</p>
</div><p>He added that it would “go into positive territory during this year, for the first time in many decades”. It is unclear what metrics the president was referring to, and the White House did not clarify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充说，这将在今年 “首次进入正值领域，时隔数十年”。不清楚总统所指的具体指标是什么，白宫也没有澄清。</p>
</div><p>It’s not particularly unusual that the US trade deficit in goods would rise from the previous year; the US economy continued to grow on an annual basis, meaning Americans grew richer and bought more foreign goods. But the trend has contrasted with Trump’s stated goals, as well as his claims about the effects his tariffs are having.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国商品贸易赤字从前一年上升并不特别不寻常；美国经济继续按年增长，意味着美国人变得更富有，购买了更多的外国商品。但这一趋势与特朗普所声明的目标以及他关于关税影响的说法形成了对比。</p>
</div><h2>Moving the trade deficit needle</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>移动贸易赤字的指针</h2>
</div><p>For Trump, the trade deficit has long been a sign of economic weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对特朗普来说，贸易赤字长期以来一直是经济疲软的标志。</p>
</div><p>In April 2025, he used the law just reviewed by the Supreme Court to declare that US trade deficits were an international economic emergency and to impose tariffs to try to reduce them. Although some economists worry about big trade deficits, many at the time said that trade deficits were neither unusual nor an emergency, since the US had run them for decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年 4 月，他利用最高法院刚刚审查的法律宣布美国贸易赤字是国际经济紧急情况，并征收关税以试图减少它们。尽管一些经济学家担心巨大的贸易赤字，但当时许多人表示，贸易赤字既不不寻常也不是紧急情况，因为美国已经运行了几十年。</p>
</div><p>Economists also had varying takes about whether tariffs would actually reduce the trade deficit, which is driven by a variety of forces, including government spending and the value of the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家们对关税是否真的会减少贸易赤字的看法也各不相同，贸易赤字受到多种因素的驱动，包括政府支出和美元的价值。</p>
</div><p>Some economists said that tariffs might reduce the trade deficit. But that was because the levies would slow the US economy, which would make Americans poorer and less able to buy foreign goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些经济学家表示，关税可能会减少贸易赤字。但那是因为这些关税会减缓美国经济，这将使美国人变得更贫穷，减少购买外国商品的能力。</p>
</div><p>By late last year, the monthly trade deficit was going in Trump’s favoured direction. In October, it hit its lowest monthly level since 2009, and the Trump administration loudly proclaimed the success of its policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到去年年底，月度贸易赤字朝着特朗普所希望的方向发展。在 10 月，它达到了自 2009 年以来的最低月度水平，特朗普政府大声宣称其政策的成功。</p>
</div><p>But a closer examination showed that the drop was driven by odd fluctuations caused by volatile policies. That included huge swings in the trade of gold, which investors had used as a hedge against tariffs, as well as pharmaceuticals, which had been affected by the threat of tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但更仔细的审查显示，这一下降是由政策波动引起的奇怪波动所驱动的。这包括黄金贸易的巨大波动，投资者将其作为对关税的对冲，以及受到关税威胁影响的制药行业。</p>
</div><p>There was also the question of how long the trend would last. Businesses had stockpiled large amounts of goods before tariffs went into effect, so they didn’t need to import as much later. But those stockpiles wouldn’t last forever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有一个问题是这种趋势会持续多久。企业在关税生效之前囤积了大量商品，因此后来不需要进口那么多。但这些库存不会永远持续。</p>
</div><p>In November and December, US imports and the trade deficit rebounded significantly. The increase was driven in part by imports of expensive semiconductors, used by data centres to produce artificial intelligence (AI), which the president has exempted from tariffs. With AI powering US economic growth and the stock market, the president has been hesitant to clamp down on imports of these chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 11 月和 12 月，美国进口和贸易赤字显著反弹。这一增长部分是由于进口了昂贵的半导体，这些半导体被数据中心用于生产人工智能（AI），而总统已将其排除在关税之外。随着人工智能推动美国经济增长和股市上涨，总统对限制这些芯片的进口持谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations, said he believed that the trade deficit could fall if the greater revenue generated by the tariffs helped to shrink the government deficit and the government didn’t spend that money elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国外交关系委员会的经济学家布拉德·塞特塞尔表示，他认为如果关税带来的更高收入有助于缩小政府赤字，并且政府不将这些钱用于其他地方，那么贸易赤字可能会下降。</p>
</div><p>But imports and the trade deficit had remained high because Trump had exempted major categories of goods from tariffs, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由于特朗普将电子产品和药品等主要商品类别免除关税，进口和贸易赤字仍然保持在高位。</p>
</div><p>“If you tax the imported component of consumption heavily enough, in my view, it will bring the trade deficit down,” he said. “It does so at a cost, though, that this administration wasn’t willing to pay.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果你对消费中进口部分征收足够高的税，我认为这将降低贸易赤字，” 他说。“不过，这样做的代价是本届政府不愿意承担的。”</p>
</div><h2>Uncertainty ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>前方的不确定性</h2>
</div><p>It’s difficult to say where trends in trade are headed in the next year. It will likely be a year of uncertainty: Trump said on Friday that he would use a provision of a 1974 trade law known as Section 122 to impose a new 10 per cent tariff that only lasts for 150 days. After that, the tariffs would need to be approved by Congress or replaced by different authorities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难说未来一年贸易趋势将走向何方。这可能是一个充满不确定性的一年：特朗普在周五表示，他将利用 1974 年贸易法中的第 122 条款，实施一项新的 10% 关税，该关税仅持续 150 天。之后，关税需要得到国会的批准或由不同的机构替代。</p>
</div><p>That statute is linked not to trade deficits but to “balance of payments deficit” – when a country’s payments to other countries exceed its receipts from them. The trade deficit is related to the balance of payments, but it’s not exactly the same, and some critics of Trump argued that the new rationale for tariffs was also specious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该法规与贸易赤字无关，而是与 “国际收支赤字” 相关——当一个国家对其他国家的支付超过其从这些国家的收入时。贸易赤字与国际收支相关，但并不完全相同，一些特朗普的批评者认为，新的关税理由也是站不住脚的。</p>
</div><p>Despite all the uncertainty, one thing is clear: Trump’s tariffs have so far not done much to solve the emergency he said they were directed at in the first place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管存在所有的不确定性，有一点是明确的：到目前为止，特朗普的关税并没有在解决他最初所说的紧急问题上发挥太大作用。</p>
</div><p>“The tariffs did not succeed in revitalising US manufacturing,” Setser said. “And the tariffs did not succeed in meaningfully changing the overall trade deficit.” NYTIMES</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“关税没有成功振兴美国制造业，” 塞特塞尔说。“而且关税没有成功在整体贸易赤字上产生实质性的变化。” NYTIMES</p>
</div>

Trump’s trade gamble will continue despite US Supreme Court rebuke

- 美国最高法院以 6-3 驳回特朗普的关税紧急法使用。  
- 特朗普计划继续提高关税，称目的是减少贸易赤字。  
- 然而，数据显示贸易赤字持续扩大，制造业未见明显复苏。

尽管美国最高法院进行了斥责，特朗普的贸易赌博仍将继续