<p>（对其他订阅者重复，无任何更改。此处表达的观点为作者的个人观点，他是路透社的专栏作家。）</p>
<p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
<p>伦敦，2 月 25 日（路透社）——中国在关键矿产供应链中的主导地位并不像表面上看起来的那样绝对。</p>
<p>钴就是一个例子。</p>
<p>根据国际能源署的数据，中国在 2024 年占全球电池金属精炼产量的 78%。但它缺乏显著的国内矿业能力，因此高度依赖原材料的进口。</p>
<p>这种脆弱性已被刚果民主共和国施加的出口管制暴露出来，刚果是中国加工商钴中间产品的最大来源。</p>
<p>刚果在去年 2 月暂停了钴的出口，并在 10 月引入了配额制度。</p>
<p>去年第四季度，发往中国的货物几乎停滞不前，随着对单位的争夺，当地价格现在飙升。</p>
<p>随着美国试图削弱中国对该国矿产财富的控制，争夺刚果钴的竞争只会加剧。</p>
<h3>出口管制</h3>
<p>刚果为 2025 年第四季度设定了 18,125 公吨的出口配额，并为今年设定了 96,600 公吨的配额，其中包括 10% 的战略分配。</p>
<p>新方案实施的延迟导致去年最后三个月的出口货物完全停滞。</p>
<p>根据咨询公司 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence（BMI）的说法，第一辆运载钴的卡车在 1 月才离开该国。</p>
<p>运营商将被允许将其 2025 年第四季度的配额转入今年，但由于出口货物通常需要三个月才能到达中国，该国面临着严重的供应紧张期。</p>
<h3>瓶颈</h3>
<p>由于刚果的出口管制，CME（OBCc1）上交易的精炼钴价格已从 2025 年初的每磅 10 美元飙升至 25 美元。</p>
<p>但这只是故事的一部分。</p>
<p>像刚果氢氧化物这样的中间产品是根据钴含量定价的。这种 “可支付” 在 2 月份的交易价格约为金属价格的 55%。现在它的报价常常达到前所未有的 100%。</p>
<p>中间产品的紧缩迫使买家转向中国的无锡不锈钢交易所，该交易所是中国最主要的钴交易场所。</p>
<p>截至 1 月底，超过 3,250 吨钴金属，或交易所库存的 37%，已从无锡注册仓库中提取。</p>
<p>中国的问题在于，除了刚果之外几乎没有其他替代供应商。</p>
<p>主要的替代供应商是印度尼西亚，钴是镍的副产品。但即使考虑到今年印度尼西亚的产量增加，BMI 认为也不足以填补刚果限制出口流量所留下的缺口。</p>
<h3>竞争</h3>
<p>到目前为止，中国一直是刚果的主导运营商，为其国内冶炼厂和精炼厂采购铜和钴原材料。</p>
<p>这种情况正在改变。</p>
<p>刚果的钴出口管制是其矿业部门更大重组的一部分，该国希望从其自然资源财富中获得更多收益。</p>
<p>美国已帮助调解金夏沙与卢旺达之间的和平协议，以停止席卷刚果东部地区的冲突。</p>
<p>该协议使该国向美国投资开放。美国国际开发金融公司在 12 月宣布计划在一个新的合资企业中持有股份，以营销政府的铜和钴份额。美国买家将享有优先购买权。</p>
<p>美国在中非政策的核心是刚果与安哥拉洛比托港之间的新铁路连接，这是一个与中国支持的通往坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆的铁路相抗衡的战略走廊。</p>
<p>中国的钴买家面临的不仅是来自刚果的进口减少，还有对正在开采的资源的竞争加剧。</p>
<h3>阿基里斯之踵</h3>
<p>在控制全球钴链方面，采矿是中国的阿基里斯之踵。</p>
<p>许多其他关键矿产也是如此，包括稀土。</p>
<p>尽管中国是全球最大的稀土矿产国，但并非完全自给自足，仍依赖从邻国缅甸进口重稀土如铽和镝。</p>
<p>随着中国对原材料需求的增长，它将变得更加依赖第三方提供采矿输入。</p>
<p>这种依赖将变得越来越棘手，正如中国的钴买家所发现的那样。（安迪·霍姆是路透社的专栏作家。此处表达的观点为他的个人观点。）喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），获取关于市场和金融的发人深省、数据驱动的评论。请在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。并在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社应用上收听每日播客 Morning Bid。订阅以收听路透社记者讨论市场和金融的重大新闻，每周七天。</p>
<p>中国从刚果进口的钴中间产品急剧下降</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3MpeL0M?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1298" height="652" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3MpeL0M"/></p>
<p>从无锡交易所仓库中提取的钴</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8iQ8r?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2524" height="1150" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8iQ8r"/></p>
<p>（编辑：玛格丽塔·蔡）</p>
<p>)</p>

华友钴业

洛阳钼业

<p>中国在关键矿产供应链，特别是钴方面的主导地位正受到审视，因为其依赖进口。刚果民主共和国的出口管制对中国的钴供应产生了重大影响，导致价格飙升和资源竞争。刚果的新配额制度已暂停出口，造成供应紧张。美国正在加大对刚果矿产部门的参与，旨在减少中国对这些资源的控制。中国对矿业的依赖给其钴供应链带来了挑战，突显了其关键矿产战略中的脆弱性</p>

<p>(Repeats to additional subscribers without any changes. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（对其他订阅者重复，无任何更改。此处表达的观点为作者的个人观点，他是路透社的专栏作家。）</p>
</div><p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - China’s dominance of critical mineral supply chains is not as absolute as it may appear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，2 月 25 日（路透社）——中国在关键矿产供应链中的主导地位并不像表面上看起来的那样绝对。</p>
</div><p>Cobalt is a case in point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>钴就是一个例子。</p>
</div><p>China accounted for 78% of global refined output of the battery metal in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. But it lacks significant domestic mining capacity, leaving it highly dependent on imports of raw materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国际能源署的数据，中国在 2024 年占全球电池金属精炼产量的 78%。但它缺乏显著的国内矿业能力，因此高度依赖原材料的进口。</p>
</div><p>That vulnerability has been exposed by the export controls imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, the largest source of cobalt intermediate products for Chinese processors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种脆弱性已被刚果民主共和国施加的出口管制暴露出来，刚果是中国加工商钴中间产品的最大来源。</p>
</div><p>Congo suspended cobalt exports in February last year and introduced a quota system in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>刚果在去年 2 月暂停了钴的出口，并在 10 月引入了配额制度。</p>
</div><p>Shipments to China then ground to a near standstill over the fourth quarter of last year, with local prices now surging amid a scramble for units.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年第四季度，发往中国的货物几乎停滞不前，随着对单位的争夺，当地价格现在飙升。</p>
</div><p>Competition for Congolese cobalt is only going to heat up as the U.S. tries to loosen China’s grip on the country’s mineral riches.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着美国试图削弱中国对该国矿产财富的控制，争夺刚果钴的竞争只会加剧。</p>
</div><h3>EXPORT CONTROLS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>出口管制</h3>
</div><p>Congo set export quotas at 18,125 metric tons for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 96,600 tons, including a 10% strategic allocation, for this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>刚果为 2025 年第四季度设定了 18,125 公吨的出口配额，并为今年设定了 96,600 公吨的配额，其中包括 10% 的战略分配。</p>
</div><p>Delays in implementing the new scheme caused export shipments to grind to a complete halt in the final three months of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新方案实施的延迟导致去年最后三个月的出口货物完全停滞。</p>
</div><p>The first truck carrying cobalt only left the country in January, according to consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), writing for The Cobalt Institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据咨询公司 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence（BMI）的说法，第一辆运载钴的卡车在 1 月才离开该国。</p>
</div><p>Operators will be allowed to roll their Q4 2025 quotas into this year but with export shipments typically taking three months to make it to China, the country is facing a period of acute supply tightness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>运营商将被允许将其 2025 年第四季度的配额转入今年，但由于出口货物通常需要三个月才能到达中国，该国面临着严重的供应紧张期。</p>
</div><h3>PINCH POINT</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>瓶颈</h3>
</div><p>The price of refined cobalt traded on the CME (OBCc1) has surged from $10 per lb in early 2025 to $25 thanks to Congo’s export controls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于刚果的出口管制，CME（OBCc1）上交易的精炼钴价格已从 2025 年初的每磅 10 美元飙升至 25 美元。</p>
</div><p>But that is only part of the story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这只是故事的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Intermediate products such as Congolese hydroxide are priced on the basis of the cobalt content. This “payable” was trading at around 55% of the metal price in February. It is now regularly quoted at an unprecedented 100%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像刚果氢氧化物这样的中间产品是根据钴含量定价的。这种 “可支付” 在 2 月份的交易价格约为金属价格的 55%。现在它的报价常常达到前所未有的 100%。</p>
</div><p>The squeeze on intermediate products has forced buyers to turn to cobalt metal stocks held by China’s Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange, the country’s foremost cobalt trading venue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中间产品的紧缩迫使买家转向中国的无锡不锈钢交易所，该交易所是中国最主要的钴交易场所。</p>
</div><p>More than 3,250 tons of cobalt metal, or 37% of exchange stocks, were taken out of Wuxi registered warehouses at the end of January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 1 月底，超过 3,250 吨钴金属，或交易所库存的 37%，已从无锡注册仓库中提取。</p>
</div><p>China’s problem is that there are few alternative suppliers to the Congo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的问题在于，除了刚果之外几乎没有其他替代供应商。</p>
</div><p>The main one is Indonesia, where cobalt is mined as a by-product of nickel. But even allowing for increased Indonesian production this year, it won’t be enough to fill the gap left by Congo’s restricted export flows, according to BMI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要的替代供应商是印度尼西亚，钴是镍的副产品。但即使考虑到今年印度尼西亚的产量增加，BMI 认为也不足以填补刚果限制出口流量所留下的缺口。</p>
</div><h3>COMPETITION</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>竞争</h3>
</div><p>China has until now been the dominant operator in Congo, sourcing both copper and cobalt raw materials for its domestic smelters and refineries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，中国一直是刚果的主导运营商，为其国内冶炼厂和精炼厂采购铜和钴原材料。</p>
</div><p>That’s changing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情况正在改变。</p>
</div><p>Congo’s cobalt export controls are part of a bigger restructuring of its mineral sector as the country seeks to earn more from its natural resources wealth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>刚果的钴出口管制是其矿业部门更大重组的一部分，该国希望从其自然资源财富中获得更多收益。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. has helped mediate a peace deal between Kinshasa and Rwanda to stop the fighting that has engulfed Congo’s eastern regions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国已帮助调解金夏沙与卢旺达之间的和平协议，以停止席卷刚果东部地区的冲突。</p>
</div><p>The deal has opened the country up to U.S. investment. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced in December plans to take a stake in a new joint venture to market the government’s share of copper and cobalt. U.S. buyers will have the right of first refusal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该协议使该国向美国投资开放。美国国际开发金融公司在 12 月宣布计划在一个新的合资企业中持有股份，以营销政府的铜和钴份额。美国买家将享有优先购买权。</p>
</div><p>Central to U.S. policy in central Africa is the new rail link between Congo and the Angolan port of Lobito, a strategic corridor rivaling the alternative Chinese-backed railway to Dar es Salaam in Tanzania.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国在中非政策的核心是刚果与安哥拉洛比托港之间的新铁路连接，这是一个与中国支持的通往坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆的铁路相抗衡的战略走廊。</p>
</div><p>Chinese cobalt buyers are facing not just lower imports from the Congo but increased competition for what is being mined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的钴买家面临的不仅是来自刚果的进口减少，还有对正在开采的资源的竞争加剧。</p>
</div><h3>ACHILLES’ HEEL</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>阿基里斯之踵</h3>
</div><p>Mining is China’s Achilles’ heel when it comes to controlling the global cobalt chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在控制全球钴链方面，采矿是中国的阿基里斯之踵。</p>
</div><p>The same is true of many other critical minerals, including even rare earths.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多其他关键矿产也是如此，包括稀土。</p>
</div><p>While China is the world’s largest miner of rare earths it is by no means completely self-sufficient, relying on imports of raw materials from its neighbour Myanmar for heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管中国是全球最大的稀土矿产国，但并非完全自给自足，仍依赖从邻国缅甸进口重稀土如铽和镝。</p>
</div><p>As China’s own demand for raw materials grows, it will become even more dependent on third parties to supply the mining inputs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着中国对原材料需求的增长，它将变得更加依赖第三方提供采矿输入。</p>
</div><p>That dependence is going to be increasingly problematic as China’s cobalt buyers are finding out. (Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种依赖将变得越来越棘手，正如中国的钴买家所发现的那样。（安迪·霍姆是路透社的专栏作家。此处表达的观点为他的个人观点。）喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），获取关于市场和金融的发人深省、数据驱动的评论。请在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。并在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社应用上收听每日播客 Morning Bid。订阅以收听路透社记者讨论市场和金融的重大新闻，每周七天。</p>
</div><p>China’s slumping imports of cobalt intermediate products from the Congo</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国从刚果进口的钴中间产品急剧下降</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3MpeL0M" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3MpeL0M"/></p>
<p>Cobalt stripped out of Wuxi exchange warehouses</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从无锡交易所仓库中提取的钴</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8iQ8r" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8iQ8r"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：玛格丽塔·蔡）</p>
</div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p>
</div>

刚果共和国的钴限制暴露了中国在关键金属方面的弱点：Andy Home