<p>最近，Solana [SOL] 上的真实世界资产生态系统激增至历史里程碑，代币化价值达到 16.6 亿美元。</p>
<p>真实世界资产的稳步增长反映了资本向链上转移以及机构对 Solana 结算基础设施的参与增加。</p>
<p>AMBCrypto 还报道，Layer 1 区块链是 dApp 收入的主要竞争者之一。结合现货 ETF 的资金流入和高网络活动，Solana 的基本面似乎依然强劲。</p>
<p>即使在风险规避的市场条件下，网络的应用收入捕获比率也从 262% 跃升至 375%。不断增加的真实世界资产基础和鲸鱼的积累仍不足以阻止 SOL 的下跌趋势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-1-week-Chart-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1609" height="993" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-1-week-Chart-2.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView 上的 SOL/USDT</p>
<p>长期下降通道仍未被打破。周线图显示，进一步的损失是很可能的。</p>
<p>在$140 的价格区间内存在较大的不平衡，这可能在测试$47.9 的支撑位之前被填补。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SOL-Monthly-Chart-scaled.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="2560" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SOL-Monthly-Chart-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：X 上的 Ali Charts</p>
<p>趋势过于看跌，短期内难以克服。加密分析师 Ali Martinez 在 X 上发布了 SOL 的月线图。在图中，月度 SuperTrend 指标已转为 “卖出” 信号。</p>
<p>上一次发生这种情况是在 2022 年，此后 SOL 价格下跌了 95%。</p>
<h2>积累力度不足以抵挡 SOL 的空头</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-HODLer-Net-Position-Change-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-HODLer-Net-Position-Change-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>Hodler 净头寸变化在 1 月份转为正值。这意味着长期 SOL 持有者的月度头寸变化在增加，显示出积累的迹象。</p>
<p>然而，这一指标在过去三周内有所放缓。</p>
<p>放缓发生在 SOL 跌破$100 水平时。这反映出长期持有者的信心较 1 月上半月有所减弱。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-Percent-Addresses-in-Profit-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-Percent-Addresses-in-Profit-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>未来可能会有更多痛苦，持有者的忧虑可能是合理的。盈利地址的百分比处于自 2023 年 11 月以来的低点，2 月份徘徊在 20% 左右。</p>
<p>在之前的熊市周期中，盈利地址的百分比在 2022 年 12 月 28 日降至 1.37%。</p>
<p>历史不必完全重演，但长期投资者可以再等几个月再购买 SOL。市场整体情绪依然看跌，现在判断底部为时尚早。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最终总结</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>Solana 的基本面依然强劲，机构对网络的信心没有减弱。</em></li>
<li><em>市场的周期性特征使 SOL 深陷熊市，未来可能会有更多的回调。</em></li>
</ul>

GSOL

2 倍做多加密货币行业 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 Riot ETF - Defiance

2 倍做多 COIN ETF - GraniteShares

区块链 ETF - Amplify

GLXY

BSOL

COIN

<p>索拉纳会再跌 95% 吗？为什么 SOL 的底部看起来还很遥远</p>

<p>The real-world asset ecosystem on Solana [SOL] surged to a historic milestone of $1.66 billion in tokenized value recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，Solana [SOL] 上的真实世界资产生态系统激增至历史里程碑，代币化价值达到 16.6 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The steady growth in RWA reflected capital moving on-chain and increased institutional participation in Solana’s settlement infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>真实世界资产的稳步增长反映了资本向链上转移以及机构对 Solana 结算基础设施的参与增加。</p>
</div><p>AMBCrypto also reported that the Layer 1 blockchain was one of the leading competitors in dApp revenue. Combined with spot ETF inflows and high network activity, it seemed that the Solana fundamentals were strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMBCrypto 还报道，Layer 1 区块链是 dApp 收入的主要竞争者之一。结合现货 ETF 的资金流入和高网络活动，Solana 的基本面似乎依然强劲。</p>
</div><p>Even in risk-off market conditions, the network saw a leap in app revenue capture ratio from 262% to 375%. An increasing RWA base and whale accumulation have not been enough to halt SOL’s downward march.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在风险规避的市场条件下，网络的应用收入捕获比率也从 262% 跃升至 375%。不断增加的真实世界资产基础和鲸鱼的积累仍不足以阻止 SOL 的下跌趋势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-1-week-Chart-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-1-week-Chart-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: SOL/USDT on TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView 上的 SOL/USDT</p>
</div><p>The long-term descending channel remained unbroken. The weekly chart showed why further losses were likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期下降通道仍未被打破。周线图显示，进一步的损失是很可能的。</p>
</div><p>There were sizeable imbalances up to $140, which could be filled before the $47.9 southward extension level is tested as support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在$140 的价格区间内存在较大的不平衡，这可能在测试$47.9 的支撑位之前被填补。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SOL-Monthly-Chart-scaled.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SOL-Monthly-Chart-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Ali Charts on X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X 上的 Ali Charts</p>
</div><p>The trend was too strongly bearish to be overcome anytime soon. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez posted the monthly chart of SOL on X. On it, the monthly SuperTrend indicator had flipped to a “sell” signal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>趋势过于看跌，短期内难以克服。加密分析师 Ali Martinez 在 X 上发布了 SOL 的月线图。在图中，月度 SuperTrend 指标已转为 “卖出” 信号。</p>
</div><p>The last time this happened was in 2022, and SOL faced a 95% price drop afterward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上一次发生这种情况是在 2022 年，此后 SOL 价格下跌了 95%。</p>
</div><h2>Accumulation is too weak to stave off SOL bears</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>积累力度不足以抵挡 SOL 的空头</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-HODLer-Net-Position-Change-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-HODLer-Net-Position-Change-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>The Hodler net position change turned green in January. This meant that the monthly position change of long-term SOL holders had been increasing, a sign of accumulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hodler 净头寸变化在 1 月份转为正值。这意味着长期 SOL 持有者的月度头寸变化在增加，显示出积累的迹象。</p>
</div><p>However, the metric has slowed down over the past three weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这一指标在过去三周内有所放缓。</p>
</div><p>The slowdown came alongside a SOL slide below the $100 level. It reflected weakened long-term conviction from long-term holders compared to the first half of January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>放缓发生在 SOL 跌破$100 水平时。这反映出长期持有者的信心较 1 月上半月有所减弱。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-Percent-Addresses-in-Profit-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Solana-Percent-Addresses-in-Profit-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>There could be more pain ahead, and the trepidation from holders might be justified. The percent of addresses in profit was at lows not seen since November 2023, hovering around 20% in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未来可能会有更多痛苦，持有者的忧虑可能是合理的。盈利地址的百分比处于自 2023 年 11 月以来的低点，2 月份徘徊在 20% 左右。</p>
</div><p>During the previous bear cycle, the percent of addresses in profit had dropped to 1.37% on the 28th of December, 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在之前的熊市周期中，盈利地址的百分比在 2022 年 12 月 28 日降至 1.37%。</p>
</div><p>History need not repeat exactly, but long-term investors can wait a few more months before buying SOL. The market-wide sentiment remained bearish, and it was too early to call the bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史不必完全重演，但长期投资者可以再等几个月再购买 SOL。市场整体情绪依然看跌，现在判断底部为时尚早。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Summary</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最终总结</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>The Solana fundamentals remained strong, and institutional confidence in the network has not flagged.</em></li>
<li><em>The cyclical nature of the market has thrown SOL deep into a bear market, and there could be more drawdown ahead later this year.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>Solana 的基本面依然强劲，机构对网络的信心没有减弱。</em></li>
<li><em>市场的周期性特征使 SOL 深陷熊市，未来可能会有更多的回调。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Will Solana fall another 95%? Why SOL’s bottom looks far away

- Solana 上的真实世界资产生态系统达到 16.6 亿美元的代币化价值。  
- 尽管基本面强劲，SOL 在下行趋势中持续下滑，长期持有者信心减弱。  
- 市场情绪依旧看跌，预计未来会有更多回调。

Solana 会再下跌 95% 吗？为什么 SOL 的底部似乎还很遥远