<p>香港财政司司长周三展现了他作为特许会计师的资历，提出了一份出乎意料的强劲预算，盈余充足，并且充满了通过其可支配的重大资金来资助的各项举措。其中一项重要举措是罕见地动用外汇基金——政府的主要投资机构和事实上的主权财富基金，传统上用于维护与美元的货币挂钩，以资助基础设施发展。结果需要时间来显现，但政府在经济管理上的一些明显变化已经展现出来，首先是金融中心决定抓住国家发展计划带来的机遇，并与国家更广泛的目标保持一致。其次，为了实现这一目标，香港必须在将资本和土地与正确的投资相匹配方面发挥越来越决定性的作用。这与政府早期仅仅允许自由市场主导的角色大相径庭。尽管放任自流的做法近年来有所演变，但今年的预算及其明确采纳国家目标表明在这一方向上的巩固，政府在经济中扮演了更大的角色。财政司司长陈茂波出人意料地呈现出 290 亿港元（约合 3.7073 亿美元）的合并盈余，并预测未来五年将继续出现盈余。政府内部人士表示，考虑到香港已重新夺回全球筹资市场的首位，股票交易的印花税收入超出预期，这一预测不应被视为过于乐观。事实上，陈在他的支出蓝图中采取了重大举措，以平衡账目并利用关键项目，同时在未来投资上加大赌注。与《南华早报》交谈的分析师表示，这些变化将对这座城市更有利，即使是远离传统融资方式。在 40 多年来的首次举措中，政府将从外汇基金转移 1500 亿港元，相当于去年投资收入的一半，以支持与大陆接壤的北部大都会大型项目及其他基础设施工程。北部大都会计划将 30000 公顷（74132 英亩）的土地转化为新的经济增长引擎基地。未来五年将发行更多债券，预计每年将发行约 1600 亿至 2200 亿港元的债券，高于之前预算中计划的 1500 亿至 1950 亿港元。这将实际上使政府债务与国内生产总值的比率从去年的最高 16.5% 提高到 19.9%。政府的重投资进一步体现在注入创新相关项目的巨额资金上。陈将为三家正在建立的公司各拨出 100 亿港元，以监督北部大都会内的河套香港公园、三田科技园和洪水桥工业园。此外，还拨出 2.2 亿港元用于在元朗设立首个国家制造创新中心，以促进符合国家标准的半导体生产，供航空航天和电动车行业使用。香港中文大学全球经济与金融研究所所长刘柏维表示：“近年来政府在经济中扮演更大角色是与过去的转变，当时香港仍在谈论小政府和大市场，或放任政策。” 他补充说：“虽然我们正在向大陆的做法靠拢，但这也是全球趋势。” 他提到美国政府对半导体行业的重投资。刘表示，中央政府在电动车行业的巨额补贴和基础设施支持取得了成功，该行业现在占全球生产的一半以上。“关键问题是：我们的官员的判断是否准确？” 他说。对于罕见地用基金收入建设基础设施的举措，刘表示这是一个合理的决定，但警告不要将其常态化。“保持香港的货币稳定是重要的。考虑到地缘政治，政府必须确保系统能够处理更多风险，” 他说。但他指出，如果不动用基金的收入，政府将不得不发行更多债券。“那时债务与 GDP 的比率将更高。这将如何影响评级机构的信用评级？” 他说。“现在这座城市的财政储备水平已上升到相当于 10 个月政府支出的金额。这将有助于稳定局势，缓解公众担忧。” 金融界立法会议员陈俊英表示，基金将保持稳健，指出剩余的 4 万亿港元储备。“外汇基金多年来保持了超过 3 万亿港元的稳定。我不相信减少 1500 亿港元会有任何影响，” 陈说。“这绝对是在当前情况下的一次性措施；不应每两年定期转移 1500 亿港元。这仍将取决于外汇基金储备的积累速度。” 法兴银行亚太区高级经济学家吴卓言表示，即使在香港不得不抵御国际投机者的情况下，基金中也会有足够的资本，并补充说中央政府在必要时可以介入。“如果你看看提取的投资收入的规模，那大约占外汇基金的 3.6%，这并不多……政府只是利用其在他人管理下的资金进行投资，但是否会成功则是另一回事，” 吴说。浸会大学副教授麦瑞琼表示，政府已经远离了 “小政府，大市场” 的理念，同时采取更积极的宏观政策，通过战略规划支持产业发展。“政府旨在通过规划帮助产业发展，” 麦说。“这有什么不好？我们所有邻近的竞争地区，如新加坡、杭州和深圳，早已这样做了很长时间。”</p>

恒生指数

南方两倍看多恒指

南方两倍看空恒指

南方一倍看空恒指

安硕恒生指数

盈富基金

南方恒指ETF

<p>香港财政司司长公布了一份强劲的预算，预计有 29 亿港元的盈余，标志着政府在经济中将扮演更为积极的角色。政府计划动用外汇基金用于基础设施项目，包括北部都会区的超级项目。该预算反映了对放任政策的转变，符合国家目标，并增加了政府在创新方面的投资。分析师表示，尽管对债务水平上升和可能对信用评级产生影响的担忧，这些变化可能会使香港受益</p>

<p>Hong Kong’s finance chief on Wednesday lived up to his credentials as a chartered accountant when he produced a surprisingly robust budget, flush with surpluses and full of initiatives to be funded through substantial means at his disposal. One significant initiative is a rare move to dip into the Exchange Fund, the government’s main investment arm and de facto sovereign wealth fund, traditionally used to defend the currency peg to the US dollar, to finance infrastructure development. The results will take time but some unmistakable shifts in government’s management of the economy are on display here, the first of which is the financial hub’s decision to seize the opportunities arising from the national development plan and to align with the country’s wider goals. Secondly, to do this, Hong Kong has to increasingly play a more decisive role in matching capital and land with the right bets. This is a far cry from the government’s earlier role of just allowing the free market to reign supreme. While the laissez-faire approach has evolved in recent years, this year’s budget and its clear adoption of national goals suggest a consolidation in this direction, with the government playing a greater role in the economy. Presenting an earlier-than-expected consolidated surplus of HK$2.9 billion (US$370.73 million) that took many by surprise, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po also forecast surpluses for the next five years. Government insiders said the forecast should not be seen as over-optimistic, given that Hong Kong has reclaimed its ranking as the world’s top fundraising market and the stamp duty income from stock transactions has exceeded expectations. In fact, Chan has made significant moves in his spending blueprint to balance the books and capitalise on key projects while placing bigger bets on future investments. Analysts who talked to the South China Morning Post said the changes would be better for the city, even while moving away from the traditional financing approach. In the first such move in more than 40 years, the government will transfer HK$150 billion from the Exchange Fund, equivalent to about half of its investment income last year, to support the Northern Metropolis megaproject near the border with the mainland and other infrastructure works. The Northern Metropolis is set to convert 30,000 hectares (74,132 acres) of land into bases for new engines of economic growth. More bonds will be issued, with about HK$160 billion to HK$220 billion worth coming annually in the next five years, up from HK$150 billion to HK$195 billion planned in the previous budget. It will in effect raise the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product from a maximum of 16.5 per cent last year to 19.9 per cent. The heavy investment by the government is further evidenced by the substantial amount of funds injected into innovation-related projects. Chan will set aside HK$10 billion each for three companies being established to oversee the Hetao Hong Kong Park, San Tin Technopole and Hung Shui Kiu Industrial Park within the Northern Metropolis. Another HK$220 million is also earmarked to set up the first national manufacturing innovation centre outside the mainland in Yuen Long to facilitate production of semiconductors meeting national standards for use by the aerospace and electric vehicle industries. “The bigger role of government in the economy in recent years is a shift from the past, when Hong Kong was still talking about small government and big market, or the laissez-faire policy,” said Liu Pak-wai, director of the Institute of Global Economics and Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “While we are moving closer to mainland China’s approach, it is also a global trend,” he added, citing the US government’s heavy investment in the semiconductor industry. Liu said the central government had made a success of its substantial subsidies and infrastructural support for the electric vehicle industry, which now accounts for more than half of global production. “The critical question is: is the judgment of our officials spot on?” he said. Commenting on the rare move to build infrastructure with income from the fund, Liu said it was a justified decision but cautioned against making it regular. “It is important to maintain monetary stability in Hong Kong. The government must ensure the system is capable of handling more risks, given the geopolitics,” he said. But he noted that the government would have to issue even more bonds if it did not dip into the income from the fund. “The debt to GDP ratio would then be even higher. How would it affect the credit rating by agencies?” he said. ‘Now the level of the city’s fiscal reserves has gone up to an amount equivalent to 10 months of government expenditure. It will help stabilise the situation and ease public worries.” Finance sector lawmaker Ronick Chan Chun-ying said the fund would remain robust, pointing to the remaining HK$4 trillion in reserves. “The Exchange Fund has maintained stability with over HK$3 trillion in reserves for years. I do not believe reducing it by HK$150 billion would have any impact,” Chan said. “This is definitely a one-off measure under the current circumstances; it should not regularly transfer HK$150 billion every two years. It will still depend on how quickly the Exchange Fund accumulates reserves.” Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist for the Asia-Pacific at Natixis, said there would be enough capital in the fund even in the unlikely event that Hong Kong would have to fight off international speculators, adding that the central government could step in if necessary. “If you look at the size of the investment income taken out, that’s about 3.6 per cent of the Exchange Fund, which is not a lot … the government is simply using its own money that is under others’ management for investment, but whether it would succeed that’s a different matter,” Ng said. Billy Mak Sui-choi, an associate professor at Baptist University, said the government had moved away from the “small government, big market” philosophy, while embracing more proactive macro policies to support industries’ development through strategic planning. “The government aims to help the industry to develop through planning,” Mak said. “Is this something bad? All our neighbouring competitive regions have been doing exactly the same for a long time, such as Singapore, Hangzhou and Shenzhen.” Additional reporting by Matthew Cheng and Ambrose Li</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港财政司司长周三展现了他作为特许会计师的资历，提出了一份出乎意料的强劲预算，盈余充足，并且充满了通过其可支配的重大资金来资助的各项举措。其中一项重要举措是罕见地动用外汇基金——政府的主要投资机构和事实上的主权财富基金，传统上用于维护与美元的货币挂钩，以资助基础设施发展。结果需要时间来显现，但政府在经济管理上的一些明显变化已经展现出来，首先是金融中心决定抓住国家发展计划带来的机遇，并与国家更广泛的目标保持一致。其次，为了实现这一目标，香港必须在将资本和土地与正确的投资相匹配方面发挥越来越决定性的作用。这与政府早期仅仅允许自由市场主导的角色大相径庭。尽管放任自流的做法近年来有所演变，但今年的预算及其明确采纳国家目标表明在这一方向上的巩固，政府在经济中扮演了更大的角色。财政司司长陈茂波出人意料地呈现出 290 亿港元（约合 3.7073 亿美元）的合并盈余，并预测未来五年将继续出现盈余。政府内部人士表示，考虑到香港已重新夺回全球筹资市场的首位，股票交易的印花税收入超出预期，这一预测不应被视为过于乐观。事实上，陈在他的支出蓝图中采取了重大举措，以平衡账目并利用关键项目，同时在未来投资上加大赌注。与《南华早报》交谈的分析师表示，这些变化将对这座城市更有利，即使是远离传统融资方式。在 40 多年来的首次举措中，政府将从外汇基金转移 1500 亿港元，相当于去年投资收入的一半，以支持与大陆接壤的北部大都会大型项目及其他基础设施工程。北部大都会计划将 30000 公顷（74132 英亩）的土地转化为新的经济增长引擎基地。未来五年将发行更多债券，预计每年将发行约 1600 亿至 2200 亿港元的债券，高于之前预算中计划的 1500 亿至 1950 亿港元。这将实际上使政府债务与国内生产总值的比率从去年的最高 16.5% 提高到 19.9%。政府的重投资进一步体现在注入创新相关项目的巨额资金上。陈将为三家正在建立的公司各拨出 100 亿港元，以监督北部大都会内的河套香港公园、三田科技园和洪水桥工业园。此外，还拨出 2.2 亿港元用于在元朗设立首个国家制造创新中心，以促进符合国家标准的半导体生产，供航空航天和电动车行业使用。香港中文大学全球经济与金融研究所所长刘柏维表示：“近年来政府在经济中扮演更大角色是与过去的转变，当时香港仍在谈论小政府和大市场，或放任政策。” 他补充说：“虽然我们正在向大陆的做法靠拢，但这也是全球趋势。” 他提到美国政府对半导体行业的重投资。刘表示，中央政府在电动车行业的巨额补贴和基础设施支持取得了成功，该行业现在占全球生产的一半以上。“关键问题是：我们的官员的判断是否准确？” 他说。对于罕见地用基金收入建设基础设施的举措，刘表示这是一个合理的决定，但警告不要将其常态化。“保持香港的货币稳定是重要的。考虑到地缘政治，政府必须确保系统能够处理更多风险，” 他说。但他指出，如果不动用基金的收入，政府将不得不发行更多债券。“那时债务与 GDP 的比率将更高。这将如何影响评级机构的信用评级？” 他说。“现在这座城市的财政储备水平已上升到相当于 10 个月政府支出的金额。这将有助于稳定局势，缓解公众担忧。” 金融界立法会议员陈俊英表示，基金将保持稳健，指出剩余的 4 万亿港元储备。“外汇基金多年来保持了超过 3 万亿港元的稳定。我不相信减少 1500 亿港元会有任何影响，” 陈说。“这绝对是在当前情况下的一次性措施；不应每两年定期转移 1500 亿港元。这仍将取决于外汇基金储备的积累速度。” 法兴银行亚太区高级经济学家吴卓言表示，即使在香港不得不抵御国际投机者的情况下，基金中也会有足够的资本，并补充说中央政府在必要时可以介入。“如果你看看提取的投资收入的规模，那大约占外汇基金的 3.6%，这并不多……政府只是利用其在他人管理下的资金进行投资，但是否会成功则是另一回事，” 吴说。浸会大学副教授麦瑞琼表示，政府已经远离了 “小政府，大市场” 的理念，同时采取更积极的宏观政策，通过战略规划支持产业发展。“政府旨在通过规划帮助产业发展，” 麦说。“这有什么不好？我们所有邻近的竞争地区，如新加坡、杭州和深圳，早已这样做了很长时间。”</p>
</div>

Budget reveal: government turns matchmaker with stronger hand in shaping economy

- 香港财政司司长提出强劲预算，盈余达 290 亿港元。  
- 罕见动用外汇基金支持基础设施项目，推动经济增长。  
- 政府将发行更多债券，债务与 GDP 比率预计上升至 19.9%。

预算公布：政府以更强的手段在塑造经济中扮演媒人的角色