<p>黄金作为价值储存的地位可以追溯到数千年前，这也是为什么它在许多美国州仍被视为法定货币。然而，考虑到每盎司黄金价格的快速上涨，现在很难找到有人用黄金购买日常必需品。</p><p>2025 年，黄金的价值飙升了 64%，而在 2026 年又上涨了 18%。相比之下，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong>（^GSPC +0.77%）股市指数今年仅上涨了 1%。投资者纷纷涌入这种贵金属，以对冲政府支出激增、国家债务膨胀和经济不确定性上升的后果。这种幅度的回报显然并不典型，但目前的条件仍然理想，未来可能会有进一步的上涨空间。</p><p>购买实物黄金是随着这种闪亮的黄色金属升值而获利的最可靠方式，但对于大多数投资者来说，购买像 <strong>SPDR 黄金 ETF</strong>（GLD 1.41%）这样的交易所交易基金可能是一个更简单的选择。它跟踪黄金的价格，而不需要承担拥有实物金条所带来的存储和保险麻烦。以下是为什么现在加入一些黄金到你的投资组合还不算晚（但保持现实的期望是关键）。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg1NzQ1MC9hLXN0YWNrLW9mLWdvbGQtYmFycy1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLXRvcC1vZi1hbWVyaWNhbi1kb2xsYXJzLmpwZxZ3PTM4NDAWb3A9cmVzaXpl?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg1NzQ1MC9hLXN0YWNrLW9mLWdvbGQtYmFycy1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLXRvcC1vZi1hbWVyaWNhbi1kb2xsYXJzLmpwZxZ3PTM4NDAWb3A9cmVzaXpl"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="yx9ntita">货币供应量的增加可能推动黄金价格上涨</h2><p>黄金作为价值储存的声誉部分归因于其稀缺性。人类历史上仅开采了 219,890 吨黄金，而其他商品如铁矿石和煤炭的开采量则达到数十亿吨。即使是银的开采量也远远超过黄金，目前已开采约 170 万吨。</p><p>黄金的价值是全球几乎所有人都认同的少数几样东西之一，因为投资者、政府甚至中央银行都是持续的买家。事实上，在过去，许多国家甚至将其国内货币的价值与这种闪亮的黄色金属挂钩，这种政策通常被称为 “金本位”。这限制了政府可以印制的纸币数量，因为他们需要拥有等量的实物金属来匹配。</p><p>美国在 1971 年之前一直采用金本位，放弃这一政策导致了一个非常可预测的结果：货币供应量的爆炸性增长。自那时以来，美国美元的购买力大约下降了 90%，因此尽管黄金不产生任何收入或收益，但其以美元计价的价值随之飙升。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/e101b63fd02eb73c397bcad13e24a517?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/e101b63fd02eb73c397bcad13e24a517"/></figure><p>黄金价格（美元） 数据来源于 YCharts</p><p>在过去一年中，投资者以比平常更积极的速度购买黄金，因为他们担心货币供应量的增长不可避免地会因美国政府不可持续的财政轨迹而加速。在 2025 财年（截至 9 月 30 日），政府的预算赤字达到了 1.8 万亿美元，国家债务飙升至历史最高的 38 万亿美元。</p><p>去年，对冲基金传奇人物 Ray Dalio 建议投资者将最多 15% 的投资组合分配给黄金，以对冲当前的财政状况。另一位对冲基金亿万富翁 Paul Tudor Jones，最近也投资了 SPDR 黄金 ETF，因为他说历史上，文明总是试图通过印制更多货币来 “通货膨胀化解债务”。</p><h2 id="g94is90n">投资者应调整未来的期望</h2><p>在过去 30 年中，黄金的年均复合回报率约为 8%，因此投资者在过去 12 个月中享受的收益可能并不可持续。然而，美国政府在 2026 财年有望再次出现万亿美元的预算赤字，因此对货币供应量增长的担忧可能不会消失。</p><p>但即使这是真的，历史表明黄金并不一定是最佳的投资资产。尽管它目前的表现优于标准普尔 500 指数，但该基准股市指数在过去三十年中提供了更高的年均复合回报率，达到了 10.7%。因此，那些当时将资金投入标准普尔 500 指数而非黄金的投资者今天会好得多。</p><p>展开</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvR0xELnBuZxZ3PTEyOBZvcD1yZXNpemU?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="SPDR 黄金 ETF 股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvR0xELnBuZxZ3PTEyOBZvcD1yZXNpemU"/></figure><h2 id="gz2u0j0x">NYSEMKT: GLD</h2><p>SPDR 黄金 ETF</p><p>今日变动</p><p>(-1.41%) $-6.77</p><p>当前价格</p><p>$474.51</p><h3 id="runubz6mr">关键数据点</h3><p>日内区间</p><p>$469.58 - $475.42</p><p>52 周区间</p><p>$261.25 - $509.70</p><p>成交量</p><p>974K</p><p>在我看来，黄金的短期回报优于标准普尔 500 指数，而标准普尔 500 指数的长期回报则更为优越，这突显了多样化的重要性。像 Ray Dalio 这样的专业投资者可能是对的，在当前政治气候下持有更多黄金是个好主意，但股票仍然是多样化投资组合中占主导地位的资产类别，其中黄金的配置为 15%。</p><h2 id="aghbeymto">购买黄金的简单方法</h2><p>购买实物黄金需要存储和保险费用，如果持有者需要现金，快速出售也很困难。这就是为什么 SPDR Gold Shares ETF 可能是大多数投资者的正确选择。它不需要存储，并且可以通过每个主要投资平台进行买卖。</p><p>该 ETF 的费用比率为 0.4%，这是每年从基金中扣除的比例，用于覆盖管理成本，因此投资 10,000 美元将产生 40 美元的年度费用。然而，这可能仍然比拥有实物黄金便宜。</p>

易方达黄金ETF

黄金 ETF - iShares

初级黄金矿股 ETF

<p>黄金价格在 2025 年上涨了 64%，在 2026 年又上涨了 18%，显著超过了仅上涨 1% 的标准普尔 500 指数。投资者纷纷涌向黄金，以对冲政府支出增加和经济不确定性。SPDR 黄金信托 ETF 提供了一种更简单的投资黄金的方式，无需承担实物拥有的麻烦。尽管黄金近期表现良好，历史数据表明标准普尔 500 指数在长期内提供了更高的回报。专家建议在当前财政挑战下，投资者应考虑多元化投资组合，可能将 15% 的资金配置到黄金上</p>

<p>Gold's status as a store of value dates back thousands of years, which is why it's still considered legal tender in many U.S. states today. However, you would be hard-pressed to find someone using gold to buy everyday essentials right now, given how fast the price per ounce is rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金作为价值储存的地位可以追溯到数千年前，这也是为什么它在许多美国州仍被视为法定货币。然而，考虑到每盎司黄金价格的快速上涨，现在很难找到有人用黄金购买日常必需品。</p>
</div><p>Gold soared in value by 64% in 2025, and it's already up by a further 18% in 2026. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>( ^GSPC +0.77%) stock market index, on the other hand, is up just 1% this year. Investors are piling into the precious metal to hedge against the consequences of soaring government spending, a ballooning national debt, and rising economic uncertainty. Returns of this magnitude certainly aren't typical, but conditions remain ideal for further potential upside from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年，黄金的价值飙升了 64%，而在 2026 年又上涨了 18%。相比之下，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong>（^GSPC +0.77%）股市指数今年仅上涨了 1%。投资者纷纷涌入这种贵金属，以对冲政府支出激增、国家债务膨胀和经济不确定性上升的后果。这种幅度的回报显然并不典型，但目前的条件仍然理想，未来可能会有进一步的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>Buying physical gold is the surest way to profit as the shiny yellow metal rises in value, but purchasing an exchange-traded fund (ETF) like the <strong>SPDR Gold Shares ETF</strong>( GLD 1.41%) might be a much simpler option for most investors. It tracks the price of gold without the storage and insurance headaches that come with owning physical bullion. Here's why it's not too late to add some gold to your portfolio (but maintaining realistic expectations is key).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>购买实物黄金是随着这种闪亮的黄色金属升值而获利的最可靠方式，但对于大多数投资者来说，购买像 <strong>SPDR 黄金 ETF</strong>（GLD 1.41%）这样的交易所交易基金可能是一个更简单的选择。它跟踪黄金的价格，而不需要承担拥有实物金条所带来的存储和保险麻烦。以下是为什么现在加入一些黄金到你的投资组合还不算晚（但保持现实的期望是关键）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTc0NTAvYS1zdGFjay1vZi1nb2xkLWJhcnMtc2l0dGluZy1vbi10b3Atb2YtYW1lcmljYW4tZG9sbGFycy5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="A stack of gold bars is sitting on top of American dollars." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F857450%2Fa-stack-of-gold-bars-sitting-on-top-of-american-dollars.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A rising money supply could fuel higher gold prices</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>货币供应量的增加可能推动黄金价格上涨</h2>
</div><p>Some of gold's reputation as a store of value is attributable to its scarcity. Only 219,890 tons have been pulled from the ground throughout human history, whereas <em>billions</em> of tons of other commodities like iron ore and coal have been mined. Even silver is far more abundant, with roughly 1.7 million tons extracted so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金作为价值储存的声誉部分归因于其稀缺性。人类历史上仅开采了 219,890 吨黄金，而其他商品如铁矿石和煤炭的开采量则达到数十亿吨。即使是银的开采量也远远超过黄金，目前已开采约 170 万吨。</p>
</div><p>Gold's value is one of the few things the entire world seems to agree on, because investors, governments, and even central banks are consistent buyers. In fact, in the past, many countries even pegged the value of their domestic currency to the shiny yellow metal, a policy which is often referred to as the &#34;gold standard.&#34; It limited the amount of paper money governments could print, because they needed to have an equal amount of physical metal to match.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金的价值是全球几乎所有人都认同的少数几样东西之一，因为投资者、政府甚至中央银行都是持续的买家。事实上，在过去，许多国家甚至将其国内货币的价值与这种闪亮的黄色金属挂钩，这种政策通常被称为 “金本位”。这限制了政府可以印制的纸币数量，因为他们需要拥有等量的实物金属来匹配。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. was on the gold standard until 1971, and abandoning the policy led to a very predictable outcome: an explosive increase in money supply. The U.S. dollar has since lost around 90% of its purchasing power, so even though gold doesn't produce any revenue or earnings, its value in dollar terms has subsequently skyrocketed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国在 1971 年之前一直采用金本位，放弃这一政策导致了一个非常可预测的结果：货币供应量的爆炸性增长。自那时以来，美国美元的购买力大约下降了 90%，因此尽管黄金不产生任何收入或收益，但其以美元计价的价值随之飙升。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>Gold Price in US Dollars data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格（美元） 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Over the past year, investors have bought gold at a more aggressive pace than usual, as they fear the growth in money supply will inevitably accelerate because of the U.S. government's unsustainable fiscal trajectory. During fiscal 2025 (ended Sept. 30), the government ran a budget deficit of $1.8 trillion, which sent the national debt skyrocketing to an all-time high of $38 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一年中，投资者以比平常更积极的速度购买黄金，因为他们担心货币供应量的增长不可避免地会因美国政府不可持续的财政轨迹而加速。在 2025 财年（截至 9 月 30 日），政府的预算赤字达到了 1.8 万亿美元，国家债务飙升至历史最高的 38 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Last year, hedge fund legend Ray Dalio recommended investors allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to gold as a hedge against the current fiscal situation. Another hedge fund billionaire, Paul Tudor Jones, recently piled into the SPDR Gold ETF because he says throughout history, civilizations have always tried to &#34;inflate away their debt&#34; by printing more money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，对冲基金传奇人物 Ray Dalio 建议投资者将最多 15% 的投资组合分配给黄金，以对冲当前的财政状况。另一位对冲基金亿万富翁 Paul Tudor Jones，最近也投资了 SPDR 黄金 ETF，因为他说历史上，文明总是试图通过印制更多货币来 “通货膨胀化解债务”。</p>
</div><h2>Investors should temper their expectations going forward</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应调整未来的期望</h2>
</div><p>Over the last 30 years, gold has averaged a compound annual return of around 8%, so the gains investors have enjoyed over the past 12 months probably aren't sustainable. However, the U.S. government is on track to run another trillion-dollar budget deficit in fiscal 2026, so fears about a growing money supply probably aren't going away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去 30 年中，黄金的年均复合回报率约为 8%，因此投资者在过去 12 个月中享受的收益可能并不可持续。然而，美国政府在 2026 财年有望再次出现万亿美元的预算赤字，因此对货币供应量增长的担忧可能不会消失。</p>
</div><p>But even if that's true, history suggests gold isn't necessarily the best asset to own. Although it's crushing the S&amp;P 500 right now, the benchmark stock market index has delivered a much higher compound annual return of 10.7% over the last three decades. As a result, investors who parked their money in the S&amp;P 500 instead of gold back then would be much better off today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使这是真的，历史表明黄金并不一定是最佳的投资资产。尽管它目前的表现优于标准普尔 500 指数，但该基准股市指数在过去三十年中提供了更高的年均复合回报率，达到了 10.7%。因此，那些当时将资金投入标准普尔 500 指数而非黄金的投资者今天会好得多。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0dMRC5wbmcmdz0xMjg" alt="SPDR Gold Shares Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FGLD.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NYSEMKT: GLD</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NYSEMKT: GLD</h2>
</div><p>SPDR Gold Shares</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SPDR 黄金 ETF</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-1.41%) $-6.77</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-1.41%) $-6.77</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$474.51</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$474.51</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$469.58 - $475.42</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$469.58 - $475.42</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$261.25 - $509.70</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$261.25 - $509.70</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>974K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>974K</p>
</div><p>In my view, gold's superior <em>short-term</em> returns and the S&amp;P 500's superior <em>long-term</em> returns simply highlight the importance of diversification. Professional investors like Ray Dalio are probably right that it's a good idea to hold more gold in the current political climate, but stocks would still be the dominant asset class in a diversified portfolio where the yellow metal has a 15% allocation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，黄金的短期回报优于标准普尔 500 指数，而标准普尔 500 指数的长期回报则更为优越，这突显了多样化的重要性。像 Ray Dalio 这样的专业投资者可能是对的，在当前政治气候下持有更多黄金是个好主意，但股票仍然是多样化投资组合中占主导地位的资产类别，其中黄金的配置为 15%。</p>
</div><h2>A simple way to buy gold</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>购买黄金的简单方法</h2>
</div><p>Buying physical gold comes with storage and insurance costs, and it's also hard to sell quickly if the owner needs access to cash. That's why the SPDR Gold Shares ETF might be the right choice for most investors. It doesn't require storage, and it can be bought and sold through every major investing platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>购买实物黄金需要存储和保险费用，如果持有者需要现金，快速出售也很困难。这就是为什么 SPDR Gold Shares ETF 可能是大多数投资者的正确选择。它不需要存储，并且可以通过每个主要投资平台进行买卖。</p>
</div><p>The ETF does have an expense ratio of 0.4%, which is the proportion of the fund deducted each year to cover management costs, so an investment of $10,000 would incur an annual fee of $40. However, it's probably still cheaper than owning physical gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该 ETF 的费用比率为 0.4%，这是每年从基金中扣除的比例，用于覆盖管理成本，因此投资 10,000 美元将产生 40 美元的年度费用。然而，这可能仍然比拥有实物黄金便宜。</p>
</div>

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF Soared by 64% in 2025, and It's Already Crushing the Stock Market in 2026. Is It Too Late to Buy?

Motley Fool

Van Eck Associates Corp.

黄金 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做多金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

德银贵金属基金 - PowerShares

贵金属股 ETF -ETFS

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

3 倍做多黄金矿业 ETN - MicroSectors

华夏黄金ETF

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

ETFS Capital Ltd.

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners UCITS ETF

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

SPDR Gold Shares ETF 在 2025 年上涨了 64%，并且在 2026 年已经超越了股市。现在购买是否为时已晚？