<p>梅艳正在寻找一个可以称之为自己的家。这位自由职业者想要购买一套公寓，但高额的抵押贷款利率以及房地产市场的不确定性让她无法下定决心。她说：“如果我能负担得起，我会想买一套公寓。如果有折扣，那就更好了。” 现在，随着抵押贷款利率的稳定以及对房价的不确定性减少，她希望能找到一处价格合理的住房。随着香港住宅房地产市场进一步稳定，未售出的单位数量逐渐减少，开发商可能会逐渐停止对新项目的慷慨折扣，这使得梅艳等待可负担住房的时间延长。分析师表示，直到最近普遍存在的深度折扣可能已经结束。新房供应的估计各不相同，但趋势是明确的：高峰期已经过去，过去两到三年中看到的高达 30% 的折扣也随之消失。Knight Frank 大中华区研究与咨询经济学家 Keith Chan 表示：“虽然目前整体住房供应仍处于高位，但从 2026 年开始，供应量的下降表明高峰供应可能已经过去。结合近期交易活动的回升，库存压力开始缓解。” 他预计，今年新房供应将比去年的 20,900 个单位减少 10.5%，降至 18,700 个单位，开发商可能会在市场上推出 18,800 个单位。竞争对手 Savills 估计，今年的新开盘数量将在 16,000 到 18,000 个单位之间，并指出在过去几年中，新房销售通常每年达到 20,000 个单位。Savills 研究与咨询总监 Jack Tong 表示，新的开盘数量可能会持续减少，直到 2029 年。“从 2027 年开始，新竣工数量将从 16,500 个下降到 2029 年的 14,500 个，2026 年至 2029 年间的新供应平均为每年 16,500 个，低于 2017 年至 2025 年间每年 18,400 个的平均水平。” 2025 年的新房销售达到了疫情后的高点，销售数量为 20,540 个，而在 1 月份，约有 2,300 个单位被售出，环比增长 80%，这表明供应压力正在减轻。Tong 表示，今年像新鸿基地产（SHKP）和嘉华国际控股等大型开发商尽管提高了价格，但仍然售罄了他们的新开盘。1 月初，SHKP 在发售当天以 5% 的价格上涨售出了位于西沙的 Sierra Sea 2A 第一批 213 个单位。第二批 229 个单位也在一天内售罄，开发商再次将第三轮 218 个公寓的价格提高了 5%。尽管价格上涨，第三轮的所有公寓在发售当天也全部售罄。与此同时，嘉华在天后推出的 Kabitat 在上个月底以超过每平方英尺 26,000 港元（约合 3,327 美元）的平均价格在一天内售罄，Savills 的 Tong 表示，这比 9 月份最终调整后的平均价格上涨了 7%。一些单位的价格甚至上涨了约 13%，而开发商将最高折扣从 30% 降低至 18%。Tong 补充道：“财务状况良好、债务较低的主要开发商，如恒基兆业和信和集团，已经在元朗和土瓜湾的近期开盘中将折扣降低了 1.5% 至 5%，有效地测试了价格的韧性。” 与此同时，Ricacorp Properties 预计今年将推出 95 个新项目，潜在可供买家的单位数量为 29,836 个。这将比去年估计的 36,181 个单位减少约 18%，这是 14 年来潜在供应首次降至 30,000 个单位以下，Ricacorp 研究负责人 Derek Chan Hoi-chiu 表示。鉴于情绪改善，Ricacorp 的 Chan 表示，开发商可能会以 “更有针对性的方法” 推出新项目，这将有助于保持价格稳定。“2026 年新私宅的注册交易数量将比去年增加 10%，达到约 22,000 个，创下 22 年来的新高，” Chan 说。“注册价值预计将增加约 15%，达到约 2560 亿港元，这将是历史最高。” 对于 JLL 而言，从 2022 年到 2024 年政府土地交易和土地溢价申请的稀缺意味着新房供应在 2025 年达到了高峰，该机构预计今年将完成约 28,000 到 30,000 个单位。“开发商的重点将从通过吸引定价清理库存转向管理利润和节奏，” JLL 项目战略与咨询高级总监 Norry Lee 表示。因此，今年的折扣将更多地作为标准定价策略，而不是清仓信号。然而，开发商的策略可能会根据其财务状况而有所不同，有些开发商在实施价格上涨方面处于更有利的位置。他补充道：“财务状况良好的大型开发商可能会减少激进的普遍折扣。” 他表示，“深度折扣，例如低于市场价格 20% 的价格，可能已经结束。” 这可能意味着购房者梅艳购买到价格合理住房的机会正在迅速溜走。</p>

恒生指数

安硕恒生指数

南方一倍看空恒指

南方两倍看多恒指

盈富基金

南方恒生指数ETF

南方两倍看空恒指

华夏恒生ETF

<p>香港的房地产市场正在稳定，导致购房者的折扣减少。分析师预测，新房的供应高峰已经过去，预计到 2029 年新开盘的数量将下降。尽管价格上涨，主要开发商仍在销售单位，显示出强劲的需求。今年新项目的开盘数量预计将降至约 95 个，标志着潜在供应的显著减少。市场情绪的改善可能会导致更多有针对性的项目开盘，从而帮助稳定价格并在未来几年内增加交易量</p>

<p>May Chan is looking for a home that she can call her own. The freelancer wants to buy a flat, but high mortgage rates as well as uncertainty in the property market kept her from taking the plunge. “I would like to buy a flat, if I can afford it,” she said. “It would certainly help if there are discounts.” Now that mortgage rates have stabilised and there is less uncertainty about property prices, she hopes to find a reasonably priced home. With Hong Kong’s residential property market stabilising further and the number of unsold units dwindling, developers are likely to wind down generous discounts for new projects, prolonging Chan’s wait for an affordable home. Deep discounts that were common until recently were likely over, according to analysts. The estimates for new home supply vary, but the trend is clear: the peak has passed and with it discounts of as much as 30 per cent seen in the last two to three years. “While overall housing supply remains at high levels currently, the declining pipeline from 2026 onwards suggests that peak supply has likely passed,” said Keith Chan, economist for research and consultancy for Greater China at Knight Frank. “Combined with a recent pickup in transaction activity, inventory pressure is beginning to ease.” He expected the supply of new homes this year to decline 10.5 per cent to 18,700 units from last year’s level of 20,900 units, with developers likely to release 18,800 units on the market. Rival consultancy Savills estimated that new launches this year would range from 16,000 to 18,000 units, noting that in the past few years new-home sales typically amounted to 20,000 units annually. The declining number of new launches was likely to continue until 2029, said Jack Tong, director for research and consultancy at Savills. “From 2027 onwards new completions will trend downwards from 16,500 to 14,500 in 2029, with new supply averaging 16,500 per annum from 2026 to 2029, lower than the average of 18,400 per annum from 2017 to 2025,” Tong said. New home sales in 2025 reached a post-pandemic high of 20,540 units, while in January, about 2,300 units were sold, a month-on-month increase of 80 per cent, suggesting that peak supply pressure was receding. Tong said that this year big developers like Sun Hung Kai Properties (SHKP) and K. Wah International Holdings had sold out their new launches despite raising prices. In early January, SHKP sold all 213 units in the first batch of Sierra Sea phase 2A in Sai Sha on launch day despite a 5 per cent price increase. With the second batch of 229 units also selling out in a day, the developer again raised the prices of 218 flats for the third round by another 5 per cent. Despite the increase, all flats in the third round were sold out on the day of the launch. Meanwhile, K. Wah’s Kabitat in Tin Hau sold all 60 units in a day late last month despite its average price exceeding HK$26,000 (US$3,327) per square foot, a 7 per cent increase in the final adjusted average price in September, Savills’ Tong said. Some units even saw price increases of about 13 per cent, while the developer reduced the maximum discount to 18 per cent from 30 per cent, he said. “Major developers with strong financials and lower debt, such as Henderson Land Development and Sino Group, have already reduced discounts by 1.5 per cent to 5 per cent for recent launches in Yuen Long and To Kwa Wan, effectively testing price resilience,” Tong added. Meanwhile, Ricacorp Properties expected 95 new project launches this year, with 29,836 units potentially available for buyers. This would be around 18 per cent lower than the estimated 36,181 units launched last year, the first time in 14 years that potential supply had fallen below 30,000 units, according to Derek Chan Hoi-chiu, head of research at the property agency. Given the improved sentiment, Ricacorp’s Chan said developers were likely to launch new projects with a “more targeted approach”, which would help keep prices stable. “The number of registered transactions for new private residential properties in 2026 will increase by another 10 per cent compared with last year, reaching around 22,000, a 22-year high,” Chan said. “The registered value is expected to increase by about 15 per cent to around HK$256 billion, which would be a record high.” For JLL, the paucity of government land transactions and land premium applications from 2022 to 2024 meant that the supply of new homes had peaked in 2025, with the agency expecting around 28,000 to 30,000 units to be completed this year. “Developers’ focus will change from clearing stock with the help of attractive pricing to managing margin and pace,” said Norry Lee, senior director of projects strategy and consultancy at JLL. As a result, discounts this year would be more of a standard pricing tactic rather than a fire-sale signal. However, developers’ strategies could vary depending on their financial situation, with some in a better position to implement price increases, he added. “Large developers with strong balance sheets are likely to reduce aggressive, across-the-board discounts,” Lee said. “Deep discounting, such as prices that are 20 per cent below market price, is likely over.” This could well mean homebuyer Chan’s chances of buying a keenly priced home are quickly slipping from her grasp.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>梅艳正在寻找一个可以称之为自己的家。这位自由职业者想要购买一套公寓，但高额的抵押贷款利率以及房地产市场的不确定性让她无法下定决心。她说：“如果我能负担得起，我会想买一套公寓。如果有折扣，那就更好了。” 现在，随着抵押贷款利率的稳定以及对房价的不确定性减少，她希望能找到一处价格合理的住房。随着香港住宅房地产市场进一步稳定，未售出的单位数量逐渐减少，开发商可能会逐渐停止对新项目的慷慨折扣，这使得梅艳等待可负担住房的时间延长。分析师表示，直到最近普遍存在的深度折扣可能已经结束。新房供应的估计各不相同，但趋势是明确的：高峰期已经过去，过去两到三年中看到的高达 30% 的折扣也随之消失。Knight Frank 大中华区研究与咨询经济学家 Keith Chan 表示：“虽然目前整体住房供应仍处于高位，但从 2026 年开始，供应量的下降表明高峰供应可能已经过去。结合近期交易活动的回升，库存压力开始缓解。” 他预计，今年新房供应将比去年的 20,900 个单位减少 10.5%，降至 18,700 个单位，开发商可能会在市场上推出 18,800 个单位。竞争对手 Savills 估计，今年的新开盘数量将在 16,000 到 18,000 个单位之间，并指出在过去几年中，新房销售通常每年达到 20,000 个单位。Savills 研究与咨询总监 Jack Tong 表示，新的开盘数量可能会持续减少，直到 2029 年。“从 2027 年开始，新竣工数量将从 16,500 个下降到 2029 年的 14,500 个，2026 年至 2029 年间的新供应平均为每年 16,500 个，低于 2017 年至 2025 年间每年 18,400 个的平均水平。” 2025 年的新房销售达到了疫情后的高点，销售数量为 20,540 个，而在 1 月份，约有 2,300 个单位被售出，环比增长 80%，这表明供应压力正在减轻。Tong 表示，今年像新鸿基地产（SHKP）和嘉华国际控股等大型开发商尽管提高了价格，但仍然售罄了他们的新开盘。1 月初，SHKP 在发售当天以 5% 的价格上涨售出了位于西沙的 Sierra Sea 2A 第一批 213 个单位。第二批 229 个单位也在一天内售罄，开发商再次将第三轮 218 个公寓的价格提高了 5%。尽管价格上涨，第三轮的所有公寓在发售当天也全部售罄。与此同时，嘉华在天后推出的 Kabitat 在上个月底以超过每平方英尺 26,000 港元（约合 3,327 美元）的平均价格在一天内售罄，Savills 的 Tong 表示，这比 9 月份最终调整后的平均价格上涨了 7%。一些单位的价格甚至上涨了约 13%，而开发商将最高折扣从 30% 降低至 18%。Tong 补充道：“财务状况良好、债务较低的主要开发商，如恒基兆业和信和集团，已经在元朗和土瓜湾的近期开盘中将折扣降低了 1.5% 至 5%，有效地测试了价格的韧性。” 与此同时，Ricacorp Properties 预计今年将推出 95 个新项目，潜在可供买家的单位数量为 29,836 个。这将比去年估计的 36,181 个单位减少约 18%，这是 14 年来潜在供应首次降至 30,000 个单位以下，Ricacorp 研究负责人 Derek Chan Hoi-chiu 表示。鉴于情绪改善，Ricacorp 的 Chan 表示，开发商可能会以 “更有针对性的方法” 推出新项目，这将有助于保持价格稳定。“2026 年新私宅的注册交易数量将比去年增加 10%，达到约 22,000 个，创下 22 年来的新高，” Chan 说。“注册价值预计将增加约 15%，达到约 2560 亿港元，这将是历史最高。” 对于 JLL 而言，从 2022 年到 2024 年政府土地交易和土地溢价申请的稀缺意味着新房供应在 2025 年达到了高峰，该机构预计今年将完成约 28,000 到 30,000 个单位。“开发商的重点将从通过吸引定价清理库存转向管理利润和节奏，” JLL 项目战略与咨询高级总监 Norry Lee 表示。因此，今年的折扣将更多地作为标准定价策略，而不是清仓信号。然而，开发商的策略可能会根据其财务状况而有所不同，有些开发商在实施价格上涨方面处于更有利的位置。他补充道：“财务状况良好的大型开发商可能会减少激进的普遍折扣。” 他表示，“深度折扣，例如低于市场价格 20% 的价格，可能已经结束。” 这可能意味着购房者梅艳购买到价格合理住房的机会正在迅速溜走。</p>
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随着房地产市场的稳定，香港购房者面临折扣减少的情况