<p>作者：Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<p>在过去一周，尽管美国与伊朗之间的紧张局势升级，贵金属的交易大多保持横盘整理。</p>
<p>黄金的避险属性越来越弱。</p>
<p>在过去三年中，黄金经历了一场壮观的、创纪录的牛市，但根据过去一周的走势，这种光辉可能正在减退。</p>
<p>尽管有关于美国即将对伊朗进行军事打击的报道，黄金在大部分时间内仍然保持横盘，未能持续站稳每盎司 5000 美元的水平，直到周五才重新突破这一心理重要关口。根据道琼斯市场数据，黄金期货（GC00）较 1 月 29 日创下的 5318.40 美元的历史高点下跌了 4.9%。与此同时，银价（SI00）从 1 月 26 日创下的 115.08 美元的历史高点下跌了近 29%——这引发了人们对贵金属在一些人预期今年将展开的商品超级周期中的角色的质疑。</p>
<p>阅读：黄金跌破 5000 美元大关，银价因需求在春节假期期间减弱而下跌。</p>
<p>黄金对过去一周地缘政治事件的低调反应强化了许多人已经在思考的观点：贵金属的避险属性减弱，更多地表现为风险资产。考虑到从比特币（BTCUSD）到美国科技股最近的挣扎，黄金的牛市可能即将结束。自 2022 年 10 月开始上涨以来，黄金价格已上涨超过 200%；当时，黄金的交易价格约为每盎司 1640 美元。</p>
<p>投资者在过去一周获得了一些关于黄金偏好变化的线索。周三，关于美国对伊朗进行打击的猜测加剧，推动美国原油期货（CL00）（CLJ26）上涨至每桶 65 美元以上。与此同时，黄金的买盘过于疲软，未能将其价格维持在 5000 美元以上。到周四，报道称美国军方准备在本周末尽早对伊朗发动打击——这使得布伦特原油（BRN00）价格超过每桶 70 美元。但许多投资者选择了美元 DXY 的安全，而不是黄金。</p>
<p>“我们认为黄金的牛市变得越来越脆弱，” 位于费城的 Glenmede 投资策略副总裁 Michael Reynolds 表示，该公司管理着约 500 亿美元的资产。他补充说，他并不感到惊讶，贵金属的价格在 5000 美元左右停滞，因为传统上对地缘政治风险敏感的资产在 “严重高估的情况下可能会崩溃。”</p>
<p>Reynolds 指出，“从我们的角度来看，5000 美元远高于基于基本面的公允价值”，而公允价值应该更接近 3000 到 3500 美元之间。</p>
<p>周五，黄金终于在本周首次稳定地突破 5000 美元大关，最终上涨 1.7%，约为每盎司 5059 美元——尽管对美国即将对伊朗进行激进打击的预期开始减弱。</p>
<p>总统唐纳德·特朗普将做出潜在军事行动决定的时间延长了 10 到 15 天，并告诉记者，他在考虑进行有限的军事打击，以迫使伊朗同意限制其核计划。</p>
<p>位于伦敦的 Trade Nation 高级市场分析师 David Morrison 表示，周五黄金的上涨与避险买盘关系不大，更多是由于美元走弱，支持了贵金属。他将周五黄金的上涨描述为 “横盘整理”，并没有迹象表明价格会回到上个月底的历史高点。</p>
<p>观察黄金与标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）之间的 30 天相关性显示，贵金属多年来的表现越来越像股票，而不是避险交易。自黄金牛市开始以来，这种相关性一直是正向的，意味着两者通常是一起上涨或下跌的。</p>
<p>“抛物线” 式的上涨</p>
<p>黄金的多年上涨被归因于中央银行购买增加、对美国财政赤字持续的担忧以及外国投资者对美元计价资产的转变。美元走弱也起着重要作用，使得黄金对外国投资者来说变得更便宜。</p>
<p>根据 Morrison 的说法，像周五的市场走势一样，贵金属在上个月底的上涨与避险买盘的关系并没有人们想象的那么大，他补充说，1 月 29 日达到的 “抛物线顶峰” 可能标志着黄金多年牛市的结束。</p>
<p>要想从这里看到更多的上涨，黄金可能需要保持在 5000 美元以上和/或经历一次深度、持久的回调，才能在 “某种催化剂” 的推动下再次攀升，分析师表示，引用了自 2011 年以来该金属的表现记录。</p>
<p>根据 Glenmede 开发的模型，黄金目前处于其历史公允价值的第 98 百分位——这意味着条件现在适合贵金属在严重高估时变得和比特币一样波动。此外，黄金是 Glenmede 正在监测的唯一一个主要资产类别，根据该公司的模型，未来 10 年的预期回报为负。</p>
<p>位于新罕布什尔州的 Midas Discovery MIDSX 基金的投资组合经理 Tom Winmill 表示，他并不感到惊讶看到黄金在地缘政治紧张局势升级时表现得不像过去那样避险。</p>
<p>然而，与 Glenmede 的 Reynolds 不同，Winmill 表示黄金的牛市仍有很长的路要走。一个原因是，像中国这样的外国中央银行仍在购买这种贵金属，原因是美国的财政和货币政策。外国中央银行的购买——加上对降低美国利率的呼声和美元长期贬值的潜在担忧——“非常难以停止”。这使得黄金最近的走势更像是有序的整合，而不是结构性弱点的迹象，Winmill 表示。</p>
<p>对于寻求安全的投资者来说，任何在美国海外军事行动引发的波动中购买黄金作为避风港的人，可能已经完成了这一操作，他提到俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵，以及以色列与巴勒斯坦武装组织哈马斯之间的战争。</p>
<p>“短期的地缘政治事件确实会对黄金价格产生一些波动，但由于安全避风港购买的需求来源已经枯竭，因此增量需求微乎其微，” 温米尔表示。</p>
<p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>02-22-26 1200ET</p>

紫金矿业

易方达黄金矿业ETF

黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

<p>黄金最近失去了其避险资产的地位，尽管美国与伊朗的紧张局势升级，但价格仍在横盘整理。在经历了一轮创纪录的牛市后，黄金价格难以维持在每盎司 5,000 美元以上，最终收于约 5,059 美元。分析师指出，这种贵金属的表现更像是一种风险资产，牛市也显得脆弱。美元走弱和投资者偏好的变化等因素正在影响黄金的表现，这引发了人们对其在商品市场未来的疑问</p>

<p>By Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Vivien Lou Chen</p>
</div><p>The precious metal traded mostly sideways over the past week, even as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一周，尽管美国与伊朗之间的紧张局势升级，贵金属的交易大多保持横盘整理。</p>
</div><p>Gold has been acting less and less like a safe haven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金的避险属性越来越弱。</p>
</div><p>Gold has been on a spectacular, record-breaking bull run for much of the past three years - but some of the shine may be coming off the yellow metal, judging by its moves over the past week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三年中，黄金经历了一场壮观的、创纪录的牛市，但根据过去一周的走势，这种光辉可能正在减退。</p>
</div><p>Despite reports of a pending U.S. military strike on Iran, gold traded largely sideways and failed to stay sustainably above $5,000 per ounce for much of the week, until it finally retook the psychologically important threshold on Friday. Gold futures (GC00) are off 4.9% from a record high of $5,318.40 reached on Jan. 29, based on Dow Jones Market Data. Silver prices (SI00), meanwhile, have fallen almost 29% from an all-time high of $115.08 an ounce on Jan. 26 - raising questions about the role of precious metals in the commodities supercycle that some expected to unfold this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有关于美国即将对伊朗进行军事打击的报道，黄金在大部分时间内仍然保持横盘，未能持续站稳每盎司 5000 美元的水平，直到周五才重新突破这一心理重要关口。根据道琼斯市场数据，黄金期货（GC00）较 1 月 29 日创下的 5318.40 美元的历史高点下跌了 4.9%。与此同时，银价（SI00）从 1 月 26 日创下的 115.08 美元的历史高点下跌了近 29%——这引发了人们对贵金属在一些人预期今年将展开的商品超级周期中的角色的质疑。</p>
</div><p>Read: Gold falls below $5,000 mark, silver drops as demand weakens during Lunar New Year holiday</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：黄金跌破 5000 美元大关，银价因需求在春节假期期间减弱而下跌。</p>
</div><p>Gold's muted response to geopolitical events over the past week reinforces what a number of people were already thinking: The precious metal has been acting less like a safe haven, and more like a risk asset. And the end of its bull run might be approaching, considering how everything from bitcoin (BTCUSD) to U.S. technology stocks has struggled recently. Gold's price has jumped more than 200% since it initially started moving higher in October 2022; at that time, it traded around $1,640 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金对过去一周地缘政治事件的低调反应强化了许多人已经在思考的观点：贵金属的避险属性减弱，更多地表现为风险资产。考虑到从比特币（BTCUSD）到美国科技股最近的挣扎，黄金的牛市可能即将结束。自 2022 年 10 月开始上涨以来，黄金价格已上涨超过 200%；当时，黄金的交易价格约为每盎司 1640 美元。</p>
</div><p>Investors received some clues about shifting preferences tied to gold over the past week. On Wednesday, intensifying speculation about a U.S. strike on Iran sent U.S. crude-oil futures (CL00) (CLJ26) climbing above $65 a barrel. At the same time, the bid for gold was too weak to keep the yellow metal above the $5,000 level. By Thursday, reports indicated that the U.S. military was prepared to strike Iran as early as this weekend - which pushed Brent crude (BRN00) to more than $70 per barrel. But many investors headed for the safety of the dollar DXY instead of gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在过去一周获得了一些关于黄金偏好变化的线索。周三，关于美国对伊朗进行打击的猜测加剧，推动美国原油期货（CL00）（CLJ26）上涨至每桶 65 美元以上。与此同时，黄金的买盘过于疲软，未能将其价格维持在 5000 美元以上。到周四，报道称美国军方准备在本周末尽早对伊朗发动打击——这使得布伦特原油（BRN00）价格超过每桶 70 美元。但许多投资者选择了美元 DXY 的安全，而不是黄金。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We think this bull market on gold is becoming increasingly fragile,&#34; said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Philadelphia-based Glenmede, which oversees about $50 billion in assets. He added that he isn't surprised that the precious metal's price has stalled at around $5,000, since assets traditionally sensitive to geopolitical risks can &#34;break down in materially overvalued scenarios.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们认为黄金的牛市变得越来越脆弱，” 位于费城的 Glenmede 投资策略副总裁 Michael Reynolds 表示，该公司管理着约 500 亿美元的资产。他补充说，他并不感到惊讶，贵金属的价格在 5000 美元左右停滞，因为传统上对地缘政治风险敏感的资产在 “严重高估的情况下可能会崩溃。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;From our perspective, $5,000 is way above fair value based on fundamentals&#34; when the fair value should be closer to between $3,000 and $3,500, Reynolds noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Reynolds 指出，“从我们的角度来看，5000 美元远高于基于基本面的公允价值”，而公允价值应该更接近 3000 到 3500 美元之间。</p>
</div><p>On Friday, gold finally moved sustainably above the $5,000 mark for the first time this week, and ended up by 1.7% at roughly $5,059 per ounce - even as expectations for an aggressive, imminent U.S. strike against Iran started to fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，黄金终于在本周首次稳定地突破 5000 美元大关，最终上涨 1.7%，约为每盎司 5059 美元——尽管对美国即将对伊朗进行激进打击的预期开始减弱。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump extended his timeline for making a decision on potential military action by 10 to 15 days, and told journalists he was thinking of a limited military strike that would pressure Iran into agreeing to curtail its nuclear program.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总统唐纳德·特朗普将做出潜在军事行动决定的时间延长了 10 到 15 天，并告诉记者，他在考虑进行有限的军事打击，以迫使伊朗同意限制其核计划。</p>
</div><p>David Morrison, a London-based senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said Friday's gold rally had less to do with safe-haven plays and more to do with a weakening dollar, which contributed to supporting the precious metal. He described Friday's rally in gold as a &#34;sideways move,&#34; with no indications that the price will return to its record level seen at the end of last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>位于伦敦的 Trade Nation 高级市场分析师 David Morrison 表示，周五黄金的上涨与避险买盘关系不大，更多是由于美元走弱，支持了贵金属。他将周五黄金的上涨描述为 “横盘整理”，并没有迹象表明价格会回到上个月底的历史高点。</p>
</div><p>A look at the 30-day correlation between gold and the S&amp;P 500 stock index SPX shows that the precious metal has been behaving less like a flight-to-safety trade for years, and more like a stock. This correlation has been more positive than negative since the start of gold's bull run - meaning the two have generally risen or fallen in tandem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>观察黄金与标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）之间的 30 天相关性显示，贵金属多年来的表现越来越像股票，而不是避险交易。自黄金牛市开始以来，这种相关性一直是正向的，意味着两者通常是一起上涨或下跌的。</p>
</div><p>'Parabolic' rally</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“抛物线” 式的上涨</p>
</div><p>Gold's multiyear rally has been attributed to factors such as increased purchases by central banks, concerns over persistent U.S. fiscal deficits and a shift away from dollar-denominated assets by foreign investors. A weaker dollar also plays a big role, by making gold less expensive for foreign investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金的多年上涨被归因于中央银行购买增加、对美国财政赤字持续的担忧以及外国投资者对美元计价资产的转变。美元走弱也起着重要作用，使得黄金对外国投资者来说变得更便宜。</p>
</div><p>Like Friday's market moves, the precious metal's rally into the end of last month has had less to do with safe-haven buyers than people think, according to Morrison, who added that the &#34;parabolic blow-off top&#34; reached on Jan. 29 could mark the end of gold's multiyear bull run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Morrison 的说法，像周五的市场走势一样，贵金属在上个月底的上涨与避险买盘的关系并没有人们想象的那么大，他补充说，1 月 29 日达到的 “抛物线顶峰” 可能标志着黄金多年牛市的结束。</p>
</div><p>To see more upside from here, gold would probably need to hold above $5,000 and/or experience a deep, protracted pullback before it can keep climbing higher again on &#34;some sort of catalyst,&#34; the analyst said, citing the metal's track record since 2011.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要想从这里看到更多的上涨，黄金可能需要保持在 5000 美元以上和/或经历一次深度、持久的回调，才能在 “某种催化剂” 的推动下再次攀升，分析师表示，引用了自 2011 年以来该金属的表现记录。</p>
</div><p>Under a model developed by Glenmede, gold currently sits at the 98th percentile of its historical fair value - meaning that conditions are now ripe for the precious metal to become just as volatile as bitcoin when materially overvalued. In addition, gold is the only major asset class that Glenmede is monitoring that, according to the firm's models, has a negative expected return for the next 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Glenmede 开发的模型，黄金目前处于其历史公允价值的第 98 百分位——这意味着条件现在适合贵金属在严重高估时变得和比特币一样波动。此外，黄金是 Glenmede 正在监测的唯一一个主要资产类别，根据该公司的模型，未来 10 年的预期回报为负。</p>
</div><p>Tom Winmill, the New Hampshire-based portfolio manager of Midas Discovery MIDSX, a fund which invests in natural resources and precious metals, said he isn't surprised to see gold acting like less of a safe haven than it has in the past, especially at times when geopolitical tensions are escalating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>位于新罕布什尔州的 Midas Discovery MIDSX 基金的投资组合经理 Tom Winmill 表示，他并不感到惊讶看到黄金在地缘政治紧张局势升级时表现得不像过去那样避险。</p>
</div><p>Unlike Glenmede's Reynolds, however, Winmill said gold's bull run still has a long way to go. One reason is that foreign central banks, like China's, are still buying the yellow metal due to U.S. fiscal and monetary policies. Foreign central-bank buying - along with a drumbeat of calls for lower U.S. interest rates and the potential long-term debasement of the dollar - is &#34;very hard to stop.&#34; This makes gold's recent moves more of an orderly consolidation rather than a sign of structural weakness, Winmill said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，与 Glenmede 的 Reynolds 不同，Winmill 表示黄金的牛市仍有很长的路要走。一个原因是，像中国这样的外国中央银行仍在购买这种贵金属，原因是美国的财政和货币政策。外国中央银行的购买——加上对降低美国利率的呼声和美元长期贬值的潜在担忧——“非常难以停止”。这使得黄金最近的走势更像是有序的整合，而不是结构性弱点的迹象，Winmill 表示。</p>
</div><p>As for investors seeking safety, anyone who was buying gold as a haven from volatility stoked by U.S. military action overseas has probably already done so, he said - noting the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the war in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于寻求安全的投资者来说，任何在美国海外军事行动引发的波动中购买黄金作为避风港的人，可能已经完成了这一操作，他提到俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵，以及以色列与巴勒斯坦武装组织哈马斯之间的战争。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Short-term geopolitical events definitely move the gold price around a little, but incremental demand from safe-haven buying is minimal because the source of that demand has been exhausted,&#34; Winmill said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“短期的地缘政治事件确实会对黄金价格产生一些波动，但由于安全避风港购买的需求来源已经枯竭，因此增量需求微乎其微，” 温米尔表示。</p>
</div><p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Vivien Lou Chen</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>02-22-26 1200ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-22-26 1200ET</p>
</div>

黄金失去了避险资产的地位。现在它只是一个动量交易吗？